Selections
by Ellis Starr for Keeneland – Friday 04/08/11
Mission Statement:
To help you be a better
handicapper and bettor while keeping you in the game with uncommon selections
and analysis.
Motto:
"Friends don't let friends bet chalk."
Guide to using these selections and analysis: The names listed in BOLD are the horses I think have the highest probability to win.
Next to each name are my minimum ‘fair odds’, a guide for making
win bets. You can consider win bets at ‘fair odds’ or higher,
starting with the top choice. If a horse is listed as a contender but below the
minimum fair odds it can still be used in the exacta and other wagers. The
second best contender to win isn't necessarily the best horse to run second so
even though horses are ranked in order that doesn't mean they will (or won't)
finish in that order. When I feel an exacta is warranted I specifically say so.
Guide
to Ratings:
- Predictable race that may not offer opportunity
for profit, or unpredictable race with profit opportunity if the odds are
high.
- Average race in terms of profit opportunity
depending on the potential returns and odds on ‘win
contenders’.
- Exceptional race in terms of profit opportunity.
Whether any horse in the race present exceptional profit opportunity depends
on the odds and potential payoffs. These races usually have vulnerable
favorites, high odds ‘win contenders’, or both.
You can get my
detailed selections & analysis at trackmaster.com and equibase.com
Always Check Program Numbers
Race #1 - Rating = 1
#2 Soul Vacation - Fair odds 7/2
#6 Gimmeawish - Fair odds 7/2
#5 Hachi - Fair odds 7/2
#1 Gentlemans Code / 1a Everydave - Fair odds 7/2
Soul Vacation comes from the barn of veteran
trainer James K. Chapman, son of veteran trainer James R. Chapman and trainer
of champion sprinter Caller One. Although pretty inactive as a trainer in the
past year, Chapman knows his stuff and with this colt showing just three
workouts in the past 20 days you can be assured he has been in solid training
and is ready to make a fine impression in his debut, just as his only sibling
on the dam’s side did when missing by a neck in his career debut in 2008.
Gimmeawish is a half brother to multiple
winner Pete’s Wonder, who won his debut then was a stakes winner. With a
very strong workout over the track on April 26 in preparation for the race this
is another colt that could come out running at first asking.
Hachi comes from the barn of a low
profile, high percentage conditioner in Jim Corrigan, 8 for 24 for the year and
4 for 16 this year and last with his first time starters, so could him in as
potentially “Live” in his debut.
Gentlemans Code and Everyday Dave come
from the barn of Wesley Ward, notorious for winning with a high percentage of his
first time starters and two year olds. With Jeffrey Sanchez named to ride both
it is likely only one will run, but whichever one does run must be respected
when considering our wagers involving this race.
Race #2 - Rating = 2
#4 True Jean - Fair odds 7/2
#7 Scratch Turns - Fair odds 4/1
(consider for a win, place and show bet at very high odds)
#1 Sing Sing Cindrela - Fair odds 4/1
Exactas: 4 over 1,3,5,7,9 then
(reverse) 1,3,5,7,9 over 4 ($10 cost at the $1 level)
True Jean came back from 5 months off last
month to win as he pleased after leading from the start over the Polytrack at
Turfway Park and as he put “A” efforts back-to-back last fall he
appears capable of doing so again and running well enough to win his 2nd
race in a row, particularly as he should be stronger in his 2nd start
back from a layoff.
Scratch Turns is on a slowly improving
pattern, 10th 3 races back, 8th 2 races back and 4th
last time out. He led late and finished 2nd here at Keeneland under
similar conditions earlier in his career and he won 2 in a row on Polytrack at
Turfway in December and January so he has potential to take a little step
forward and outrun potentially very high odds.
Sing Sing Cindrela drops to this 10K level
for the 1st time and considering she finished 3rd following
9 months off last month to tougher she could improve on the drop and 2nd
off the layoff so I will overlook the fact that her owner is trying to get
someone to claim her and take her off his hands and give her a look at the
outcome as well.
