David E. Johnson, Ph.D  Jerry C. Kenley, Ph.D
David E. Johnson, Ph.D
THE VALULINE

America's Betting Line

Today's Win Contenders
With Betting Line and Betting Strategies

The Professional Risk Analysis in Horse Racing

Churchill Downs - Saturday - May 2, 2009

Jerry C. Kenley, Ph.D

Learn how to bet these horses for most profit.
Buy Dr. Johnson's new book, Value Betting at the Racetrack.
Go to www.thevaluline.com/valuebetting.htm for information.

The Thoroughbred Valuline™ is accessible from www.thevaluline.com, or by fax: 1-800-334-3800. Also from: www.trackmaster.com (Thoroughbred Selections) or www.equibase.com (Expert Selections), www.youbet.com, www.tvgnetwork.com, and www.xpressbet.com. The Guide to Using The Valuline is available in Spanish and in Chinese.
Strength rating
Positive Factors
Most Likely Winners
Recommended Exotic Wagers
 
 
 
18    10    7   
 
 
 
A D J S T W 
F J L T W 
J L W 
CD-1 6f DIRT                   8 Horses
(10:30) D          MSW F/M 3YUP $48,300
P# dd ex p3 t s        ML   WP    TVL  
 1 MOTHER RUTH         2/1  36%   9/5 
 4 AWESOME GRANNIE     5/1  20%   4/1  
 7 FAITH IN ME        12/1  14%   6/1  
MOTHER RUTH is a Power Play which can be used in your exotics.


Exacta Box: 1 w 4, 7
Daily Double: 1 3, 4, 1, 8

 
 
 
19    15    10    8   
 
 
 
J M S T 
J M T W 
J L T W 
I T 
CD-2 7f DIRT                   8 Horses
(11:00) A              ALW 3YUP $52,700
P# dd ex p3 p4 t s     ML   WP    TVL  
 3 HEAVENLY CHORUS     5/2  29%   5/2  
 4 RILEY TUCKER        9/5  25%   3/1  
 1 IZANAGI             5/1  17%   5/1  
 8 READY'S ROCKET     15/1  14%   6/1  



 
 
 
17    16    11   
 
 
 
I J M T W 
C J T W 
J T 
CD-3 1m1/16 DIRT              11 Horses
(11:30) C              MSW 3YUP $48,300
P# dd ex p3 t s        ML   WP    TVL  
 2 EAGLE POISE         3/1  25%   3/1  
 6 PROSPECTIVE LOVE    8/1  25%   3/1 
 7 GOLD BREW           4/1  17%   5/1  
PROSPECTIVE LOVE is a Longshot Value Bet.



 
 
 
18    9    8   
 
 
 
C I J P T 
C S 
D J W 
CD-4 1m1/16 DIRT               9 Horses
(12:04) A              ALW 3YUP $50,200
P# dd ex p3 p4 t s     ML   WP    TVL  
 6 BROTHER KEITH       4/1  36%   9/5 $
 1 NORTHERN PRINCE     2/1  20%   4/1  
 5 ZIEGFELD            5/1  18%   9/2  
BROTHER KEITH is a Value Bet.



 
 
 
17    13    9    9    8   
 
 
 
I J T W 
I J T W 
J L 
C G M W 

CD-5 1mile TURF               14 Horses
(12:39) A       ALW 80,000 3YUP $55,300
P# dd ex p3 t s        ML   WP    TVL  
 1 WHY TONTO           7/2  25%   3/1  
 7 PICK SIX            6/1  18%   9/2  
 4 ARTIC CRY           2/1  14%   6/1  
 3 MR MACCOOL         20/1  14%   6/1  
 2 DESERT WHEAT        6/1  13%   7/1  



 
 
 
21    12    12    9   
 
 
 
C D H J S T 
H J T W 
J T 
J W 
CD-6 7f DIRT                   9 Horses
(1:21) A              GR2 4YUP $250,000
P# dd ex p3 p6 t s     ML   WP    TVL  
 3 KODIAK KOWBOY       8/5  29%   5/2  
 9 SOK SOK             5/2  17%   5/1  
 6 ACCREDIT            8/1  17%   5/1  
 1 MY PAL CHARLIE      6/1  14%   6/1  



 
 
 
16    14    11    8   
 
 
 
