Turf Club Analysts
Champagne
Golden Gate - Sunday, May 24, 2015

We're all here for a day of racing at Golden Gate. Climb into your saddle and ride along side as we lead you through the challenge of picking horses. We will be making a number of suggestions below which should give you another look on today's action other than you might get by simply looking through the program. While we do most of the exertion, you may have to make some modifications based on conditions at Golden Gate. Also, we don't do this all alone. Some comrades will chime in with their comments below as well and at the core, we combine our experience and the data that TrackMaster produces to make our selections. Good luck!

Cash

Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 3 - #6 TIGHT LINES (ML=1/1)

Today's Live Longshot: Race 5 - #5 EL REY FERNANDO (ML=15/1)


Bar

Golden Gate - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 92

Rating: Golden Dollar

#4 PECOS BUD (ML=4/1)
#2 RED N BLACK ATTACK (ML=5/2)
#1 EL TIO FERNANDO (ML=9/2)


PECOS BUD - Lopez and DeLima perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +78 return on investment for a rider and trainer. This gelding is in fine form. Ended up third on May 14th. I do like the fact this gelding is back in a race so quickly. This gelding gets a weight break of -5 lbs from last race. This should help right here. RED N BLACK ATTACK - This thoroughbred could be tough in today's race, especially since Hernandez rode last out and now should be better acquainted with this one. This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should run well today. This gelding recorded a good speed rating of 90 in his last race. That speed rating should be high enough to prove victorious this time out. This gelding is tops in EPS (earnings per start). Take a good look at this one in the paddock. Look at this pattern of improvement. 83/85/90 are the last 3 Equibase speed figs. EL TIO FERNANDO - Rivera brings him back again. I advocate you stay with this hot gelding. That 90 fig this gelding notched in his last race tells me he's a big time player in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 HIMALAYA STAR (ML=2/1), #5 WHILLY PINK (ML=7/2),

HIMALAYA STAR - This closer should have a rough go of it to be along in time with an absence of pace in this race. WHILLY PINK - This horse likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually finish on top. Don't play in the top spot.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #4 PECOS BUD to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6

Bar

Golden Gate - Race #2 - Post: 1:14pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 97

Rating: Golden Dollar

#4 BLU JON (ML=8/5)
#2 JAKOB'S MAGIC (ML=5/2)
#1 SLAMMER TIME (ML=4/1)


BLU JON - This gelding is a gem of consistency, almost always in-the-money. Just see his latest fig, 92. That one fits well in this bunch. JAKOB'S MAGIC - This rider and trainer's horses have been producing a beneficial return on investment. This one absolutely loves this track. All his wins have been here at Golden Gate. This thoroughbred coming off a good try in the last month or so is a contender in my humble opinion. Carrying 5 pounds less this race. Trainer has him in a good spot. SLAMMER TIME - This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Thomas. Better watch out for this angle. This gelding is at the same 1 1/16 miles distance he won at on February 21st, which was at a higher class level than today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ON THE KEY (ML=7/2), #5 CAVA KAVIA (ML=8/1),

ON THE KEY - Would have to move up off that ninth place finish last time to make an impact here. CAVA KAVIA - In the last affair this steed finished sixth. Doesn't look good for his chances this time around. When looking at today's class rating, he will have to garner a much better speed figure than last time out to be competitive in this dirt route.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BLU JON - I like to check out the TrackMaster Platinum PPs to look for the top entrant in earnings per start. This horse looks good to me so I'm making a prime investment on him.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Save the win money to bet more in another race

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6

Bar

Golden Gate - Race #3 - Post: 1:44pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating: Golden Dollar

#6 TIGHT LINES (ML=1/1)
#4 LUCKY ILLUSION (ML=12/1)


TIGHT LINES - This filly is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. McCanna brings her right back. I advocate you stick with this strong filly. The ROI when Lopez and McCanna team up is out of sight. This animal may have too much power on the grass for the rest of the field. At the top of the lane, she could put these away. I like this filly. Has the top earnings per start in today's event. LUCKY ILLUSION - My experienced judgement tells me to be on the alert for this horse in this clash

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 IMPERIAL BADGER (ML=5/2), #3 CATS CONTESSA (ML=3/1),

