Selections
by Ellis Starr for Hollywood Park – Sunday 12/16/07
Mission Statement:
To help you be a better handicapper and bettor and at
the same time keep you in the game with uncommon selections and
analysis.
Motto:
"Friends don't let friends bet chalk."
Guide to using these
selections and analysis: The horses
listed in BOLD at the top of each
race section are the horses I think have the highest probability to win ('win
contenders'). I list them according to my preference and with fair odds for
determining the threshold for making win bets. Fair odds are a guide. The best way to
use this report is to consider win bets at or above fair odds, starting with the
top choice. If a horse is listed as a 'win contender' but below fair odds it
still can be used in other ways to profit, such as in the exacta. When
considering exactas remember that the 2nd best 'win contender' isn't necessarily
the best horse to run second, so even though I rank horses in order that doesn't
mean they will, or won't, finish in that order. When I feel an exacta is
warranted I specifically say so.
Guide to
Ratings:
- Race is predictable but may not offer much opportunity
for profit, or is unpredictable but offers opportunity for profit if the
returns are high enough.
- Race presents an average (decent) profit opportunity
depending on the potential returns.
- Race that presents an exceptional profit opportunity,
not necessarily that any particular horse in the race does. These races
usually have vulnerable favorites, contenders at high odds, or both. Whether
any horse or horses in the race present exceptional opportunity will depend on
the odds and potential returns.
Go to www.trackmaster.com or www.equibase.com to get
detailed selections & analysis like this daily
Always Check Program
Numbers
Race #1 -
Rating = 1
#3
Bartok's Bling -
Fair
odds 2/1
The
opener is as easy to pass as to play, with Bartok’s
Bling the
only horse worth considering for any kind of wager. She won by almost 3 in a
sprint one before last off the Shulman claim with Gomez aboard, then she
stretched out to two turns last out at this nw1x allowance level for Cal-Breds
and finished 2nd, Garrett up for that race too. In her 2nd
turf route in a row she should be even stronger and make up the length and a
half she was beaten last out to win.
Race #2 -
Rating = 1
#1
Brother Pegasus -
Fair
odds 4/1
In
another race as easy to pass as to play, we can eliminate 7 entrants as having
lost at the basement 25K mcl level. With Beyond Boundries, Kickin Caper and Rock
Creek Pass all wanting the lead from the start at any cost, Brother
Pegasus
can save ground from the rail and rally to win, dropping to the level from
maiden special and making his 3rd career start, 2nd in a
route and 2nd at the meet, with Smith riding back a good enough sign
that he’s got enough ability to win.
Race #3 -
Rating = 1
#7
Transvaal Scotch -
Fair
odds 2/1
Transvaal
Scotch
won nicely off a layoff on 10/11 and comes back from a layoff today. The win
came with Solis in the saddle and Alex gets back on after a one race absence,
with the gelding getting a good outside post and making it likely he can go by
them all in the stretch for his 2nd win in his last 3
races.
Race #4 -
Rating = 2
#7
Bold Cleo -
Fair
odds 7/2
#2
High Speed Goldie
-
Fair odds 7/2
#1
O Bee Naki -
Fair
odds 7/2
#6
In My Life
-
Fair odds 7/2
Exactas:
7 with 1,2,6 and 1,2,6 with 7 and 1 with 2,6,7 and 2,6,7 with
1
Bold
Cleo
runs 2nd off the trainer change to Koriner and 2nd off a 3
½ month layoff, with Brian getting a nice winner having similar credentials on
Thursday. With Espinoza riding the filly back sending a strong signal of vast
improvement coming, Bold Cleo looks good to notch her 4th win of the
year and run back to her smart win right before the layoff. High Speed
Goldie
rallied from 4th to get to within a head of the lead in the stretch
last out at the level then tired a bit to get 3rd. With the runner-up
having come back to win and with High Speed Goldie cutting back to a sprint to
give her some extra stamina she should be a part of the exacta at the least
here. O Bee
Naki
shoots for her 3rd straight win, both at the meet and with Garcia up,
who rides her back. She may have hit her class ceiling as all of her last 3 wins
have come at the 10K level, not this 12,500 level, but in her current form she
must be respected. In My
Life
has been first or second in 7 of 15 sprints this year, and coming off a nice
runner up effort over the track to similar is yet another to be respected at the
least when considering our exacta plays.
Race #5 -
Rating = 2
#10
Silver Glade -
Fair
odds 7/2
#4
B R's Girl
-
Fair odds 7/2
#6
Lovely Cool -
Fair
odds 7/2
With
FOUR of these having nothing on their minds except having the lead from the
start AND at any cost, the three above should have a big shot at the major
awards when the smoke clears after the hotly contested early pace. Silver
Glade
finished 4th of 8 in her debut in July at Delaware Park for top
trainer Motion, and rested 4 months and still well regarded as she returns in a
maiden allowance race, with Bejarano up and a fine recent work over the track,
she should show us a lot of improvement and run well enough to win. B R’s
Girl
finished well for 2nd in her first start in blinkers and in a sprint
one before last, and cutting back to one turn after a route and with a sharp four furlong workout as her most
recent coming into the race should run as well, or better than in that last
sprint, and that means she should be in the thick of it at the end. Lovely
Cool
debuts for Hofmans, who doesn’t win often with first timers but has been known
to, so with Leparoux riding and with this filly working very well for a trainer
that normally doesn’t work his horses fast she rounds out our trio to consider
for our wagers in this event.
