Churchill Downs selections - Michael Nunamaker

Churchill Downs      Saturday May 23, 2015


Race #1


Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 HALL OF FAME                 3-1       68      82      0.00   
 3 SHARP ART                    7-2       67      88      0.33   
 1 JOURNEY PROUD                4-1       66      80      0.72   
 4 DIVINE REASON                6-1       71      84      1.56   
 6 FOREST BLAZE                 9-1       72      85      2.14   
Commentary

HALL OF FAME Slight back speed advantage. Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! SHARP ART Looks to have an early speed advantage. JOURNEY PROUD Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. DIVINE REASON Highest earnings per start. FOREST BLAZE Modest pace advantage.
Race #2


Proficiency: Samples=4753 W%=34.9 Net=1.99 Net4+=2.14

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 6 TOP CLEARANCE                3-2       71      86      0.00   
 8 STARBOUND                    7-2       72      86      2.12   
 4 NO HIDING PLACE              10-1      no starts       4.56   
 5 COPPER HILL                  14-1      69      80      5.05   
 7 MAGICAL CONNECTION           14-1      no starts       5.24   
Commentary

TOP CLEARANCE Highest earnings per start. STARBOUND Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. NO HIDING PLACE A well worked out horse. COPPER HILL No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 PROUD IMAGE                  2-1       73      79      0.00   
 7 BOLD ICE                     5-1       74      82      1.69   
 1 CALBO                        5-1       75      89      1.79   
 3 WILD BY NATURE               8-1       68      77      2.63   
 6 EIGHT RIDERS                 10-1      72      83      3.12   
Commentary

PROUD IMAGE Modest speed advantage. BOLD ICE Highest earnings per start. CALBO Modest pace advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. WILD BY NATURE No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. EIGHT RIDERS Highest earnings per start at today's track.
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=2835 W%=36.4 Net=1.96 Net4+=2.00

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 PAYNES PRAIRIE               5-2       no starts       0.00   
 2 SHOOT CRAPS                  9-2       no starts       1.40   
 3 JET OVER                     5-1       no starts       1.79   
 5 UNYIELDING STORM             6-1       no starts       2.12   
 6 DOTHAT DANCE                 10-1      no starts       3.37   
Commentary

SHOOT CRAPS Not enough workouts for a first time starter. JET OVER Not enough workouts for a first time starter. UNYIELDING STORM Not enough workouts for a first time starter.
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=872 W%=32.5 Net=2.12 Net4+=2.75

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 RETURN TO GRACE              9-5       76      74      0.00   
 1 C'EST BON                    9-2       70      73      2.08   
 4 ENGLISH SUNSET               7-1       74      73      3.01   
 3 MOUNT KELLETT                12-1      73      85      4.18   
 9 A. P. SONATA                 17-1      68      74      4.64   
Commentary

RETURN TO GRACE Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. C'EST BON Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! ENGLISH SUNSET Bid but hung in last. MOUNT KELLETT Speed improved in last outing. A. P. SONATA Bid but hung in last. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 7 LUSTY GIT YER GUN            5-2       78      88      0.00   
 5 HOLY MACARONI                4-1       67      83      0.79   
 2 SLAVIC PRINCESS              9-2       73      85      1.25   
 4 GIVE ME THY HEART            7-1       63      79      1.82   
 3 NURSE GOODNIGHT              7-1       63      87      2.01   
Commentary

LUSTY GIT YER GUN Big pace advantage. Big speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Huge class raise will be hard. HOLY MACARONI No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. SLAVIC PRINCESS Looks to have an early speed advantage. GIVE ME THY HEART Highest earnings per start at today's distance. NURSE GOODNIGHT The recent 5F workout looks great.
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=1661 W%=38.8 Net=2.17 Net4+=2.84

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 6 SPINNING WHEEL               7-5       81      91      0.00   
 3 TIZ KISMET                   4-1       71      68      2.46   
 2 NATIVE TALENT                8-1       73      78      3.85   
 5 GAMBLERS ROSE                10-1      78      88      4.16   
 1 THE STRIP                    10-1      71      72      4.40   
Commentary

SPINNING WHEEL Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Bid but hung in last. TIZ KISMET Best speed at this distance and surface. NATIVE TALENT Highest average purse value. GAMBLERS ROSE Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. THE STRIP Modest back speed advantage.
Race #8


Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 CALVADOS (ARG)               9-2       85      85      0.00   
 9 PATRIOTICANDPROUD            5-1       80      80      0.21   
 2 COZY KITTEN                  5-1       83      79      0.36   
 5 MAJESTIC HARBOR              6-1       81      81      0.61   
 7 XTRA LUCK                    10-1      78      69      1.54   
 8 GOLDEN SOUL                  14-1      80      75      2.22   
 1 ROYAL BLESSING               15-1      73      62      2.32   
 4 LAYTON REGISTER              18-1      83      85      2.68   
 6 FOR GREATER GLORY            23-1      77      75      3.04   
Commentary

CALVADOS (ARG) Modest pace advantage. Slight speed advantage. Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. PATRIOTICANDPROUD Big back speed advantage. COZY KITTEN Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! MAJESTIC HARBOR Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. XTRA LUCK Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
Race #9


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 TURN UP THE LIGHTS           3-1       69      87      0.00   
 3 THUNDER'S ROLLIN'            4-1       69      83      0.67   
 2 HAT OF JACKS                 9-2       69      86      0.97   
 1 Z BIG APPLE                  5-1       75      87      1.16   
 7 RIDE N' REEL                 15-1      72      85      3.26   
Commentary

TURN UP THE LIGHTS Modest speed advantage. Bid but hung in last. THUNDER'S ROLLIN' Highest earnings per start. HAT OF JACKS Big back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! Z BIG APPLE Big pace advantage. RIDE N' REEL Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #10


Proficiency: Samples=872 W%=32.5 Net=2.12 Net4+=2.75

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 CASH IN MY POCKET            6-5       75      85      0.00   
 4 KILLARNEY ROSE               6-1       70      83      3.29   
 1 GOODBYE N HER EYES           10-1      75      72      4.48   
 6 PLACE DES VOSGES             14-1      69      72      5.28   
11 WILD COVEY                   25-1      69      81      6.14   
Commentary

CASH IN MY POCKET Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. KILLARNEY ROSE Huge class raise will be hard. GOODBYE N HER EYES Long recent workout is a good sign. PLACE DES VOSGES Three consecutive good finishes. WILD COVEY Huge class raise will be hard. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.

Best Bet of the day


Race 10 CASH IN MY POCKET

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.