IMPERIAL BADGER - Doesn't look to have enough good qualities to support the price. CATS CONTESSA - This questionable contender didn't do much last time out finishing fifth. Don't see any hint of improvement in today's event. Don't believe this less than sharp equine will make an impact in today's race. That last speed fig was disappointing when compared with today's class figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #4 LUCKY ILLUSION to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Golden Gate - Race #4 - Post: 2:17pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 101

Rating: Golden Dollar

#6 PHOTO SHOPPED (ML=9/5)
#2 KOCHEES (ML=5/1)
#3 AWESOME SILVER (ML=6/1)


PHOTO SHOPPED - 'Russell Muscle''s agent must like anytime Martin gives them a mount; winning pct together is tremendous. Martin brings him back again. I advise you stick with this strong gelding. KOCHEES - Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a good contest on May 2nd. This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should race well today. Lower weight carried of -7. In my opinion, a movement of 5 is important, so this gelding falls into this category. You have to consider this beautiful animal in today's race. He has been claimed out of his last two contests. AWESOME SILVER - Jock jumped on this gelding's back for the first time on May 8th. Should be in tune with the animal even better this time around. This gelding is in good form. Finished third on May 8th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TOO FAST TO PASS (ML=5/2), #5 BIG JOHNNY D (IRE) (ML=7/2),

TOO FAST TO PASS - This gelding hasn't had any recent good results in short distance events. I find it hard to wager on him in this event. Tough to wager on any horse to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the risk. Don't feel this steed will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed fig was mediocre when compared with today's class rating. BIG JOHNNY D (IRE) - Should have at least finished in the money in the last sixty days in a sprint event to be any kind of value at nominal odds in a sprint.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#2 KOCHEES is going to be the play if we are getting 5/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

Bar

Golden Gate - Race #5 - Post: 2:51pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 99

Rating: Golden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 SCHILLING (ML=7/2)
#5 EL REY FERNANDO (ML=15/1)
#2 GNARLY DUDE (ML=6/1)


SCHILLING - Got to appreciate a good work horse. This gelding's last work was second fastest of the day for the distance. Should do well right here. Weight shift of -5 from January 2nd race at Golden Gate. This thoroughbred ran out of the money at Golden Gate last time around the track on the soft turf. He should improve right here on a non-sloppy track. EL REY FERNANDO - Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. GNARLY DUDE - Have to make this gelding a win candidate; he comes off a strong race on May 9th. You'll be generating money left and right by turning your betting money onto this jockey/conditioner combination. Each one of this gelding's recent finish positions has been progressively better. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figures (90-94-98) make this horse a dominant contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BARREL KNOT (ML=6/5), #3 NEXT SPEAKER (ML=5/2),

BARREL KNOT - This gelding hasn't had any positive outcomes in sprint affairs in the last sixty days. Finished third in his most recent effort with a common speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this group. NEXT SPEAKER - This gelding hasn't had any in the money results in sprint contests in the last sixty days.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 EL REY FERNANDO to win at post-time odds of 9/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[2,5,6] with [2,5,6] with [1,2,3,5,6] with [1,2,3,5,6] Total Cost: $36

Bar

Golden Gate - Race #6 - Post: 3:24pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: Golden Dollar

#1 JUST AFTER SUNSET (ML=2/1)
#3 ROMANCEMEDISCRETLY (ML=5/1)
#7 HOW NOW (ML=6/1)


JUST AFTER SUNSET - When this jockey and conditioner combine forces you have to take a look. Gomez and Trujillo have been terrific together. A repeat of that latest effort on May 9th where she recorded a fig of 82 looks high enough to score in this race. ROMANCEMEDISCRETLY - To play a racer off morning activity, you have to know when to tell if a horse is fit. The fact that this mare worked recently at longer distance is a positive angle. Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone speedy sort facing sluggish sorts today. HOW NOW - Coming off a sixth place finish at Golden Gate, some may skip this horse. I'm not. She just missed hitting the show spot, and has pretty good morning odds today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 THE GANG AND I (ML=5/2), #5 FLYING WITH SULLY (ML=4/1),

