The Turf Club Analysts - Hollywood Park


Hollywood Park - Sunday, December 16, 2007

Congratulations! You've got winners! The Turf Club Analysts will provide you with some sound wagering advisement. Follow our investing tips and you'll be well on your way to living the high life. Well, maybe not quite that big, but we can definitely promise you lot of fun. Hope you win all of your photo finishes! Good luck!

	Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 3 - #5 KINDACATCHY (ML=8/1)
	Today's Live Longshot: Race 5 - #3 WICKED DELIGHT (ML=10/1)

Hollywood Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:30pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#5 AUNT PINK (ML=2/1)
#3 BARTOK'S BLING (ML=6/5)
#2 ROCKET KITTY (ML=5/1)

AUNT PINK - Comes out of a last contest against 'open' company on December 2nd and faces what I believe are easier 'state breds' today. In this race here, this horse has notched the highest speed figure at the distance, so I have to give her the edge. This horse coming off a sharp race in the last month or so is a serious competitor in my book. BARTOK'S BLING - This mount may have too much power on the grass for the rest of the field. Moving down the stretch, she could put these away. Don't often see a lucrative ROI like +215. This rider/handler duo has done well together over the last year. ROCKET KITTY - This entrant could be tough today, especially since Delgadillo rode last time out and now should be plenty familiar with this one. Finished fourth at Fairplex last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 5/1 in this race, she looks like a possible contender. Running on the turf today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch. Mulhall will try adding the 'hood' today in hopes of an improved performance. Another way to determine class is EPS (earnings per start). This horse has the top in the field. I think she'll be close at the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BEYOND THE MARK (ML=8/1),

BEYOND THE MARK - Hard to put your money on this speedball. Too much early zip in the affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #2 ROCKET KITTY on the nose if you can get odds of 6/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,5] Total Cost: $6

Hollywood Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:00pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#6 LONELY HIGHWAY (ML=9/2)
#10 ROCK CREEK PASS (ML=6/1)
#7 HIGH INVESTMENT (ML=5/1)
#1 BROTHER PEGASUS (ML=8/1)

LONELY HIGHWAY - Just missed hitting the board on November 4th at Oaktree at Santa Anita. With decent morning line odds in this field, he has my interest. ROCK CREEK PASS - This colt has been trying different distances, but from the looks of things, he ran a nice rating last try at this distance. This horse ran well at Oaktree at Santa Anita on October 13th. Bounced in the last race, but should rebound today with a sharp effort. HIGH INVESTMENT - I am keen on that most recent effort on December 5th at Hollywood Park where he ended up second. This event sets up for this gelding. I call this the 'Lone Stalker' scenario. When the real running starts, he'll be in perfect position. A repeat of that last effort on Dec 5th where he registered a rating of 100 looks high enough to score in this race. BROTHER PEGASUS - Really have to believe this race horse is going to be very close at the finish line.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 TURKISH VICTORY (ML=7/2), #3 KICKIN CAPER (ML=5/1),

TURKISH VICTORY - Hard to take this vulnerable equine at these odds after the finish position (eighth) in the last race. KICKIN CAPER - You figure that this horse is going to finish first just because he's always close. Just doesn't win regularly.

Top Hat

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - HIGH INVESTMENT - Horse did finish 2nd last out at Hollywood Park, but was well ahead of the 3rd place finisher. A good sign he could improve today and find his way to the winner's circle for the 1st time.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 LONELY HIGHWAY is the play if we get odds of 9/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

Hollywood Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:30pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#5 KINDACATCHY (ML=8/1)

KINDACATCHY - This gelding should be in fine form, this far into his form cycle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 GOOD MAN DAN (ML=8/5), #7 TRANSVAAL SCOTTISH (ML=2/1), #1 TIDE WATER BOBBY (ML=6/1),

