Mountaineer - Sunday, May 24, 2015
A day at the races is always more pleasant when you're cashing tickets. The Turf Club Analysts are going to give you some sound advisement on today's program from Mountaineer. We'll comment on the prime plays and advise against the vulnerable contenders.We'll even mark up some plays for you to make. Let's all go and make some cash!
Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 7 - #1 A ROSE GIVEN (ML=5/1)
Today's Live Longshot: Race 8 - #7 SHESA SPICEY CAT (ML=12/1)
Mountaineer - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $9,100 Class Rating: 77
#10 LOST APTITUDE (ML=5/2)
#1 TUPELO PLAYBOY (ML=3/1)
#3 DUNCANS CIRCLE (ML=10/1)
LOST APTITUDE - Sophisticated bettors will tell you that this horse has strong pace. This gelding is in good condition, having run a nice race on May 2nd, finishing second.
TUPELO PLAYBOY - When Bracho and Welsh work together on horses the return on investment has been fabulous at +270. He keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. It looks like Bracho had to be more familiar with this gelding on May 11th when riding him for the first time. Back on board again today. Won his last after shipping in. I like him again. Came home fast last time around the track at Mountaineer. That type of move bodes well for his chances in this race. I am keen on that last race on May 11th at Mountaineer where he finished first.
DUNCANS CIRCLE - A big drop in class figure points from his May 5th race at Mountaineer. Based on that valuable data, I will give this animal the edge. Entered a $15,000 Optional Claiming race at Mountaineer last time around the track and raced on a track listed as good finishing fifth. Should do better in this event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 HAWKEYE DECLAN (ML=4/1),
#9 LESTRADE (ML=8/1),
#7 BANK OF DAD (ML=8/1),
HAWKEYE DECLAN - Tough to take this horse at the odds after the finish (third) in the last event.
LESTRADE - Didn't make up ground at any point on Apr 18th. Hard to play this time around at the expected odds.
BANK OF DAD - The speed fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a vulnerable competitor.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - LOST APTITUDE - This horse is going to be tough against these thoroughbreds. His trainer Cox is successful with sprints on the turf.
Have to go with #10 LOST APTITUDE on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds
10 with [1,3]
Box [1,3,10] Total Cost: $6
Mountaineer - Race #2 - Post: 7:22pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $9,100 Class Rating: 83
#9 CLASSIC BOBBY (ML=4/1)
#2 CHALLENGER (ML=9/2)
#8 SUNSHINE VALENTINO (ML=6/1)
CLASSIC BOBBY - Faced tougher last race out at Mountaineer. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this animal on my list of choice plays. Earnings per race is something that I believe can be a very important handicapping factor. This entrant is ranked numero uno in this bunch.
CHALLENGER - Horses out of the barn of Cox have been strong on the grass. Should do well today. This rider and trainer have a lucrative ROI when they partner up.
SUNSHINE VALENTINO - I think this gelding is coming into top form. This magnificent animal is racing on the turf for the first time. He should be tough, coming off a first place finish in his race on May 10th on a sluggish track. This gelding is in fine form. Ran first on May 10th.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MEDIEVAL SWORD (ML=3/1),
#5 DON'T ROCK ME (ML=5/1),
#10 BATTLE MUSIC (ML=6/1),
MEDIEVAL SWORD - In any event of 7 furlongs, I like to support a contender that has been looking good in sprint races of late. When scrutinizing today's class rating, he will have to record a better fig than in the last race to compete in this turf sprint.
DON'T ROCK ME - Can't play this vulnerable equine in today's sprint of 7 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint affair of late. 5/1 is too short of a price to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back races. Notched a run-of-the-mill speed fig last race out in a $5,000 Claiming race on May 2nd. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig.
BATTLE MUSIC - Finished sixth last time out. Would have to advance to hit the board in today's race.
Bet on #9 CLASSIC BOBBY to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
Box [2,8,9] Total Cost: $6
Mountaineer - Race #3 - Post: 7:44pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $16,200 Class Rating: 81
#10 SOCIAL AFFAIR (ML=5/2)
#2 CORINTHIANO (ML=10/1)
#3 TAYLORS POINT (ML=10/1)
SOCIAL AFFAIR - Pilares was aboard this gelding last time out and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. That 80 fig this gelding registered in his last contest tells me he's a main player this time.
