Churchill Downs - The Walker Group

	The Walker Group Leading the way towards the winner's circle at...
Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 2, 2009
Please remember to always check program numbers. Odds shown are morning line.

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $48300 Class Rating: 89

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 MOTHER RUTH 2/1
	# 8 SECRET HUMOR 8/1
	# 2 LANGILA 20/1

MOTHER RUTH has a formidable shot to take this race. Is tough not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been formidable - 92 avg - of late. Baffert and Gomez have a very good win percent together. SECRET HUMOR - Strong sire numbers will play a key role in this filly racing well. The fillies and colts of this sire have historically shown respectable gains. Lately Desormeaux has been hot which may give the edge to this filly.

Race 2 - Allowance - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $52700 Class Rating: 105

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $7,500 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $24,000 TWICE SINCE MARCH 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. $19,200 SINCE MARCH 3 ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 RILEY TUCKER 9/5
	# 7 MAJOR PLEASURE 4/1
	# 5 SARATOGA SEVEN 12/1

RILEY TUCKER should be supported as the bet in here. Investors have been noting speed increases from entries changing equipment (blinkers on today). Has been travelling very well in races of this distance, going 2 for 3 under similar conditions. Will most likely be one of the front-runners of the group going into the midpoint of the competition. MAJOR PLEASURE - Is difficult not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been decent - 99 avg - of late. Is hard not to consider given the company run in as of late.

Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $48300 Class Rating: 98

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 GOLD SCHLEIGER 8/1
	# 10 POLISHED 8/1
	# 6 PROSPECTIVE LOVE 8/1

GOLD SCHLEIGER looks to be a very good contender especially at such a decent 8/1. Last time out, this colt was up against a stronger bunch. This animal has some longshot handicapping angles going for him. Earnings per start in dirt route races is strong for this horse. POLISHED - Is a sharp contender based on figs garnered recently under today's conditions. Recent numbers for the jock - 18 win percent - make this colt stand out in this field. PROSPECTIVE LOVE - I would favor this colt on the jockey and trainer numbers alone. A nice ROI of +6 with this jockey and trainer combo.

Race 4 - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50200 Class Rating: 101

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $24,000 AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. $19,200 AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 ZIEGFELD 5/1
	# 3 GLENWOOD CANYON 5/2
	# 6 BROTHER KEITH 4/1

ZIEGFELD looks to be a competitive contender. With Dominguez uptop him, this colt should be able to break out sharply for this race. Don't let this colt slip past you. Could win at big odds. This field is much less demanding than the last one he was up against. GLENWOOD CANYON - Has posted strong Speed Figures in dirt route races in the past. Must be given consideration in this event if only for the quite good Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last affair. BROTHER KEITH - Vaunts reliable speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of horses.

Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $55300 Class Rating: 116

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $8,990 THREE TIMES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $80,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $25,800 TWICE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF IN 2009 ALLOWED 2 LBS. $22,800 AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2009 ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 ARTIC CRY 2/1
	# 7 PICK SIX 6/1
	# 9 HOLD THE SALT 10/1

ARTIC CRY is the top wager in this race. Should keep the impressive string of finishing positions intact this time around. Has posted sound Equibase Speed Figs in turf route races in the past. Leparoux has been sizzling the last month, winning at a nifty 23 percent clip. PICK SIX - He has been running strongly and the Equibase speed figs are among the top in this group. I like the jock on this horse - competitive chance to win the contest.

Race 6 - Stakes - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $250000 Class Rating: 117 Churchill Downs S. (Grade 2)

CHURCHILL DOWNS S. - GRADE 2 FOR FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $250 EACH, WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $12,500 EACH AT THE TIME OF ENTRY. $1,250 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX; $1,250 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $250,000 ADDED. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, 62% OF THE REMAINING PURSE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 ACCREDIT 8/1
	# 7 HEWITTS 8/1
	# 1 MY PAL CHARLIE 6/1

ACCREDIT has a solid shot to take this race and is a solid value-based bet given the 8/1 line. Should land in the top three without a hitch. Recent numbers for the jockey - 23 win percent - make this colt stand out in this field. I think having Leparoux ride this colt is a smart move. HEWITTS - Should compete admirably in the pace contest which bodes well with this field. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this one a solid choice. MY PAL CHARLIE - Could best this group of horses here, showing strong numbers of late. I think having Gomez ride this colt is a smart selection.

Race 7 - Stakes - 7.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 106 Eight Belles S. (Grade 3)

EIGHT BELLES S. - GRADE 3 FOR FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH, WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $5,000 AT TIME OF ENTRY. $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX; $500 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $100,000 ADDED. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, 62% OF THE REMAINING PURSE SHALL BE PAID

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 FOUR GIFTS 3/1
	# 3 C. S. SILK 5/1
	# 1 JUST JENDA 4/1

FOUR GIFTS looks competitive to best this field. She has posted strong numbers under today's conditions and will probably fare well against this group of horses. C. S. SILK - Has been racing quite well and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. JUST JENDA - Displays sound speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. A solid 99 avg Equibase class rating may give this filly a distinct class edge versus this field.

