Selections by Ellis Starr for Santa Anita – Thursday 03/12/09
Mission Statement:
To help you be a better handicapper and bettor and at
the same time keep you in the game with uncommon selections and
analysis.
Motto:
"Friends don't let friends bet chalk."
Guide to using these selections and
analysis: The horses
listed in BOLD at the top of each
race section are the horses I think have the highest probability to win ('win
contenders'). I list them according to my preference and with fair odds for
determining the threshold for making win bets. Fair odds are a guide. The best way to
use this report is to consider win bets at or above fair odds, starting with the
top choice. If a horse is listed as a 'win contender' but below fair odds it
still can be used in other ways to profit, such as in the exacta. When
considering exactas remember that the 2nd best 'win contender' isn't necessarily
the best horse to run second, so even though I rank horses in order that doesn't
mean they will, or won't, finish in that order. When I feel an exacta is
warranted I specifically say so.
Guide to
Ratings:
- Race is predictable but may not offer much opportunity
for profit, or is unpredictable but offers opportunity for profit if the
returns are high enough.
- Race presents an average (decent) profit opportunity
depending on the potential returns.
- Race that presents an exceptional profit opportunity,
not necessarily that any particular horse in the race does. These races
usually have vulnerable favorites, contenders at high odds, or both. Whether
any horse or horses in the race present exceptional opportunity will depend on
the odds and potential returns.
You can get
detailed selections & analysis like this daily at www.trackmaster.com and www.equibase.com
Always Check
Program Numbers
Race #1 - Rating =
1
#1 Free Flying Soul - Fair
odds 2/1
#2 Wild Heart -
Fair odds 2/1
Free Flying
Soul
comes back from 9 ½ months off, still well regarded in a straight maiden race,
Solis up for Headley a big sign she can run to any of a quartet of recent solid
workouts and win. Wild Heart also
shows some rock solid drills of late, making her debut for Baffert with the only
knock that Bob is using Rios, only 6 for 87 at the meeting and 0 for 3 to date
for Bob. Still, if this filly runs to either her 2/20 or 2/28 five furlong gate
drills she can win.
Race #2 - Rating =
1
#3 Rare Nugget - Fair
odds 6/5
Rare Nugget
missed by a head on the wire last out over the track just 11 days ago and
returning quickly out of that race and off the Mitchell claim and confidently
raised in class it looks very likely she’ll run back to her race prior to that
on 1/10 over the track when romping by almost 3 lengths under Gomez, who rides
her here.
Race #3 - Rating =
1
#8 Zephaniah - Fair
odds 2/1
Exactas:
8 with 2,3,6 and 2,3,6 with 8
2 is
Swingin Jim, 3 is My T Quick and 4 is 6 is Warrens
Stormalert
Zephaniah
moves from open maiden claimers to Cal-breds, a slight drop in class that should
enable him to make up the ½ length he lost by last out on 2/19 over the track,
with another reason to improve being this is his 3rd start off a
layoff.
Race #4 - Rating =
1
#1 Sorry Baby - Fair
odds 2/1
#6 Voodoo's Vision -
Fair odds 3/1
Sorry Baby
rallied from 8th early to miss the win by a half length at the end
last out at this 6 ½ furlong trip over the track but versus 50K claimers.
Dropping to the 32K level today and having won her last 2 main track sprints
before that, she appears very tough to beat in this situation with Rosario in the saddle as
he was for both of her career wins. Voodoo’s
Vision put
it all together last out to win over the track on 2/13 after a fine runner-up
effort a month earlier, the only two times Gomez rode her in her career, Garrett
riding back today for another step forward in form making her the other possible
winner of this event.
Race #5 - Rating =
2
#10 Wild Apart - Fair
odds 3/1
#2 Speedski -
Fair odds 7/2
#7 Flew First Class - Fair
odds 4/1
Exactas:
10 with 2,7,11,12 and 2,7,11,12 with 10 then also 2 with 7,11,12 and 7,11,12
with 2
11 is
Waddup G and 12 is Melody Makin
Wild Apart gets
the good outside for this downhill turf trip, coming off a big win by 3 ½
lengths from off the pace on the main track under Smith, who rides back, the
filly a perfect fit at this non-winners of 2 level after breaking her maiden
last out and very capable of putting in another “A” effort good enough to win
evidenced by a strong best of 34, 59.2 five furlong workout since that last
race. Speedski is
the horse Wild Apart ran down late to win on 1/30, with Speedski coming right
back to lead from start to finish on 2/25, Sutherland up for both excellent
efforts and back again. With a potential early speed edge Speedski has every
right to hang on all the way to the wire, or as occurred on 1/30 to get passed
late by Wild Apart and complete the exacta. Flew First
Class has
downhill experience others in here lack, having finished fourth of 9 last out
with trouble at the critical 1/16 mark as well as having faced much tougher open
(not restricted by wins) claimers, so finding these non-winners of 2 lifetime
types easier and with Rosario riding her back after getting to know her last out
she’s got a big shot to run back to her maiden claiming win two before last when
rallying from 4th and to get up in time or to be part of the exacta
here.
