Turf Club Analysts
Champagne
Churchill Downs - Saturday, May 2, 2009

Congratulations! You've got winners! The Turf Club Analysts will provide you with some sound gambling recommendations. Follow our gambling tips and you'll be well on your way to living the high life. Well, maybe not quite that big, but we can definitely promise you a great time. Hope you win all of your photo finishes! Good luck!

Cash

Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 3 - #8 GOLD SCHLEIGER (ML=8/1)

Today's Live Longshot: Race 11 - #7 PAPA CLEM (ML=20/1)


Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #1 - Post: 10:30am - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $48300 Class Rating: 89

Rating: Golden DollarGolden Dollar

Choice Plays:

#1 MOTHER RUTH (ML=2/1)
#3 RAPOSA (ML=3/1)


MOTHER RUTH - This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a high winning percentage, right around 34. Trainer Baffert moves this one down the class ladder to face a lower level today. Look for a strong effort this time out. Rider hops up on after getting to know the mount by riding last time out. That's always a good thing. Ranked number one in EPS (earnings per start). Another sign that this animal is the class of the race. I believe this thoroughbred will be right there at the wire. Gets Lasix for the 2nd time, so Baffert must have confidence in her. This horse's last race was at Santa Anita. Finished second, but had a pretty good chunk of the win pool. Could be dangerous in this race. RAPOSA - When a horse finishes on the board as often as this filly does, you will usually want to use her in your exotic wagers. I like to invest in this handicapping theory, a campaigner coming back off a strong outing within the last month or so. You have to consider the solid works of late.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 AWESOME GRANNIE (ML=5/1), #5 BRITANNIA ROSE (ML=5/1), #6 KEY PLAY (ML=6/1),

AWESOME GRANNIE - I just don't possess a positive feeling about this mount in this affair. BRITANNIA ROSE - Today's race is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint race in the last two months. Not the greatest of indicators. KEY PLAY - I just don't possess a positive sensation about this entrant in this contest.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - RAPOSA - Racing pattern would suggest this racer is fit for today's race. Should do well.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#1 MOTHER RUTH is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #2 - Post: 11:00am - Allowance - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $52700 Class Rating: 105

Rating: Golden Dollar

Choice Plays:

#4 RILEY TUCKER (ML=9/5)
#3 HEAVENLY CHORUS (ML=5/2)
#5 SARATOGA SEVEN (ML=12/1)


RILEY TUCKER - That last work tells me this colt is set for a top race. Likes to go to the head of the pack and the fact that today is a shorter distance should help. Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. HEAVENLY CHORUS - This jockey and handler have a beneficial return on investment when they unite. Handicapping information show this campaigner with three improving speed ratings. Albarado should be on a live horse in this race. SARATOGA SEVEN - I expect this horse to bewilder some railbirds today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MAJOR PLEASURE (ML=4/1), #1 IZANAGI (ML=5/1),

MAJOR PLEASURE - This gelding hasn't had any strong finishes in short distance events in the last sixty days. IZANAGI - This entrant didn't race too well last time out finishing sixth. No reason to expect a reversal of fortune in today's race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #5 SARATOGA SEVEN to win if we can get at least 9/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

4 with [3,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[3,4,5] with [3,4,5] with [3,4,5,6,8] with [3,4,5,6,8] Total Cost: $36

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #3 - Post: 11:30am - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $48300 Class Rating: 98

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

Choice Plays:

#8 GOLD SCHLEIGER (ML=8/1)


GOLD SCHLEIGER - This colt is in excellent physical condition right now. Finished second in the last race and comes back soon. Came home fast last time around the track at Santa Anita. That type of move bodes well for his chances in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 EAGLE POISE (ML=3/1), #7 GOLD BREW (ML=4/1), #5 LUV GOV (ML=6/1),

EAGLE POISE - I'm prognosticating a less than stellar go out of him this time around. GOLD BREW - This runner ran a run-of-the-mill rating last time out. He shouldn't improve and will likely suffer defeat in today's race running that figure. May bounce off of that last extreme effort. LUV GOV - Just don't figure that he is pegged at the proper price at the expected odds.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - GOLD SCHLEIGER - Comparing last speed ratings in this field, nobody beats this colt. Tops in the field with a last speed rating of 113 on April 9th.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#8 GOLD SCHLEIGER is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

