Churchill Downs selections - Michael Nunamaker
Churchill Downs Saturday May 2, 2009
Race #1
Proficiency: Samples=4753 W%=34.9 Net=1.99 Net4+=2.14
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 MOTHER RUTH 3-2 74 90 0.00
3 RAPOSA 5-1 73 87 2.70
5 BRITANNIA ROSE 7-1 77 93 3.66
8 SECRET HUMOR 11-1 no starts 4.60
4 AWESOME GRANNIE 13-1 no starts 4.91
Commentary
MOTHER RUTH Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
RAPOSA Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
BRITANNIA ROSE Pace advantage.
SECRET HUMOR I like the workouts.
AWESOME GRANNIE Workout within three days helps.
Race #2
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 RILEY TUCKER 3-1 77 89 0.00
3 HEAVENLY CHORUS 7-2 69 83 0.30
7 MAJOR PLEASURE 9-2 76 88 1.05
1 IZANAGI 10-1 70 83 2.52
8 READY'S ROCKET 14-1 73 82 3.15
Commentary
RILEY TUCKER Slight speed advantage.
HEAVENLY CHORUS Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
MAJOR PLEASURE Slight back speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
READY'S ROCKET Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Huge class raise will be hard. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #3
Proficiency: Samples=1661 W%=38.8 Net=2.17 Net4+=2.84
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
8 GOLD SCHLEIGER 5-2 83 96 0.00
2 EAGLE POISE 7-2 74 89 0.64
1 FIVE BOROUGHS 7-1 82 94 1.96
7 GOLD BREW 9-1 79 82 2.46
5 LUV GOV 14-1 69 77 3.44
Commentary
GOLD SCHLEIGER Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
EAGLE POISE Highest earnings per start.
FIVE BOROUGHS Speed improved in last outing.
GOLD BREW The long workout makes me feel good about this one.
LUV GOV Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
Race #4
Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 NORTHERN PRINCE 3-1 78 82 0.00
3 GLENWOOD CANYON 4-1 75 80 0.75
6 BROTHER KEITH 9-2 84 92 0.98
4 LEOPOLD BLOOM 7-1 77 86 1.80
5 ZIEGFELD 22-1 77 75 4.00
Commentary
NORTHERN PRINCE I like the workouts. Three consecutive good finishes.
GLENWOOD CANYON Modest speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes.
BROTHER KEITH Big pace advantage. Very impressive workouts. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
LEOPOLD BLOOM The recent 5F workout looks great. Huge class raise will be hard.
ZIEGFELD Huge class drop should help.
Race #5
Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 WHY TONTO 3-1 87 97 0.00
7 PICK SIX 4-1 84 87 0.81
4 ARTIC CRY 5-1 79 83 1.31
2 DESERT WHEAT 9-1 76 68 2.41
5 HYRACOTHERIUM 12-1 76 80 2.99
Commentary
WHY TONTO Modest pace advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
PICK SIX Slight speed advantage. Bid but hung in last.
ARTIC CRY Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes.
DESERT WHEAT Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #6
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 KODIAK KOWBOY 9-5 83 90 0.00
1 MY PAL CHARLIE 3-1 77 89 0.87
6 ACCREDIT 7-1 81 93 2.58
9 SOK SOK 10-1 77 92 3.49
7 HEWITTS 24-1 91 97 4.78
2 THE ROUNDHOUSE 23-1 65 83 4.84
4 IDE LIKE A DOUBLE 37-1 65 82 5.48
5 SPOTSGONE 70-1 71 81 6.27
8 SILVER EDITION 89-1 78 90 6.62
Commentary
KODIAK KOWBOY The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes.
MY PAL CHARLIE Highest earnings per start.
ACCREDIT Modest speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes.
SOK SOK Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
HEWITTS Huge pace advantage. Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #7
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 FOUR GIFTS 5-2 70 81 0.00
1 JUST JENDA 9-2 69 78 1.21
10 AUSPICIOUS 7-1 75 87 2.05
8 LADY'S LAUGHTER 9-1 77 92 2.41
5 WARRIOR MAID 15-1 71 80 3.36
3 C. S. SILK 15-1 71 87 3.42
7 LOVEYOU EVERYBODY 18-1 79 89 3.73
9 LARAGH 19-1 78 86 3.78
6 DAVE'S REVENGE 23-1 80 89 4.01
2 SHE'S EXTREME 29-1 73 86 4.40
Commentary
FOUR GIFTS Huge class drop should help.
JUST JENDA Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
AUSPICIOUS Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
LADY'S LAUGHTER Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
WARRIOR MAID Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #8
Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 VISIT (GB) 5-2 78 84 0.00
1 LEMON CHIFFON 5-1 81 94 1.42
3 TIZAQUEENA 8-1 75 69 2.23
7 BALLYMORE LADY 8-1 74 81 2.23
9 ELUSIVE LADY 10-1 75 80 2.78
6 SUGAR MINT (IRE) 14-1 85 94 3.33
11 DAWN AFTER DAWN 15-1 81 96 3.55
5 ZEE ZEE 32-1 77 87 4.67
10 RUSTIC FLAME (IRE) 47-1 75 77 5.20
4 RASIERRA 150-1 79 91 6.61
8 STEALIN' KISSES 327-1 72 74 7.59
Commentary
VISIT (GB) Modest back speed advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts.
