Churchill Downs selections - Michael Nunamaker

Churchill Downs      Sunday May 24, 2015


Race #1


Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 MAGICAL MOMENT               7-5       77      87      0.00   
 2 POLITICAL JUSTICE            3-1       69      85      1.71   
 3 PETEIZUM                     8-1       75      91      3.68   
 6 VALID COMMANDER              10-1      71      92      4.19   
 5 DEFER HEAVEN                 11-1      79      89      4.26   
Commentary

MAGICAL MOMENT Modest speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. POLITICAL JUSTICE Three consecutive good finishes. PETEIZUM Modest back speed advantage. VALID COMMANDER Highest earnings per start. DEFER HEAVEN Modest pace advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
Race #2


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 SCAMMONY                     9-5       74      89      0.00   
 2 TRAWEE                       3-1       65      79      0.87   
 5 CONSPIRED                    6-1       76      88      2.36   
 4 AUNTY PEARL                  8-1       76      86      2.98   
 6 LITTLE NORWEGIAN             12-1      69      84      3.78   
Commentary

SCAMMONY No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Looks to have an early speed advantage. TRAWEE No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. CONSPIRED Slight pace advantage. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! AUNTY PEARL Modest speed advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 REQUESTADA                   4-5       69      77      0.00   
 7 MISS HUNNY                   4-1       64      83      3.36   
 6 WALTERRA                     15-1      74      81      6.02   
 5 WISH KEEPER                  21-1      73      80      6.56   
 4 SORAYA                       25-1      63      68      7.01   
Commentary

REQUESTADA Big speed advantage. A well worked out horse. MISS HUNNY Highest earnings per start. WALTERRA Slight pace advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. WISH KEEPER Big back speed advantage. Bid but hung in last. SORAYA Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 WITH A TWIST                 5-2       75      88      0.00   
 6 VENUS DE MILO                3-1       78      79      0.35   
 8 GET REAL                     5-1       71      71      1.58   
 4 FANCY HAT                    7-1       76      81      2.06   
 3 LADY SUSAN                   13-1      68      74      3.47   
Commentary

WITH A TWIST Slight speed advantage. A well worked out horse. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. VENUS DE MILO Modest pace advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. GET REAL Highest earnings per start at today's track. FANCY HAT Three consecutive good finishes. LADY SUSAN Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Huge class raise will be hard. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 6 VICTORY COURTS               3-1       75      77      0.00   
 7 CHALICE                      9-2       67      74      0.79   
 1 BOB'S GONE WILD              9-2       68      73      0.99   
 3 PRECIPICE TRAIL              6-1       69      69      1.31   
 5 SLICK PARDONED ME            9-1       70      72      2.19   
Commentary

VICTORY COURTS Big pace advantage. Bid but hung in last. CHALICE Modest speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. BOB'S GONE WILD Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! PRECIPICE TRAIL Huge class drop should help. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! SLICK PARDONED ME Bid but hung in last.
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 8 MOVE THE CHAINS              5-2       70      77      0.00   
 1 FRACULA                      3-1       73      79      0.56   
 1 JUMPIN FRAC FLASH            9-2       70      79      1.36   
 2 SERGIOS PRIDE                9-1       74      78      2.65   
 6 MCMULLEN COUNTY              17-1      65      69      3.85   
Commentary

MOVE THE CHAINS Slight speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. FRACULA Highest earnings per start at today's track. JUMPIN FRAC FLASH Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. MCMULLEN COUNTY The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 WIN QUIETLY                  5-2       62      61      0.00   
 6 INCLUDE INDYCAT              7-1       70      75      2.01   
 1 OTIS MY MAN                  7-1       73      80      2.13   
 4 BONESPRINGS                  10-1      66      77      2.76   
 5 FUJITA FIVE                  10-1      70      78      2.82   
Commentary

WIN QUIETLY Speed improved in last outing. INCLUDE INDYCAT Modest speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. OTIS MY MAN Slight back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! BONESPRINGS Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #8


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 IRISH YOU WELL               7-2       81      81      0.00   
 7 HAZARDS OF LOVE              7-2       78      80      0.04   
 5 C J'S AWESOME                7-2       77      81      0.25   
 1 TARPY'S SURPRISE             7-1       74      80      1.42   
 3 ACES HIGH                    12-1      78      81      2.54   
Commentary

IRISH YOU WELL Big pace advantage. Very impressive workouts. HAZARDS OF LOVE Modest speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. C J'S AWESOME A well worked out horse. Bid but hung in last. TARPY'S SURPRISE No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. ACES HIGH Showed surprise early speed in last. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #9


Proficiency: Samples=872 W%=32.5 Net=2.12 Net4+=2.75

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
11 GRAND SKY                    4-1       79      87      0.00   
16 THATCHER STREET              7-1       73      71      1.05   
 8 DREAMING OF GOLD             7-1       69      79      1.07   
 2 THE BIG APE                  10-1      77      0       1.64   
 3 CZAR                         10-1      77      82      1.81   
Commentary

GRAND SKY Pace advantage. Speed advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. THATCHER STREET Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. DREAMING OF GOLD Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. THE BIG APE Long recent workout is a good sign. CZAR Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #10


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 LASSOFTHEMOHICANS            3-1       72      86      0.00   
11 KATHBALLU                    7-2       69      84      0.42   
 5 CONQUEST ECLIPSE             9-2       69      88      0.89   
 9 PLEASANT TALES               12-1      66      80      3.00   
 7 FLEET BERTIE                 15-1      79      91      3.30   
Commentary

LASSOFTHEMOHICANS Modest speed advantage. Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. KATHBALLU Showed surprise early speed in last. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! CONQUEST ECLIPSE Huge class drop should help. PLEASANT TALES Bid but hung in last. FLEET BERTIE Big pace advantage.

Best Bet of the day


Race 3 REQUESTADA

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.