8 with [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

8 with [5,7] with [2,5,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

8 with [2,5,7] with [2,5,6,7,10] with [2,5,6,7,10] Total Cost: $36

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #4 - Post: 12:04pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50200 Class Rating: 101

Rating: Golden Dollar

Choice Plays:

#3 GLENWOOD CANYON (ML=5/2)
#8 MAGENTA LIGHT (AUS) (ML=20/1)
#5 ZIEGFELD (ML=5/1)
#1 NORTHERN PRINCE (ML=2/1)
#6 BROTHER KEITH (ML=4/1)


GLENWOOD CANYON - Just see his last speed rating, 106. That one fits well in this bunch. MAGENTA LIGHT (AUS) - Estvanko brings him right back. I recommend you stay with this live gelding. ZIEGFELD - Dominguez and Romans teamed up together are a horse gambler's friend. NORTHERN PRINCE - Dropping 6 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today. BROTHER KEITH - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a solid effort on Apr 3rd. When a horse drops at least 5 lbs (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but should be helpful.

Vulnerable Contenders: No Vulnerable Contenders in this race,



Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MAGENTA LIGHT (AUS) - Posting a better speed rating each of his last couple of races. This gelding is a prime candidate to win today.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #8 MAGENTA LIGHT (AUS) on the win end if we get at least 7/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,8] Box [5,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

[3,5,8] with [1,3,5,6,8] with [1,3,5,6,8] Total Cost: $36

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[3,8] with [3,5,8] with [1,3,5,6,8] with [1,3,5,6,8] Total Cost: $24

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #5 - Post: 12:39pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $55300 Class Rating: 116

Rating: Golden DollarGolden Dollar

Choice Plays:

#5 HYRACOTHERIUM (ML=12/1)
#7 PICK SIX (ML=6/1)
#1 WHY TONTO (ML=7/2)


HYRACOTHERIUM - A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a nice contest is a good omen. This horse likes to win on different tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. PICK SIX - You'll be making money right and left by turning your gambling cash onto this rider/handler combination. I like to invest in this angle, a pony coming back off a good race within the last thirty days. WHY TONTO - This colt is in fine form. Ran second on Apr 11th. This colt has been working out well, and the recent bullet work says he's primed for a big race today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 ARTIC CRY (ML=2/1), #2 DESERT WHEAT (ML=6/1), #8 GENTLEMAN CHESTER (ML=8/1),

ARTIC CRY - Don't believe this horse has what it takes to be victorious today. DESERT WHEAT - This vulnerable equine ran a quite unimpressive speed rating last time out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably suffer defeat today running that figure. GENTLEMAN CHESTER - Finished second in his most recent effort with a common speed fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #5 HYRACOTHERIUM to win if we can get at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,5,7] with [1,5,7] with [1,2,5,7,12] with [1,2,5,7,12] Total Cost: $36

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #6 - Post: 1:21pm - Stakes - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $250000 Class Rating: 117 Churchill Downs S. (Grade 2)

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

Choice Plays:

#6 ACCREDIT (ML=8/1)
#3 KODIAK KOWBOY (ML=8/5)
#7 HEWITTS (ML=8/1)
#1 MY PAL CHARLIE (ML=6/1)


ACCREDIT - This thoroughbred coming off a nice try in the last 30 days is a win candidate in my humble opinion. The recent bullet 47.8 work should put this colt on track for today's race. This horse likes to win on different tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. KODIAK KOWBOY - Have to like the way Jones has raced this colt back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. This thoroughbred has shown the capability to win at different racing venues. Making the move from Aqueduct for today's event, I have to believe he's ready to run. This colt is in fine form. Ran first on Apr 4th. Earnings per start is something that I think can be a vital factor. This horse is ranked number 1 in this field. HEWITTS - This horse didn't run well on the soft turf in his last race around the track at Keeneland. You may want to discount that performance. MY PAL CHARLIE - I like to wager on this handicapping angle, a pony coming back off a nice race within the last 30 days. Classic angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. This one is live today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 SOK SOK (ML=5/2),

SOK SOK - This mount ran a most unsatisfactory speed rating last time around the track. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely suffer defeat in today's event running that number.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #6 ACCREDIT to win if we can get at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,7] Box [1,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #7 - Post: 2:11pm - Stakes - 7.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 106 Eight Belles S. (Grade 3)

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

Choice Plays:

#1 JUST JENDA (ML=4/1)
#3 C. S. SILK (ML=5/1)
#4 FOUR GIFTS (ML=3/1)
#10 AUSPICIOUS (ML=9/2)
#7 LOVEYOU EVERYBODY (ML=15/1)


JUST JENDA - I like this filly a lot here. She shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. This filly is in good condition, having run a nice race on April 5th, finishing third. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. This horse likes to win at different tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. This filly's last fig is good enough to triumph here, I'll invest in her right back this time around. C. S. SILK - I'm optimistic this filly will run well today. Last prep was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me she's sharp right now. Nice return on investment for this jock and conditioner duo. I have to figure that today's shorter distance should help this filly. FOUR GIFTS - 'Bridge' and his horse make quite a tandem. Together they've been winning at a clip of 50 percent. A little change in scenery has got to do this one well. Reading the PPs, it seems like she likes to visit the winner's circle on different racing tracks. Look for this filly to run lots better in this race. Last contest at Fair Grounds finishing fourth on a sloppy track is no sign of her true ability. AUSPICIOUS - Asmussen has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to be careful of the longer priced half. Don't often see a lucrative return on investment like +30. This rider/conditioner twosome has done well together over the last 12 months. LOVEYOU EVERYBODY - Mena rode this horse for the first time last out and comes right back this time. Mena and McPeek perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +271 return on investment for a jock and handler.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 LARAGH (ML=5/1),

LARAGH - Equibase speed figures tell a story of lessening form.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#1 JUST JENDA is the play if we get odds of 9/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,3] with [1,3,4] with [1,3,4,7,10] with [1,3,4,7,10] Total Cost: $24

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #8 - Post: 3:03pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $200000 Class Rating: 111 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. (Grade 2)

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

Choice Plays:

#1 LEMON CHIFFON (ML=6/1)
#11 DAWN AFTER DAWN (ML=10/1)
#7 BALLYMORE LADY (ML=9/2)
#2 VISIT (GB) (ML=7/2)
#6 SUGAR MINT (IRE) (ML=6/1)


LEMON CHIFFON - In this race here, this horse has earned the highest speed figure at the distance, so I have to give her the edge. Have to make this mare a win candidate; she comes off a sharp effort on Apr 9th. Changes tracks from last out at Santa Anita to here. Multiple wins on different tracks tell me this horse likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign. DAWN AFTER DAWN - Sadler has a very solid win pct in turf routes. This mare should be fit and ready to go. BALLYMORE LADY - A little change in scenery has got to do this thoroughbred well. Reading the PP lines, it seems like she likes to visit the winner's circle at different racing venues. This horse may have too much power on the turf for the rest of the field. Coming out of the turn for home, she could put these away. Look at this pattern of improvement. 103/107/110 are the last 3 speed figures. VISIT (GB) - This filly was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think she's ready for today's event. I'm focusing on the class of this thoroughbred, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. She has the uppermost earnings per race entered. Take a good look at this animal. SUGAR MINT (IRE) - This horse gets shipped over here after showing true class at a major foreign venue. A good sign in my opinion. Ran a sizzling time for the last quarter on March 19th at Santa Anita. Anything close in this field should get the job done.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 ELUSIVE LADY (ML=5/1), #5 ZEE ZEE (ML=8/1), #3 TIZAQUEENA (ML=8/1),

ELUSIVE LADY - Pace makes the race. Difficult for this early speedball to be able to manage the pressured pace from the rest of this field. ZEE ZEE - Pace is so important, and this speed merchant is going to have a ding-dong battle on her hands. TIZAQUEENA - This filly didn't show me enough down the stretch run to warrant backing against tougher competition.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - DAWN AFTER DAWN - Although she ran fourth on Apr 12th, the try wasn't half bad. Expect a good performance this time.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#1 LEMON CHIFFON is the play if we get odds of 6/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,7,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

[1,7,11] with [1,2,6,7,11] with [1,2,6,7,11] Total Cost: $36

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,11] with [1,7,11] with [1,2,6,7,11] with [1,2,6,7,11] Total Cost: $24

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #9 - Post: 3:57pm - Stakes - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $300000 Class Rating: 114 Humana Distaff S. (Grade 1)

Rating: Golden Dollar

Choice Plays:

#5 SECRET GYPSY (ML=7/2)
#4 BEAR NOW (ML=10/1)
#3 INFORMED DECISION (ML=9/5)
#9 GAME FACE (ML=2/1)
#7 ROYALE MICHELE (ML=10/1)


