Lone Star - Friday, May 8, 2015
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Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 2 - #2 BAILEYS BLING (ML=5/1)
Today's Live Longshot: Race 2 - #6 BIG CITY KITTY (ML=20/1)
Lone Star - Race #1 - Post: 6:35pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 84
#6 AFOOLSBROKENHEART (ML=3/1)
#3 SCOOTER'S CHOICE (ML=5/2)
#4 BELLA PAELLA (ML=2/1)
AFOOLSBROKENHEART - This filly is almost always on the board. This filly has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Calhoun. Better beware of this angle. That 81 fig this filly notched in her last event tells me she's a key player this time out. The Apr 11th affair at Lone Star was at a class level of (92). Dropping down in class significantly, so she should be in a good position to win.
SCOOTER'S CHOICE - This jock/trainer duo has been producing a high win percentage, right around 30. Taking a drop in class rating points from her Apr 11th race at Lone Star. Based on that information, I will give this horse the edge.
BELLA PAELLA - This rider and conditioner have a favorable ROI when they are put together. I have to like this filly's likelihood of winning at the shorter trip.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BE MY CAROLINE (ML=4/1),
#5 SWING IT DISH (ML=6/1),
BE MY CAROLINE - The move down the homestretch on Mar 28th indicated to me that this horse will have a tough go of it versus this bunch of stiffer competition. Earned a quite unimpressive fig last time around the track in the Rainbow Miss on Mar 28th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that rating.
SWING IT DISH - Tough to bet on any thoroughbred to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the risk.
#6 AFOOLSBROKENHEART is going to be the play if we are getting 7/2 or better
Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6
Lone Star - Race #2 - Post: 7:03pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 52
#2 BAILEYS BLING (ML=5/1)
#6 BIG CITY KITTY (ML=20/1)
BAILEYS BLING - I figure Bryant is making a good move here. This filly can only benefit from the shorter trip. Jock hops right back aboard after getting to know the mount by riding last time around the track. That's always a good tip. I like this filly. Has the highest (EPS) earnings per start in here. That 50 fig this filly garnered in her last race tells me she's a key player this time out.
BIG CITY KITTY - The April 23rd clash at Lone Star was at a class level of (64). Dropping to a lower class rank significantly, so she should be in a good place. Ran against 'open' company last time around the track, in with state breds today. Sub-par try last race out at Lone Star was due to the off-going (she ran eleventh). Should do much better today under better track conditions.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 LOOP TWENTY (ML=7/5),
#4 RAIN PLEASE (ML=9/5),
#3 ELLE KAY (ML=6/1),
LOOP TWENTY - 7/5 is just too low of a price to take on this participant.
RAIN PLEASE - Doesn't seem to have enough good aspects to warrant the reward.
ELLE KAY - When checking today's class figure, she will have to record a much better speed fig than in the last race to vie in this dirt sprint.
#2 BAILEYS BLING is going to be the play if we are getting 8/5 or better
2 with 6 with [4,7,8] Total Cost: $3
Lone Star - Race #3 - Post: 7:31pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 78
#3 WHIMISCAL MISS (ML=7/2)
#4 KITTEN'S PLAN (ML=2/1)
#7 LADY BUGATTI (ML=10/1)
WHIMISCAL MISS - You have to like that most recent race speed figure, 78, which is the best latest race figure of this field. Took a drop in class last out, and keeps in that lower class right here in this race. A good sign this animal is comfortable and ready to go. Went a route in a $25,000 Claiming race at Sam Houston in the last race from an outside post. Moving to the inside at a similar distance should help this filly. Leading into this race, this horse has garnered three Equibase speed figs that are equal to or higher than today's class rating. An indication she should compete well right here.
KITTEN'S PLAN - This is the only runner in today's event that has won over this turf course. Have to give this filly a good shot. Ran a good effort last out within the last 30 days.
LADY BUGATTI - This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Asmussen. You have to like this horse changing from dirt to turf for the first time. She finished on the board on a sluggish dirt track on March 3rd. A sign she may take to turf. I'm focusing on the class of this race horse, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. I like horses that return to a similar class level after dropping at least five class points like this one did in the last race. I believe she'll be competitive at this level.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 T. MAG (ML=5/2),
#2 DIVINE SOUL (ML=8/1),
#5 FLASH SONDAY'S (ML=8/1),
T. MAG - That was just not a very good showing in the last event. Be apprehensive of this three-year old versus older. Will do better with more experience.
DIVINE SOUL - Didn't end up on the board on Feb 6th at Sam Houston. Followed it up with another less than stellar effort. Finished fourth in her most recent race with a most unsatisfactory speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field.
FLASH SONDAY'S - A pattern of decreasing speed figs 70/64/59 for this steed. This filly raced better than average on Apr 9th ending up first, but hasn't even visited the track since then. Not really a good sign. Substandard speed rating in the last race at Evangeline at 1 mile. Don't think this vulnerable equine will improve too much today.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - KITTEN'S PLAN - I like to check out the TrackMaster Platinum PPs to look for the top horse in earnings per start. This horse looks good to me so I'm making a prime bet on her.