Race #3 - Rating = 1
#8 Dr. Hudson - Fair odds 5/2
#4 Annawon - Fair odds 3/1
#2 Shotgun Shine - Fair odds 3/1
Exactas: 8 over 2,4,6 then
(reverse) 2,4,6 over 8 (#6 is Blowback) ($6 cost at $1 level)
Dr. Hudson went long off two sprints last
out following an extensive layoff and the result was his best effort in over 18
months when 3rd and beaten just one length at the end. Likely to
improve again running long for the 2nd time in a row and finding a
weak field for the level he could be the one to beat.
Annawon led from the half mile mark into
the stretch last out then settled for 2nd, beaten just a half
length, in his best effort yet, and he too might be able to run even better
today now that he’s discovered competitive form.
Shotgun Shine finished 2nd in
mid-January off a layoff and in the 2nd start of his career then regressed
to finish 4th last out without much of an excuse. Blinkers are tried
today and he does get a positive jockey change to Leparoux so if able to return
to the form shown on 1/21 in this situation he certainly could run well enough
to win.
Race #4 - Rating = 2
#1 Grey Mist - Fair odds 7/2
#7 Quite Explosive - Fair odds 7/2
#9 Belle Muse - Fair odds 5/1
#12 Basilio's Thunder - Fair odds 5/1
Exacta: $1 box 1,7,9,12 ($12 cost
at $1 level)
Grey Mist gets preference in a wide open
non-winners of 2 lifetime affair as it is an extremely positive sign to see a
top jockey such as Garrett Gomez choose to ride for a virtually unheard of
trainer (Dyer), suggesting that Garrett or his agent knows the horse has a
decent shot at success. As far as the horse goes, her most recent workout
coming into the race, here at Keeneland on 3/29, as above average, and considering
that the only other time the horse raced here at Keeneland, she won, I suspect
this filly may have a fondness for her surroundings and is ready to repeat her
winning effort today.
Quite Explosive was coming back from 4 months
off on 3/17 when she rallied from 5th after breaking slowly to lead
in the stretch before being beaten ¾ of a length, so likely to be
physically stronger 2nd off the layoff and with a better start she
can run that same race and perhaps win today.
Belle Muse ships in from New
York where she’s finished 2nd twice in a row,
prior to that earning her one win on the Polytrack at Turfway Park,
so she’s another with an affinity for this surface, as well as a sharp
recent local workout that suggests she could continue in competitive form.
Basilio’s Thunder has been
in steady training since mid-February here at Keeneland since two poor efforts
last October and November at Hawthorne.
She’s done her best running on Polytrack, winning by 3 over the surface
last June, and as such she rounds out a quartet of horses that might be
expected to help make us a profit in this race.
Race #5 - Rating = 3
#11 Breaking Promises - Fair odds 4/1 (win
and place bet possible at high odds)
#4 Dixie Stamp - Fair odds 4/1 (win
and place bet possible at high odds)
#9 Oregon Lady - Fair odds 4/1
#3 Lady Jadana - Fair odds 4/1
In this wide open race, also
worthy of consideration as contenders, particularly for pick 3 and 4 tickets,
are #6 Media Madness, #8 Senada and #10 Miss Laa di Da.
Breaking Promises won her one-and-only race
to date, last month at Turfway
Park in a sprint,
rallying from 7th of 8 early and surging to win. Not only was she
flattered when the runner-up came out of the race to win her next start, this
gal is bred to take to the turf she’s trying today like a duck to water. Her
half sister (same dam) is named Arch Support, and last year as a 2 year old she
won in her 2nd career start, in a turf route, before placing in a
stakes and competing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies turf. This gal
could turn out the same way, running even better in her 2nd career
start than her first, and as such she could be a KEY LONGSHOT bet on the day as
she opens at 15 to 1.