Race #6 - Rating =
1
#2 Miralo - Fair
odds 7/2
#5 John G C -
Fair odds 9/2
With
Fair the Storm, Eddie the Hat and maybe Thunderfrmdownundr all wanting the lead
from the start and at any cost, Miralo is
one of two that should be in a position to rally and win, the gelding having
come back from 5 months off on 2/5 likely to improve nicely 2nd off
the layoff and 2nd ever in a maiden claimer. John G C is a
first time starter and since most that have run have run badly he’s got a shot
to run well with a consistent pattern of works and for a low profile trainer who
is 1 for 5 in the past year with first timers in maiden claiming situations.
Race #7 - Rating =
3
#6 Liberian Freighter/ 11 Asperity - Fair
odds 5/2 -
uncoupled entry
#10 Porto Santo -
Fair odds 7/2
#3 Talkin to Mom Roo - Fair
odds 4/1
#8 Safety Zone -
Fair odds 9/2
Exacta:
Box
3,6,8,10,11 (with 11 Asperity an also-eligible this will likely
end up being a four horse box)
This
is a stakes quality field racing at the classified allowance level, many of
these having missed or skipped recent stakes and a few of them trying to regain
confidence (and form) before moving back to stakes company. That being said, a
horse like grade 1 stakes winner Mast Track must be looked at with suspicion (in
terms of betting) as he’s trying to run the taxing and tactical distance of a
mile on turf off a 4 ½ month layoff in pretty tough company. Another graded
stakes winner, Monterey Jazz, is wed to a “need the lead” running style, fine
from his 2 post if not for the fact Yacht Spotter will also want the lead and at
any price, with also-eligibles A Cat Named Snipe and Booyah in front of pressing
the pace from poor outside posts.
Having
shown that he DOES NOT need the lead last out for the first time in months,
Liberian
Freighter gets
top billing, part of an uncoupled Drysdale entry with Asperity, who
is another also-eligible. Liberian Freighter was ridden by Bejarano last out for
the first time in 9 months, Rafael having ridden the gelding to back-to-back
wins in turf routes last April and May. After being overmatched in January in
the Sunshine Millions Turf and after almost 3 months off coming into the
Sunshine Millions, Liberian Freighter ran a winning race even though coming up a
head shy of winning to Medzendeekron on the wire, the reason being the return of
Bejarano to the saddle and probably as importantly the removal of blinkers. With
a huge 123 Equibase Speed Figure earned in that near win at this mile turf trip
over this course last out, Liberian Freighter may not do much more than repeat
that effort to emerge victorious today. Asperity must
be bet as well if he draws into the race, coming off a strong won on 1/18 over
the course in his 2nd start off a layoff, Rosario up for the
1st time and riding him back, the horse being a closer to not
disadvantaged by the outside post in this situation, helped out by the likely
hot and contested early pace. With a 110 figure last out to be improved upon
Asperity could post the upset here or at the least outrun very high odds if he
goes. Porto
Santo was
purchased privately by IEAH Stables (Big Brown, Stardom Bound, Patena) after
winning on 12/3 at this identical classified allowance level, Espinoza up then
as now, the horse running poorly off that change on 12/27 when 8th
and last at 4 to 1, but with a big shot to rebound in his 2nd start
for Frankel as he shows a strong 3rd best of 46 four furlong workout
coming into the race and has the running style to not be badly hampered by his
outside post. Talkin to Mom
Roo has
been first or 2nd in 9 of 16 career races, most notably winning the
last time he raced this mile turf trip, in December 2007, stretching out off a
sprint just like he’s doing here. Overmatched in the G2 Palos Verdes on the main
track last out but with a pair of runner-up efforts sprinting before that,
Talkin to Mom Roo has a more than decent shot to stretch out and run back to his
last mile turf effort which would make him very competitive here. Safety Zone
missed by 1 ¼ lengths last out on 1/18 over the course at 9 furlongs, actually a
career best effort, and he won the last two times before that he ran on turf so
making his 2nd start at the meeting and with improving to do because
of it he rounds out our quintet of contenders in this event.
Race #8 - Rating =
1
#8 Fever Reliever - Fair
odds 4/1
Exactas:
8 with 2,6,11,12,13 and 2,6,11,12,13 with 8
2 is
Classic Demand, 6 is Joint Agreement, 11 is Stylin Deputy, 12 is Samantha’s Rule
and 13 is Miss Cherry
Fever
Reliever is
one of few in here that has yet to lose at this bottom 25K maiden claiming
condition, a big plus in this situation, and if he runs back to his last race
following a layoff like the one he’s coming back from today, having finished a
fine 2nd on 10/22 to
much tougher off a rest, he should get his picture taken in the winners’ circle
today.