Turf Club Analysts
Champagne
Prairie Mdws - Friday, May 8, 2015

We are your escorts for today's fine Friday program from Prairie Mdws. Leap on our backs as we take you through a day at the races, avoiding the pitfalls and missteps that will happen to those outside of our safari. Some of our handicapping buddies will be helping us along the way. Stand by us and hopefully we'll all have some money to take home at the end of the day.

Cash

Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 2 - #2 CLASSIC ARCH (ML=5/1)

Today's Live Longshot: Race 6 - #5 DEEMIE (ML=10/1)


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Prairie Mdws - Race #1 - Post: 6:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 69

Rating: Golden Dollar

#2 LOCA'S HERMANO (ML=7/5)
#1 FUNKY BOX (ML=7/2)
#6 TYLER T (ML=9/2)
#5 HOLD THE ROPE (ML=5/1)


LOCA'S HERMANO - Nice return on investment for this jockey and conditioner duo. Have to make this gelding a solid contender; he comes off a strong race on April 19th. FUNKY BOX - I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough efforts since the vacation and should be fit. I am keen on that latest race on April 8th at Oaklawn where he ended up third. Earnings per race entered is something that I believe can be a very key handicapping factor. This horse is ranked numero uno in this group. TYLER T - Looking at this gelding's running lines, I see he's almost always in the money. A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a sharp outing is a good sign. HOLD THE ROPE - When the real racing starts, this gelding should be flying past them. A pony coming back this promptly after a solid race is a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: No Vulnerable Contenders in this race,





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Just doesn't look like any possible win plays in this one

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Prairie Mdws - Race #2 - Post: 6:54pm - Maiden Special - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 59

Rating: Golden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 CLASSIC ARCH (ML=5/1)


CLASSIC ARCH - This handler has an ROI of +101 with horses first time out. When Tohill and Caster partner up on equines the ROI has been wonderful at +82.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 STORMING CECILIA (ML=5/2), #5 VANDALIA VIXEN (ML=7/2), #3 HERE COMES GWEN (ML=9/2),

STORMING CECILIA - Last performed on Apr 22nd at Keeneland, finishing sixth. Unlikely to advance off of that try in today's race. VANDALIA VIXEN - Doesn't appear to have enough positive aspects to warrant the value. HERE COMES GWEN - Would have to get quite a bit more than the oddsmaker's morning line of 9/2 to play this horse.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CLASSIC ARCH - I'm making a wager on this filly. Lasix is going to make all the difference in the world.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #2 CLASSIC ARCH on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

Bar

Prairie Mdws - Race #3 - Post: 7:18pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,395 Class Rating: 69

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 DANAS HARBOR (ML=4/1)
#1 PASSING AFFAIR (ML=7/2)
#4 OUT OF HOCK (ML=12/1)


DANAS HARBOR - On board this entrant on April 24th and Laviolette is back again in the irons today. When Laviolette and Delong team up on horses the return on investment has been fabulous at +61. Have to make this mare a contender; she comes off a strong race on April 24th. PASSING AFFAIR - I expect this beautiful animal to astonish some railbirds in today's event. OUT OF HOCK - Every now and then I take some time off, when I come back to the track I feel refreshed. I think it's the same with this mare as she always seems to run well after a layoff.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SLAMTASTIC (ML=2/1), #7 STRAIGHTERSGREATER (ML=6/1), #6 WHO'S FOR GLORY (ML=8/1),

SLAMTASTIC - Hard to play a less than sharp equine that lays up for a long time then doesn't hit the board off the extended layoff. This horse hasn't shown too much in the last pair of contests. STRAIGHTERSGREATER - Finished fifth on April 30th after the extended vacation. Doubtful if there will be a reversal of fortune in this event. WHO'S FOR GLORY - I find it hard to support any questionable contender in a short distance race if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple of months. Last performed on April 25th at Prairie Mdws, finishing eighth. Unlikely to improve off of that outing in today's race. One should normally not bet on a entrant in the next start after finishing off the board following a long turnout.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #3 DANAS HARBOR on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,3,4] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

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Prairie Mdws - Race #4 - Post: 7:42pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,668 Class Rating: 59

Rating: Golden Dollar

Save your do - Re - Mi for another race



Vulnerable Contenders: #9 JERRYS TWO TICKETS (ML=7/2), #5 ODES OF PINDAR (ML=4/1), #6 KID KODIAK (ML=9/2),

JERRYS TWO TICKETS - A bit of a lackluster try when this gelding finished seventh. ODES OF PINDAR - I can't play this frequent non-winner. Gets the job finished occasionally. Not probable that the speed figure he registered on Apr 26th will hold up in this clash. KID KODIAK - This horse hasn't been in the money in either of his last two races around the track.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

No reasonable straight wagers found for this race

EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

Bar

Prairie Mdws - Race #5 - Post: 8:06pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 61

Rating: Golden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 WYO GIRL (ML=7/2)
#7 SEALARK (ML=3/1)
#3 FUNNY SMOKE (ML=4/1)
#2 AM I DREAMIN (ML=5/1)


WYO GIRL - I certainly see good luck for this thoroughbred right here. SEALARK - Creighton brings her right back. I recommend you stay with this hot filly. Look at this filly's PP lines. With each race she keeps getting closer. Ranked number one in earnings per race. Another confirmation that this horse is the class of the field. FUNNY SMOKE - The November 21st event at Remington Park was at a class level of (76). Dropping to a lower class rank considerably, so she should be in a good spot. AM I DREAMIN - Entered last at Remington Park in a race with a class figure of 70. Dropping significantly in class rating this time puts her in a solid position in this event. This mare has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Dunbar. Better beware of this angle. This horse has increased her Equibase speed figs in each of the last 2 races. That kind of progress is worth taking notice of. The most recent speed fig of 66 is the highest last race rating in the group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DENALI INSPIRED (ML=6/1), #6 EVERY MEMORY (ML=8/1),

