Emerald Downs selections - Michael Nunamaker

Emerald Downs      Sunday May 24, 2015


Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 COMMANDER LUTE               1-1       69      92      0.00   
 2 ON THE TURN                  6-1       74      94      4.02   
 6 HOODSLIDE                    7-1       71      94      4.40   
 5 WANAGI                       15-1      71      89      6.24   
 7 TIM TIM TIM                  18-1      no starts       6.68   
Commentary

COMMANDER LUTE Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. ON THE TURN Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. WANAGI Class drop should help. TIM TIM TIM Very impressive workouts.
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 PAKOKOHE                     3-1       72      96      0.00   
 1 PRINCE OF SILVER             7-2       72      89      0.33   
 5 SPIT AND SHINE               9-2       75      97      0.79   
 2 MY CHIEF                     5-1       63      98      0.95   
 3 WESTLEY                      6-1       72      93      1.36   
Commentary

PAKOKOHE Modest back speed advantage. PRINCE OF SILVER The long workout makes me feel good about this one. SPIT AND SHINE Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. MY CHIEF Looks to have an early speed advantage. Huge class raise will be hard. WESTLEY Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=4753 W%=34.9 Net=1.99 Net4+=2.14

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 CITIZEN KITTY                9-5       73      94      0.00   
 7 WICKEDIZASWICKEDUZ           5-2       74      85      0.61   
 1 LET IT FLO                   8-1       67      92      3.37   
 2 PRAY FOR GOLD                10-1      no starts       4.15   
 3 CALIENTE GOLD                19-1      no starts       5.27   
Commentary

CITIZEN KITTY Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. The recent 5F workout looks great. WICKEDIZASWICKEDUZ Pace advantage. The recent 5F workout looks great. Bid but hung in last. LET IT FLO The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Looks to have an early speed advantage. PRAY FOR GOLD Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it.
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 MUSICAL CHOICE               3-1       66      88      0.00   
 8 READY SET JET                3-1       68      92      0.16   
 6 BADROCK CANYON               6-1       64      87      1.55   
 2 GAVINATOR                    8-1       67      84      2.17   
 5 VICTOR VICTORIAN             8-1       69      92      2.39   
Commentary

MUSICAL CHOICE Back speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. READY SET JET Looks to have an early speed advantage. BADROCK CANYON Speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. GAVINATOR Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. VICTOR VICTORIAN Pace advantage.
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 7 VERTICAL LIFT                9-5       77      87      0.00   
 2 AMONG THE STARS              4-1       79      95      1.55   
 4 ACUTE                        5-1       70      87      2.13   
 1 KRAZY FOR KUGEL              11-1      73      83      3.66   
 5 EMERALDCITY KITTEN           15-1      78      85      4.13   
Commentary

VERTICAL LIFT Modest speed advantage. Slight back speed advantage. I like the workouts. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. AMONG THE STARS Modest pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. ACUTE Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. KRAZY FOR KUGEL No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. EMERALDCITY KITTEN Speed improved in last outing.
Race #8


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 RITZY TAGS                   3-1       69      93      0.00   
 7 LUCKY ECHO                   7-2       70      94      0.50   
 8 FINE RED WINE                6-1       69      93      1.43   
 6 ZIPPINAROUNDTOWN             6-1       60      84      1.44   
 1 NEARLYCOCKTAILTIME           10-1      71      91      2.32   
Commentary

RITZY TAGS Three consecutive good finishes. LUCKY ECHO Big speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. FINE RED WINE Highest earnings per start at today's distance. ZIPPINAROUNDTOWN Three consecutive good finishes. NEARLYCOCKTAILTIME Highest earnings per start.
Race #9


Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 O B HARBOR                   5-2       75      100     0.00   
 1 PRIME ENGINE                 3-1       74      91      0.50   
 4 GLORIA'S ANGELO              9-2       72      90      1.44   
 7 FOOLED AGAIN                 6-1       72      96      1.79   
 6 SENNA                        20-1      68      71      4.20   
 2 DAYTONA BEACH                28-1      75      96      4.70   
 3 PRIVATE BOSS                 33-1      68      94      4.96   
 8 MOBY                         73-1      74      96      6.11   
Commentary

O B HARBOR Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Huge class raise will be hard. PRIME ENGINE Big back speed advantage. The recent 5F workout looks great. Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. GLORIA'S ANGELO The recent 5F workout looks great. FOOLED AGAIN Slight speed advantage. Huge class raise will be hard. SENNA Class raise presents a challange.
Race #10


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 6 CAMILLE                      2-1       71      94      0.00   
 5 I THINK SO                   4-1       68      87      1.50   
 3 GUINEVERE'S FINALE           5-1       70      96      1.83   
 2 MYLAST SWEET PEA             6-1       67      94      2.08   
 1 DECATUR PRINCESS             8-1       63      87      2.58   
Commentary

CAMILLE Slight pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. I THINK SO Slight back speed advantage. Four consecutive decreases in speed rating!! GUINEVERE'S FINALE Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. MYLAST SWEET PEA Huge class drop should help. DECATUR PRINCESS Speed improved in last outing.
Race #11


Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 LUCK OUT                     5-2       68      89      0.00   
 7 HUGS AND KISSES              3-1       68      91      0.65   
 1 QUIBBLE                      7-2       68      89      0.85   
 2 RAESBEAUTIFUL HOPE           16-1      66      88      4.07   
 4 ANDIAMO DEB                  25-1      60      89      4.87   
Commentary

LUCK OUT Was closer to the lead in last. Showed surprise early speed in last. HUGS AND KISSES Was closer to the lead in last. QUIBBLE Pace advantage. Speed advantage. RAESBEAUTIFUL HOPE Was closer to the lead in last. Showed surprise early speed in last. ANDIAMO DEB Back speed advantage.

Best Bet of the day


Race 3 COMMANDER LUTE

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.