The Turf Club Analysts - Arlington Park


Arlington Park - Sunday, July 4, 2010

We are going to help you make some money today. Winston, The Turf Man & the rest of our friends have worked their tails off to help us bring you a thorough analysis of today's card from Arlington Park.We provide you with expert commentary and wagering lessons. We'll all have a lot of fun.

	Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 5 - #4 MUSICSTREET MENACE (ML=7/2)
	Today's Live Longshot: Race 2 - #3 DOGWOODS LANCE (ML=10/1)

Arlington Park - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12500 Class Rating: 94

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#7 MARIKITTEN (ML=2/1)
#6 PURE POLISHED (ML=9/5)

MARIKITTEN - When Alvarado and Canani team up on horses the winning pct has been tremendous at 46. Based on works, I look for this mare to run a big race. This animal gets a barn change by way of a claim out of the last race. Trainer here is terrific off of the claim, so no reason why this thoroughbred won't have a chance at a big race. PP data show this thoroughbred with three improving speed ratings. Alvarado should be on a live one right here. PURE POLISHED - Shipped in on June 13th to take the money here. Take right back again. Hasn't run at today's trip recently but does have a speed rating earned last time she tried this distance good enough to win. Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a solid outing in the last race within the last 30 days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SUAVE DOTTIE M. (ML=9/2), #3 SKY N MIGHTY (ML=5/1),

SUAVE DOTTIE M. - Looked good on Jun 4th, finishing first, but no morning drills since is a bit troublesome. Don't feel this steed will make an impact in today's event. That last rating was mediocre when compared with today's Equibase class figure. SKY N MIGHTY - Couldn't make up ground whatsoever on May 29th. Hard to play in today's event at the expected odds. This mare registered a speed figure in her last event which likely isn't good enough today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	No reasonable straight wagers found for this race
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Arlington Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:29pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $23120 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#3 DOGWOODS LANCE (ML=10/1)
#1 APPLESOLUTELY WILD (ML=9/2)
#2 ZERO GRAVITY (ML=5/1)
#8 SON OF TIGER (ML=15/1)

DOGWOODS LANCE - I think the shorter distance will help this gelding stay the trip. APPLESOLUTELY WILD - Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a solid contest on June 12th. Gelding is a few starts into a return here. Should give a top effort today. ZERO GRAVITY - Based on works, I look for this colt to run a big race. Domenosky is trying blinks on today. Note that this animal worked from the gate in a morning prep, most likely in blinkers. I think the shorter trip will help this colt stay the distance. SON OF TIGER - I sense a pace scenario where the pace will fall back, setting up a perfect situation for his late kick. This horse could be tough in this race, especially since Meier rode in the last race and now should be acquainted with this one. Don't throw this one out due to his last race at Arlington Park where he ran fourth on the soft turf. Expect better today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 COMITATUS (ML=5/2), #5 BELAFONTE (ML=3/1), #4 YESNABAY (ML=8/1),

COMITATUS - Hasn't raced or had any workouts since Jun 11th. Not much value on this morning-line choice. BELAFONTE - You believe this animal is going to win today just because he's always close. Just doesn't get the job done frequently. Not likely that the speed rating he garnered on May 26th will be good enough in this event. YESNABAY - Hasn't been doing anything at all of late. Improbable that the rating he registered on Jun 17th will be enough in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 DOGWOODS LANCE to win at post-time odds of 5/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

Arlington Park - Race #3 - Post: 2:02pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#9 COOL LION (ML=2/1)
#1 CAMPO (ML=4/1)
#6 DOUGHNUT MAN (ML=5/1)

COOL LION - Using this jock/trainer combination is a good choice. CAMPO - Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone speed freak facing sluggish sorts today. This gelding is in good form, having run a good race on Jun 18th, finishing second. DOUGHNUT MAN - Looking like an overlay right here in this race at M/L odds of 5/1. Finished fifth in last race at Arlington Park but was close at the finish. This gelding should be at the fitness peak, this far into his form cycle. This gelding's last fig earned on June 18th is tops in last race speed ratings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 COUNTY CLERK (ML=9/2), #7 IRON ROGUE (ML=6/1), #8 JUST KICK 'EM (ML=8/1),