#3 WHIMISCAL MISS is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better
Box [3,4,7] Total Cost: $6
[3,4,7] with [3,4,7] with [2,3,4,6,7] with [2,3,4,6,7] Total Cost: $36
Lone Star - Race #4 - Post: 7:59pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 75
#5 SCORPIAN JACK (ML=2/1)
#1 MARGARITA BIBB (ML=6/1)
#7 WITT'S DEMON (ML=12/1)
#6 CAPTAIN QUALITY (ML=5/1)
SCORPIAN JACK - I am keen on that last race on Apr 17th at Lone Star where he finished second. I have to like this gelding's chances to win at the shorter distance. This animal wins a lot of cash per race. Tops in this event.
MARGARITA BIBB - When this rider and conditioner join forces you have to take a look. Ruiz and Bustamante have been wonderful together. This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's race is a shorter distance and should aid his chances.
WITT'S DEMON - This rider/trainer duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +231. Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should benefit from today's shorter trip. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (fourth). Should improve in this race, with some decent odds.
CAPTAIN QUALITY - This speedy sort is cutting back in distance today. Should enhance his chances.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TELL TALE CHARLIE (ML=8/5),
TELL TALE CHARLIE - This animal likes to finish in the money, but doesn't usually get the job done. Don't play in the top spot. If today's race shapes up right, all the front runners will force a furious duel early. Too bad this horse is one of those front runners.
Play #1 MARGARITA BIBB to win if you can get odds of 6/1 or more
Lone Star - Race #5 - Post: 8:27pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 72
#6 PROPER'N STORME (ML=4/1)
#3 TIGER'S SHOT (ML=7/2)
#8 BETHYL'S ROYALROSE (ML=7/5)
PROPER'N STORME - Utilizing this jockey/conditioner combination is a good choice. Jock jumped on this gelding's back for the initial time on Apr 12th. Should be in touch with the animal even better in today's contest. The Apr 12th clash at Lone Star was at a class level of (79). Dropping to a lower class level considerably, so he should be in a good spot to win.
TIGER'S SHOT - Faced tougher last time around the track at Lone Star. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this one on my list of contenders.
BETHYL'S ROYALROSE - McMahon is back for another contest today after riding on board this animal for the first attempt on Apr 23rd and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Strong return on investment for this jock and conditioner tandem. I really like that last effort on Apr 23rd at Lone Star where she ended up second. This filly's last fig is lofty enough to score here, I'll bet on her back again this time out.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 JESSICAS ARCH (ML=6/1),
JESSICAS ARCH - Not easy to wager on this horse this time around. Make him show you something in a sprint race before you play him in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs.
Put your money on #6 PROPER'N STORME on the nose if you can get odds of 4/1 or more
Box [3,6,8] Total Cost: $6
Lone Star - Race #6 - Post: 8:55pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 91
#1 HEAVENVILLE (ML=5/2)
#3 HOOCHED EXPRESS (ML=10/1)
#1A SIGNATURE EVENT (ML=5/2)
#2 MISTER BERNSTEIN (ML=5/1)
#9 B'WANAGOLDMINE (ML=9/2)
HEAVENVILLE - Gelding had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. Horse's last race was at Lone Star in a race with a class rating of 97. Dropping drastically in class rating this time around puts him in a solid position right here. Solid average class rating on this horse. Should have the form to run well on the turf. This equine wins a lot of dough per start. At the top in this affair.
HOOCHED EXPRESS - Aboard this racer on March 2nd and Mora is yet again in the irons today. Lets try to beat the morning-line choices with this horse. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty decent race.
SIGNATURE EVENT - This horse has recorded the best recent turf speed rating at the distance/surface. That last work tells me this gelding is set for a top race. Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a sharp effort last time around the track within the last month. This animal loves the track here at Lone Star.
MISTER BERNSTEIN - Broberg has a very great win percent in turf routes. This gelding should be in shape and ready to win. McMahon and Broberg perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +33 ROI for a jockey and handler. Last race out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. That's a good sign he can close well, and should be right there at the finish line in this race. Went a route in a non-classified race race at Fair Grounds last out from an outside post. Moving to the inside at a similar distance should benefit this gelding.
B'WANAGOLDMINE - This gelding is in fine form, having run a nice race on April 11th, finishing sixth. Don't throw out based on last race finish. He didn't land in the money, but made a nice move down the stretch making up ground. Could be dangerous at a possible price.
Vulnerable Contenders: #10 ANEW RUMOR (ML=3/1),
#4 BERRY LOUD (ML=6/1),
ANEW RUMOR - Not the best 'placement' in this clash.
BERRY LOUD - The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced contender.
