Pimlico - Sunday, May 24, 2015
We're all here for a day of racing at Pimlico. Climb into your saddle and ride along side as we steer you through the challenge of picking horses. We will be making a set of recommendations below which should give you another slant on today's action other than you might get by simply browsing through the program. While we do most of the labor, you may have to make some adjustments based on conditions at Pimlico. Also, we don't do this all alone. Some pals will chime in with their thoughts below as well and at the core, we combine our skill and the data that TrackMaster produces to make our selections. Good luck!
Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 1 - #6 ENDURING (ML=10/1)
Today's Live Longshot: Race 1 - #6 ENDURING (ML=10/1)
Pimlico - Race #1 - Post: 1:10pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 65
#6 ENDURING (ML=10/1)
ENDURING - Ortiz was aboard this gelding last out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. This gelding is in good condition, having run a good race on May 1st, finishing third. Recent Equibase speed figures show solid pattern of improvement.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SUNSHINE KING (ML=1/2),
#5 STOMP AN GO (ML=4/1),
#4 DR. ANESTHESIA (ML=8/1),
SUNSHINE KING - The morning-line choice is shaky here with the lack of workouts.
STOMP AN GO - A bit of a less than stellar outing when this gelding finished fourth.
DR. ANESTHESIA - Tough for this closer equine to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone pace is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done.
Putting our cash on #6 ENDURING to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
Pimlico - Race #2 - Post: 1:38pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 93
#4 REGAL WARRIOR (ML=5/2)
#2 NUESTRA SENOR (ML=7/2)
#1 TERMSOFENGAGEMENT (ML=5/1)
REGAL WARRIOR - Winless in his last three starts, this gelding did win on Nov 26th at Laurel Park versus tougher competition. Got to appreciate a good work horse. This gelding's last prep was second fastest of the day for the distance. The race may set up nicely for this gelding's strong late move.
NUESTRA SENOR - This gelding is in good condition, having run a nice race on May 3rd, finishing second. Don't often see a profitable ROI like +40. This rider/conditioner tandem has done well together over the last 12 months.
TERMSOFENGAGEMENT - Dropped down in class in the last race, and keeps in that lower class right here in this race. A good sign this horse is comfortable and ready to go. Carrying 6 pounds less this race. Trainer has him in a good spot.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CHICSDIGTHESHARK (ML=3/1),
#6 MOON ECLIPSE (ML=6/1),
#5 HURRICANE CREEK (ML=8/1),
MOON ECLIPSE - 6/1 is just too low of a price to take on this participant.
HURRICANE CREEK - This steed hasn't been close at the finish line recently. Finished fourth in his most recent performance with a disappointing fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group.
Go with #4 REGAL WARRIOR on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6
Pimlico - Race #3 - Post: 2:06pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $27,000 Class Rating: 73
#15 ANOTHER SEVEN (ML=4/1)
#12 THE GREAT PROVIDER (ML=3/1)
ANOTHER SEVEN - Owns the highest speed rating on the turf at this distance. Running 5 furlongs on the turf, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This thoroughbred has the tops in the bunch.
THE GREAT PROVIDER - After the race aboard this animal on May 9th, the jock is going to be acquainted with the gelding much better. I took a look at this gelding's finishes. He's almost always on the board. This gelding should be in top form, this far into his form cycle.
Vulnerable Contenders: #10 ANGEL CLARENCE O (ML=5/2),
#14 COPIOUS REWARD (ML=5/1),
#5 CABOPPO (ML=5/1),
ANGEL CLARENCE O - Hasn't raced or had any morning drills since May 1st. Not much value on this morning-line choice. All types of crazy zip entered for this race. Slight chance for this speedball.
COPIOUS REWARD - Can't invest in this racer in today's sprint of 5 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint race lately. Don't think this steed will make an impact in today's race. That last speed figure was pedestrian when compared with today's class rating. Difficult to put your dough on this speed merchant. Too much early zip in the clash.
CABOPPO - Has been beaten as the favorite the last two times. A repeat is probably in store. Common speed rating last race out at Pimlico at 5 furlongs. Don't think this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's event.