Dixie Stamp is a 2nd horse that
opens at 15 to 1 that can be played, as there is profit in playing both because
if even one of them comes in first or second we make money. Dixie Stamp came
back from 3 months off in February and ran a then career best race to finish 2nd
in a race scheduled for turf but run on the main track, then when finally
trying turf for the first time last out she won easily by 4 ½ lengths in
a field of 10 after being more than 10 lengths out of it in the early stages. With
more improving to do and getting a top jockey in Kent Desormeaux, Dixie Stamp
has every right to run well as a perfect fit (as is Breaking Promises) at this
first allowance level after a maiden win last time out.
Oregon Lady also won her last race, but it
was last August. Still, it was on the turf and she did run 2nd a
year ago going long on grass in her career debut so does have a chance to pick
up where she left off last summer, with a winning effort.
Lady Jadana broke her maiden one before last
on the grass in January then at this level on 2/23 she rallied from last of 12
and far back to end up 4th, just a head from 3rd and 2
lengths from the winner. With blinkers on to help her focus and be a bit closer
in the early stages today and with the same rally put forth last out she could
pass the field late and win today.
Race #6 - Rating = 2
#3 Crested - Fair odds 4/1 (win
and place possibility at high odds)
#7 Jimanator - Fair odds 4/1 (win and place possibility at high odds)
#8 Kingofthebluegrass - Fair odds 4/1
#12 Strikewhileitshot - Fair odds 4/1
Exacta: $1 box 3,7,8,12 ($12 cost
at $1 level)
Crested likes this Keeneland racing
surface as he’s been no worse than third over it in three tries. Most importantly,
Crested ran here at Keeneland last April 10, nearly a year ago to the day, and
posted the upset at 31 to 1, with jockey James Graham aboard. At the fall
meeting he missed by a neck at this 25K claiming level, also with Graham in the
saddle, so rested since February for this meeting and having shown an ability to
fire his best shot over this track and with today’s jockey in the saddle,
he deserves more respect than his high odds would like to suggest he does.
Jimanator is another longshot to take a
look at, as he won by 5 lengths one before last on 1/30 right off the McKeever
claim at the 17,500 level, then he rallied to 2nd before settling
for 3rd last out at the 40K level. Dropped to the 25K level, still
above the level of the win, Jimanator also won by 5 in December and has won 3
of his last 6 races, suggesting that with his best effort he could get the job
done today.
Strikewhileitshot drops to the 25K level
for the first time after making the lead early last out and setting for 4th
at the 50K level. One before that last race at the 30K level he won so he could
be back at his competitive level today and therefore rebound to top form, something
also suggested by his best of 20 five furlong workout over the track as his
most recent coming into the race.
Race #7 - Rating = 2
#1 Rockin' Rockstar - Fair odds 3/1
#2 China - Fair odds 3/1
#7 A Diehl - Fair odds 3/1
Exacta: Box 1,2,7 ($6 cost at $1 level)
Rockin’ Rockstar gets the
perfect jockey in Julien “Hands of Stone” Leparoux, as the gelding’s
closing style will benefit greatly from the fact that Homerun Berti and Canon
Man (at the least) will want the lead from the start and at any cost. Rockin’
Rockstar rallied to win from last in July over the similar Tapeta synthetic surface
at Presque Isle Downs, at this non-winners of 3 allowance level, so today he’s
in for the optional 80K claiming price in order to try to duplicate his winning
effort from last summer.
China failed
at a mile on turf last out on 2/27 in a graded stakes, a COMPLETELY irrelevant
effort. Back around one turn where he had done all his running prior to that,
winning 3 and finishing 2nd in two of 7 races, he has a big shot to
be there at the wire with the top pick as he fits on all counts and gets the
services of top jockey Robby Albarado to boot, as well as won by nearly 7
lengths here at Keeneland in his career debut then finished 2nd last
October in his only other start over the track.
A Diehl drops out of listed (non-graded)
stakes back to this NW3X allowance level where 3 races back he rallied strongly
to miss by a head on the wire. He too has won at Keeneland, twice in 4 races,
and so he rounds out our trio of contenders for win and exacta profit in this
event.
