Golden Gate selections - Michael Nunamaker
Golden Gate Friday April 8, 2011
Race #1
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 FINAL JOURNEY 7-5 74 91 0.00
5 SKIPPY DUE 7-2 71 88 1.88
4 BRITE BOBBY 9-2 80 94 2.49
2 SHEEKEY (IRE) 10-1 70 83 4.13
1 ANDREW'S TURN 47-1 70 88 6.65
Commentary
FINAL JOURNEY Modest speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes.
SKIPPY DUE Speed improved in last outing.
BRITE BOBBY Huge pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
SHEEKEY (IRE) Three consecutive good finishes.
ANDREW'S TURN The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Was closer to the lead in last.
Race #2
Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 MALLINSON ROAD (NZ) 1-1 79 80 0.00
1 SHADAROCKEM 4-1 71 71 2.59
4 SILENT SALUTE 6-1 76 83 3.34
2 MADERIA 14-1 65 70 5.14
3 ROM BABA 24-1 72 72 6.11
Commentary
MALLINSON ROAD (NZ) Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
SHADAROCKEM Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
SILENT SALUTE Highest average purse value.
MADERIA Showed surprise early speed in last. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
Race #3
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 CAPALATTE 4-1 68 74 0.00
5 FOURTEENKARATRITA 9-2 70 88 0.22
3 DANCING KITTY 9-2 79 92 0.35
4 SIZZLING GOLD 9-2 64 81 0.41
2 SECRET SHADOW 6-1 70 85 0.77
Commentary
CAPALATTE Modest back speed advantage.
FOURTEENKARATRITA Highest earnings per start.
DANCING KITTY Massive pace advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
SECRET SHADOW Slight speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #4
Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 FU PEG HE RAT 5-2 77 77 0.00
1 FIRE BREAK 5-2 77 78 0.06
4 MOUDEZ (IRE) 5-2 75 81 0.15
6 FLASHMANS PAPERS (GB) 12-1 77 94 3.20
5 QUOTATION 31-1 66 68 4.59
Commentary
FU PEG HE RAT Slight pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Slight back speed advantage.
FIRE BREAK Three consecutive good finishes.
MOUDEZ (IRE) The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Three consecutive decreases in speed rating!
FLASHMANS PAPERS (GB) The recent 5F workout looks great.
QUOTATION Very impressive workouts.
Race #5
Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 SUMMER ARROW 9-5 71 87 0.00
8 STATELY TOM 3-1 68 88 1.22
5 TWILIGHT ENERGY 9-1 68 83 3.60
4 PELICAN HILL 10-1 64 78 3.83
1 ZOE'S CAJUN 10-1 no starts 4.05
Commentary
SUMMER ARROW Pace advantage. Speed advantage. I like the workouts. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
STATELY TOM Back speed advantage. A well worked out horse. Showed surprise early speed in last.
TWILIGHT ENERGY Highest earnings per start at today's distance.
PELICAN HILL Long recent workout is a good sign.
ZOE'S CAJUN The long workout makes me feel good about this one.
Race #6
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 URBAN HUNTER 9-5 78 94 0.00
6 EXCESSIVE WAGER 5-2 78 90 0.37
4 MORELAND 4-1 73 89 1.51
3 SUPERCABRAS 17-1 76 91 4.57
2 BLENDED ROCKS 28-1 71 71 5.40
Commentary
URBAN HUNTER Highest average purse value.
EXCESSIVE WAGER Three consecutive good finishes.
MORELAND Modest speed advantage.
SUPERCABRAS Class raise presents a challange.
BLENDED ROCKS Very impressive workouts.
Race #7
Proficiency: Samples=1142 W%=31.8 Net=2.01 Net4+=2.70
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 FLIGHT OF A DREAM 9-5 69 68 0.00
3 GRASP 7-2 78 86 1.46
7 GHOST SHADOW 9-1 71 78 3.25
2 DUBAI PERFECTO 9-1 64 66 3.29
5 RUBY SLIPPERS 10-1 65 68 3.63
Commentary
FLIGHT OF A DREAM Modest speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
GRASP Big pace advantage. Bid but hung in last.
GHOST SHADOW Slight back speed advantage.
DUBAI PERFECTO Class drop should help.
RUBY SLIPPERS Highest earnings per start at today's distance.
Race #8
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 UNBRIDLED JOULE 9-5 67 88 0.00
3 STYLIN JULIE 7-2 67 86 1.06
5 ICEDMOCHANOWHIP 5-1 71 87 1.97
6 CHELSEA'S FLAME 7-1 75 90 2.52
4 TOP OF THE RAINBOW 15-1 64 81 4.07
Commentary
UNBRIDLED JOULE Modest speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Two moves in last race. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
STYLIN JULIE Best speed at this distance and surface.
ICEDMOCHANOWHIP Highest earnings per start.
CHELSEA'S FLAME Big pace advantage.
TOP OF THE RAINBOW Long workout is almost as good as an extra race.
Best Bet of the day
Race 2 MALLINSON ROAD (NZ)
Proficiency
This is a short report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace Figure
The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® speed ratings.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today.
However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating,
this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example
a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished
better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.