#15 ANOTHER SEVEN is the play if we get odds of 2/1 or better
Pimlico - Race #4 - Post: 2:34pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 77
#5 STORMALINA (ML=9/5)
#1 ANTIETAM CREEK (ML=5/1)
#3 MOON VISION (ML=7/2)
STORMALINA - All systems look good for this filly. Last work, 2nd fastest of the day, shows she's fit and ready. This horse likes the dirt a whole heck of a lot better. Look at the start 2 races back on March 13th and take a note on the surface change. We may be sitting on a real live one! She has the uppermost earnings per start. Give the once over to this one. Trainer Schoenthal moves this horse down in class to face a lower class of horses. Look for a good race at this level.
ANTIETAM CREEK - Took a drop in class last race out, running against the same type today. This horse ran out of the money at Pimlico last time out on the mud. She should improve right here on a fast track.
MOON VISION - A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a strong effort is a good signal. You'll be making money left and right by turning your cash onto this rider/handler combination. The most recent speed fig of 76 is the top last race speed rating in the field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MONDOR (ML=5/2),
MONDOR - 3 year old versus the older ones for the first time is a tough one. Have to see this effort first.
Can't see anything going off the right odds to bet to win
5 with [1,3]
Box [1,3,5] Total Cost: $6
[1,3,5] with [1,3,5] with [1,2,3,5,6] with [1,2,3,5,6] Total Cost: $36
Pimlico - Race #5 - Post: 3:02pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 78
#7 ROCK ME GENTLY (ML=3/1)
#2 DUNE DANCER (ML=9/5)
#1 JO WAY JAVA (ML=6/1)
ROCK ME GENTLY - This thoroughbred has recorded the best recent turf speed figure at the distance-surface. You always have to be on the watch for bankroll building jock/conditioner duos; we have an instance right here. A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a solid effort is a good signal.
DUNE DANCER - Last time around the track was at Pimlico in a race with a class figure of 85. Dropping drastically in class figure this time out puts him in a solid position in this race. Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a solid effort on May 3rd.
JO WAY JAVA - When I handicap a race on the turf, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This horse has the highest average class in the entire bunch. This front running sort should profit from today's shorter trip. I've always said that three or more blow outs in two weeks equals a thoroughbred that's in good condition. So, I have to figure he'll be hard to beat. Three consecutive improved speed ratings (36-74-76) make this thoroughbred a powerful contender.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SPARTIANOS (ML=9/2),
#8 BLAME ME (ML=8/1),
SPARTIANOS - In any contest of 5 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been sharp in short distance events recently. This entrant hasn't been near the victor at the wire lately.
BLAME ME - Tough to go with this horse at 5 furlongs after showcasing no early speed at 1 1/16 miles. Will be hard for this horse to beat this field off of that last fig. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put him on the likely underlays list.
Bet on #1 JO WAY JAVA to win if we can get at least 6/1 odds
Box [1,2,7] Total Cost: $6
[1,2,7] with [1,2,7] with [1,2,5,7,8] with [1,2,5,7,8] Total Cost: $36
Pimlico - Race #6 - Post: 3:30pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 100
#4 GOODBYESEEULATER (ML=12/1)
#5 MY SON ERNIE (ML=3/1)
GOODBYESEEULATER - This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +71. Hooper brings him back again. I recommend you stick with this hot gelding.
MY SON ERNIE - Juarez is back for another race today after racing atop this animal for the first time on May 8th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. When Juarez and Magee partner up on equines the ROI has been fabulous at +73. 37-80-100 are last 3 Equibase speed figures. Improving each time out is something he should do again in this race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 WONDERFUL UNION (ML=2/1),
#3 PRINCE LEROI (ML=7/2),
#2 SPICER CUB (ML=4/1),
WONDERFUL UNION - This less than sharp equine hasn't been on the track since April 25th. Not even any workouts. Tough to put your cash on this oft beaten favorite. Not much value. This questionable contender ran a disappointing speed fig last race out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably lose in today's event running that fig.
PRINCE LEROI - Don't believe this pony will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's class rating.
SPICER CUB - Hasn't been doing anything at all lately.
Put your money on #4 GOODBYESEEULATER on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
Pimlico - Race #7 - Post: 3:58pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 72
#2 CHOCKLIT E CLARE (ML=12/1)
#9 CHESAPEAKE SPRING (ML=6/1)
#3 AVELLANEOUS (ML=20/1)
CHOCKLIT E CLARE - I think the shorter trip will help this filly stay the trip. This jockey/trainer duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +438. Have to give this filly a good shot. Ran a sharp outing last time around the track within the last month or so. Filly is a few starts into a come back here. Should give a big race today.