Race #6 -
Rating = 3
#4
Steelin' -
Fair
odds 2/1
#2
Pat the Cool Cat
-
Fair odds 2/1
Exactas:
4 with 2,3,8 and 2,3,8 with 4 THEN ALSO 2 with 3,8 and 3,8 with
2
3
is Honete, 8 is Angel Craft
With
Steelin’
and
Pat the
Cool Cat
having a combined 5 for 8 record on turf in their careers, they are the keys to
profit in the race. Steelin is 4 for 12 this year and won two in a row, the
latter of the two a route at the one lower nw1x allowance level, before being
overmatched in a stakes last out. Back where she belongs and repeating that
11/18 effort on this turf course she’s going to be tough. Pat the
Cool Cat
won two in a row recently as well, both sprints, the latter at the nw1x level,
then she ran 3rd at this level in a turf sprint last out. Bred to do
just as well running two turns, making her 3rd start off a layoff,
often a peak effort, Pat the Cool Cat would be no surprise bringing her career
record to 4 for 5 with a victory in this race.
Race #7 -
Rating = 2
#11
Infinite Resource -
Fair
odds 3/1
#7
Oceanography
-
Fair odds 3/1
#6
Ron Bob and Dave -
Fair
odds 3/1
#4
Banner Lodge
-
Fair odds 3/1
Any
of the 4 above can win, so we’ll look to the tote board to help us decide which
one or two make the best bets. Infinite
Resource broke
BADLY in his 11/23 debut, 13th and last, rushing up to be
3rd and within a length at the quarter mile mark, into a sizzling
pace at 21.8. Still 2nd running into the stretch, only a length off
the lead, he tired late as might be expected with a bad break and rushing up.
With a clean break today, after showing that nice ability last out, he may be
the one to beat. Oceanography
missed by a neck in his debut in October at Keeneland in a highly rated race and
he could be in another league if he improves off that effort as he might in his
2nd career start. Ron Bob
and Dave
makes his debut for Ron Ellis off a fine series of consistent and reasonably
fast works, Talamo riding a good sign this gelding can add to Ron’s fine record
of 7 for 30 with first timers this year and last. Banner
Lodge
missed by a neck on the wire last out in his 2nd career start, Gomez
up for the first time, the colt’s first start after 3 months off. Logically
improving 2nd off the layoff he rounds out our quartet of potential
maiden breakers here.
Race #8 -
Rating = 3
#3
Hucking Hot -
Fair
odds 2/1
#9
Nashoba's Key
-
Fair odds 2/1
#12
Citronnade -
Fair
odds 2/1
Exactas:
Box 3,9 Box 3,12 (no reason to box the two favorites)
I
am banking on history repeating itself, in that in 2006 Citronnade won the
Skirball Stakes on 11/12 then won the G2 San Gorgonio Handicap. On November 10
of this year, Hucking
Hot
won the Skirball and now attempts to win her first G2 race, and I think she can
do it as her last 2 races have both been career bests. There is no real way to
knock either Nashoba’s
Key,
who did not like the soft turf at Monmouth, or Citronnade,
BUT with both getting potentially disadvantageous outside posts, particularly
poor for Citronnade who is mostly a horse that needs the lead, Hucking Hot seems
like a horse well worth the risk here for a win bet and as the key on exacta
tickets, using all 3 on any pick 3 or pick 4 tickets we
play.
Race #9 -
Rating = 1
#5
Capture the Cat -
Fair
odds 5/2
#8
Hey Beautiful
-
Fair odds 5/2
Five
of these, including the rail sitter, should want the lead, leading to a hotly
contested and hot pace. Capture
the Cat
gets slight preference, having come from off the pace to win by 3 lengths over
this track in June, then laying off for 5 months and showing a bit too much
early speed, tiring late. With a jockey change should come a return to an off
the pace style and a repeat of her June victory. Hey
Beautiful
won nicely from off the pace on 11/21 in her 2nd career start, first
ever on Cushion Track and first after 9 months off. With every right to improve
in her 2nd start off the rest and a perfect fit at this non-winners
of 2 lifetime level after a maiden claiming win last out, she’s the other that
deserves consideration for any and all wagers we make involving this
race.
Race #10 -
Rating = 1
#1a
Warren's Honey - Fair
odds 7/2
#3
All Done Up
-
Fair odds 7/2
#4
Song of Illinois -
Fair
odds 7/2
#5
Mud Sweat'n Tears
-
Fair odds 7/2
Warren’s
Honey
drops into a maiden claimer for the first time, the most significant drop in
racing. With a great post, Baze riding back as he has in both of her career
starts, and with enough ability shown when 3rd in her debut, she gets
top billing to run well enough to break her maiden here. All Done
Up
finished 3rd in her debut on 11/22, a head in front of Song of
Illinois,
and both have improving to do in their 2nd career starts, enough so
to be in the thick of it at the end. Mud
Sweat’n Tears
finished 4th of 13 in her debut on 11/28 at the level and has a lot
of improving to do as well for the sharp Sherman barn and with Bejarano riding
back.
You can get
detailed selections & analysis like this daily at www.trackmaster.com and www.equibase.com
You can
reach me by email addressed to estarr@ellisstarr.com
Explanation of common terms.
Wheel- Using one horse as a key selection
with all the horses in a certain wager. An exacta wheel using the #1 horse would
consist of 1 over all the others.
Part Wheel- Similar to a wheel but
it does not include the entire field.
Back Wheel-
Using a horse in the second/place position in the exacta so if the horse runs
second you win. For example all over
#1.
Box - Combining two or more horses in an exacta or trifecta
so that if any of them come in any order you are a winner.
Exotics -
usually any bets other than straight bets (win, place, and show). Exotics
include exactas, trifectas, pick 3's, 4's and 6's.
Consecutive race
bets - Bets that require you to pick winners in consecutive races, such as
Daily Doubles, Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 6
wagers.