COUNTY CLERK - Hard to put your cash on the win end of any animal that finishes second and third as often as this entrant does. IRON ROGUE - Pace makes the race and an absence of pace means this rallier will have to rally without any help. JUST KICK 'EM - Any entrant coming out of a route clash should show some zip to clash with the sprinters. Showed very little in the last affair. Really can't expect improvement today.

Top Hat

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - DOUGHNUT MAN - Steady improvement in his speed ratings, 89 last race and 66 two races back. This racer is going to be tough against these ponies.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #1 CAMPO on top if we're getting at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

Arlington Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:33pm - Starter Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $24480 Class Rating: 99

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#2 TIDY UP (ML=6/1)
#3 TOM ARCHDEACON (ML=4/1)
#7 BELFAST (ML=5/1)

TIDY UP - The jock/handler duo of Baird and Faraci-Ransom has a strong return on investment together. I like when a race sets up this way. This gelding has the lone pace to bury this field. Have to give this race horse a good look. In recent races, has posted the best speed ratings on the turf at this distance. TOM ARCHDEACON - Jock hops back on board after getting to know the mount by riding last out. That's always a good tip. Notched a nice turf number on Jun 24th at Arlington Park. A repeat today, and this one has a great shot to win. This gelding is in fine physical condition, having run a nice race on June 24th, finishing second. This gelding ran a real solid event back on May 27th but bounced when coming back off that effort. Today should be different; I expect a return to form. I'm focusing on the class of this horse, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. BELFAST - This pony coming off a strong try in the last month is a serious competitor in my humble opinion. Felix comes to ride after getting to know the gelding in the last event. Finished out of the money last out at Arlington Park, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 5/1 makes me think he's got a chance. Last out, finished fourth on the soft turf at Arlington Park. Expect better in this field. The most recent rating of 100 is the best last race figure in the bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 CORREDOR DELA ISLA (ML=3/1), #1 ECONOMIC BAILOUT (ML=7/2), #5 STEPS SILVER HALO (ML=6/1),

CORREDOR DELA ISLA - Have to put a question mark next to the latest speed figure since it was garnered on the soft turf. ECONOMIC BAILOUT - The finish of third in the last race shows me that this horse may be losing physical conditioning. This gelding garnered a speed figure in his last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's race. STEPS SILVER HALO - This gelding showed little last time. Finished fifth in his most recent effort with a quite unimpressive speed figure. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #2 TIDY UP to win if you can get odds of 4/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,3,7] with [2,3,7] with [2,3,6,7,8] with [2,3,6,7,8] Total Cost: $36

Arlington Park - Race #5 - Post: 3:04pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $27200 Class Rating: 93

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#4 MUSICSTREET MENACE (ML=7/2)
#3 PARTY KING (ML=8/1)
#2 TUCKY (ML=6/1)

MUSICSTREET MENACE - Turning for home is when this one will make a big move. A fabulous chance to be victorious. PARTY KING - When Graham and Tomlinson team up on horses the ROI has been great at +230. Graham comes to ride after getting to know the gelding in the last event. This thoroughbred coming off a sharp effort in the last 30 days is a solid contender in my book. TUCKY - This gelding has a ton of ability on the turf. Could be long gone by the time they hit the top of the lane. If you review the PP's for this horse, you'll see he has recorded the top speed fig at the distance and surface. A repeat effort in this race and this horse has a superb chance to win. I believe the addition of blinkers today will help this gelding focus his attention on racing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ASTUTE (ML=2/1), #5 VERSAILLES ROAD (ML=3/1), #7 HATTAASH (ML=8/1),