GOOD MAN DAN - That was simply not a very good exhibition in the last event. Finished seventh in his most recent effort with a run-of-the-mill speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this field. TRANSVAAL SCOTTISH - In any contest of 7 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been sharp in sprint affairs recently. Finished sixth in his most recent effort with a pedestrian speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this group. TIDE WATER BOBBY - Didn't end up on the board on Oct 26th at Oaktree at Santa Anita. Followed it up with another less than stellar try.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 KINDACATCHY on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Hollywood Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:01pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#4 SIZZLING SARAH (ML=10/1)
#1 O BEE NAKI (ML=5/2)
#2 HIGH SPEED GOLDIE (ML=4/1)
#6 IN MY LIFE (ML=6/1)

SIZZLING SARAH - This mare is at the top in earnings per race. Take a good look at this one in the saddling ring. O BEE NAKI - This filly is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprinters that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. I like to wager on this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid race within the last month. HIGH SPEED GOLDIE - Delgadillo is up for another race today after getting on board this equine for the 1st ride on Nov 18th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this horse is meeting an easier bunch than in the last race at Hollywood Park. I really like that latest outing on November 18th at Hollywood Park where she finished third. IN MY LIFE - This jockey and trainer are solid together. Win percentage when teamed up is hard to one up. This thoroughbred coming off a solid effort in the last 30 days is a serious competitor in my book.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BOLD CLEO (ML=2/1),

BOLD CLEO - Don't think this racer has what it takes to be the victor this time around.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #4 SIZZLING SARAH to win. Have to have odds of at least 6/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4] Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

Hollywood Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:32pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#3 WICKED DELIGHT (ML=10/1)
#9 TWELVE TWENTY TWO (ML=3/1)
#4 B R'S GIRL (ML=5/2)
#5 COUNTY STORM (ML=6/1)

WICKED DELIGHT - First-timer has been working over this very track. I think that's a big plus in her favor. Using this rider/trainer combination is a good move. Shirreffs adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for a pretty big improvement. TWELVE TWENTY TWO - A repeat of that latest performance on Nov 10th where she registered a rating of 95 looks lofty enough to triumph in this clash. Horse has improved at least two speed figure points in last two races. I look for that to continue to trend in a positive direction in this race. B R'S GIRL - This filly likes to be near the lead. Today's race is a shorter trip and should aid her chances to win. Earnings per start is something that I believe can be an extremely key factor. This horse is ranked number 1 in this field. Have to forget about that last race on the grass. This filly should do better hitting the main track right here in this race. COUNTY STORM - I like to play this angle, a pony coming back off a nice effort within the last month or so. Have to forget about that last race on the grass. This filly should do better hitting the main track in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LOVELY COOL (ML=8/1), #1 WICKEDNWACKYINGRID (ML=8/1),

LOVELY COOL - I prognosticate a letdown for this horse in this race. WICKEDNWACKYINGRID - No good results for this pony in a short distance event over the last couple months tells me that this filly is in a thorny situation

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 WICKED DELIGHT is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,9] Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,9] with [3,9] with [4,5] with [4,5] Total Cost: $4

Hollywood Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:04pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#8 ANGEL CRAFT (ML=2/1)
#5 SHE'S AN ELEVEN (ML=8/1)
#1 NOOTKA ISLAND (ML=5/1)

ANGEL CRAFT - In this race here, this horse has clearly shown signs that she likes the grass. Her Equibase speed figures are the highest in the field for this dist-surf. Didn't do well in the last race, but I do see two starts back when racing on the grass, a whole different equine. Speed rating of 109 should put this one in the money. SHE'S AN ELEVEN - Sadler has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to watch out for the longer priced half. Took a class drop last race out at Hollywood Park. Sadler keeps her at the same level in this event. I think that's a good move. Sadler brings her right back. I advocate you stay with this hot filly. In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the turf. This one has the highest average class figure in the group. This jock fits well with this equine. The filly and Gomez together win at a rate of 67 percent. NOOTKA ISLAND - This jock/trainer duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +21. Have to make this filly a serious competitor; she comes off a strong contest on Dec 2nd. This filly garnered a good speed fig of 99 in her last event. That rating should be strong enough to prove victorious today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 INDESCRIBABLE (ML=5/2), #2 PAT THE COOL CAT (ML=6/1), #3 HONNETE (ML=8/1),

