Churchill Downs - Wednesday May 3, 2017
We burned the midnight oil to come up with some selections for you today at Churchill Downs. Our partners, Winston and The Brain and all the rest are going to help you make some serious money today. Grab a pop or a nice, cold light brew, choose a lucky seat, and buckle up for a fabulous day.
  • Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 3 - #4 DIXIE LOVER (ML=6/1)

  • Today's Live Longshot: Race 9 - #1 FT DAVIS (ML=15/1)
6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 FULL HEART (ML=5/2)
#6 WILD MAN (ML=5/2)
#4 SHARP GAME (ML=6/1)


FULL HEART - This gelding should give a good showing of himself in today's affair.WILD MAN - The 82 recent race speed rating looks good in the TrackMaster PPs.Another way to assign class is earnings per start. This horse has the highest in the field. I think he'll be close at the end.I believe the addition of the 'hood' today will help this gelding focus his attention on racing.SHARP GAME - This rider/trainer duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +77.After the race aboard this horse on March 23rd, the jockey is going to know the gelding much better.Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should be aided by this race's shorter distance.Dropping 6 lbs from last race. Could be a deciding factor today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CONFEDERATE RAGS (ML=2/1), #2 NORTHERN RANGER (ML=6/1)

CONFEDERATE RAGS - He showed not much at all in the last event.not probable that the speed fig he notched on Apr 15th will be good enough in this affair.NORTHERN RANGER - Awfully hard to play this steed when he hasn't been showing any fighting spirit lately.No good fortune for this less than sharp equine in a short distance affair over the last couple of months tells me that this gelding is in a difficult spotgarnered a pedestrian speed rating last time out in a $12,500 Claiming race on April 21st. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that figure.

Top HatThe Brain - SHARP GAME - My statistics have shown that lone pace on the front end provides an excellent chance to the bettor. This mount fits the bill.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #1 FULL HEART to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

1 with [4,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,4,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating: Golden Dollar

#5 KENTUCKY DANCER (ML=2/1)
#3 POR FAVOR (ML=3/1)
#4 ONE SHARP LADY (ML=6/1)


KENTUCKY DANCER - A big drop in Equibase class figure points from her Mar 17th race at Gulfstream Park. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this horse the advantage.The 83 last race rating looks sound on paper.POR FAVOR - Taking a trip down the class scale; has the class to make her presence felt.Don't often see a beneficial return on investment like +57. This jockey/trainer tandem has done well together over the last 12 months.she has the topmost earnings per start. Check out this thoroughbred.ONE SHARP LADY - This animal has increased her speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking note of.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 JULIET FOXTROT (ML=5/2), #1 NATIVE INDY (ML=6/1), #6 SKY PRINCESS (ML=8/1)

JULIET FOXTROT - This filly finished out of the money on Mar 9th and wasn't even close last out either.NATIVE INDY - This animal doesn't have a tenacious state of mind. Quite often finishes close, but no cigar.The fig last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this animal as a possibly overvalued equine.SKY PRINCESS - Hasn't been coming close at all recently.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #4 ONE SHARP LADY to win if we can get at least 6/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 DIXIE LOVER (ML=6/1)


DIXIE LOVER - Getting a weight break of 6 lbs from last race at Oaklawn Park on Mar 23rd. This could make a difference in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 JURY WISE (ML=9/5), #5 GREELY'S STRIKER (ML=5/2), #7 CHEROKEE CALLIE (ML=3/1)

JURY WISE - Last ran on Apr 2nd at Oaklawn Park, finishing ninth. Not likely to get better off of that try in today's event.This probable favorite hasn't raced or worked at the track in awhile. No drills since last race.Don't feel this racer will make an impact in today's event. That last speed fig was disappointing when compared with today's class figure.GREELY'S STRIKER - You think this equine is going to be victorious just because she's always close. Just doesn't win regularly.5/2 is just too low of a reward to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back outings.CHEROKEE CALLIE - Trying to beat this one this time out at the price of 3/1.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #4 DIXIE LOVER on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip
6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $53,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating: Golden Dollar

#2 SEA CLOUD (ML=7/2)
#5 DOXOLOGY (ML=7/2)
#1 ONE TRUE KISS (ML=5/2)


SEA CLOUD - Don't often see a favorable return on investment like +236. This rider/trainer tandem has done well together over the last twelve months.This filly is in fine condition. Finished second on April 13th.DOXOLOGY - This rider/conditioner duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +108.That 96 fig this filly recorded in her last race tells me she's a big time player this time around.ONE TRUE KISS - She has the uppermost earnings per start. Give the once over to this horse.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 IMPROV (ML=4/1), #6 CLAIR DE LUNE (ML=9/2), #4 NORTHERN CONNECT (ML=5/1)

IMPROV - The sixth place result in the last race was not that great.Hasn't hit the board in any sprint races recently. Not probable to see her doing it today either.The extended layoff will probably bring problems for this horse.unlikely that the speed figure she earned on Jan 28th will be good enough in this event.CLAIR DE LUNE - Hard to invest in any horse to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the chance.This filly hasn't had any recent favorable outcomes in short distance events. Difficult to invest in her in this race.NORTHERN CONNECT - The speed ratings are going downward. I'm not betting this less than sharp equine off of that trend.This horse hasn't been hitting the board in either of her last couple of races around the track.

