Lone Star - Sunday, May 24, 2015
How would you like to get information from the world's best bettors? We'll you're stuck with us! We busted our butts to give you a thorough investigation of Sunday's card from Lone Star. We take the TrackMaster info and apply our years of skill to provide savvy commentary. Some of our buddies will also chip in. With some luck, we'll hit a couple of exactas and trifectas along the way. Let's go get them!
Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 4 - #1 SONGANDAHEART (ML=3/5)
Today's Live Longshot: Race 8 - #5 SOUTH WIMBLEDON (ML=10/1)
Lone Star - Race #1 - Post: 1:35pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 63
#5 AVENUE MONTAIGNE (ML=4/5)
#2 DEE DAY (ML=2/1)
AVENUE MONTAIGNE - I like to invest in this handicapping angle, a campaigner coming back off a solid effort within the last month. This racer could be tough in today's contest, especially since Hamilton rode in the last race and now should be familiar with this one. This filly is in the top spot in EPS (earnings per start). Take a good look at this horse in the saddling ring.
DEE DAY - Taking a drop in class figure points from her May 1st race at Lone Star. Based on that data point, I will give this one the edge. My expertise says this is the lone stalker in the race. Filly put in a good late run at 5 furlongs and should relish the added distance today. Horse didn't land in the top three in last race, but did beat half the field, and made up ground in the stretch. A slight improvement and this horse should be right there at the end.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 AUNT NEANIE (ML=9/2),
AUNT NEANIE - The fifth place result in the last event was not the greatest.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - AVENUE MONTAIGNE - Trainer (Milligan) dropped this racer last time out, and keeps her at the same level today. Based on my analysis of the data, this class suits her well.
No reasonable straight wagers found for this race
Lone Star - Race #2 - Post: 2:03pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 82
#6 DIRTY SWAGG (ML=8/5)
#1 SCONNIE NATION (ML=4/1)
#2 BOSTON HUMOR (ML=5/2)
DIRTY SWAGG - A win pct like 50 is tremendous for any jock/trainer tandem. This horse could be tough this time, especially since McMahon rode last out and now should be acquainted with this one.
SCONNIE NATION - This jockey and trainer have a lucrative return on investment when they join forces. This gelding is in nice physical condition, having run a strong race on May 8th, finishing first.
BOSTON HUMOR - This gelding is almost always in-the-money. I really like that latest outing on May 10th at Lone Star where he ended up first. The improved speed figs over the last three races is solid. Jacks drops him in this race conditioned properly and ready to go.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CHATTERING CLASS (ML=9/2),
CHATTERING CLASS - This gelding garnered a fig in his last event which likely isn't good enough in today's race.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - BOSTON HUMOR - This gelding has the top speed figure last race with a very good 80. He is the top wager here.
Just doesn't look like any possible win plays in this one
Box [1,2,6] Total Cost: $6
Lone Star - Race #3 - Post: 2:31pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 71
#6 MY SHARP MISTY (ML=8/1)
#4 JUBILANT JULIE (ML=9/5)
#3 PERFORMANCE WRITER (ML=5/2)
MY SHARP MISTY - Took a drop in class last time around the track, running against the same type today. In this race here, this horse has clearly shown signs that she likes the grass. Her speed ratings are the highest in the field for this distance-surface. This jockey/trainer duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +283. Last ran at Lone Star and finished seventh. Reviewing her PP lines, I see she was close at the finish, within 5 of the winner.
JUBILANT JULIE - This filly has the top turf fig in her last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here thoroughbred has a good chance. Have to make this filly a serious competitor; she comes off a good effort on May 1st. That 66 fig this filly earned in her last clash tells me she's a main player this time around. 45-61-66 are last 3 speed ratings. Improving each time out is something she should do again in this race.
PERFORMANCE WRITER - This racer coming off a good performance in the last month or so is a serious competitor in my humble opinion. Jockey hops right back aloft after getting to know the race horse by riding in the last race. That's always a great angle. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 PROUD ANNIE (ML=4/1),
#5 BERNSTEIN'S DREAM (ML=8/1),
PROUD ANNIE - 4/1 odds isn't enough for this participant when looking at the most recent outings.
BERNSTEIN'S DREAM - Didn't land in the money on January 30th at Oaklawn. Followed it up with another less than stellar outing. This racer ran a substandard speed fig last time out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely get beat in today's event running that rating.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - MY SHARP MISTY - Don't overlook this thoroughbred in your wagering. She owns the best average class figure against these thoroughbreds in this contest.
#6 MY SHARP MISTY to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better
Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6
[3,4,6] with [3,4,6] with [2,3,4,6,8] with [2,3,4,6,8] Total Cost: $36
Lone Star - Race #4 - Post: 2:59pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 68
#1 SONGANDAHEART (ML=3/5)
SONGANDAHEART - Although I sometimes have doubts about a horse who failed as the favorite in her last race, this filly got a solid rating and fits well here. She finished in the place spot Apr 23rd, but was well ahead of the 3rd horse. Ranks number one in earnings per start. A dominant effort in this field can increase the lifetime bankroll. I like the hard fact that this filly's last speed fig, 69, is tops in this bunch. This filly is in nice physical condition. Finished second on April 23rd.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1A SO WHAT (ML=3/5),
#3 BLUE COLLAR QUEEN (ML=9/2),
#7 CINDY'S SILVER (ML=6/1),
SO WHAT - I predict a setback for this horse in this race.
