The Turf Club Analysts


Aqueduct - Thursday, March 12, 2009

We burned the midnight oil to come up with some contenders for you today at Aqueduct. Our friends, Hal and The Brain and all the rest are going to help you make some money today. Grab a soda water or a nice, cold malt beverage, choose a lucky space, and buckle up for a fabulous day.

	Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 2 - #8 SARATOGIAN (ML=2/1)
	Today's Live Longshot: Race 4 - #7 JAIMIES GEM (ML=8/1)

Aqueduct - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#7 CAVALLO PAZZO (ML=1/1)

CAVALLO PAZZO - Sneaky speed on this one. He'll probably be stalking horses on the back side, then demolish them down the stretch. Russell rode this thoroughbred for the initial time last race out and comes right back this race. Last race Jan 30th was pretty strong for a $30,000 Claiming race so this gelding's race wasn't all that bad. I like the piece of information that this gelding's last fig, 105, is tops in this field. That recent bullet 46.8 work shows that this gelding is ready for a top performance today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 HALE AND HEARTY (ML=5/2), #6 INDIAN WAR DANCE (ML=5/1), #2 API MOHKAT (ML=6/1),

HALE AND HEARTY - Finished fifth last time. Would have to advance to land in the top three today. This vulnerable equine ran a quite unimpressive fig last time out. He shouldn't run better and will probably get beat in today's race running that rating. INDIAN WAR DANCE - Didn't come through as the favorite back to back. Probably won't gain a winning effort today either. API MOHKAT - 99/90/81, are the lessening Equibase speed figures for this questionable contender.

Top Hat

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CAVALLO PAZZO - Put a prime bet on this gelding. Uppermost in earnings per start and has a lot more to offer as well.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #7 CAVALLO PAZZO to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None

Aqueduct - Race #2 - Post: 1:29pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#8 SARATOGIAN (ML=2/1)

SARATOGIAN - This jockey and handler have a positive ROI when they work together. This colt is in exceptional physical condition right now. Ran third in the last race and comes back rapidly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SAY NEW YORK SANDY (ML=5/2), #1 BRITE GIN (ML=7/2), #2 TURBO TIM (ML=8/1),

SAY NEW YORK SANDY - Should be difficult for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the questionable challengers list. BRITE GIN - Looked like he was in good form on Feb 19th. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. This colt earned a speed fig in his last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's race. TURBO TIM - This colt hasn't been showing me anything in the last two efforts.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #8 SARATOGIAN on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	8 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None

Aqueduct - Race #3 - Post: 1:58pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#2 HIGH BLUES (ML=7/2)
#1A LORD KIPLING (ML=1/1)
#1 MALIBU MOONSHINE (ML=1/1)

HIGH BLUES - This horse should give a good account of himself in today's race. LORD KIPLING - This fine animal should be rumbling in the stretch. MALIBU MOONSHINE - This horse coming off a strong performance in the last 30 days is a contender in my humble opinion. This jockey and handler have a lucrative ROI when they team up. Ranked numero uno in earnings per start. Another indicator that this equine has the class to take this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SUCCESSFUL AFFAIR (ML=9/5),

SUCCESSFUL AFFAIR - Somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last time around the track at Aqueduct at 1 1/2 miles. Don't believe this runner will improve too much in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #2 HIGH BLUES to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

Aqueduct - Race #4 - Post: 2:27pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#7 JAIMIES GEM (ML=8/1)
#4X ISYOUIS (ML=2/1)
#4 EAGER FOR ACTION (ML=2/1)

JAIMIES GEM - This race horse should be thundering down the lane. ISYOUIS - Contessa drops her down to this class level. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to believe this horse has a good chance at this level. EAGER FOR ACTION - The jockey/handler tandem of Hill and Contessa has a strong ROI together. Sprinters that come back to the races quickly are generally good plays. Faced tougher last time around the track at Aqueduct. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker group, so I will put this animal on my list of contenders.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1A ANOTHER RINGER (ML=3/1), #1 GRIF'S CORNER (ML=3/1), #2 THEROMANCEISOVER (ML=7/2),

ANOTHER RINGER - This filly probably won't be close near the finish line. GRIF'S CORNER - Pedestrian speed figure last time around the track at Aqueduct at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this racer will improve too much in today's event. THEROMANCEISOVER - 7/2 is not enough of a price to take on this entrant.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 Entry to win if we can get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

Aqueduct - Race #5 - Post: 2:56pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#3 SEA OF TREES (ML=7/2)
#7 GALLANT AGAIN (ML=5/2)
#1 EL CHILE DOG (ML=2/1)
#1A COUTH (ML=2/1)

SEA OF TREES - This race horse is in great demand coming off two claims in his last two starts. Don't overlook this horse in your speculating today. Sanchez and Dutrow getting together are a punter's friend. This horse is at the top in EPS (earnings per start). He looks solid in today's event. The outside draw didn't help this horse's chances in the last race at Aqueduct. Today's inside draw should be just fine. GALLANT AGAIN - Jockey hops up atop after getting to know the race horse by riding last time around the track. That's always a green light. The recent speed fig of 92 is the best last race speed rating in the group. EL CHILE DOG - Rider jumped on this gelding's back for the initial time on March 1st. Should be in tune with the horse even better this time around. This horse coming off a sharp race in the last 30 days is a serious competitor in my humble opinion. COUTH - A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a sharp race is a good omen.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GIFT OF VALOR (ML=8/1),