C D J S T 
H J T W 
J M W 
I T W 
CD-7 7.5f DIRT                10 Horses
(2:11) A              GR3 F 3Y $100,000
P# dd ex p3 t s        ML   WP    TVL  
 4 FOUR GIFTS          3/1  22%   7/2  
 1 JUST JENDA          4/1  18%   9/2  
 9 LARAGH              5/1  14%   6/1  
 7 LOVEYOU EVERYBODY  15/1  13%   7/1  



 
 
 
21    18    12    12   
 
 
 
D G J M T 
I J T 
J T W 
C G J T 
CD-8 1mile TURF               11 Horses
(3:03) A          GR2 F/M 3YUP $200,000
P# dd ex p3 p4 t s     ML   WP    TVL  
 2 VISIT               7/2  20%   4/1  
11 DAWN AFTER DAWN    10/1  17%   5/1  
 6 SUGAR MINT          6/1  13%   7/1  
 5 ZEE ZEE             8/1  13%   7/1  



 
 
 
23    20    13    14   
 
 
 
C H I J M T 
D H J M T W 
H J W 
D H I J W 
CD-9 7f DIRT                   9 Horses
(3:57) A          GR1 F/M 4YUP $300,000
P# dd ex p3 t s        ML   WP    TVL  
 9 GAME FACE           2/1  25%   3/1  
 3 INFORMED DECISION   9/5  22%   7/2  
 5 SECRET GYPSY        7/2  14%   6/1  
 7 ROYALE MICHELE     10/1  14%   6/1  



 
 
 
31    16    14   
 
 
 
C D G H I J M S W 
G J W 
H J T 
CD-10 1m-1/8 TURF             10 Horses
(4:52) A              GR1 3YUP $500,000
P# dd ex p3 p4 t s     ML   WP    TVL  
 6 EINSTEIN            2/1  29%   5/2  
 4 COURT VISION        7/2  14%   6/1  
 8 COWBOY CAL          5/1  14%   6/1  



 
 
 
20   
 
 
 
H J M T W 
CD-11 1m-1/4 DIRT             20 Horses
(6:24) A              GR1 3Y $2,000,000
P# dd ex p3 t s        ML   WP    TVL  
16 PIONEEROF THE NIL   4/1  14%   6/1  


Daily Double: 16 1

 
 
 
18    8    6    5   
 
 
 
I J P 
C J T 
M W 
J T 
CD-12 7f DIRT                  9 Horses
(7:04) B               ALW F 3Y $50,200
P# dd ex t s           ML   WP    TVL  
 1 LUSTER              5/2  36%   9/5 
 8 PASSION DU COEUR    7/2  17%   5/1  
 3 KNOCKOUT BERTIE     9/2  14%   6/1  
 4 EAST BREAKS         5/1  13%   7/1  
LUSTER is a Power Play which can be used in your exotics.


Exacta Box: 1 w 8, 3, 4
Daily Double: 1 6, 2, 17

 
 
 
9    8    8   
 
 
 
D G J 
J L 
I J P 
CD-13 1m1/16 TURF             17 Horses
(7:34) C               MSW 3YUP $48,300
P# ex t s              ML   WP    TVL  
 6 JUST RIGHT          7/2  14%   6/1  
 2 AMBERGRIS CAYE     10/1  14%   6/1  
17 CITIZENS BRIGADE   12/1  14%   6/1  



DEFINITIONS:
P#Program Number
MLMorning Line - track handicapper's early estimate of probable post-time odds
WPWin Probability - the horse's chance of winning the race
 NOTE: a WP of 25% means this win contender has a 75% chance of not winning, and you will need 3/1 to break-even on this wager.
TVLTHOROUGHBRED VALULINE - the "fair" odds or "break-even" odds that you need to offset the risk of losing
Thumbs Up (Strong Favorite) - our top-ranked win contender that passes our stringent test for most likely winner and must be "keyed" in all exotic wagers, regardless of price
Power Play - our top-ranked win contender, rated below our Thumbs Up, which can be used in your exotics.
$Value Bet - a high-ranked win contender which is under-valued on the Morning Line; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.
Longshot Value Bet - a win contender whose Morning Line is a 100% overlay to its TVL odds; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.
Monster Value Bet - a win contender whose Morning Line is 10/1, or higher, and is a 100% overlay to its TVL odds; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.
Stop - Chaos - Pass Race
eEntry - Combined win probability of all horses in entry
A-B-C-DRace Grade (quality and reliability of information); "A" is best
Win Contender's Strength Rating: Superior 20 up; Good 13-19; Average 8-12; Marginal 1-7
 