BLUE COLLAR QUEEN - I foretell disappointment for this horse in this event.
CINDY'S SILVER - Today's race is 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance clash in the last 60 days. Not the greatest of signs. The fig last out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a possibly overvalued equine.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SONGANDAHEART - I love betting on horses that have a big advantage over the rest of the field when it comes to the Power Rating. This one fits the bill.
No reasonable straight wagers found for this race
1 with [3,4]
1 with [3,4] with [3,4,5,7] Total Cost: $6
1 with [3,4,5,7] with [3,4,5,7] with [3,4,5,7] Total Cost: $24
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
Lone Star - Race #5 - Post: 3:27pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 85
#2 MOON GUN (ML=2/1)
#6 THISCATSATALKIN (ML=8/1)
#3 OUR ROMEO (ML=10/1)
#7 HYPERION WEST (ML=8/1)
MOON GUN - This rider and trainer are consistent together. Winning pct when teamed up is very hard to one up. The race may set up nicely for this thoroughbred's late kick and he's probably the best closer in the field. This gelding is in fine form. Ended up second on May 17th.
THISCATSATALKIN - Strong return on investment for this jockey and conditioner duet.
OUR ROMEO - Ran last time around the track against a better group of horses at Lone Star. The move to a lower level should suit him well. A winning percent like 40 is outstanding for any jockey/trainer twosome. This equine is number one in (EPS) earnings per start. He looks good in today's event. Sub-par outing in the last race at Lone Star was due to the off-going (he finished fourth). Expect better in this race with the benefit of a fast track.
HYPERION WEST - This gelding shows a classic pattern of layoff, two sprints, and stretching to a route today. This gelding is in good form, having run a strong race on May 16th, finishing first. Lead at every call in last race at Lone Star. Decent opportunity to repeat that effort in this field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 JET TRICK (ML=5/2),
#5 BARANI (ML=3/1),
JET TRICK - Pedestrian speed rating last time around the track at Lone Star at 1 mile. Don't think this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's race.
BARANI - This runner ran a disappointing rating last time out. He shouldn't run much better and will probably suffer defeat today running that fig.
#6 THISCATSATALKIN to win at post-time odds of 6/1 or better
Lone Star - Race #6 - Post: 3:55pm - Allowance - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 88
#10 SKY DRAMA (ML=6/1)
#11 BRINGITONHOMECAPT. (ML=4/1)
#5 NEVER LATE FLYER (ML=7/2)
#7 FINAL TIME (ML=5/1)
#4 VALID BULL (ML=10/1)
SKY DRAMA - I like to wager on this handicapping angle, a horse coming back off a strong race within the last thirty days. Just look at his last speed figure, 86. That one fits in this field. Another way to assign class is EPS (earnings per start). This animal has the highest in the field. I think he'll be close at the finish line.
BRINGITONHOMECAPT. - This front-runner should benefit from this shorter distance. Horses out of the barn of Bryant have been solid on the grass. Should do well in this race. Equibase speed figures on the turf point to this thoroughbred as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance/surface.
NEVER LATE FLYER - This rider/handler duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +118. Dodson drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more from the horse's history to figure that this thoroughbred has a darn good chance at this level.
FINAL TIME - This gelding was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think he's ready for today's event. Running on the grass today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch. Last time around the track, finished seventh on a sloppy track at Lone Star. Have to give a better effort right here.
VALID BULL - Jock hops back atop after getting to know the thoroughbred by riding last out. That's always a big time angle. Horses out of the barn of Broberg have been solid on the turf. Should do well. The addition of the 'hood' usually means that a trainer wants a thoroughbred to show more speed or to keep his attention focused. A racer coming back this quickly after a nice contest is a good sign.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 JUST DUDE (ML=6/1),
JUST DUDE - This animal just hasn't looked ready lately. Should be difficult for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list.
#10 SKY DRAMA to win at post-time odds of 7/1 or better
[10,11] with [5,10,11] with [4,5,7,10,11] with [4,5,7,10,11] Total Cost: $24
Lone Star - Race #7 - Post: 4:23pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 59
#8 MORNING SUNSHINE (ML=6/1)
#11 SHADES (ML=9/2)
#5 STAR DOG (ML=10/1)
MORNING SUNSHINE - Durham drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping data to figure that this one has a darn good chance at this level. Arellano should be able to place this gelding right behind the front runners. Ideally, Arellano will rate behind the leaders, then make a 'slingshot' move on the turn. Entered a $12,500 Maiden Claiming race at Oaklawn last time around the track and raced in the slop finishing seventh. Expect better in this event. Another way to assign class is earnings per race. This horse has the highest in the bunch. I think he'll be close at the finish line.