CORINTHIANO - My experienced judgement tells me to be on the alert for this animal in this event
TAYLORS POINT - When this rider and trainer join forces you have to take a look. Bracho and Radulski have been terrific together. Have to watch for this animal on the grass. Last race at Mountaineer, scored a big turf figure. Have to think he can do it again in this race. That 80 fig this gelding earned in his last race tells me he's a main player this time out.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 APLOMB (ML=7/2),
#5 COVERT AFFAIR (ML=9/2),
#1 OCEAN CITY (ML=5/1),
APLOMB - Sophomore versus the older ones for the first time is a tough one. Have to see this effort first. Don't think this less than sharp equine will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was disappointing when compared with today's class rating.
COVERT AFFAIR - You believe this horse is going to be victorious just because he's always close. Just doesn't win frequently.
OCEAN CITY - This animal hasn't been hitting the board in either of his last two efforts. Hard to play a horse that lays up for a long time then doesn't hit the board off the extended vacation. This gelding garnered a speed figure in his last affair which probably isn't good enough today.
#10 SOCIAL AFFAIR to win at post-time odds of 5/2 or better
10 with [2,3]
Box [2,3,10] Total Cost: $6
[2,3,10] with [2,3,10] with [2,3,6,8,10] with [2,3,6,8,10] Total Cost: $36
Mountaineer - Race #4 - Post: 8:06pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,600 Class Rating: 67
#4 RENA STARLIGHT (ML=9/5)
#6 NO JOKE BABY (ML=7/2)
#5 SEPTEMBER CEREMONY (ML=4/1)
RENA STARLIGHT - The May 12th affair at Mountaineer was at a class level of (75). Dropping down the ladder based on class drastically, so she should be in a good position. After the contest aboard this horse on May 12th, the rider is going to 'know' the mare much better. This mare is in fine physical condition, having run a nice race on May 12th, finishing second. You have to really like that last race speed fig, 70, which is the best recent race speed fig of this group.
NO JOKE BABY - A campaigner coming back this rapidly after a solid contest is a good sign.
SEPTEMBER CEREMONY - Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. Have to make this mare a serious competitor; she comes off a sharp outing on May 6th. I believe this horse isn't a natural sprinter. Routing is her best game and those last two sprints should have her set for a big run today. 46-58-62 are last three speed ratings. Improving each time out is something she should do again right here in this race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PRINCESS KUMA (ML=5/2),
PRINCESS KUMA - Just can't play this runner. Didn't show me anything positive last time around the track or on Apr 19th.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - RENA STARLIGHT - One of the class angles that my pal Stevearino and I play, is to look at the lifetime earnings per start. This thoroughbred is tops in my book.
Just say 'no' to the win bets this race
Box [4,5,6] Total Cost: $6
Mountaineer - Race #5 - Post: 8:28pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,300 Class Rating: 74
#4 WACKY INDIAN (ML=5/1)
#5 MILE HIGH CITY (ML=6/1)
#1 YODELING HONEY (ML=9/2)
WACKY INDIAN - The fact that this gelding is entered right back into a race so quickly means he's fit and ready. This gelding usually does his best running late. Look for him back early in the race and cruising down the homestretch on the tiring speed horses. I just may give this one a good chance. Should rebound off last race where he did run off the board, but was within five lengths at the wire.
MILE HIGH CITY - I have to believe that today's shorter distance should help this gelding. Have to like the way Baird has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today.
YODELING HONEY - I am keen on that recent contest on April 25th at Mountaineer where he ran third. This jockey and trainer have a positive return on investment when they join forces. This gelding should be in top form, this far into his form cycle.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SANTELLI (ML=2/1),
#3 SUPER COBRA (ML=5/2),
#7 PHILANDERER (ML=8/1),
SANTELLI - You should normally gamble against morning-line choices that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last three weeks.
SUPER COBRA - This gelding recorded a speed fig in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event.
PHILANDERER - The lack of workouts has to make one concerned despite the good performance in the last race.
Play #4 WACKY INDIAN to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
Box [1,4,5] Total Cost: $6
[1,4,5] with [1,4,5] with [1,3,4,5,7] with [1,3,4,5,7] Total Cost: $36
Mountaineer - Race #6 - Post: 8:50pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,300 Class Rating: 67
#1 STEDFAST CAT (ML=3/1)
#5 GRAVE (ML=6/1)
#2 REAL HUMOR (ML=15/1)
STEDFAST CAT - Ran last time out against tougher competition at Mountaineer. The move down in class should suit him well.
GRAVE - I think this gelding is very ready right now. I like the fact that Moreno brings him back to a race so quickly. I sense an early speed duel developing here. If that happens, this gelding will be in the catbird's seat to rumble by the leaders.
REAL HUMOR - Ran last time around the track against better company at Mountaineer. The move to a lower level should suit him well.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 NOONTIME BADGE (ML=2/1),
#7 CHIQUITO KISSES (ML=7/2),
#6 TY'S LEGACY (ML=9/2),
NOONTIME BADGE - This runner hasn't been on the track since Apr 25th. Not even any morning activity.