POSITIVE FACTORS:
ANotable Auction price
CPurse winnings at this Course (track) are 50% above the average for this field.
DPurse winnings at this Distance are 50% above the average for this field.
FNotable stud Fee
GPurse winnings on the Grass are 50% above the average for this field.
HHigh win percentage - this horse has won 40% or more of lifetime starts.
IPerformance Index - this horse has Valuline's top speed rating.
JTop Jockey - wins over 18% or earns more than $7500 per mount
LFirst-time Lasix
MOutstanding Money won this field - money won is 100% above the average for this field.
PSuperior early Pace
SSuperior late Speed
TTop Trainer - wins over 20% or earns more than $9500 per start
WOutstanding Workout pattern


GUIDE TO USING THE VALULINE

What is The Valuline?

It is a short list of the most likely winners.

These "selections" are the best in the industry, as measured by the:

"WIN FACTOR" =  #winners

#races
 ÷ #win contenders

#horses entered
For example, 6 winners in 9 races, listing only 1/3 of the horses entered on today's card, yields a WIN FACTOR of 2.0, twice the expected value, and now the industry standard by which all handicappers are measured.

The Valuline (TVL) is generated by a complex computer program, which scientifically evaluates all the past performances of each horse in every race. In addition to reviewing the entire history of each horse, the computer also weighs the success of jockeys and trainers, determining each horse's true chance of winning, and converting its win probability into a betting line (TVL).    TVL = [(1/WP) - 1]

Founded by two university professors of economics and statistics, you can read about their background on "About Us" at www.thevaluline.com.

Making and Keeping Profits at the Races

To profit at the races over time, you must bet on overlays, that is, win contenders whose track odds exceed their true chances of winning.

Among the legitimate contenders, the best horse is not necessarily the best bet. In fact, often the best horse is over-bet, and we must look to the second-, third-, or fourth-best horse to win at a price.

The TVL tells you what odds to accept on each of the win contenders. The objective is to make "value bets".

NOTE: All Value Bets require actual track odds to be higher than TVL odds.

BETTING STRATEGIES

  1. Basic Strategy

    Bet to win on overlays to the TVL.

    The horses are ranked by their chance of winning (WP). However, do not bet by rank. The betting strategy is to bet the horse whose track odds is most above TVL odds (largest overlay):

    In the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, June 7, 2008, BIG BROWN was upset by overlay value bet, DA'TARA at 38/1 paying $79.00 to win:

    BEL-11 1m-1/2 DIRT             9 Horses
    (3:25 PT) A           GR1 3Y $1,000,000
    P# dd ex p3 t s        ML   WP    TVL   Track Odds
     1 BIG BROWN           2/5  36%   9/5    1/5
     7 TALE OF EKATI      20/1  14%   6/1   14/1
     6 DA'TARA            30/1  14%   6/1   38/1 LARGEST OVERLAY
  2. The Single Value Bet

    If only one of the win contenders is an overlay, this is the value bet:

    At Hollywood Park on Wednesday, June 4, 2008, eight horses ran in the third race. DEVILS AFLEET, the winner, was the obvious value bet paying $11.00. MEDZENDEEKRON, the public favorite, ran second completing a $31.20 exacta:

    HOL-3 6f TURF                  8 Horses
    (2:23) A        ALW 62,500 3YUP $54,000
    P# dd ex q p3 p6 t s   ML   WP    TVL   Track Odds
     2 DEVILS AFLEET       3/1  38%   8/5 $ 9/2 SINGLE VALUE BET
     1 MEDZENDEEKRON       5/2  25%   3/1   8/5
  3. Multiple Value Bets

    When there is more than one overlay, we pass the race unless there is a standout overlay.