Top HatHal - SEA CLOUD - This racer should be your betting choice today. This filly has posted improving speed figures in her last two contests.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

We're advising skipping the win bets this time

EXACTA WAGERS:

None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,2,5] with [1,2,5] with [1,2,3,5,6] with [1,2,3,5,6] Total Cost: $36
7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 GREELEYS CHARM (ML=5/1)
#3 RUNNING BACK (ML=2/1)
#6 BEACHTOWN BENNY (ML=3/1)


GREELEYS CHARM - Dropping in class rating points from his Apr 15th race at Oaklawn Park. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this one the advantage.This gelding has been trying different distances, but from the looks of things, he ran a nice fig last try at this distance.This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should race well today.RUNNING BACK - This colt should be at the fitness peak, this far into his form cycle.I am keen on that most recent race on April 13th at Keeneland where he ran first.This colt's last rating notched on April 13th is tops in last race speed figs.BEACHTOWN BENNY - This gelding is in good condition, having run a strong race on Apr 8th, finishing first.gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 JOEY B (ML=4/1), #2 BUD'S MR. B (ML=8/1)

JOEY B - Should probably pass on this youngster, he hasn't had enough experience to win this kind of affair.4/1 is not enough of a price to take on most any animal that has run poorly in back to back races around the track.The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this mount as a likely underlay.BUD'S MR. B - This gelding is always around, but just doesn't finish first. Hard to wager on him on the front end.This gelding registered a speed figure in his last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#1 GREELEYS CHARM is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,3,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None
8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 SHEZAPRADO (ML=3/1)
#7 SUMMERTIME SKY (ML=3/1)
#2 I'M INDY HAVIN FUN (ML=10/1)


SHEZAPRADO - Leparoux rode this horse for the first time last time around the track and comes right back in today's race.have to give this magnificent animal a good look. In recent races, has posted the best speed ratings on the turf at this distance.last time around the track was at Gulfstream Park in a race with a class number of 96. Dropping a significant amount in class rating this time out puts her in a solid position today.SUMMERTIME SKY - Ran last time out against a higher rated class of horses at Keeneland. The move to a lower class level should suit her well.In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the turf. This one has the highest average class rating in the bunch.Forgive the out of the top three finish on the off track last time around the track. Under better track conditions, has a good shot in this field.I like this filly. Has the topmost earnings per start (EPS) in here.I'M INDY HAVIN FUN - Santana was aboard this filly last time out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back.When this rider and conditioner combine forces you have to take a look. Santana and Wiggins have been great together.The improved speed figs over the last 3 races is strong. Wiggins drops her in this event conditioned properly and ready to go.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 RUM GO (ML=5/2), #1 FAULT (ML=7/2), #4 ON HER HONOR (ML=8/1)

RUM GO - This pony didn't go to the front and didn't close in the lane last time she ran.FAULT - This filly hasn't been showing me anything in the last couple of outings.ON HER HONOR - 87/77/63, are the decreasing speed figs for this pony.mediocre speed rating in the last race at Turfway Park at 1 mile. Don't think this entrant will improve too much today.Will probably be far back with too much to do down the stretch.

Top HatThe Brain - I'M INDY HAVIN FUN - Pouring over the figures, I can easily see her wiring the field.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #6 SHEZAPRADO to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 MILADY ROCKS (ML=7/2)
#3 AWESOME GAL (ML=7/2)


MILADY ROCKS - She keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start.Have to make this filly a solid contender; she comes off a sharp race on April 22nd.I normally play back maiden winners who were taken down.AWESOME GAL - She finished second April 6th, but was well in front of the third horse.A thoroughbred coming back this rapidly after a sharp effort is a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 FAIRYBROOK (ML=3/1), #1 I'M WITH MILLER (ML=4/1), #7 LADY KAY (ML=8/1)

FAIRYBROOK - This horse hasn't shown much life in the last couple of contests.I'M WITH MILLER - Finished sixth last time out. Would have to perk up to hit the board in today's event.LADY KAY - This less than sharp equine didn't race too well last time out finishing seventh. No reason to expect any improvement in today's race.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #6 MILADY ROCKS to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 97

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 JACK TRIPP (ML=5/1)
#6 PLUG CATCHER (ML=8/1)
#1 LAMU (ML=5/1)
#3 RING NECKED (ML=9/2)
#8 RAGE RIOT (ML=6/1)


