Hollywood Park selections - Michael Nunamaker
Hollywood Park Sunday December 16, 2007
Race #1
Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 BARTOK'S BLING 3-1 77 90 0.00
5 AUNT PINK 7-2 75 84 0.15
2 ROCKET KITTY 4-1 80 83 0.59
1 LUPITA'SLUCKYANGEL 6-1 76 88 1.22
4 BEYOND THE MARK 10-1 71 81 2.28
Commentary
BARTOK'S BLING Highest earnings per start at today's track.
AUNT PINK Modest speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
ROCKET KITTY Big pace advantage. Slight back speed advantage. Long recent workout is a good sign. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
LUPITA'SLUCKYANGEL You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
BEYOND THE MARK Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #2
Proficiency: Samples=3269 W%=33.9 Net=1.94 Net4+=1.92
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 HIGH INVESTMENT 5-2 75 89 0.00
6 LONELY HIGHWAY 4-1 75 82 0.88
10 ROCK CREEK PASS 9-1 79 93 2.59
2 BEYOND BOUNDRIES 10-1 77 89 2.90
3 KICKIN CAPER 10-1 80 88 2.93
Commentary
HIGH INVESTMENT Speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes.
LONELY HIGHWAY Back speed advantage. Bid but hung in last.
ROCK CREEK PASS Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Huge class drop should help.
BEYOND BOUNDRIES You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Huge class drop should help.
KICKIN CAPER Pace advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class drop should help. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!!
Race #3
Proficiency: Samples=1758 W%=40.9 Net=2.19 Net4+=2.73
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 GOOD MAN DAN 6-5 79 93 0.00
5 KINDACATCHY 8-1 74 90 3.99
6 WARRENS FLYIN HIGH 8-1 75 88 4.01
1 TIDE WATER BOBBY 8-1 65 81 4.14
7 TRANSVAAL SCOTTISH 15-1 73 83 5.32
Commentary
GOOD MAN DAN Big pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
KINDACATCHY Highest earnings per start at today's distance.
WARRENS FLYIN HIGH Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Was closer to the lead in last.
TIDE WATER BOBBY Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #4
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 O BEE NAKI 5-2 76 90 0.00
2 HIGH SPEED GOLDIE 3-1 69 86 0.68
7 BOLD CLEO 7-1 74 90 2.31
6 IN MY LIFE 7-1 73 89 2.35
4 SIZZLING SARAH 16-1 71 85 4.04
Commentary
O BEE NAKI Slight speed advantage.
HIGH SPEED GOLDIE Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good finishes.
BOLD CLEO A well worked out horse. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
IN MY LIFE Speed improved in last outing.
SIZZLING SARAH Modest back speed advantage. The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #5
Proficiency: Samples=2835 W%=36.4 Net=1.96 Net4+=2.00
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
9 TWELVE TWENTY TWO 7-5 75 91 0.00
4 B R'S GIRL 3-1 72 86 2.06
1 WICKEDNWACKYINGRID 10-1 81 100 4.70
10 SILVER GLADE 11-1 72 85 5.13
6 LOVELY COOL 26-1 no starts 6.66
Commentary
TWELVE TWENTY TWO Back speed advantage. Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Showed surprise early speed in last. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
B R'S GIRL Speed advantage.
WICKEDNWACKYINGRID Pace advantage.
SILVER GLADE Very impressive workouts. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
LOVELY COOL The recent 5F workout looks great.
Race #6
Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
8 ANGEL CRAFT 7-2 79 82 0.00
1 NOOTKA ISLAND 9-2 79 85 0.87
5 SHE'S AN ELEVEN 7-1 75 82 1.39
3 HONNETE 7-1 75 83 1.48
2 PAT THE COOL CAT 7-1 80 91 1.49
Commentary
ANGEL CRAFT Modest back speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
NOOTKA ISLAND Slight speed advantage.
SHE'S AN ELEVEN Showed surprise early speed in last.
HONNETE Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Showed surprise early speed in last. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
PAT THE COOL CAT Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #7
Proficiency: Samples=4753 W%=34.9 Net=1.99 Net4+=2.14
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 OCEANOGRAPHY 2-1 82 88 0.00
4 BANNER LODGE 6-1 78 87 2.44
11 INFINITE RESOURCE 10-1 80 93 3.76
3 JUST JULIAN 12-1 75 88 4.00
5 SPANKEY COME HOME 13-1 75 89 4.19
Commentary
OCEANOGRAPHY Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Very impressive workouts. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
BANNER LODGE The recent 5F workout looks great.
INFINITE RESOURCE Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it.
JUST JULIAN Bid but hung in last.
SPANKEY COME HOME Speed improved in last outing.
Race #8
Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
12 CITRONNADE 7-2 85 80 0.00
4 BLACK MAMBA (NZ) 7-2 82 88 0.03
2 MERIBEL 9-2 78 85 0.44
3 HUCKING HOT (GB) 14-1 71 85 2.68
5 FOXYSOX (GB) 15-1 79 82 2.85
11 LIVE LIFE (FR) 15-1 86 93 2.88
8 MEMORETTE 18-1 79 81 3.10
6 LAVENDER SKY 28-1 74 83 3.72
10 TRICK'S PIC 29-1 81 87 3.76
1 SHERMEEN (IRE) 52-1 75 84 4.56
7 MARIETTA 57-1 78 79 4.68
Commentary
CITRONNADE Modest speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. I like the workouts. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Huge class drop should help.
BLACK MAMBA (NZ) Long recent workout is a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes.
MERIBEL Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
HUCKING HOT (GB) Long recent workout is a good sign. Showed surprise early speed in last. Huge class raise will be hard.
FOXYSOX (GB) A well worked out horse. Was closer to the lead in last.
Race #9
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 PHOEBE'S SONG 2-1 72 88 0.00
3 THEMIS VALENTINE 9-2 77 93 1.61
5 CAPTURE THE CAT 5-1 81 95 1.89
8 HEY BEAUTIFUL 9-1 76 92 3.01
6 SEA DRIVER 10-1 74 90 3.34
Commentary
PHOEBE'S SONG Best speed at this distance and surface.
THEMIS VALENTINE Speed improved in last outing.
CAPTURE THE CAT Modest pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
HEY BEAUTIFUL The recent 5F workout looks great. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
SEA DRIVER Highest average purse value.
Race #10
Proficiency: Samples=2563 W%=32.2 Net=2.02 Net4+=2.75
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 WARREN'S HONEY 5-2 76 90 0.00
4 DANCING MICA 6-1 80 93 1.97
3 ALL DONE UP 7-1 73 86 2.38
5 SONG OF ILLINOIS 7-1 65 78 2.44
6 MUD SWEAT 'N TEARS 9-1 75 88 3.13
Commentary
WARREN'S HONEY Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Huge class drop should help.
DANCING MICA Pace advantage. Huge class drop should help.
ALL DONE UP Highest earnings per start at today's track.
SONG OF ILLINOIS The long workout makes me feel good about this one.
Best Bet of the day
Race 3 GOOD MAN DAN
Proficiency
This is a short report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace Figure
The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® speed ratings.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today.
However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating,
this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example
a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished
better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.