Arlington Park selections - Michael Nunamaker
Arlington Park Sunday July 4, 2010
Race #1
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 MARIKITTEN 8-5 80 86 0.00
6 PURE POLISHED 5-1 68 82 2.25
4 SUAVE DOTTIE M. 7-1 72 82 2.95
3 SKY N MIGHTY 9-1 73 85 3.41
2 WESTERN SWEEP 12-1 64 80 4.13
Commentary
MARIKITTEN Huge pace advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
PURE POLISHED Slight speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
SUAVE DOTTIE M. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
SKY N MIGHTY Showed surprise early speed in last. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
WESTERN SWEEP No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
Race #2
Proficiency: Samples=650 W%=31.2 Net=2.25 Net4+=3.12
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 COMITATUS 3-1 77 90 0.00
1 APPLESOLUTELY WILD 6-1 75 84 1.32
5 BELAFONTE 6-1 76 95 1.47
3 DOGWOODS LANCE 9-1 73 83 2.32
2 ZERO GRAVITY 10-1 80 89 2.40
Commentary
COMITATUS Slight speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
APPLESOLUTELY WILD Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
BELAFONTE Bid but hung in last.
ZERO GRAVITY Big pace advantage. Long recent workout is a good sign.
Race #3
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
9 COOL LION 3-1 62 77 0.00
1 CAMPO 7-2 77 88 0.42
3 COUNTY CLERK 4-1 71 82 0.54
6 DOUGHNUT MAN 9-1 75 87 2.03
7 IRON ROGUE 10-1 71 83 2.54
Commentary
COOL LION Slight speed advantage.
CAMPO Modest pace advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
COUNTY CLERK Slight back speed advantage.
DOUGHNUT MAN Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
IRON ROGUE Highest earnings per start lifetime.
Race #4
Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 CORREDOR DELA ISLA 4-1 74 77 0.00
3 TOM ARCHDEACON 9-2 72 64 0.27
7 BELFAST 5-1 74 72 0.51
1 ECONOMIC BAILOUT 7-1 71 70 1.05
4 GROUND HERO 8-1 81 80 1.34
Commentary
CORREDOR DELA ISLA Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
TOM ARCHDEACON Highest average purse value.
BELFAST Speed improved in last outing.
GROUND HERO Modest speed advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #5
Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 ASTUTE 7-2 78 67 0.00
5 VERSAILLES ROAD 4-1 77 86 0.34
2 TUCKY 5-1 72 69 0.74
3 PARTY KING 6-1 73 79 1.05
4 MUSICSTREET MENACE 6-1 73 69 1.10
Commentary
ASTUTE Slight pace advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
VERSAILLES ROAD Looks to have an early speed advantage.
TUCKY Modest speed advantage.
PARTY KING Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #6
Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
10 COUNT DE BARAN 2-1 71 71 0.00
1 YONA TORY 8-1 69 74 2.86
5 DINO DOMINIC 8-1 73 77 2.91
3 COWBOY AT HEART 8-1 69 80 2.91
6 B K WINKS 10-1 71 74 3.48
Commentary
COUNT DE BARAN Big speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage.
YONA TORY No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
DINO DOMINIC Modest pace advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
COWBOY AT HEART Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
B K WINKS Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #7
Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 CRUISIN'NTHEBRIDLE 7-2 68 77 0.00
2 FRIENDLY SELECTION 4-1 70 76 0.36
4 ADMISSIBLE 5-1 76 74 0.82
1 BILL'S PRESENCE 7-1 78 84 1.37
9 MISS M V P 8-1 77 84 1.52
Commentary
CRUISIN'NTHEBRIDLE You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
FRIENDLY SELECTION Showed surprise early speed in last. Huge class raise will be hard.
ADMISSIBLE Highest earnings per start.
BILL'S PRESENCE Bid but hung in last.
MISS M V P Slight speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #8
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 INFORMED DECISION 7-5 80 88 0.00
3 SECRET KIN 9-2 71 84 2.31
8 HOOH WHY 7-1 76 87 3.09
5 NEVER RETREAT 8-1 70 74 3.43
2 MINEWANDER 18-1 71 89 4.97
7 LOOKALIKE 28-1 71 84 5.50
6 RINTERVAL (IRE) 28-1 69 82 5.55
1 DIAMOND SONG 40-1 76 89 6.05
Commentary
INFORMED DECISION Big pace advantage. Big back speed advantage. The recent 5F workout looks great. Many many wins. A great sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
SECRET KIN Three consecutive good finishes.
NEVER RETREAT Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #9
Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 COLOR ME BLUE 5-2 69 84 0.00
5 TAZZ 3-1 69 77 0.64
8 STRIKING HIGHT 6-1 76 69 1.92
6 TIMELESS FACTS 15-1 72 77 3.83
4 RICH CITY DUDE 16-1 80 74 3.92
Commentary
COLOR ME BLUE Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
TAZZ Best speed at this distance and surface.
STRIKING HIGHT Highest average purse value.
TIMELESS FACTS Speed improved in last outing.
RICH CITY DUDE Big pace advantage. Huge class drop should help. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
Race #10
Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 TROIS DESIR 8-5 70 86 0.00
4 DAKOTA METT 9-2 76 84 2.07
2 TO THE MOON 6-1 71 84 2.71
7 PLATINUM HUNTER 13-1 66 82 4.41
5 HEZA BOXER 14-1 61 73 4.49
Commentary
TROIS DESIR Looks to have an early speed advantage.
DAKOTA METT Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes.
TO THE MOON Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
PLATINUM HUNTER Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it.
HEZA BOXER Speed improved in last outing.
Best Bet of the day
Race 6 COUNT DE BARAN
Proficiency
This is a short report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace Figure
The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® speed ratings.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today.
However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating,
this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example
a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished
better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.