SHADES - This horse could be tough this time around, especially since Chacaltana rode last out and now should be familiar with this one. This speed freak should profit from today's shorter distance. Davidson brings him back again. I propose you stick with this strong gelding.
STAR DOG - This jock and handler have a high win percent together. Looking at today's class figure, this horse is meeting an easier field than last out at Oaklawn.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BIJOULINN (ML=7/5),
#4 STORM BO SLEW (ML=6/1),
#9 BOURBON BOUND (ML=8/1),
BIJOULINN - Mar 9th is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. Can't wager on this less than sharp equine in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a short distance event of late.
STORM BO SLEW - In any event of 6 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been sharp in short distance contests of late. This racer ran a pedestrian speed rating last time around the track. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably suffer defeat in today's event running that number.
BOURBON BOUND - Looked like he was in good form on May 3rd. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign.
Put your money on #8 MORNING SUNSHINE on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
Box [5,8,11] Total Cost: $6
[5,8,11] with [5,8,11] with [5,7,8,9,11] with [5,7,8,9,11] Total Cost: $36
Lone Star - Race #8 - Post: 4:51pm - Allowance - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 73
#5 SOUTH WIMBLEDON (ML=10/1)
#3 LAZER BLAZE (ML=20/1)
#10 SANTACAFE (ML=5/2)
#6 BETHYL'S ROYALROSE (ML=5/1)
SOUTH WIMBLEDON - Hamilton was aboard this filly last time out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Comes out of a last race against 'open' company on May 2nd and faces what I believe are easier 'state breds' today. Taking a trip to a lower class level; has the ability to make her presence felt. Got to appreciate a good work horse. This filly's last morning work was second fastest of the day for the distance.
LAZER BLAZE - Mare's last race was against tougher open company. She's in with easier 'state breds' today. You always have to be on the patrol for money making jock/trainer tandems; we have an instance right here.
SANTACAFE - This speed freak is running a shorter distance today. Should enhance her chances. This thoroughbred coming off a good try in the last thirty days is a strong challenger in my opinion. This filly's last figure is good enough to score here, I'll bet on her back again today. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.
BETHYL'S ROYALROSE - On board this racer on April 23rd and McMahon is right back in the irons this time. A winning percent the likes of what McMahon and Broberg have achieved together is fantastic. Ran against the boys in her last race on Apr 23rd. With 'blinkers-on' this filly should be very competitive.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 LOOP TWENTY (ML=2/1),
#9 SILVER SPOT (ML=8/1),
LOOP TWENTY - Pace makes the race. Difficult for this speed merchant to be able to manage the pressured pace from the rest of this bunch. Don't feel this entrant will do much running in today's race. That last speed figure was common when compared with today's Equibase class figure.
SILVER SPOT - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint events recently. Doubtful to see her doing it today either.
Bet on #5 SOUTH WIMBLEDON to win if we can get at least 6/1 odds
Lone Star - Race #9 - Post: 5:19pm - Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 89
#4 CHANNEL ELEVEN (ML=3/1)
#10 SASSY N SPECIAL (ML=10/1)
#6 TRIPLEMENTAL (ML=4/1)
#12 MY SILVER LULLABY (ML=7/2)
CHANNEL ELEVEN - This animal has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Berry, and this one could bound home the winner. In this race here, this thoroughbred has clearly shown signs that she likes the turf. Her Equibase speed figs are the highest in the field for this dist-surf. You have to really like that recent race speed rating, 89, which is the highest last race speed rating of this field.
SASSY N SPECIAL - Has happened upon a soft spot today.
TRIPLEMENTAL - A horse coming back this quickly after a good race is a good sign. Trainer, Williams, has been deliberate with this mare off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. Three consecutive improved speed figs (52-76-83) make this horse a solid contender.
MY SILVER LULLABY - Look at this mare's PP lines. With each event she keeps getting closer. I really like that latest outing on May 3rd at Lone Star where she ended up first. Traditional handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. A live one today. This thoroughbred may have too much power on the turf for the rest of the field. Coming home, she could put these away.
Vulnerable Contenders: #14 SENSATIONAL APPEAL (ML=6/1),
#1 MILLENNIUM STAR (ML=6/1),
#9 CAT VANBLU (ML=8/1),
SENSATIONAL APPEAL - Don't believe this less than sharp equine will do much running in today's event. That last speed fig was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's class rating.
MILLENNIUM STAR - Difficult to play this pony this time around. Make her show you something in a short distance event before you invest in her in a race of 7 1/2 furlongs. This animal didn't show any front speed in the last affair. Now she is trying a sprint. Tough chance at the shorter distance. Garnered a mediocre rating last time out in a $10,000 Claiming race on May 3rd. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that rating. This horse doesn't have a winning character. Habitually finishes second or third.
CAT VANBLU - This animal just hasn't looked fit of late.
Put your money on #4 CHANNEL ELEVEN on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
4 with [6,10,12]
4 with [6,10,12] with [6,10,12] Total Cost: $6
4 with [6,10,12] with [6,10,12] with [6,10,12] Total Cost: $6
Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.
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