    Horse "C" is the value bet in the following example:

        Horse    TVL Odds    Track Odds
          A        8/5          9/5
          B        5/2          3/1
          C        5/1         15/1  STANDOUT OVERLAY

  4. Exotic Value Bets

    1. A value bet can be "saved" behind the favorite in an exacta.

    2. A value bet can be used in a daily double.

    3. A value bet can be used with our other win contenders in an exacta, quinella, or trifecta.

    4. A value bet can lead to a good payoff in a pick 3.

    5. Pick 6: This longshot bet may be worth the investment, if there are two or three keys (Thumbs Up or Power Plays) and value bets in the sequence.

    NOTE: A "key" horse is the economical way to bet the exotics: one key triggers recommended daily double and exacta bets; two keys trigger pick 3 and pick 4 bets; three keys trigger pick 5 and pick 6 bets.

    The founders of The Valuline™, Dr. Johnson and Dr. Kenley, encourage your comments and would like to hear of your success. Contact them at kenley@pacbell.net


    The Valuline's

    PACE AND SPEED REPORT

    Churchill Downs - Saturday - May 2, 2009

    Definition:Pace:Early runner likely to be near the lead at the first call.
    Definition:Speed:Late runner with competitive final time.

    Pace and Speed are "snapshots" of a horse race, the Pace snapshot taken during the first half of the race, and the Speed snapshot taken in the stretch run. The picture which best predicts the outcome depends on today's track bias, if any.

    As the contest unfolds, the "pace" horse has the advantage, and the horses near the lead have the best chance of winning the race. But a competitive pace duel, or a tiring track, can "set it up" for the horse whose running is done late, the "speed" of the race.

    Through a computer simulation of all of The Valuline's handicapping factors, the most likely runner at the first call is provided (Pace Report), and also the most likely runner in the stretch (Speed Report).

    If the front-runners are winning, favor the pace horses. If the closers are winning, favor the speed horses. A horse with both pace and speed is always a threat.

    CD-1   6f  Dirt    Eight Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    3
    RAPOSA
    1
    MOTHER RUTH*
     
    CD-2   7f  Dirt    Eight Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    4
    8
    RILEY TUCKER
    READY'S ROCKET
    3
    HEAVENLY CHORUS
     
    CD-3   1m1/16  Dirt    Eleven Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    1
    8
    FIVE BOROUGHS
    GOLD SCHLEIGER
    2
    7
    EAGLE POISE
    GOLD BREW
     
    CD-4   1m1/16  Dirt    Nine Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    6
    BROTHER KEITH
    1
    NORTHERN PRINCE
     
    CD-5   1mile  Turf    Fourteen Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    1
    4
    WHY TONTO
    ARTIC CRY
    3
    2
    MR MACCOOL
    DESERT WHEAT
     
    CD-6   7f  Dirt    Nine Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    6
    7
    ACCREDIT
    HEWITTS
    3
    KODIAK KOWBOY
     
    CD-7   7.5f  Dirt    Ten Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    8
    3
    LADY'S LAUGHTER
    C. S. SILK
    4
    FOUR GIFTS
     
    CD-8   1mile  Turf    Eleven Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    11
    6
    DAWN AFTER DAWN
    SUGAR MINT
    2
    7
    VISIT
    BALLYMORE LADY
     
    CD-9   7f  Dirt    Nine Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    5
    7
    SECRET GYPSY
    ROYALE MICHELE
    9
    3
    GAME FACE
    INFORMED DECISION
     
    CD-10   1m-1/8  Turf    Ten Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    8
    COWBOY CAL
    6
    EINSTEIN*
     
    CD-11   1m-1/4  Dirt    Twenty Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    7
    13
    PAPA CLEM
    I WANT REVENGE
       
     
    CD-12   7f  Dirt    Nine Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    1
    LUSTER+
    3
    KNOCKOUT BERTIE
     
    CD-13   1m1/16  Turf    Seventeen Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    17
    CITIZENS BRIGADE
    15
    9
    SOLDERO
    GLOSS
    Note:
    + Also has competitive Speed
    * Also has competitive Pace

    Copyright © 2009 JOHNSON, KENLEY & ASSOCIATES INC. ("JKA") All rights reserved. PO Box 7198, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067. This is a report of THE THOROUGHBRED ODDS LINE TM which is the proprietary property of JKA and is licensed to one user. Reproduction, distribution, or transfer of this product or the information contained herein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of JKA. JKA prepares this product based upon information available and assumes no obligation to supply updates. JKA makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results or outcomes from the use of this product. (J3E)