ASTUTE - Pedestrian speed rating last time out at Arlington Park at 1 1/16 miles. Don't feel this questionable contender will improve too much in today's event. VERSAILLES ROAD - Tough to take this racer at the odds after the finish position (fourth) in the last race. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will make an impact today. That last speed rating was pedestrian when compared with today's class rating. HATTAASH - Finished second in his most recent race with a somewhat easily forgotten rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 MUSICSTREET MENACE is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,3,4] with [2,3,4] with [1,2,3,4,6] with [1,2,3,4,6] Total Cost: $36

Arlington Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:35pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#10 COUNT DE BARAN (ML=9/5)
#5 DINO DOMINIC (ML=6/1)
#9 GIFT COUPON (ML=3/1)

COUNT DE BARAN - Alvarado and Canani have had terrific success together over the last 12 months. On May 27th this gelding shipped in to take the top prize and looks good right back. DINO DOMINIC - Graham comes to ride after getting to know the gelding in the last contest. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. GIFT COUPON - Stretching a pony out to a route after two sprints is a classic training maneuver.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 COWBOY AT HEART (ML=8/1), #1 YONA TORY (ML=8/1),

COWBOY AT HEART - Tough to keep stabbing at this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. Don't feel this pony will do much running in today's race. That last speed figure was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's class figure. YONA TORY - No pace in this group to help set-up his closing rush. Most unsatisfactory speed fig last out at Arlington Park at 1 1/16 miles. Don't think this questionable contender will improve too much today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 DINO DOMINIC on the win end if we get at least 6/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [5,9,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[5,9,10] with [5,9,10] with [1,5,7,9,10] with [1,5,7,9,10] Total Cost: $36

Arlington Park - Race #7 - Post: 4:06pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $41480 Class Rating: 94

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#5 CRUISIN'NTHEBRIDLE (ML=3/1)
#2 FRIENDLY SELECTION (ML=4/1)
#9 MISS M V P (ML=9/2)

CRUISIN'NTHEBRIDLE - In this race here, this horse has clearly shown signs that she likes the grass. Her speed ratings are the highest in the field for this dist/surf. In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the turf. This one has the highest average Equibase class figure in the field. FRIENDLY SELECTION - Alvarado and Canani perform well when they join forces. Tough to beat a win percentage of 46. Canani has a very strong win pct in grass routes. This mare should be in great shape. The 94 last race rating looks strong in black and white. May be extremely hard to beat this thoroughbred on the grass today. Last time out scored a nice turf figure, the highest of any of these animals. MISS M V P - Filly won shipping here on June 11th and looks good right back. I like that recent race on June 11th at Arlington Park where she ended up first.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BILL'S PRESENCE (ML=5/1), #7 MOURETTE (ML=6/1), #4 ADMISSIBLE (ML=6/1),

BILL'S PRESENCE - I'd like to see more conducive recent efforts with morning line of 5/1. MOURETTE - Unlikely that this animal will finish better than she did last time out when finishing fourth. ADMISSIBLE - Long turnout, then came back and finished fourth. Hard to expect much better in today's event. Earned a somewhat easily forgotten speed fig last out in an Allowance race on June 13th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 CRUISIN'NTHEBRIDLE to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,5,9] with [2,5,9] with [1,2,5,7,9] with [1,2,5,7,9] Total Cost: $36

Arlington Park - Race #8 - Post: 4:37pm - Stakes - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 103 Chicago H. (Grade 3)

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#4 INFORMED DECISION (ML=4/5)
#1 DIAMOND SONG (ML=20/1)
#8 HOOH WHY (ML=9/2)

INFORMED DECISION - Great chance for this horse. Big late speed and should have good position. This mare has been working well, and the recent bullet work says she's primed for a top effort today. Looking at this mare's running lines, I see she's almost always in the money. This entrant has done very well at this distance. DIAMOND SONG - This pony coming off a nice try in the last month is a strong challenger in my book. Mare's finish positions keep getting better with each race. Maybe today's the day. 81-92-95 are last 3 Equibase speed figures. Improving each time out is something she should do again today. HOOH WHY - Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where she finished in her last race (sixth). Should improve in this field, with some pretty good odds.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 NEVER RETREAT (ML=4/1),

NEVER RETREAT - Not easy to wager on any steed in a sprint affair if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last sixty days. Any thoroughbred coming out of a route race should show some early speed to tangle with the sprinters.