THE GANG AND I - Couldn't close ground at any point on May 1st. Hard to bet on this time at the expected odds. FLYING WITH SULLY - Difficult to put your cash on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as regularly as this thoroughbred does. Don't think this steed will make an impact in today's event. That last speed rating was substandard when compared with today's class figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #3 ROMANCEMEDISCRETLY on top if we're getting at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,3,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Golden Gate - Race #7 - Post: 3:57pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 99

Rating: Golden Dollar

#7 SANDOR (GB) (ML=5/2)
#5 FOOLHARDY (ML=3/1)
#4 THE GREAT CAPER (ML=2/1)


SANDOR (GB) - A campaigner coming back this promptly after a sharp race is a good signal. Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this thoroughbred has the highest Equibase speed figure for the dist-surf. The horse with the top average class rating in turf events is usually a solid play. This campaigner fits the bill. FOOLHARDY - You'll be generating money left and right by turning your gambling cash onto this rider/handler combination. THE GREAT CAPER - That 97 fig this gelding notched in his last event tells me he's a main player this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BOMB SITE (ML=6/1),

BOMB SITE - The speed figure last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced equine. Awfully hard to bet on this horse when he hasn't been showing any signs of life of late. A 'bounce' is likely to happen for this horse in today's event. May rebound next time.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Just say 'no' to the win bets this race

EXACTA WAGERS:

None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [4,5,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

Bar

Golden Gate - Race #8 - Post: 4:30pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,400 Class Rating: 66

Rating: Golden Dollar

#6 ADIOS PELOTA (ML=9/5)
#1 BEAUTIFUL DESERT (ML=4/1)
#5 LEWKODONIA (ML=8/1)


ADIOS PELOTA - It looks like Russell 'The Muscle' Baze had to learn about this filly on May 3rd when riding her for the first time. Back aloft again today. A horse coming back this soon after a nice effort is a good signal. This animal has increased her Equibase speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at. The recent figure of 68 is the highest last race speed figure in the group. BEAUTIFUL DESERT - Last time, was entered in a race at Golden Gate in a race with a class number of 72. Dropping significantly in Equibase class figure today puts her in a solid position today. LEWKODONIA - Terrero comes to saddle up after getting to know the mare in the last contest. This mare should be in fine condition, this far into her form cycle. I just may give this one a good shot. Should rebound off last race where she did run out of the top three, but was within five lengths at the end.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 VEGAS LUCK (ML=3/1), #8 KAT'S HURRICANE (ML=7/2),

VEGAS LUCK - Should have at least finished in the money in the last couple of months in a short distance event to be worth it at modest odds in a sprint. The speed figure last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this racer as a questionable challenger. KAT'S HURRICANE - The speed ratings are going downward. I'm not investing on this racer off of that trend. The Brain always cautions me to stay away from horses in sprint events that haven't hit the board in sprint contests recently.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #1 BEAUTIFUL DESERT on the nose if you can get odds of 9/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Golden Gate - Race #9 - Post: 5:02pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 LADY HARBINGER (ML=4/1)
#5 AZIA BROWN (ML=6/1)


LADY HARBINGER - Looking at this filly's running lines, I see she's almost always in the money. This filly is in fine condition, having run a nice race on May 2nd, finishing third. This horse is going to improve off of her last event on May 2nd. She showed good mid-race velocity in the last race before running evenly down the lane. AZIA BROWN - Filly's last work was second fastest of the day for the distance. Trying to win for the first time moving from a turf race to the main track. I think Patterson will have her fit and ready for today's contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 TABOR'S HARMONY (ML=3/1), #3 CLASSY LADY LIZ (ML=5/1), #6 MICROBURST (ML=6/1),

TABOR'S HARMONY - Don't think this racer has what it takes to be victorious this time out. CLASSY LADY LIZ - When checking today's Equibase class figure, she will have to garner a much better speed rating than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt sprint. MICROBURST - No wager value on this thoroughbred at the likely odds of 6/1.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #4 LADY HARBINGER to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/5 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

4 with 5 with [1,2,11] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:

[4,5] with [4,5] with [1,2,8,11] with [1,2,8,11] with [1,2,8,11] Total Cost: $48




Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.

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