Pimlico selections - Michael Nunamaker

Pimlico      Sunday May 24, 2015


Race #1


Proficiency: Samples=3269 W%=33.9 Net=1.94 Net4+=1.92

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 SUNSHINE KING                6-5       68      69      0.00   
 5 STOMP AN GO                  5-2       69      75      1.35   
 4 DR. ANESTHESIA               15-1      64      65      5.38   
 6 ENDURING                     23-1      60      63      6.04   
 1 THE GOLD IDENTITY            28-1      56      70      6.31   
Commentary

SUNSHINE KING Huge speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!! STOMP AN GO Modest pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. ENDURING No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. THE GOLD IDENTITY No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Four consecutive decreases in speed rating!!
Race #2


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 REGAL WARRIOR                3-1       72      76      0.00   
 2 NUESTRA SENOR                7-2       73      84      0.36   
 6 MOON ECLIPSE                 9-2       71      75      0.87   
 7 CHICSDIGTHESHARK             5-1       79      79      1.23   
 5 HURRICANE CREEK              10-1      70      72      2.68   
Commentary

REGAL WARRIOR Bid but hung in last. Huge class drop should help. NUESTRA SENOR No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. MOON ECLIPSE Highest earnings per start lifetime. CHICSDIGTHESHARK Huge pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Slight back speed advantage. HURRICANE CREEK Speed improved in last outing.
Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=1969 W%=27.8 Net=1.74 Net4+=2.14

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
10 ANGEL CLARENCE O             7-2       74      85      0.00   
 5 CABOPPO                      5-1       68      79      0.65   
12 THE GREAT PROVIDER           6-1       75      88      0.91   
15 ANOTHER SEVEN                7-1       72      82      1.31   
13 KIRKIES DREAM                10-1      74      91      2.20   
Commentary

ANGEL CLARENCE O Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. CABOPPO Highest earnings per start lifetime. THE GREAT PROVIDER Pace advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. ANOTHER SEVEN Highest earnings per start. KIRKIES DREAM Two moves in last race.
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 STORMALINA                   2-1       69      86      0.00   
 4 MONDOR                       4-1       69      83      1.33   
 3 MOON VISION                  5-1       68      81      1.94   
 6 BETTY BROWN NOSE             8-1       64      81      2.70   
 7 SUPERBOWL SALLY              10-1      68      82      3.27   
Commentary

STORMALINA Modest speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. Huge class drop should help. MONDOR Bid but hung in last. MOON VISION Showed surprise early speed in last. SUPERBOWL SALLY No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Bid but hung in last.
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=650 W%=31.2 Net=2.25 Net4+=3.12

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 DUNE DANCER                  3-1       69      84      0.00   
 7 ROCK ME GENTLY               3-1       67      83      0.20   
 1 JO WAY JAVA                  9-2       59      78      1.14   
 8 BLAME ME                     10-1      62      74      2.47   
 6 COLONEL AVARA                11-1      71      81      2.73   
Commentary

DUNE DANCER Modest speed advantage. Slight back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. ROCK ME GENTLY Was closer to the lead in last. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. JO WAY JAVA Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. BLAME ME No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Bid but hung in last. COLONEL AVARA No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Was closer to the lead in last. Showed surprise early speed in last.
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 MY SON ERNIE                 5-2       72      75      0.00   
 7 WONDERFUL UNION              4-1       80      79      1.10   
 3 PRINCE LEROI                 6-1       67      72      1.69   
 2 SPICER CUB                   7-1       74      78      2.22   
 4 GOODBYESEEULATER             12-1      76      84      3.30   
Commentary

MY SON ERNIE Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. WONDERFUL UNION Big pace advantage. Slight speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. PRINCE LEROI Was closer to the lead in last. SPICER CUB Highest average purse value. GOODBYESEEULATER No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=650 W%=31.2 Net=2.25 Net4+=3.12

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 6 PASSING PFAST                4-1       69      87      0.00   
 8 HUAQUECHULA                  6-1       74      87      0.87   
11 RUBIESANDWRANGLERS           8-1       72      89      1.20   
 9 CHESAPEAKE SPRING            8-1       68      85      1.30   
10 ANYTHINGICANDOFORU           10-1      63      81      1.80   
Commentary

PASSING PFAST Slight speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. HUAQUECHULA Modest pace advantage. RUBIESANDWRANGLERS Modest back speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. CHESAPEAKE SPRING Speed improved in last outing. ANYTHINGICANDOFORU No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
Race #8


Proficiency: Samples=650 W%=31.2 Net=2.25 Net4+=3.12

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
11 STORMY ROCIT                 4-1       80      95      0.00   
 3 HIGH BAR                     9-2       77      88      0.30   
 4 STAR MANEUVER                8-1       77      88      1.21   
 2 IRUNALATTE                   10-1      79      87      1.70   
12 THE MAN'S HOSS               10-1      73      87      1.91   
Commentary

STORMY ROCIT Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. HIGH BAR Highest earnings per start. STAR MANEUVER Slight speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!! IRUNALATTE No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Showed surprise early speed in last. THE MAN'S HOSS Was closer to the lead in last.
Race #9


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 PIRATE'S COVE                5-2       62      78      0.00   
 5 CATULAR                      5-2       70      83      0.17   
 8 LOREN'S ROCK                 9-1       54      72      2.51   
 1 LORD EARL GREY               13-1      64      78      3.41   
 3 WOLF KING                    15-1      52      71      3.58   
Commentary

PIRATE'S COVE Highest earnings per start. CATULAR Modest pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. LORD EARL GREY Bid but hung in last. WOLF KING Modest speed advantage. Huge class drop should help.

Best Bet of the day


Race 1 SUNSHINE KING

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.