INDESCRIBABLE - The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underlay. PAT THE COOL CAT - This filly notched a rating in her last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race. HONNETE - I'd like to see more preferred recent outings with morning line odds of 8/1.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 SHE'S AN ELEVEN to win if we can get at least 6/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,8] Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,5,8] with [1,5,8] with [1,2,3,5,8] with [1,2,3,5,8] Total Cost: $36

Hollywood Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:35pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#7 OCEANOGRAPHY (ML=5/2)
#4 BANNER LODGE (ML=7/2)
#5 SPANKEY COME HOME (ML=5/1)

OCEANOGRAPHY - This colt was overlooked in the betting when he made his debut October 27th. Look for another big effort today. Stalking speed. My partners and I like this horse. The last figure of 103 is the top last race speed fig in the bunch. BANNER LODGE - This colt is in fine physical condition. Finished third on November 23rd. Using this jock/handler combination is a smart choice. Came home fast last time around the track at Hollywood Park. That type of move bodes well for his chances in this race. SPANKEY COME HOME - This colt is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. Have to make this colt a win candidate; he comes off a sharp contest on Dec 6th. Have to forget about that last turf race. This colt should do better hitting the main track in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 RON BOB AND DAVE (ML=6/1), #11 INFINITE RESOURCE (ML=6/1), #3 JUST JULIAN (ML=8/1),

RON BOB AND DAVE - Don't think this entrant is worth 6/1 in this event. INFINITE RESOURCE - In any race of 6 1/2 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been on the board in sprint events recently. Not likely that this horse will finish better than he did last time when placing eighth. Will not be easy for this racer to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put him on the vulnerable contenders list. JUST JULIAN - Can't wager on this pony in today's sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance affair recently.

Top Hat

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SPANKEY COME HOME - Gonzalez must think this race horse is in good shape to bring him back so quickly.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 OCEANOGRAPHY is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[4,5,7] with [4,5,7] with [4,5,7,9,11] with [4,5,7,9,11] Total Cost: $36

Hollywood Park - Race #8 - Post: 4:05pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#12 CITRONNADE (ML=7/5)
#4 BLACK MAMBA (NZ) (ML=5/1)
#8 MEMORETTE (ML=15/1)
#11 LIVE LIFE (FR) (ML=20/1)

CITRONNADE - Last race Sep 29th was pretty strong for the Yellow Ribbon so this filly's performance wasn't all that bad. I like this filly a lot here. She shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. This filly's last speed fig notched on Sep 29th is utmost in last race speed figures. This horse picks up a lot of dough per start. I believe she can add to the lifetime bankroll right here in this race. BLACK MAMBA (NZ) - I can't ignore the fact that this filly is working extremely well. Came home in sizzling time last time out. A positive sign. MEMORETTE - If you review the PP's for this racer, you'll see she has recorded the top speed fig at the distance and surface. A repeat race in this event and this horse has a superb chance to win. Last raced at Oaktree at Santa Anita carrying 6 pounds more. The lower weight assigned in this field should serve her well. LIVE LIFE (FR) - The mount with the top average Equibase class figure in turf events is usually a solid play. This horse fits the bill. Last ran at Hollywood Park and finished fourth. Reviewing her past performance lines, I see she was close at the finish line, within five of the winner. This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Valdivia gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. Last time around the track, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. Pretty good indication she can close well, and should be right there at the end this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MERIBEL (ML=9/2), #3 HUCKING HOT (GB) (ML=8/1), #5 FOXYSOX (GB) (ML=8/1),

