Santa Anita Park selections - Michael Nunamaker

Santa Anita Park      Thursday April 2, 2015


Race #1


Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 PRETTYPRECIOUSHEIR           5-2       76      96      0.00
 1 MIZ PENELOPE                 7-2       63      84      1.02
 6 QUALITY CHIMES               9-2       72      89      1.47
 3 MISS MIDNIGHT BREW           5-1       no starts       1.75
 2 STUNNING TASTE               21-1      70      91      4.59
Commentary

PRETTYPRECIOUSHEIR Pace advantage. Back speed advantage. A well worked out horse. Looks to have an early speed advantage. MIZ PENELOPE Speed advantage. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! QUALITY CHIMES Class drop should help. MISS MIDNIGHT BREW The long workout makes me feel good about this one. STUNNING TASTE Class drop should help.
Race #2


Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 SENOR PEGASUS                5-2       67      89      0.00
 2 SPIRITED JACOB               9-2       no starts       0.97
 5 WARREN'S SALLYIZED           9-2       68      89      1.04
 7 DOMINO JOHNSON               8-1       79      96      2.15
 4 OUR TROOPER                  8-1       66      90      2.18
Commentary

SENOR PEGASUS Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! WARREN'S SALLYIZED Very impressive workouts. DOMINO JOHNSON Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 SHEER TALENT                 2-1       75      95      0.00
 5 ENDLESS CRUISE               7-2       74      93      1.02
 3 PRESIDING JUSTICE            9-2       71      90      1.59
 1 ALPINE LUCK                  7-1       75      91      2.30
 4 DESTINO                      27-1      64      84      4.81
Commentary

SHEER TALENT Slight pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Slight back speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. ENDLESS CRUISE Speed improved in last outing. PRESIDING JUSTICE No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. ALPINE LUCK Huge class drop should help.
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 MISDEED                      9-2       72      83      0.00
 2 BADASMYWIFELETSMEB           9-2       82      92      0.08
 8 GANGNAM GUY                  9-2       84      103     0.11
 6 RANSOM CANYON                7-1       75      78      0.83
 7 SMART JOURNEY                8-1       79      98      1.24
Commentary

MISDEED Speed improved in last outing. BADASMYWIFELETSMEB Big speed advantage. Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!! GANGNAM GUY Modest pace advantage. Huge class drop should help. RANSOM CANYON Very impressive workouts. Huge class raise will be hard. SMART JOURNEY Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 8 VALLEY CAT                   9-5       72      85      0.00
 1 ACCELERANT                   6-1       72      84      2.38
 4 OLD MAN LAKE                 7-1       78      94      2.54
 5 TWO IS TO MANY               9-1       79      89      3.06
 7 LIMITED RESPONSE             9-1       76      93      3.17
Commentary

VALLEY CAT Slight speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class drop should help. ACCELERANT Speed improved in last outing. OLD MAN LAKE The recent 5F workout looks great. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. TWO IS TO MANY Slight pace advantage. Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Looks to have an early speed advantage. LIMITED RESPONSE Highest earnings per start at today's track.
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 WANSTEAD GARDENS             5-2       77      87      0.00
 2 LITTLE CURLIN                4-1       77      91      0.91
 1 STREET MAVEN                 6-1       81      92      1.75
 8 UNUSUAL FLEET                10-1      77      94      2.53
 7 WHICH MARKET                 10-1      75      83      2.67
Commentary

WANSTEAD GARDENS Slight speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. LITTLE CURLIN I like the workouts. Looks to have an early speed advantage. STREET MAVEN Modest pace advantage. The recent 5F workout looks great. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. UNUSUAL FLEET Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! WHICH MARKET Long recent workout is a good sign. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 CHESTER B                    3-1       65      77      0.00
 5 PAPA KADE                    7-1       71      78      1.70
 3 VISITATION                   7-1       71      83      1.90
 7 TIZ JOLIE                    9-1       71      84      2.28
 8 AFLEET IN TIME               10-1      67      78      2.42
Commentary

CHESTER B Modest back speed advantage. PAPA KADE Showed surprise early speed in last. Huge class drop should help. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!! VISITATION Long recent workout is a good sign. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. TIZ JOLIE A well worked out horse. AFLEET IN TIME Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!!
Race #8


Proficiency: Samples=1969 W%=27.8 Net=1.74 Net4+=2.14

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 BELLAMY CONCERTO             5-2       74      96      0.00
 3 WAR DESTINY                  3-1       76      93      0.59
 7 RELATIVE TIME                9-1       70      93      2.89
 4 HAULER                       11-1      73      97      3.38
 9 MIRAGLO                      13-1      66      86      3.65
Commentary

BELLAMY CONCERTO Back speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! WAR DESTINY Pace advantage. Speed advantage. The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good finishes. RELATIVE TIME Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. HAULER Was closer to the lead in last. MIRAGLO Speed improved in last outing.

Best Bet of the day


Race 5 VALLEY CAT

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.