Turf Paradise selections - Michael Nunamaker

Turf Paradise      Sunday May 3, 2015


Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 LUCKY'S PAT                  7-5       60      88      0.00   
 1 FIRST FLOWER                 5-1       61      87      2.61   
 3 KNIFE FORK ZOOM              6-1       63      88      2.90   
 6 PAVE'S LAST SHEIK            6-1       73      94      2.93   
 4 JAZZ GIRL                    13-1      59      84      4.46   
Commentary

LUCKY'S PAT Modest speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. FIRST FLOWER Four consecutive decreases in speed rating!! PAVE'S LAST SHEIK Massive pace advantage. Slight back speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. JAZZ GIRL Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 6 MARV                         5-2       72      93      0.00   
 1 BOURBON SENSE                9-2       75      94      1.07   
 7 YE CALL ME CHIEF             9-2       75      95      1.11   
 5 JILA'S VINCENZO              9-1       75      91      2.32   
 3 MEMO FROM PAT                9-1       62      83      2.38   
Commentary

MARV Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. BOURBON SENSE Highest earnings per start. YE CALL ME CHIEF Slight pace advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Last race within 5 days, a great sign! JILA'S VINCENZO Speed improved in last outing. MEMO FROM PAT No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=650 W%=31.2 Net=2.25 Net4+=3.12

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 7 OF ROYALTY                   3-1       76      87      0.00   
 2 CU AT SUNUP                  3-1       67      84      0.16   
 3 NORA'S SONG                  7-2       68      83      0.45   
 6 CHECKOUTMYMAN                9-1       68      85      2.19   
 4 CINNAMON MOCHA               14-1      68      80      3.08   
Commentary

OF ROYALTY Big pace advantage. Slight back speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. CU AT SUNUP Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. NORA'S SONG Slight speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. CHECKOUTMYMAN Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 7 JOHANN'S WARRIOR             2-1       62      80      0.00   
 1 SCRIPTONITE                  7-2       64      89      1.11   
 3 DISTORTED SHIMMER            6-1       61      89      2.29   
 2 ARE YOU THE ONE              10-1      65      85      3.12   
 6 DUST IN ZAHN                 10-1      64      83      3.28   
Commentary

JOHANN'S WARRIOR Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. SCRIPTONITE Showed surprise early speed in last. DISTORTED SHIMMER Looks to have an early speed advantage. ARE YOU THE ONE Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. DUST IN ZAHN Highest average purse value.
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=650 W%=31.2 Net=2.25 Net4+=3.12

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 OH NEWMAN                    3-1       58      87      0.00   
 1 UNDERWRITE                   3-1       75      98      0.04   
 7 SAILINTOTHESUNSET            7-1       69      76      1.74   
 2 ONE BRITE DAY                10-1      64      83      2.54   
 9 MONEY TREE                   10-1      74      82      2.57   
Commentary

OH NEWMAN Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. UNDERWRITE Modest pace advantage. Slight speed advantage. Huge class drop should help. MONEY TREE Highest earnings per start at today's track.

Best Bet of the day


Race 3 LUCKY'S PAT

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.