Emerald Downs selections - Michael Nunamaker

Emerald Downs      Sunday May 3, 2015


Race #1


Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 PERCY'S BLUFF                9-5       73      96      0.00   
 3 HE'S DREAMY                  5-2       62      86      0.91   
 4 RELATIVELY FAST              5-1       70      91      2.22   
 2 GO HENRY                     10-1      64      68      3.83   
 5 LUCKY SANCHEZ                13-1      64      85      4.30   
Commentary

PERCY'S BLUFF Modest pace advantage. HE'S DREAMY Modest speed advantage. Huge back speed advantage. Huge class drop should help. RELATIVELY FAST Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. GO HENRY I like the workouts. LUCKY SANCHEZ Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #2


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 THREE POINT LUKE             5-2       64      89      0.00   
 6 MASTER GAME                  7-2       66      89      0.86   
 5 EXPENSES PAID                5-1       60      87      1.78   
 4 CLEMKADIDDLEHOPPER           9-1       59      84      2.92   
 1 KIRKOROTH                    9-1       59      85      2.96   
Commentary

THREE POINT LUKE Slight speed advantage. MASTER GAME Modest pace advantage. Big back speed advantage. EXPENSES PAID Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! CLEMKADIDDLEHOPPER Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 VISTARELLA                   5-2       66      92      0.00   
 6 LAFF ITUP FUZZBALL           3-1       67      90      0.58   
 1 KATSTHOUGHTS                 3-1       65      91      0.62   
 5 APHIEMI                      10-1      57      86      3.18   
 4 ONE SMART GIRL               18-1      57      78      4.14   
Commentary

VISTARELLA Best speed at this distance and surface. LAFF ITUP FUZZBALL Modest pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. KATSTHOUGHTS Slight speed advantage. APHIEMI Highest earnings per start. ONE SMART GIRL Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 COMMANDER LUTE               6-5       67      85      0.00   
 6 ON THE TURN                  7-2       77      97      2.65   
 5 PAKOKOHE                     9-1       70      90      4.89   
 2 HOT BOBBY                    14-1      no starts       5.87   
 3 SWEET LADY SADIE             14-1      no starts       5.90   
Commentary

COMMANDER LUTE Best speed at this distance and surface. ON THE TURN Tons the best. Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. PAKOKOHE Class raise presents a challange.
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 COME ON COZZENE              7-5       75      99      0.00   
 6 NIFTYS TEE TIME              3-1       71      93      1.52   
 4 FORBIDDEN KEE                6-1       68      93      2.84   
 7 MEAN EMMA JEAN               11-1      70      88      4.24   
 5 MUSICAL DELIGHT              12-1      66      92      4.39   
Commentary

COME ON COZZENE Slight pace advantage. Slight speed advantage. Showed surprise early speed in last. NIFTYS TEE TIME Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! FORBIDDEN KEE Highest earnings per start at today's track. MEAN EMMA JEAN Big back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! MUSICAL DELIGHT Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 7 WON WON OH FIVE              2-1       74      83      0.00   
 3 IT'S OUR PLEASURE            7-2       70      81      0.94   
 5 EPIC ELECTORATE              5-1       75      80      1.90   
 1 DOG                          10-1      73      87      3.36   
 4 SHOWMETHEMONEYJIM            16-1      72      87      4.12   
Commentary

WON WON OH FIVE Modest speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. IT'S OUR PLEASURE Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. EPIC ELECTORATE Slight pace advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Four consecutive decreases in speed rating!! DOG Bid but hung in last. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. SHOWMETHEMONEYJIM Showed surprise early speed in last.
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 6 WAR WIZARD                   8-5       75      96      0.00   
 4 SMART COPY                   3-1       71      92      1.11   
 1 SOUTHERN SOLUTION            7-1       64      92      2.86   
 2 DYNAMO DIXIE                 8-1       73      88      3.20   
 5 UPTOWN BIG BROWN             11-1      69      79      3.76   
Commentary

WAR WIZARD Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. SOUTHERN SOLUTION Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. DYNAMO DIXIE No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. UPTOWN BIG BROWN Speed improved in last outing.
Race #8


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 MR. TOP KAT                  7-5       74      95      0.00   
 1 CALCULATED CHAOS             3-1       72      93      1.29   
 2 PERFECT NIGHT                9-2       73      93      2.20   
 3 ST NICHOLAS BECKY            13-1      80      100     4.42   
 4 SONGANDABULLET               28-1      61      90      5.54   
Commentary

MR. TOP KAT Big speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. CALCULATED CHAOS Very impressive workouts. Was closer to the lead in last. PERFECT NIGHT The long workout makes me feel good about this one. ST NICHOLAS BECKY Big pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. SONGANDABULLET The recent 5F workout looks great.
Race #9


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 BWANA BE GONE                5-2       75      90      0.00   
 5 ADVANCEMENT                  7-2       68      93      0.68   
 4 SUESAWME                     9-2       74      91      1.18   
 6 SWISS EXPLOIT                5-1       68      84      1.37   
 1 FREE RETURN                  19-1      72      87      3.93   
Commentary

BWANA BE GONE Slight pace advantage. Big back speed advantage. ADVANCEMENT Two moves in last race. SUESAWME The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. SWISS EXPLOIT Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! FREE RETURN Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.

Best Bet of the day


Race 4 COMMANDER LUTE

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.