SECRET GYPSY - This filly is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. Sophisticated selectors will tell you that this horse has strong pace. Changes tracks from last out at Aqueduct to here. Multiple wins on different ovals tell me this thoroughbred likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign. BEAR NOW - This mare is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. Three consecutive improved speed ratings (94-109-111) make this animal a solid contender. INFORMED DECISION - Changes tracks from last out at Keeneland to here. Multiple wins on different tracks tell me this thoroughbred likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign. This filly is in good condition. Finished first on Apr 9th. Three consecutive improved speed figs (100-110-114) make this one a dominant contender. This filly's last figure garnered on April 9th is at the top in last race speed ratings. Ranked numero uno in earnings per start. Another notice that this horse has the class to win today. GAME FACE - I took a look at this filly's finishes. She's almost always in the money. A little change in scenery has got to do this one well. Reading the recent past performance lines, it seems like she likes to visit the winner's circle at multiple tracks. This thoroughbred has done very well at this distance. ROYALE MICHELE - Based on workouts, I look for this filly to run a big race. This filly is a gem of consistency, almost always in the top three. This thoroughbred has shown the class ability to win at different tracks. Making the move from Aqueduct for today's event, I have to believe she's ready to run. It would be wise to check this filly's odds close to post time. I noticed she's won a few times at double-digit odds.

Vulnerable Contenders: No Vulnerable Contenders in this race,





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #4 BEAR NOW to win if you can get odds of 8/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,5] Box [4,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[4,5] with [3,4,5] with [3,4,5,7,9] with [3,4,5,7,9] Total Cost: $24

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #10 - Post: 4:52pm - Stakes - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $500000 Class Rating: 121 Woodford ReserveTurf Classic S. (Grade 1)

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

Choice Plays:

#3 PROUDINSKY (GER) (ML=6/1)
#9 ZAMBEZI SUN (GB) (ML=10/1)
#4 COURT VISION (ML=7/2)
#5 YATE'S BLACK CAT (ML=20/1)


PROUDINSKY (GER) - This horse has the top turf figure in his last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here animal has a good chance. This jock and trainer's horses have been generating a favorable return on investment. That 119 fig this horse garnered in his last affair tells me he's a main player this time around. The outside post position didn't help this horse's chances last time out at Fair Grounds. Today's inside post position should be just fine. ZAMBEZI SUN (GB) - I figure 'Bobby' is making a good move here. This horse can only be aided by the shorter trip. This horse has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of 'Bobby'. Better be careful of this angle. This horse has run well at major foreign tracks, and ships in for today's race. Could be tough to beat. COURT VISION - Nice return on investment for this jockey and conditioner duet. This horse likes to win at multiple tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. Last raced at Santa Anita with a poor post. I swiped some data from The Brain, and his computer says the inside should be a big help to this one today. YATE'S BLACK CAT - Horse's win percentage is better than 50 percent in first and second starts off a layoff. Always watch out for the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 EINSTEIN (BRZ) (ML=2/1), #8 COWBOY CAL (ML=5/1), #1 ARTISTE ROYAL (IRE) (ML=6/1),

EINSTEIN (BRZ) - This pony ran a disappointing speed rating last out. He shouldn't run better and will probably get beat today running that rating. COWBOY CAL - It looks like too much speed is signed up in this clash. This speed merchant will probably get baked up front. ARTISTE ROYAL (IRE) - The third place finish position in the last event was not the greatest.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - ZAMBEZI SUN (GB) - In today's race this mount owns the best average class number. He is one of the top contenders against these ponies.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #3 PROUDINSKY (GER) to win if you can get at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #11 - Post: 6:24pm - Stakes - 10.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $2000000 Class Rating: 124 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Grade 1)

Rating: Golden DollarGolden Dollar

Choice Plays:

#7 PAPA CLEM (ML=20/1)
#13 I WANT REVENGE (ML=3/1)
#16 PIONEEROF THE NILE (ML=4/1)
#2 MUSKET MAN (ML=20/1)


PAPA CLEM - When this rider and handler join forces you have to take a look. Bejarano and Stute have been great together. This colt is in first-rate physical condition right now. Finished first last time around the track and comes back soon. I WANT REVENGE - This colt is in good physical condition. Finished first on Apr 4th. Looking at this colt's running lines, I see he's almost always in-the-money. Mullins seems to have this colt primed for a big effort. His workout pattern is great. PIONEEROF THE NILE - I like to play this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid effort within the last month. Baffert moves this one here to Churchill Downs from Santa Anita. Looking at the horse's PPs, he has shown the ability to win on different tracks. MUSKET MAN - Rider jumped on this colt's back for the 1st attempt on Apr 4th. Should know the horse even better this race. Nice return on investment for this rider and trainer duo. Have to give this colt a shot. Ran a sharp race last out within the last month. This horse likes to win at multiple tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call.