CHESAPEAKE SPRING - Finished fourth at Pimlico last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 6/1 right here in this race, she looks like a possible contender.
AVELLANEOUS - Horse made up some ground down the stretch last out on April 24th at Pimlico. That contest is better than it looked. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. The addition of blinks should keep her mind on business today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 PASSING PFAST (ML=5/2),
#7 OLYMPIC MEDALLIST (ML=7/2),
#8 HUAQUECHULA (ML=8/1),
PASSING PFAST - The Brain always warns me to stay away from ponies in sprint events that haven't finished in the money in short distance races of late. The Equibase speed figures continue to sink, 89/82/71. Not a positive indication.
OLYMPIC MEDALLIST - Can't really be sure that the latest speed figure of 92 is legitimate since it was earned on the soft turf.
HUAQUECHULA - Just don't think she is worth the risk at the likely odds.
Bet on #2 CHOCKLIT E CLARE to win if we can get at least 4/1 odds
Box [2,3,9] Total Cost: $6
Pimlico - Race #8 - Post: 4:26pm - Optional Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 99
#8 NICEANDEZ (ML=6/1)
#11 STORMY ROCIT (ML=8/5)
#12 THE MAN'S HOSS (ML=10/1)
#9 AGONISTIC (ML=10/1)
NICEANDEZ - Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a good contest last out within the last month. Gelding is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a big race today. This gelding has the top turf fig in his last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here thoroughbred has a good chance. This gelding earned a strong speed fig of 99 in his last event. That speed figure should be strong enough to triumph today.
STORMY ROCIT - This front-runner is shortening up today. Should increase his chances of winning. I'll forgive that last effort on Apr 17th when he flopped as the betting favorite. That race was pretty good for an Allowance race and this gelding's speed rating was solid. This one likes to win at multiple tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call.
THE MAN'S HOSS - That last drill tells me this gelding is set for a top race. This thoroughbred coming off a sharp race in the last month is a solid contender in my opinion. A definite class advantage goes to this horse. What that tells me is he will be very competitive in this grass race.
AGONISTIC - When McMahon gives Pimentel a leg up on any racer, you have to feel that with their win percent you have at worst a fighting chance. McMahon is strong in turf sprints. This animal should have no alibis if he doesn't win.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 IMMORTAL EYES (ML=2/1),
#3 HIGH BAR (ML=5/1),
#4 STAR MANEUVER (ML=8/1),
IMMORTAL EYES - Would have to get better off that fourth place finish last time to make an impact here. When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, he will have to notch a much better speed figure than last race out to battle in this turf sprint.
HIGH BAR - Unlikely for this thoroughbred to make an impact with no recent good showings in a short distance race.
STAR MANEUVER - This gelding hasn't had any recent accomplishments in short distance races. No picnic to play him in this race. Just cannot play any entrant right back after he doesn't finish in the money after any extended time off.
Putting our cash on #8 NICEANDEZ to win. Have to have odds of at least 6/1 or better though
Box [8,12] Box [8,9]
Pimlico - Race #9 - Post: 4:55pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 76
#2 PIRATE'S COVE (ML=5/2)
#5 CATULAR (ML=7/2)
#4 EXPERIENCE COUNTS (ML=15/1)
PIRATE'S COVE - I like this gelding. Has the highest earnings per start in this contest.
CATULAR - This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should compete well today.
EXPERIENCE COUNTS - All systems look good for this gelding. Last workout, 2nd fastest of the day, shows he's fit and ready. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough races since the layoff and should be fit.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 LOREN'S ROCK (ML=4/1),
#3 WOLF KING (ML=8/1),
LOREN'S ROCK - This gelding is always hitting the board, but just doesn't finish on top. Hard to bet on him on the front end. Won't be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put him on the questionable contenders list.
WOLF KING - Didn't hit the board on April 9th at Pimlico. Followed it up with another lackluster outing.
Go with #4 EXPERIENCE COUNTS on top if we're getting at least 7/1 odds
Box [2,4,5] Total Cost: $6
Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.
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