GIFT OF VALOR - This gelding is always around, but just doesn't win. Tough to wager on him on the win end.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Save the win bets for another race
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,7] Total Cost: $6

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

Aqueduct - Race #6 - Post: 3:25pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#6 COUNTRY TRICK (ML=4/1)
#1A CANARDLY (ML=15/1)

COUNTRY TRICK - Zip is always important in horse racing, but the lone speed horse is always dangerous. Sanchez comes to race again after getting to know the gelding in the last event. Horses that finish in the place spot in Maiden races and finish well ahead of the third horse are generally good bets next time out. This horse is at the top in earnings per race. He looks strong in today's race. CANARDLY - This thoroughbred has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 59 to 66 to 73 in a row.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 VALID SUM (ML=9/5), #2 TWISTED DREAM (ML=3/1), #4 NAPKINS (ML=5/1),

VALID SUM - Should be difficult for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced equines list. TWISTED DREAM - Never really did much at all last race out on January 28th. Hard to bet on in today's race. This colt registered a speed figure in his last clash which probably isn't good enough in today's race. NAPKINS - This come from behinder looks to have little chance without a speed duel on the front end. The speed fig last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underlay.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #6 COUNTRY TRICK on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

Aqueduct - Race #7 - Post: 3:55pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#4 SHE'S MY FORTUNE (ML=2/1)
#1A A P GRACIE (ML=4/1)
#6 CARPATHIAN (ML=3/1)

SHE'S MY FORTUNE - I think Aqueduct players know a good thing when they see the jockey/trainer tandem of Dominguez and Dutrow. Their winning percentage together has been positive. The February 26th clash at Aqueduct was at a class level of (82). Dropping down the class ladder considerably, so she should be in a good spot to take this race. Just look at her most recent speed figure, 76. That one fits in this bunch. I like this filly. Has the top (EPS) earnings per start in here today. This horse has increased her speed figs in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking note of. A P GRACIE - I like to wager on this handicapping angle, a racer coming back off a sharp outing within the last month. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where she finished in her last race (fourth). Should rebound right here, with some decent odds. CARPATHIAN - Jacobson had been running this filly at higher levels recently. Did win a $25,000 Claiming race though, on November 9th. Could do it again here. I like to play this angle, a pony coming back off a strong race within the last thirty days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 THUNDER REIGNS (ML=4/1), #2 SAGE THE RAGE (ML=6/1), #5 RISKY GAMBLE (ML=8/1),

THUNDER REIGNS - Earned a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure in the last race in a $20,000 Claiming race on February 20th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig. SAGE THE RAGE - Looked good on February 20th, finishing first, but no morning drills since is a bit troublesome. RISKY GAMBLE - 8/1 is not enough of a reward to take on most any racer that has run poorly in back to back races. Run-of-the-mill speed figure in the last race at Aqueduct at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this mount will improve too much in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #4 SHE'S MY FORTUNE to win. Have to have odds of at least 2/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,6] Total Cost: $6

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

Aqueduct - Race #8 - Post: 4:25pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#1 INCALZANDO (ML=5/2)
#6 JOE CORRIGAN (ML=12/1)
#3 ALL IN NO OUTS (ML=3/1)
#4 MASALA T (ML=8/1)

INCALZANDO - Morales and Brown partnered together are a horse gambler's friend. Past performance lines show this horse with 3 improving speed ratings. Morales should be on a live one right here in this race. JOE CORRIGAN - Studart should be able to place this gelding right behind the pace. Ideally, Studart will rate behind the leaders, then make a move on the turn. Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a strong race last out within the last month. ALL IN NO OUTS - This gelding's last rating recorded on February 1st is tops in last race speed ratings. This horse has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 79 to 93 to 107 in succession. MASALA T - A horse coming back this promptly after a nice effort is a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 JUDGE WILLIAM (ML=7/2), #2 LIVING OUT A DREAM (ML=6/1), #5 NORTHERN BUSTER (ML=8/1),

JUDGE WILLIAM - Didn't land in the top three on January 29th at Aqueduct. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. LIVING OUT A DREAM - Not likely that this equine will finish better than he did last time out when ending up fourth. NORTHERN BUSTER - Mediocre speed fig in the last race at Aqueduct at 1 1/16 miles. Don't believe this entrant will improve too much in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 JOE CORRIGAN to win at post-time odds of 7/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

Aqueduct - Race #9 - Post: 4:55pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#7 BRAHMINICAL (ML=9/2)
#11 KAPTAIN (ML=3/1)

BRAHMINICAL - I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough efforts since the vacation and should be fit. This animal is number one in earnings per start. He looks strong in today's affair. Ribaudo is hoping to get a little more out of this gelding by adding blinkers today. KAPTAIN - Asmussen brings him back again. I advise you stick with this hot gelding. Using this jock/trainer combination is a smart move. Dominguez was aboard this gelding in the last race and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. This gelding's last rating registered on February 20th is tops in last race speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CHAYSEN' ALEX (ML=4/1), #5 SPECIAL TRIP (ML=6/1), #3 LOFTY BANNER (ML=8/1),

CHAYSEN' ALEX - Disappointing speed fig in the last race at Aqueduct at 6 furlongs. Don't think this mount will improve too much today. SPECIAL TRIP - Recorded a quite unimpressive speed fig last time out in a $12,500 Maiden Claiming race on February 14th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that rating. LOFTY BANNER - Will be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the vulnerable contenders list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #7 BRAHMINICAL to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.