Vulnerable Contenders: #15 DUNKIRK (ML=4/1), #6 FRIESAN FIRE (ML=5/1),

DUNKIRK - When examining today's class rating, he will have to register a better speed rating than last out to be competitive in this dirt route. FRIESAN FIRE - While Equibase's speed ratings are solid, I would ignore the high one from the March 14th in the slop. Some horses just run well on the off going. This colt recorded a speed fig in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #7 PAPA CLEM to win if we can get at least 6/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [7,13] Box [7,16] Box [2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #12 - Post: 7:04pm - Allowance - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50200 Class Rating: 94

Rating: Golden Dollar

Choice Plays:

#1 LUSTER (ML=5/2)
#4 EAST BREAKS (ML=5/1)
#7 HONCHIS'N PONCHIS (ML=8/1)
#3 KNOCKOUT BERTIE (ML=9/2)


LUSTER - The 94 latest race speed figure looks mighty good in the TrackMaster PPs. Have to give this filly a chance. Ran a good race last time out within the last month. Getting a break of 5 pounds from last race at Keeneland. She should make the most of this advantage. EAST BREAKS - Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone speedy sort facing sluggish sorts today. I think the shorter trip will help this filly stay the distance. HONCHIS'N PONCHIS - The jock and conditioner combination have a positive ROI when they join forces. Recent speed ratings show dominant pattern of improvement. KNOCKOUT BERTIE - I expect a big performance from this filly today. She ran a huge race at big odds when she made her debut on March 12th. Don't often see a positive return on investment like +94. This rider/trainer twosome has done well together over the last twelve months. This animal collects a lot of cash per start. Tops in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 PASSION DU COEUR (ML=7/2), #5 LACIE SLEW (ML=5/1),

PASSION DU COEUR - Usually I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in short distance events in order to support her. Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any sort of closing talent on Mar 8th. LACIE SLEW - Tough for this closer animal to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone front speed is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done. The speed figure last race out doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this horse as a likely underlay.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#7 HONCHIS'N PONCHIS is going to be the play if we are getting 8/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #13 - Post: 7:34pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $48300 Class Rating: 95

Rating: Golden Dollar

Choice Plays:

#3 CULLINAN (ML=3/1)
#9 GLOSS (ML=12/1)
#6 JUST RIGHT (FR) (ML=7/2)
#13 VICTORY NOTION (ML=6/1)


CULLINAN - Average class figure is tops in this field. I think that is a big edge for a turf race. At the top of the lane is when this one will make a strong move. A fantastic chance to be the victor. Adding blinkers sometimes leads to a better performance on the racetrack. This racer broke from the outside at Keeneland last time out, racing 1 1/16 miles, but is getting a low draw in this race, which should help his chances today. GLOSS - You have to like this horse changing from dirt to turf for the first time. He finished on the board on a sluggish dirt track on Mar 29th. A sign he may take to turf. Got to appreciate a good work horse. This gelding's last work was second fastest of the day for the distance. This animal has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 87 to 91 to 93 in succession. JUST RIGHT (FR) - Lots of positive 'vibes' connected with this pony and his connections. VICTORY NOTION - This gelding had an excellent move mid-race on Nov 16th but hung down the lane. Should see improvement against these horses today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #14 CALIMONCO (ML=6/1), #10 DELTA EMPERATOR (ML=8/1), #8 BOYHOOD DREAM (ML=8/1),

CALIMONCO - Hard to take this less than sharp equine at the odds after the result (ninth) in the last race. Registered a substandard fig last out in a Maiden Special race on April 4th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that fig. DELTA EMPERATOR - Doesn't appear to have enough good qualities to justify the price. BOYHOOD DREAM - 8/1 odds isn't enough for this participant when checking the most recent showings. When looking at today's class figure, he will have to record a much better speed rating than last time out to compete in this turf route.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #9 GLOSS on the nose if you can get odds of 7/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,9] Box [9,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None




Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.

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