Go with #1 Entry on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds
1 with [2,3,9]
1 with [2,3,9] with [2,3,9] Total Cost: $6
1 with [2,3,9] with [2,3,9] with [2,3,9] Total Cost: $6
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
Lone Star - Race #7 - Post: 9:23pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 78
#2 LONESOME WIND (ML=2/1)
#4 OVERLAND PARK (ML=5/2)
#7 SHINE ON BRUISER (ML=3/1)
LONESOME WIND - Faced tougher last time around the track at Lone Star. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker group, so I will put this horse on my list of choice plays. This should be an easier task than what he was asked last time out against 'open' company. This jockey and handler have a profitable ROI when they are put together. There's something to be said for a change of surface. Last race this equine didn't like the terrain, but if you look two back on the dirt at Sam Houston, there was a great effort. I look for that again today.
OVERLAND PARK - Jock hops right back on after getting to know the mount by riding in the last race. That's always a positive sign. Using this rider/trainer combination is a good move. Have to make this gelding a win candidate; he comes off a good outing on April 23rd.
SHINE ON BRUISER - Gelding was in versus 'open company' on Apr 25th and should find this group easier to deal with. Pish brings him back again. I advocate you stick with this strong gelding.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 WITT'S LIZARD (ML=4/1),
#5 JUSTAPHONECALLAWAY (ML=8/1),
WITT'S LIZARD - Hard to bet on at 4/1 odds after the last two outings. This vulnerable equine ran a mediocre speed figure in the last race. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat in today's event running that fig.
JUSTAPHONECALLAWAY - Notched a mediocre speed figure last time around the track in a $7,500 Claiming race on April 17th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that rating.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - OVERLAND PARK - Playing the top earnings per start horse is an angle which won't steer you wrong in the long run. I'm betting on this one.
Save the win bets for another race
Box [2,4,7] Total Cost: $6
Lone Star - Race #8 - Post: 9:51pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,500 Class Rating: 79
#9 SHRADED EDGE (ML=5/1)
#8 JENNY'S TOUCH (ML=6/1)
#4 STEEL VICE (ML=10/1)
SHRADED EDGE - Hamilton comes to ride again after getting to know the gelding in the last affair. This rider and conditioner's horses have been producing a lucrative return on investment. Ran last time out against a higher rated class of horses at Oaklawn. The move down the ladder based on class should suit him well. Milligan moves this animal here to Lone Star from Oaklawn. Looking at the horse's recent past performance lines, he has shown the ability to win at multiple tracks.
JENNY'S TOUCH - Trainer Frazee moves this horse to a lower class level to face weaker company. Look for a solid performance at this level. A good sign that Frazee tries the 'shades' today and this thoroughbred in his drill started from the gate. Should improve. You have to consider the solid works of late.
STEEL VICE - Ran last time around the track against a better group of horses at Lone Star. The move down in the class scale should suit him well.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 JAGATI (ML=5/2),
#2 STAR'S VALENTINO (ML=9/2),
#10 HARMONY GROVE (ML=8/1),
JAGATI - Apr 11th is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. Garnered a mediocre speed rating last time around the track in a $5,000 Claiming race on April 11th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure. Have to be uncertain about the recent trend and awesome speed rating in the April 11th event. It was this gelding's top at that distance and this one should bounce today.
STAR'S VALENTINO - In any contest of 6 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been sharp in short distance contests of late. Hard to recommend any horse with dropping Equibase speed figs of 82/65/58.
HARMONY GROVE - 8/1 is not pegged at the proper price for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a sprint contest lately. 8/1 is too short of a value to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back outings.
#9 SHRADED EDGE is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
9 with [4,8]
Box [4,8,9] Total Cost: $6
Lone Star - Race #9 - Post: 10:19pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 79
#10 VASCO DA GAMA (ML=3/1)
#6 POTENTE RIVALE (ML=10/1)
#8 MISTER RICKY (ML=20/1)
#9 MOON GUN (ML=9/5)
VASCO DA GAMA - This thoroughbred obviously likes the conditions for today's race. Has registered the highest speed rating on the grass at the distance/surface. Radosevich was aboard this gelding in the last race and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Taking a trip down in class; has the form to make his presence felt. In the last race on the grass, this animal was strong. Anything close in this event, and this one should win. The horse with the top average class figure in turf events is usually a solid play. This thoroughbred fits the bill.
POTENTE RIVALE - You have to consider the solid works of late. Don't throw out based on last race finish. He didn't land in the top three, but made a nice move in the stretch making up ground. Could be dangerous at a possible price.
MISTER RICKY - This beautiful animal should be motoring down the homestretch.
MOON GUN - You'll be generating profits right and left by turning your racing money onto this jock/conditioner combination. This trainer brings horses to the grass fit and ready to go, winning over 20 pct of the time under similar conditions.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BOLD DEREK (ML=5/1),
#1 CHANGE ANYTHING (ML=8/1),
BOLD DEREK - This come from behinder should have a rough go of it to get there in time with the lack of early speed in this race. Doubtful that the fig he earned on April 10th will be good enough in this event.
CHANGE ANYTHING - Most unsatisfactory speed figure last out at Lone Star at 1 mile. Don't think this horse will improve too much in today's race.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MOON GUN - Posting three superb speed figs in the last three races. This horse is primed to beat these ponies today.
#6 POTENTE RIVALE is the play if we get odds of 7/1 or better
Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.
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