Michael Nunamaker's Best Bet Sheet

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Best Bets at all tracks          Tuesday September 16, 2014 

Parx Racing

BEST BET in Race 1
Horse Name                  Odds     Pace   Speed 
SASSY SPINSTER               3-2       67     79     

No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.

Finger Lakes

BEST BET in Race 2
Horse Name                  Odds     Pace   Speed 
MIZ SWEET                    6-5       60     81     

Modest speed advantage. Slight back speed advantage. Showed surprise early speed in last.

Mountaineer

BEST BET in Race 3
Horse Name                  Odds     Pace   Speed 
MIRACLE IN MAY               3-2       64     86     

Slight speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage.

Albuquerque

BEST BET in Race 8
Horse Name                  Odds     Pace   Speed 
LADY CONTENDER               9-5       71     94     

The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes.

Fairmont Park

BEST BET in Race 9
Horse Name                  Odds     Pace   Speed 
STORMY COMMANDRESS           7-5       72     85     

Big pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. Huge class drop should help.

Fort Erie

BEST BET in Race 2
Horse Name                  Odds     Pace   Speed 
CHAMPAGNE BUBBLES            7-5       69     76     

Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.

Indiana Downs

BEST BET in Race 1
Horse Name                  Odds     Pace   Speed 
UNBRIDLED GRADUATE           1-1       

Pace advantage. Speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Bid but hung in last.

Zia Park

BEST BET in Race 9
Horse Name                  Odds     Pace   Speed 
GOT ACES                     2-1       60     81     

No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.

Presque Isle Downs

BEST BET in Race 6
Horse Name                  Odds     Pace   Speed 
SWIFTS CHARISMA              2-1       72     83     

Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.

Ten Most Probable Winners


UNBRIDLED GRADUATE at Indiana Downs in race 1 at 1-1 and should win by 4.8 lengths

MIZ SWEET at Finger Lakes in race 2 at 6-5 and should win by 2.8 lengths

CHAMPAGNE BUBBLES at Fort Erie in race 2 at 7-5 and should win by 2.5 lengths

SPARKLING RULER at Fairmont Park in race 1 at 7-5 and should win by 1.6 lengths

STORMY COMMANDRESS at Fairmont Park in race 9 at 7-5 and should win by 3.2 lengths

BULLNOSE BRICK at Finger Lakes in race 5 at 3-2 and should win by 2.7 lengths

MIRACLE IN MAY at Mountaineer in race 3 at 3-2 and should win by 2.5 lengths

SASSY SPINSTER at Parx Racing in race 1 at 3-2 and should win by 2.3 lengths

BEST MEMORIES at Indiana Downs in race 4 at 8-5 and should win by 2.7 lengths

TYDE at Fairmont Park in race 5 at 8-5 and should win by 1.1 lengths


Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.