Churchill Downs selections - Michael Nunamaker

Churchill Downs      Saturday May 2, 2009


Race #1


Proficiency: Samples=4753 W%=34.9 Net=1.99 Net4+=2.14

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 MOTHER RUTH                  3-2       74      90      0.00   
 3 RAPOSA                       5-1       73      87      2.70   
 5 BRITANNIA ROSE               7-1       77      93      3.66   
 8 SECRET HUMOR                 11-1      no starts       4.60   
 4 AWESOME GRANNIE              13-1      no starts       4.91   
Commentary

MOTHER RUTH Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. RAPOSA Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. BRITANNIA ROSE Pace advantage. SECRET HUMOR I like the workouts. AWESOME GRANNIE Workout within three days helps.
Race #2


Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 RILEY TUCKER                 3-1       77      89      0.00   
 3 HEAVENLY CHORUS              7-2       69      83      0.30   
 7 MAJOR PLEASURE               9-2       76      88      1.05   
 1 IZANAGI                      10-1      70      83      2.52   
 8 READY'S ROCKET               14-1      73      82      3.15   
Commentary

RILEY TUCKER Slight speed advantage. HEAVENLY CHORUS Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. MAJOR PLEASURE Slight back speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. READY'S ROCKET Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Huge class raise will be hard. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=1661 W%=38.8 Net=2.17 Net4+=2.84

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 8 GOLD SCHLEIGER               5-2       83      96      0.00   
 2 EAGLE POISE                  7-2       74      89      0.64   
 1 FIVE BOROUGHS                7-1       82      94      1.96   
 7 GOLD BREW                    9-1       79      82      2.46   
 5 LUV GOV                      14-1      69      77      3.44   
Commentary

GOLD SCHLEIGER Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. EAGLE POISE Highest earnings per start. FIVE BOROUGHS Speed improved in last outing. GOLD BREW The long workout makes me feel good about this one. LUV GOV Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 NORTHERN PRINCE              3-1       78      82      0.00   
 3 GLENWOOD CANYON              4-1       75      80      0.75   
 6 BROTHER KEITH                9-2       84      92      0.98   
 4 LEOPOLD BLOOM                7-1       77      86      1.80   
 5 ZIEGFELD                     22-1      77      75      4.00   
Commentary

NORTHERN PRINCE I like the workouts. Three consecutive good finishes. GLENWOOD CANYON Modest speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. BROTHER KEITH Big pace advantage. Very impressive workouts. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. LEOPOLD BLOOM The recent 5F workout looks great. Huge class raise will be hard. ZIEGFELD Huge class drop should help.
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 WHY TONTO                    3-1       87      97      0.00   
 7 PICK SIX                     4-1       84      87      0.81   
 4 ARTIC CRY                    5-1       79      83      1.31   
 2 DESERT WHEAT                 9-1       76      68      2.41   
 5 HYRACOTHERIUM                12-1      76      80      2.99   
Commentary

WHY TONTO Modest pace advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. PICK SIX Slight speed advantage. Bid but hung in last. ARTIC CRY Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. DESERT WHEAT Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 KODIAK KOWBOY                9-5       83      90      0.00   
 1 MY PAL CHARLIE               3-1       77      89      0.87   
 6 ACCREDIT                     7-1       81      93      2.58   
 9 SOK SOK                      10-1      77      92      3.49   
 7 HEWITTS                      24-1      91      97      4.78   
 2 THE ROUNDHOUSE               23-1      65      83      4.84   
 4 IDE LIKE A DOUBLE            37-1      65      82      5.48   
 5 SPOTSGONE                    70-1      71      81      6.27   
 8 SILVER EDITION               89-1      78      90      6.62   
Commentary

KODIAK KOWBOY The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes. MY PAL CHARLIE Highest earnings per start. ACCREDIT Modest speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. SOK SOK Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. HEWITTS Huge pace advantage. Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 FOUR GIFTS                   5-2       70      81      0.00   
 1 JUST JENDA                   9-2       69      78      1.21   
10 AUSPICIOUS                   7-1       75      87      2.05   
 8 LADY'S LAUGHTER              9-1       77      92      2.41   
 5 WARRIOR MAID                 15-1      71      80      3.36   
 3 C. S. SILK                   15-1      71      87      3.42   
 7 LOVEYOU EVERYBODY            18-1      79      89      3.73   
 9 LARAGH                       19-1      78      86      3.78   
 6 DAVE'S REVENGE               23-1      80      89      4.01   
 2 SHE'S EXTREME                29-1      73      86      4.40   
Commentary

FOUR GIFTS Huge class drop should help. JUST JENDA Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. AUSPICIOUS Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. LADY'S LAUGHTER Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! WARRIOR MAID Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #8


Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 VISIT (GB)                   5-2       78      84      0.00   
 1 LEMON CHIFFON                5-1       81      94      1.42   
 3 TIZAQUEENA                   8-1       75      69      2.23   
 7 BALLYMORE LADY               8-1       74      81      2.23   
 9 ELUSIVE LADY                 10-1      75      80      2.78   
 6 SUGAR MINT (IRE)             14-1      85      94      3.33   
11 DAWN AFTER DAWN              15-1      81      96      3.55   
 5 ZEE ZEE                      32-1      77      87      4.67   
10 RUSTIC FLAME (IRE)           47-1      75      77      5.20   
 4 RASIERRA                     150-1     79      91      6.61   
 8 STEALIN' KISSES              327-1     72      74      7.59   
Commentary