Race 8 - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $200000 Class Rating: 111 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. (Grade 2)

CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE S. - GRADE 2 FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $200 EACH, WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $10,000 AT TIME OF ENTRY. $1,000 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX; $1,000 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $200,000 ADDED. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST,

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 DAWN AFTER DAWN 10/1
	# 1 LEMON CHIFFON 6/1
	# 6 SUGAR MINT (IRE) 6/1

My selection for this race is DAWN AFTER DAWN and could score at a price in here. This mare has posted some nice finish positions in her last few starts. This animal has some longshot angles going for her. She has posted decent numbers under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this group of animals. LEMON CHIFFON - Have to assume this equine will do well again today. Overall the speed figures of this animal look decent in this race. SUGAR MINT (IRE) - Will most likely come out very strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved rapidly to the front end recently. Had one of the best speed figs of this field in her last affair.

Race 9 - Stakes - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $300000 Class Rating: 114 Humana Distaff S. (Grade 1)

HUMANA DISTAFF S. - GRADE 1 FOR FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $300 EACH, WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $15,000 EACH BY THE TIME OF ENTRY. $1,500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX; $1,500 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $300,000 ADDED. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, 62% OF THE REMAINING PURSE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 BEAR NOW 10/1
	# 5 SECRET GYPSY 7/2
	# 8 MODIFICATION 20/1

BEAR NOW figures to be the bet in here and the potential return justifies the unsafe nature of the long odds. Has earned formidable speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. The average class fig of 103 makes this horse tough to beat. Could provide positive returns based on decent recent speed figs with an average of 103. SECRET GYPSY - She ought to be given a shot given the quite good speed figs. Should compete soundly in the early speed contest which bodes well with this field.

Race 10 - Stakes - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $500000 Class Rating: 121 Woodford ReserveTurf Classic S. (Grade 1)

WOODFORD RESERVETURF CLASSIC S. - GRADE 1 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH ON OR BEFORE FEBRUARY 14, 2009 OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $25,000 EACH AT THE TIME OF ENTRY. $2,500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX; $2,500 ADDITIONAL TO START WITH $500,000 ADDED. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, 62% OF THE REMAINING PURSE SHALL BE PAID

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 EINSTEIN (BRZ) 2/1
	# 3 PROUDINSKY (GER) 6/1
	# 2 EL CABALLO 12/1

EINSTEIN (BRZ) looks to be the wager in here. Leparoux has solid numbers that point to this horse to be a solid contender. Has run quite well when racing a turf route race. This horse obviously likes the distance, going 6 out of 16 in his races as of late. PROUDINSKY (GER) - This horse has been constatntly running well in his latest outings. Trainer boasts sharp win numbers at this distance and surface. EL CABALLO - Should land on the board without any problem. Looks strong against this group and will probably be one of the leaders.

Race 11 - Stakes - 10.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $2000000 Class Rating: 124 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Grade 1)

KENTUCKY DERBY PRESENTED BY YUM! BRANDS - GRADE 1 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS. WITH AN ENTRY FEE OF $25,000 EACH AND A STARTING FEE OF $25,000 EACH.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 PAPA CLEM 20/1
	# 13 I WANT REVENGE 3/1
	# 16 PIONEEROF THE NILE 4/1

PAPA CLEM looks to be a strong contender and could score at a price in here. Bejarano has one of the best rider ROI's on the grounds, returning to wagerers +13 percent. The average class fig alone makes this horse a solid choice. Has been consistently racing well lately. I WANT REVENGE - With a reliable return on investment of +1 this handler has shown competitive results with entries running at this distance and surface. Has been constatntly running well recently. PIONEEROF THE NILE - Must be given a shot based on the competitive speed rating posted in the last race. Has been constatntly running well lately.

Race 12 - Allowance - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50200 Class Rating: 94

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $22,800 SINCE MARCH 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. $19,200 SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 LUSTER 5/2
	# 7 HONCHIS'N PONCHIS 8/1
	# 3 KNOCKOUT BERTIE 9/2

LUSTER looks to be the bet in here. Displays the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 90 speed rating which is one of the top in this group. Recorded a very strong speed rating last time out. Is worth thinking about and may be a wager - strong speed figures (94 average) at today's distance and surface recently. HONCHIS'N PONCHIS - Could best this field based on the speed rating - 87 - of her last race. Looks to have a decent class edge based on the recent company kept. KNOCKOUT BERTIE - This pony enters today's contest with second time Lasix. Lanerie will most likely be able to get this filly to break out early in this competition.

Race 13 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $48300 Class Rating: 95

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. ALL STARTERS FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST WILL RECEIVE $1,000 IF THE RACE STARTS WITH TEN RUNNERS OR MORE).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 JUST RIGHT (FR) 7/2
	# 3 CULLINAN 3/1
	# 14 CALIMONCO 6/1

JUST RIGHT (FR) is my choice. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a strong angle. This one ranks at the top in this lot. Appears to have a strong class edge based on the latest company kept. Has been running admirably and has among the most favorable speed in the race for today's distance. CULLINAN - Could best this field here, showing competitive numbers of late. Has been running in the most competitive company of the field as of late. CALIMONCO - Surely will improve with change in blinkers (going on) today. Will almost certainly come out strong - I have liked the way this colt has moved promptly to the lead recently.