LEMON CHIFFON Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard.
TIZAQUEENA Very impressive workouts. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
BALLYMORE LADY Three consecutive good finishes. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!!
ELUSIVE LADY Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!!
Race #9
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 INFORMED DECISION 7-5 81 91 0.00
5 SECRET GYPSY 9-2 87 95 2.45
9 GAME FACE 7-1 79 94 3.23
4 BEAR NOW 10-1 79 89 4.15
7 ROYALE MICHELE 13-1 82 89 4.62
2 DUBAI MAJESTY 16-1 83 93 4.94
1 TIZ TO DREAM 67-1 74 88 7.13
8 MODIFICATION 173-1 71 82 8.41
6 TEMPLE STREET 334-1 71 83 9.31
Commentary
INFORMED DECISION Modest speed advantage. A well worked out horse. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
SECRET GYPSY Big pace advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
GAME FACE Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Three consecutive good finishes.
BEAR NOW Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
ROYALE MICHELE Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #10
Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 EINSTEIN (BRZ) 9-2 84 86 0.00
4 COURT VISION 9-2 80 86 0.01
3 PROUDINSKY (GER) 5-1 87 83 0.12
1 ARTISTE ROYAL (IRE) 6-1 82 91 0.36
2 EL CABALLO 7-1 82 81 0.74
8 COWBOY CAL 11-1 86 93 1.79
9 ZAMBEZI SUN (GB) 28-1 85 0 3.20
5 YATE'S BLACK CAT 39-1 82 80 3.67
10 THORN SONG 64-1 91 78 4.34
7 FURTHEST LAND 97-1 80 81 4.85
Commentary
EINSTEIN (BRZ) Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class drop should help.
COURT VISION Huge class drop should help.
PROUDINSKY (GER) Slight speed advantage. Slight back speed advantage. The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes.
ARTISTE ROYAL (IRE) Long recent workout is a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard.
EL CABALLO The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!!
Race #11
Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
13 I WANT REVENGE 3-1 77 83 0.00
16 PIONEEROF THE NILE 6-1 80 84 1.54
6 FRIESAN FIRE 8-1 74 78 2.01
10 REGAL RANSOM 14-1 52 90 3.10
19 DESERT PARTY 14-1 56 90 3.13
1 WEST SIDE BERNIE 14-1 78 83 3.20
15 DUNKIRK 17-1 79 92 3.44
2 MUSKET MAN 18-1 77 81 3.59
11 CHOCOLATE CANDY 32-1 77 82 4.30
3 MR. HOT STUFF 33-1 80 85 4.35
7 PAPA CLEM 36-1 78 81 4.49
5 HOLD ME BACK 42-1 73 76 4.70
12 GENERAL QUARTERS 62-1 74 80 5.19
20 FLYING PRIVATE 120-1 81 84 5.94
4 ADVICE 132-1 75 75 6.10
17 SUMMER BIRD 148-1 75 75 6.27
14 ATOMIC RAIN 270-1 78 81 6.86
9 JOIN IN THE DANCE 348-1 78 84 7.17
8 MINE THAT BIRD 530-1 77 85 7.59
18 NOWHERE TO HIDE 999-1 74 76 8.41
Commentary
I WANT REVENGE Slight speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard.
PIONEEROF THE NILE You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard.
FRIESAN FIRE The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
REGAL RANSOM The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
DESERT PARTY The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
Race #12
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 LUSTER 6-5 79 90 0.00
3 KNOCKOUT BERTIE 5-1 72 84 2.97
8 PASSION DU COEUR 8-1 72 86 4.04
7 HONCHIS'N PONCHIS 8-1 66 84 4.06
5 LACIE SLEW 21-1 68 81 5.88
Commentary
LUSTER Huge pace advantage. Slight speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
KNOCKOUT BERTIE Highest earnings per start.
PASSION DU COEUR Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
HONCHIS'N PONCHIS Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
LACIE SLEW Long recent workout is a good sign. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #13
Proficiency: Samples=872 W%=32.5 Net=2.12 Net4+=2.75
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
9 GLOSS 5-1 72 79 0.00
6 JUST RIGHT (FR) 7-1 74 69 0.70
13 VICTORY NOTION 8-1 68 76 1.01
3 CULLINAN 10-1 82 84 1.37
4 BELGRAVE SQUARE 12-1 71 62 1.86
Commentary
GLOSS Speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
JUST RIGHT (FR) Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
VICTORY NOTION Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good finishes.
CULLINAN Pace advantage.
BELGRAVE SQUARE Best speed at this distance and surface.
Best Bet of the day
Race 12 LUSTER
Proficiency
This is a short report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace Figure
The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® speed ratings.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today.
However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating,
this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example
a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished
better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.