Belmont Park selections - Michael Nunamaker

Belmont Park      Sunday May 24, 2015


Race #1


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 JUMPIN FRAC FLASH            9-5       70      79      0.00   
 4 OVERTHESPEEDLIMIT            3-1       78      85      1.05   
 3 DYNAMO FLOTILLA              4-1       77      87      1.66   
 6 SUNNY PUZZLE                 11-1      72      80      3.68   
 2 NORTHERN CALL                15-1      72      84      4.29   
Commentary

JUMPIN FRAC FLASH Modest speed advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. OVERTHESPEEDLIMIT Slight pace advantage. DYNAMO FLOTILLA Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! SUNNY PUZZLE Highest earnings per start at today's track. NORTHERN CALL Slight back speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #2


Proficiency: Samples=834 W%=30.8 Net=1.97 Net4+=1.85

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 LAURA'S PATRIOT              3-1       68      85      0.00   
 1 SARATOGA KARAOKE             7-2       66      85      0.12   
 4 SOUTHERN SUNSHINE            7-2       72      85      0.19   
 5 SAMUS                        10-1      69      83      2.53   
 2 SWIMMING (IRE)               10-1      58      80      2.58   
Commentary

LAURA'S PATRIOT No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. SARATOGA KARAOKE Slight back speed advantage. Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. SOUTHERN SUNSHINE Modest pace advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. SAMUS Looks to have an early speed advantage. Huge class raise will be hard. SWIMMING (IRE) Modest speed advantage. Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it.
Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 ROOM FOR ME                  1-1       80      92      0.00   
 3 LA MADRINA                   7-2       79      90      2.50   
 5 FRIVOLITY                    7-1       78      90      4.07   
 2 MEDAGLIA D'ARGENTO           16-1      72      82      5.68   
 4 SKY GIRL                     22-1      65      84      6.12   
Commentary

ROOM FOR ME Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. LA MADRINA Huge class drop should help. FRIVOLITY Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! MEDAGLIA D'ARGENTO No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. SKY GIRL Speed improved in last outing.
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 ROUNDUPTHELUTE               3-1       69      92      0.00   
 3 WELL LAWYERED                7-2       70      93      0.29   
 4 CULPRIT                      7-2       70      88      0.40   
 2 BORSEGGIATORE                9-1       64      83      2.05   
 1 HOWABOUTWE                   11-1      63      79      2.65   
Commentary

ROUNDUPTHELUTE Highest earnings per start at today's distance. WELL LAWYERED Huge speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Two moves in last race. Three consecutive good finishes. CULPRIT Speed improved in last outing. BORSEGGIATORE Huge class raise will be hard. HOWABOUTWE Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=650 W%=31.2 Net=2.25 Net4+=3.12

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 8 JENNYS CREEK                 3-1       77      90      0.00   
 3 POP OF COLOR                 3-1       71      84      0.24   
 7 LAMONTAGNE                   6-1       70      86      1.64   
 2 NO TUNES                     9-1       71      90      2.22   
 1 ON A STAR                    10-1      71      77      2.57   
Commentary

JENNYS CREEK Slight speed advantage. Bid but hung in last. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. POP OF COLOR No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! LAMONTAGNE Looks to have an early speed advantage. ON A STAR Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it.
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 INVENTOR'S GATE              7-2       74      83      0.00   
 9 SPEEDING COMET               9-2       74      68      0.60   
 4 ARCTIC SLOPE                 5-1       77      82      0.90   
 5 MUTASAAWY                    7-1       70      72      1.47   
11 HEAT FLASH                   10-1      78      92      2.08   
Commentary

INVENTOR'S GATE Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. SPEEDING COMET Modest speed advantage. Slight back speed advantage. ARCTIC SLOPE Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. MUTASAAWY Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. HEAT FLASH Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=1661 W%=38.8 Net=2.17 Net4+=2.84

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 ARBITRATOR                   2-1       76      79      0.00   
 7 MONGOLIAN KING               5-1       74      86      2.09   
 9 CLOSING BELL                 8-1       69      64      3.13   
 6 BLUEGRASS RYE                10-1      74      84      3.82   
 8 MISTER MONOLO                20-1      73      67      4.86   
Commentary

ARBITRATOR Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Very impressive workouts. Was closer to the lead in last. Bid but hung in last. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. MONGOLIAN KING A well worked out horse. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. CLOSING BELL I like the workouts. BLUEGRASS RYE You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. MISTER MONOLO Was closer to the lead in last. Showed surprise early speed in last.
Race #8


Proficiency: Samples=834 W%=30.8 Net=1.97 Net4+=1.85

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 DREAMBOAT ANNIE              5-2       73      94      0.00   
 6 MAJESTIC JESSICA             7-1       70      84      1.91   
 8 SONORA                       8-1       70      84      2.19   
 2 MISSY BAY                    8-1       68      81      2.30   
 4 ANNIE WALKER                 11-1      71      83      3.13   
Commentary

DREAMBOAT ANNIE Best speed at this distance and surface. MAJESTIC JESSICA Modest speed advantage. Showed surprise early speed in last. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. SONORA Speed improved in last outing. MISSY BAY Slight back speed advantage. Very impressive workouts. Huge class raise will be hard. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. ANNIE WALKER Speed improved in last outing.
Race #9


Proficiency: Samples=1969 W%=27.8 Net=1.74 Net4+=2.14

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 BATTLE AXE                   5-2       64      82      0.00   
 1 FLYING K C                   7-2       65      75      0.70   
 5 MARY'S IN UTOPIA             9-1       70      86      2.55   
 8 THE GIANT IS LIT             10-1      64      74      2.59   
16 FILLY IDOL                   12-1      71      89      3.21   
Commentary

BATTLE AXE Speed advantage. FLYING K C Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! MARY'S IN UTOPIA Back speed advantage. THE GIANT IS LIT Very impressive workouts. FILLY IDOL Looks to have an early speed advantage.

Best Bet of the day


Race 3 ROOM FOR ME

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.