DENALI INSPIRED - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance races of late. Unlikely to see her doing it in today's event either. EVERY MEMORY - Awfully tough to wager on this runner when she hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness recently.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Save the win money to bet more in another race

EXACTA WAGERS:

None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Prairie Mdws - Race #6 - Post: 8:30pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 DEEMIE (ML=10/1)
#7 OSCAR BRAVO (ML=6/5)
#1 SHESAHEIFER (ML=3/1)


DEEMIE - Have to like the way Moquett has raced this filly back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today. In the last race, finished sixth on a sloppy track at Prairie Mdws. I'd expect a better race right here in this race. OSCAR BRAVO - This filly likes to be near the lead. Today's contest is a shorter trip and should enhance her winning probability. I like this filly a lot here. She shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a sharp effort last out within the last month. This thoroughbred has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 36 to 51 to 66 in succession. SHESAHEIFER - Filly won shipping here on April 24th and looks good right back. Based on this filly's recent efforts, she should benefit from this shorter distance. This filly should be in top form, this far into her form cycle. Have to give this filly a good shot. Ran a good race last out within the last 30 days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SHOWING OUT (ML=6/1), #6 LA REINA DE IOWA (ML=8/1),

SHOWING OUT - Tough to keep following this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. LA REINA DE IOWA - A horse that breaks her maiden in a Maiden Claimer is usually recognized as a poor risk next time out. This filly didn't show me enough down the homestretch to warrant backing against stronger opponents.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - OSCAR BRAVO - This filly takes a big tumble in the class rating department from a rating of 69 down to 64. Strong contender.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 DEEMIE is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Prairie Mdws - Race #7 - Post: 8:54pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 59

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 ESTUARY (ML=4/1)


ESTUARY - Looking at today's class rating, this campaigner is encountering an easier field than last out at Prairie Mdws. Don't look any further. This pony has my cash. Way too much speed. Don't throw this animal out due to her last race at Prairie Mdws where she ran fourth on a sloppy track. I look for an improvement today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 B'S HONEY (ML=7/2), #2 RED DEPUTY'S GIRL (ML=9/2), #7 MISS WREN (ML=5/1),

B'S HONEY - 7/2 is just not enough of a price to take on this entrant. RED DEPUTY'S GIRL - This questionable contender ran a mediocre speed figure in the last race. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely get beat in today's race running that number. MISS WREN - Tough to support any horse that runs as well as she did and then lays up and doesn't workout at all.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#1 ESTUARY to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

1 with [6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

1 with [6,7] with [2,3,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

1 with [2,3,6,7] with [2,3,6,7] with [2,3,6,7] Total Cost: $24

Bar

Prairie Mdws - Race #8 - Post: 9:18pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,500 Class Rating: 84

Rating: Golden Dollar

#5 TRUE TEN (ML=2/1)
#3 STAR STRUCK STEVE (ML=3/1)
#6 BOTTOM LINE (ML=5/2)


TRUE TEN - Colt had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. The Apr 10th race at Oaklawn was at a class level of (99). Dropping to a lower class level drastically, so he should be in a good spot to take this race. This horse is number one in earnings per race. He looks good in today's affair. STAR STRUCK STEVE - Cruised home victorious as he wired the field just recently at Prairie Mdws. Quickly turning around to potentially do it again in today's race. He must like the track here. He just won over the track after shipping in. This colt is in superb form right now. Ran first last time out and comes back promptly. 72-77-85 are last three speed figures. Improving each time out is something he should do again in this event. BOTTOM LINE - Trainer Autrey moves this one down the class ladder to face a weaker class today. Look for a sharp race in here. Dropping 5 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 U CALL ME ALEX (ML=6/1), #1 ALL ABOARD (ML=8/1),

U CALL ME ALEX - 6/1 is too low of a price to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back efforts.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Not really a race for win bets

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,5,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Prairie Mdws - Race #9 - Post: 9:42pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $37,275 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 PROPULSION (ML=7/2)
#5 INTO N OUT OF (ML=5/1)


PROPULSION - Have to like the way Chleborad has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a nice outing is a good omen. Vazquez and Chleborad perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +64 ROI for a jock and handler. Took a class drop last out at Prairie Mdws. Chleborad keeps him at the same level in this race. I think that's a good move. This gelding's last speed rating recorded on Apr 25th is at the top in last race speed ratings. INTO N OUT OF - The recent bullet 36.0 work should put this gelding on track for today's effort.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 PRAIRIE TICKET (ML=9/2), #1 HI FIVE CY (ML=8/1), #8 PIRATE ON THE EDGE (ML=8/1),

PRAIRIE TICKET - Doesn't look to have enough good aspects to support the reward. HI FIVE CY - This racer will most likely be at the back of the pack as this bunch crosses the finish line. PIRATE ON THE EDGE - Didn't hit the board on Apr 25th after the very long layoff. Be doubtful of this animal this time out. Awfully tough to play this racer when he hasn't been showing any signs of readiness recently. Not probable that the speed figure he garnered on Apr 25th will be good enough in this affair. Last effort was too nice. Not too far of a reach to expect a 'bounce' this time.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#7 PROPULSION is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip




Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.

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