JACK TRIPP - This jockey and conditioner have a beneficial ROI when they join forces.This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Rocco gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing.This horse likes to win on different ovals. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call.PLUG CATCHER - This gelding is in fine condition, having run a nice race on April 2nd, finishing second.Saez and Habeeb perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +420 return on investment for a jockey and trainer.Look at this pattern of improvement. 76/97/101 are the last 3 speed figs.LAMU - Several positive 'sensations' attached to this pony and his stable.RING NECKED - Lanerie rode this horse for the initial time in the last race and comes right back in today's contest.Look at this gelding's PP lines. With each event he keeps getting closer.Don't often see a lucrative return on investment like +217. This jockey/conditioner twosome has done well together over the last 12 months.I am keen on that last effort on Apr 15th at Oaklawn Park where he ran first.RAGE RIOT - My handicapping intuition tells me to be ready for this horse in this race

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CROOKED AS CAN BE (ML=4/1), #2 WOODMANS LUCK (ML=5/1), #7 LIEUTENANT SEANY O (ML=6/1)

CROOKED AS CAN BE - This vulnerable equine ran a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure in the last race. He shouldn't improve and will probably lose in today's race running that number.WOODMANS LUCK - You always figure that this horse has a shot to win, but he just misses often.LIEUTENANT SEANY O - No early speed in this field to help set-up his late rush.When looking at today's class rating, he will have to record a better speed figure than last out to vie in this dirt route.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #4 JACK TRIPP to win if you can get odds of 5/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,4,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[4,6] with [1,4,6] with [1,3,4,6,8] with [1,3,4,6,8] Total Cost: $24
8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $51,000 Class Rating: 102

Rating: Golden Dollar

#6 KASSEOPIA (GB) (ML=5/2)
#1 FT DAVIS (ML=15/1)
#9 DERBY CHAMPAGNE (ML=10/1)


KASSEOPIA (GB) - Average Equibase class figure is tops in this bunch. I think that is a big edge for a race on the turf.Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this horse has the highest speed rating for the distance/surface.This horse has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 91 to 99 to 103 right in a row.This colt's last speed figure is strong enough to prove victorious here, I'll play him right back this time around.last time out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. What that tells me is he can close well, and should be right there at the finish in today's contest.FT DAVIS - Don't throw this thoroughbred out due to his last event at Fair Grounds where he finished fourth on the soft turf. Should improve this time around.This horse has a lot of class. A good sign in a race on the grass like we have today.horse didn't hit the board in last race, but did beat half the field, and made up ground in the lane. A slight improvement and this horse should be right there at the end.Ran a fast time for the last quarter on Apr 1st at Fair Grounds. Anything close in this race should get the job done.PP lines show this thoroughbred with 3 improving speed figures. Mena should be on a horse ready to go today.DERBY CHAMPAGNE - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a solid contest on April 12th.Finished off the board last out at Keeneland, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 10/1 makes me think he's got a chance.The ROI when Hernandez and Arnold hook up is out of sight.Had a dominant closing move last out, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar race today, and it's straight to the winner's circle.Look at this pattern of improvement. 85/93/102 are the last three speed figs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SPEIGHT SWIFTLY (ML=2/1), #12 CALMBEFORETHESTORM (ML=5/1), #14 PADEN (ML=5/1)

SPEIGHT SWIFTLY - Hard to put your dough on this speedball. Too much speed in the contest.he probably can't repeat that last stretch run effort and win against this bunch.CALMBEFORETHESTORM - Pace is so influential, and this speedball is going to have a speed battle on his hands.The fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's affair. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced equine.PADEN - 5/1 is too low of a price to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back outings.notched a quite unimpressive speed rating last time around the track in a $35,000 Claiming race on March 31st. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that figure.

Top HatWinston - FT DAVIS - At first glance the last race doesn't look that good, but upon further inspection that race fits right with this group.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #6 KASSEOPIA (GB) on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,6,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,6,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,6,9] with [1,6,9] with [1,2,6,8,9] with [1,2,6,8,9] Total Cost: $36
6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 CHILLING SECRET (ML=5/1)
#3 TARPYS ZIP (ML=5/1)
#10 UNO MAS BRANDY (ML=8/1)
#9 BECAUSE IT'S TIME (ML=9/2)


CHILLING SECRET - This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +57.The 74 most recent race speed figure looks mighty good in black and white.Ranked number 1 in earnings per race entered. Another sign that this animal is the class of the race.TARPYS ZIP - Ran in the last race against a high class rated field at Gulfstream Park. The move down in class ranks should suit him well.UNO MAS BRANDY - Trainer Hartman moves this horse to a lower class level to face a lower class field. Look for a solid effort in this race.BECAUSE IT'S TIME - Trainer Amoss moves this thoroughbred down in class to face a lower level today. Look for a sharp effort given the class advantage.I have to figure that this contest's shorter trip should help this colt.Finished outside the top 3 last out at Fair Grounds, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 9/2 makes me think he's got a chance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 KID PERFECT (ML=4/1), #12 ARODG (ML=6/1)

KID PERFECT - Difficult to support any less than sharp equine in a sprint event if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last two months.ARODG - Morning line of 6/1 make this thoroughbred a pass by my standards.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #4 CHILLING SECRET to win if we can get at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,10] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[3,4,10] with [3,4,10] with [2,3,4,9,10] with [2,3,4,9,10] Total Cost: $36

Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.

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