Top Hat

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - INFORMED DECISION - I always check out the horse that is tops in earnings per start. If she meets my criteria I make a play.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 DIAMOND SONG on the nose if you can get odds of 9/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [1,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,4,8] with [1,4,8] with [1,2,3,4,8] with [1,2,3,4,8] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HIGH-5 WAGERS:	[1,4,8] with [1,4,8] with [1,2,4,8] with [1,2,3,4,5,8] with [1,2,3,4,5,8] Total Cost: $72

Arlington Park - Race #9 - Post: 5:08pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $33500 Class Rating: 96

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#5 TAZZ (ML=2/1)
#8 STRIKING HIGHT (ML=5/2)
#1 COLOR ME BLUE (ML=4/1)

TAZZ - Equibase speed figures on the turf point to this entrant as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance and surface. State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this gelding's move into the 'state bred' class today should make him tough in here. This gelding is in nice physical condition, having run a good race on June 20th, finishing third. You have to really like that most recent race speed rating, 97, which is the highest latest race speed figure of this bunch. STRIKING HIGHT - When this jockey and conditioner join forces you have to take a look. Graham and Block have been great together. This should be an easier task than what he was asked last time out against 'open' company. This gelding has lots of ability on the turf. Could be long gone by the time they hit the top of the lane. COLOR ME BLUE - Gelding shipped to this track and won; now goes for two in a row. Don't often see a lucrative return on investment like +230. This jock/handler duet has done well together over the last 12 months. Baze comes to ride after getting to know the gelding in the last race. This gelding is in fine condition, having run a nice race on June 19th, finishing first. Williamson is giving this one Lasix for the first time. You have to like that.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 RICH CITY DUDE (ML=8/1),

RICH CITY DUDE - The ninth place finish in the last event was not the best.

Top Hat

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - TAZZ - Watch out for this animal. My data would suggest that he will sit off the pace for most of the race, then with a slight urging from Emigh, will take the lead coming home.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Just say 'no' to the win bets this race
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,5,8] with [1,5,8] with [1,3,4,5,8] with [1,3,4,5,8] Total Cost: $36

Arlington Park - Race #10 - Post: 5:39pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14280 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#4 DAKOTA METT (ML=9/2)
#1 TROIS DESIR (ML=6/5)
#2 TO THE MOON (ML=12/1)

DAKOTA METT - The jockey and conditioner combination have a favorable return on investment when they combine forces. This gelding is in nice physical condition, having run a good race on June 20th, finishing second. A repeat of that latest race on Jun 20th where he recorded a speed figure of 75 looks high enough to prove victorious in this race. TROIS DESIR - Don't discount that last race. The horse fired out with good early speed, only to drop back and then hold ground to the finish. I usually like playing sprint horses who are 3-4 races into a come back. This horse is tops in (EPS) earnings per start. He looks nice in today's race. TO THE MOON - Look at this pattern of improvement. 38/62/65 are the last three speed ratings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 PLATINUM HUNTER (ML=6/1), #6 GROUND N' POUND (ML=8/1), #5 HEZA BOXER (ML=8/1),

PLATINUM HUNTER - Today's contest is 6 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance clash in the last two months. Not the best of omens. GROUND N' POUND - Trying to beat this participant this time out at the value of 8/1. HEZA BOXER - In any race of 6 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been looking good in short distance contests recently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #4 DAKOTA METT to win if you can get odds of 4/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.