CHIQUITO KISSES - A bit of a less than stellar effort when this gelding finished tenth.
TY'S LEGACY - This gelding hasn't had any recent success in short distance contests. Tough to bet on him in this event. This thoroughbred hasn't shown much life in the last pair of races.
#1 STEDFAST CAT is the play if we get odds of 7/2 or better
Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6
Mountaineer - Race #7 - Post: 9:12pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,100 Class Rating: 47
#1 A ROSE GIVEN (ML=5/1)
#3 SUNNY ISLES GIRL (ML=4/1)
A ROSE GIVEN - Was in a $5,000 Maiden Claiming race at Turfway Park last out. That contest had an Equibase class figure of 62 and she is moving down right here. A certain solid contender.
SUNNY ISLES GIRL - Peltroche comes to ride again after getting to know the mare in the last contest. I like that most recent contest on May 4th at Thistledown where she ran third. This mare earned a good speed rating of 41 in her last contest. That figure should be strong enough to win this time out.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PLAY N TRUTH (ML=2/1),
#5 BROADWAY KATE (ML=5/2),
#4 SEA ISLE SANDY (ML=3/1),
PLAY N TRUTH - Apr 25th is the last time we've seen this mare around. Have to be a little bit leery. In the last race this vulnerable equine finished fourth. Doesn't bode well for her chances this time around.
BROADWAY KATE - This horse likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually win. Forget the top spot.
SEA ISLE SANDY - I'd like to see more preferred recent showings with morning line of 3/1.
Have to go with #1 A ROSE GIVEN on the win end if we get at least 6/5 odds
Mountaineer - Race #8 - Post: 9:34pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,500 Class Rating: 68
#7 SHESA SPICEY CAT (ML=12/1)
#8 ALL ABOUT ME (ML=10/1)
#2 SAWYER'S WONDER (ML=7/5)
SHESA SPICEY CAT - Speed is always important in horse racing, but the lone speed horse is always dangerous. Ran in the last race against a better field at Mountaineer. The move to a lower class rank should suit her well.
ALL ABOUT ME - TrackMaster keeps good stats on this type of information. This mare always seems to perform well after a vacation. I like the fact that this mare's last figure, 65, is tops in this field. PP data show this thoroughbred with 3 improving speed ratings. Oliveros should be on a live one in this event.
SAWYER'S WONDER - This filly was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think she's ready for today's event. This racer earns a lot of money per race. I believe she can increase that total in this race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CUTE LITTLE DEVIL (ML=7/2),
#3 END OF THE SEARCH (ML=9/2),
#5 MARIA'S SONG (ML=6/1),
CUTE LITTLE DEVIL - Based on the pace scenario in this affair, this equine doesn't fit in here. With a single front-runner and this animal having to race from behind, she sure has a tough assignment. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, she will have to garner a much better speed figure than last out to be competitive in this dirt sprint.
END OF THE SEARCH - No success for this steed in a sprint race over the last sixty days tells me that this filly is in a difficult situation
MARIA'S SONG - This come from behinder should have a rough go of it to get there in time with the paucity of speed in this race.
#7 SHESA SPICEY CAT to win at post-time odds of 5/2 or better
7 with [2,8]
Box [2,7,8] Total Cost: $6
Mountaineer - Race #9 - Post: 9:56pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,200 Class Rating: 66
#4 HARD LIGHT (ML=7/2)
#1 ONTHEOTHERHAND (ML=5/2)
#6 S S PATRIOT (ML=3/1)
HARD LIGHT - This animal is number one in earnings per start. He looks solid in today's affair.
ONTHEOTHERHAND - Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.
S S PATRIOT - This gelding is in good form, having run a nice race on May 3rd, finishing second. Finished ahead of today's favorite last race out at Mountaineer. Can do the same again right here.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1A INNOVATIVE FASHION (ML=5/2),
#5 R HALLOGRAEME (ML=8/1),
#8 STRONG GOVERMENT (ML=8/1),
INNOVATIVE FASHION - I don't normally play a morning-line choice that hasn't been to the track in the last few weeks. I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Extended layoff and no drop in level of competition.
R HALLOGRAEME - Hard to support any horse with dropping speed ratings of 55/36/33.
STRONG GOVERMENT - Tough to wager on any racer in a short distance event if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last sixty days. This gelding is always around, but just doesn't finish on top. Difficult to invest in him on the win end.
Bet on #4 HARD LIGHT to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds
4 with [1,6]
Box [1,4,6] Total Cost: $6
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.
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