VISIT (GB) Modest back speed advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. LEMON CHIFFON Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. TIZAQUEENA Very impressive workouts. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! BALLYMORE LADY Three consecutive good finishes. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!! ELUSIVE LADY Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!!
Race #9


Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 INFORMED DECISION            7-5       81      91      0.00   
 5 SECRET GYPSY                 9-2       87      95      2.45   
 9 GAME FACE                    7-1       79      94      3.23   
 4 BEAR NOW                     10-1      79      89      4.15   
 7 ROYALE MICHELE               13-1      82      89      4.62   
 2 DUBAI MAJESTY                16-1      83      93      4.94   
 1 TIZ TO DREAM                 67-1      74      88      7.13   
 8 MODIFICATION                 173-1     71      82      8.41   
 6 TEMPLE STREET                334-1     71      83      9.31   
Commentary

INFORMED DECISION Modest speed advantage. A well worked out horse. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! SECRET GYPSY Big pace advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. GAME FACE Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Three consecutive good finishes. BEAR NOW Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. ROYALE MICHELE Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #10


Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 6 EINSTEIN (BRZ)               9-2       84      86      0.00   
 4 COURT VISION                 9-2       80      86      0.01   
 3 PROUDINSKY (GER)             5-1       87      83      0.12   
 1 ARTISTE ROYAL (IRE)          6-1       82      91      0.36   
 2 EL CABALLO                   7-1       82      81      0.74   
 8 COWBOY CAL                   11-1      86      93      1.79   
 9 ZAMBEZI SUN (GB)             28-1      85      0       3.20   
 5 YATE'S BLACK CAT             39-1      82      80      3.67   
10 THORN SONG                   64-1      91      78      4.34   
 7 FURTHEST LAND                97-1      80      81      4.85   
Commentary

EINSTEIN (BRZ) Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class drop should help. COURT VISION Huge class drop should help. PROUDINSKY (GER) Slight speed advantage. Slight back speed advantage. The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. ARTISTE ROYAL (IRE) Long recent workout is a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. EL CABALLO The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!!
Race #11


Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
13 I WANT REVENGE               3-1       77      83      0.00   
16 PIONEEROF THE NILE           6-1       80      84      1.54   
 6 FRIESAN FIRE                 8-1       74      78      2.01   
10 REGAL RANSOM                 14-1      52      90      3.10   
19 DESERT PARTY                 14-1      56      90      3.13   
 1 WEST SIDE BERNIE             14-1      78      83      3.20   
15 DUNKIRK                      17-1      79      92      3.44   
 2 MUSKET MAN                   18-1      77      81      3.59   
11 CHOCOLATE CANDY              32-1      77      82      4.30   
 3 MR. HOT STUFF                33-1      80      85      4.35   
 7 PAPA CLEM                    36-1      78      81      4.49   
 5 HOLD ME BACK                 42-1      73      76      4.70   
12 GENERAL QUARTERS             62-1      74      80      5.19   
20 FLYING PRIVATE               120-1     81      84      5.94   
 4 ADVICE                       132-1     75      75      6.10   
17 SUMMER BIRD                  148-1     75      75      6.27   
14 ATOMIC RAIN                  270-1     78      81      6.86   
 9 JOIN IN THE DANCE            348-1     78      84      7.17   
 8 MINE THAT BIRD               530-1     77      85      7.59   
18 NOWHERE TO HIDE              999-1     74      76      8.41   
Commentary

I WANT REVENGE Slight speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. PIONEEROF THE NILE You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. FRIESAN FIRE The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! REGAL RANSOM The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! DESERT PARTY The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
Race #12


Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 LUSTER                       6-5       79      90      0.00   
 3 KNOCKOUT BERTIE              5-1       72      84      2.97   
 8 PASSION DU COEUR             8-1       72      86      4.04   
 7 HONCHIS'N PONCHIS            8-1       66      84      4.06   
 5 LACIE SLEW                   21-1      68      81      5.88   
Commentary

LUSTER Huge pace advantage. Slight speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. KNOCKOUT BERTIE Highest earnings per start. PASSION DU COEUR Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. HONCHIS'N PONCHIS Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. LACIE SLEW Long recent workout is a good sign. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #13


Proficiency: Samples=872 W%=32.5 Net=2.12 Net4+=2.75

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 9 GLOSS                        5-1       72      79      0.00   
 6 JUST RIGHT (FR)              7-1       74      69      0.70   
13 VICTORY NOTION               8-1       68      76      1.01   
 3 CULLINAN                     10-1      82      84      1.37   
 4 BELGRAVE SQUARE              12-1      71      62      1.86   
Commentary

GLOSS Speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! JUST RIGHT (FR) Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. VICTORY NOTION Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good finishes. CULLINAN Pace advantage. BELGRAVE SQUARE Best speed at this distance and surface.

Best Bet of the day


Race 12 LUSTER

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.