MERIBEL - Where is the speed? None to be found in here to set things up for this horse. HUCKING HOT (GB) - Will probably be educated to pay some respect to her elders today. Don't believe this mount will do much running in today's race. That last speed fig was quite unimpressive when compared with today's Equibase class figure. FOXYSOX (GB) - Will be hard for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the likely underlays list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #8 MEMORETTE on the win end if we get at least 9/1 odds and/or #11 LIVE LIFE (FR) to win at post-time odds of 10/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [8,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

Hollywood Park - Race #9 - Post: 4:35pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#7 PHOEBE'S SONG (ML=3/1)
#3 THEMIS VALENTINE (ML=4/1)
#2 SMOKEY ROUTE (ML=20/1)
#8 HEY BEAUTIFUL (ML=5/1)
#1 MA KA BET (ML=6/1)

PHOEBE'S SONG - A filly like this one, almost always in the top three, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a sharp effort is a good sign. Had a solid closing move last time out, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar effort today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. THEMIS VALENTINE - Filly has shown some pace. This shorter distance should be better for her. You always have to be on the patrol for profit making jock/conditioner tandems; we have it right here. A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a solid race is a good sign. SMOKEY ROUTE - Nice return on investment for this rider and conditioner tandem. HEY BEAUTIFUL - Baze rode this racer for the initial time last out and comes right back in today's contest. She must like the track here. Shipped in to finish first on Nov 21st and she looks tough once again. This filly is in nice form. Finished first on November 21st. Ranked number one in earnings per race. Another indication that this equine is classy. MA KA BET - Based on this filly's recent efforts, she should profit from this race's shorter trip. Filly shipped to this track and won; now goes for back-to-back wins. This filly is in fine condition, having run a strong race on December 1st, finishing first.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CAPTURE THE CAT (ML=7/2), #6 SEA DRIVER (ML=8/1),

CAPTURE THE CAT - Finished sixth last time out. Would have to advance to land in the top three today. Not easy to wager on any animal in a sprint event at 7/2 when she hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last couple of months. SEA DRIVER - If you keep choosing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disappointed most every time.

Top Hat

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - PHOEBE'S SONG - This filly has the top speed figure last race with a very good 95. She is the top gamble here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #2 SMOKEY ROUTE on the nose if you can get odds of 7/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7] Box [2,3] Box [2,8] Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,7] with [2,3,7] with [1,2,3,7,8] with [1,2,3,7,8] Total Cost: $24

Hollywood Park - Race #10 - Post: 5:05pm

Rating:

Choice Plays:

#3 ALL DONE UP (ML=3/1)

ALL DONE UP - This filly made her initial bow on November 22nd and ran well to finish third at big odds. I'm looking for another big effort from her today. Rider jumped on this filly's back for the 1st ride on November 22nd. Should be in touch with the horse even better today. Faces state bred foes today after finishing third versus 'open' company on November 22nd. In two-year-old races you have to check out the sire stats. This one here has one of the best with 2YO's.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 WARREN'S WHISPER (ML=5/2), #1A WARREN'S HONEY (ML=5/2), #5 SONG OF ILLINOIS (ML=5/1),

WARREN'S WHISPER - 5/2 is just too low of a price to take on this one. WARREN'S HONEY - Doesn't look to have enough positive angles to justify the value. SONG OF ILLINOIS - 5/1 is not worth the risk for any mount in a sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint affair lately. Unlikely that the speed figure she recorded on November 22nd will be good enough in this race.

Top Hat

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - ALL DONE UP - Some variables to consider. This filly is going on Lasix for the second time. My information shows that any time O'Neill does this, the animal is fit and ready to go.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 ALL DONE UP is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	3 with [6,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	3 with [6,12] with [5,6,7,12] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	3 with [5,6,12] with [5,6,7,10,12] with [5,6,7,10,12] Total Cost: $36

Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.