Race #8 - Rating = 2
#10 Elusive Action - Fair odds 2/1
#5 Humble and Hungry - Fair odds 3/1
#7 Unsaddled Glory - Fair odds 4/1
(possible win, place and show bet at high odds)
#6 Matthewsburg - Fair odds 4/1
Exactas: 10 over 5,6,7 then
(reverse) 5,6,7 over 10 ($6 cost at $1 level)
Elusive Action put it all together and
destroyed a 123 horse field by 10 lengths last out on 1/29 in his 4th
career start. Flattered when the third horse came back to win his next race,
Elusive Action has been rested since then and is showing all signs of being
able to pick up where he left off, as his most recent workout on 4/1 here at
Keeneland was labeled exceptional by the clockers, the best of 20 at the
distance on the day and with the colt galloping out another furlong in race
quality time. As such, and as a perfect fit at this NW1X allowance level after
a maiden allowance victory last time out, Elusive Action is the one to beat in
this race.
Humble and Hungry ran well in the first
three races of his career then went from maiden winner to try some of the best
two year olds in North America last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Turf, running well to be close up in 2nd early but then tiring to 8th.
Rested since then and having shown the ability to fire fresh when 2nd
and beaten less than a length in his career debut, Humble and Hungry could give
a good account of himself in this situation.
Unsaddled Glory is the one that the rest have to
catch to win in this race, as he likes to lead early and has done just that in
his last six races. He won three back on 2/13 and held on for 3rd nicely
in his most recent race, so if he gets an easy lead today he could get brave
and be tough to run down.
Matthewsburg won as he pleased by 6 lengths
last time out on 3/26 in his 4th career try, most importantly on the
switch from turf to Polytrack, and as another that fits fine at this level
following a maiden special weight win he too has a shot to continue his pattern
of improvement so must be respected as a contender as well.
Race
#9 - Rating = 2
#4 Ronin Dax - Fair odds 4/1
#3 Powhatan County - Fair odds 4/1
#6 Adirondack Summer - Fair odds 4/1
#7 Great Mills - Fair odds 4/1
#10 Pluck - Fair odds 4/1
This year’s edition of the
Transylvania Stakes is wide open, as I give each of the five listed contenders
above about a 20% chance to win the race. As such, we must watch the tote board
and then we can wager on the one, two or even three that go to post at the highest
odds in order to take advantage of any mistakes made by the public at large.
Ronin Dax could easily be one of those we
wager on as he opens at high odds, in spite of having just run big when wining
at a mile on turf in California,
earning his 2nd career win in his 3rd career turf start. Earning a
field high TrackMaster turf figure (a measure of speed weighted on the last
fraction of a turf race, the most important one), Ronin Dax may need only
repeat that last effort in order to earn his first graded stakes win.
Powhatan County is also
a two time winner on turf in his career, most recently on 3/3 at Gulfstream Park. Flattered considerably when the
horse he beat by a head for the win, Animal Kingdom, came back to win the
Spiral Stakes two weeks ago, Powhatan County has a lot of room for improvement
as he is making his 2nd start after returning from 6 months on the
bench, and so he deserves a lot of respect when considering our wagers
involving this race.
Adirondack Summer won his debut last October,
on the turf, easily by five lengths, then finished 2nd before
winning the Dania Beach Stakes in January on the grass at Gulfstream Park.
As such, he fits perfectly at this level and is another with every right to run
well enough to win.
Great Mills has won 3 race in a row, all on
turf, including the non-graded Grindstone Stakes last month at the Fair
Grounds. He gets the services of top jockey Leparoux and as he’s won on
the lead and from off the pace he too has a shot to win this race today with
his best effort.
Pluck will likely go to post as the
favorite although he finished 4th as the prohibitive favorite in his
most recent race, on 3/12, not even a stakes race. However, he had been away
from the races for 4 months since winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Turf, defeating a solid field of 12, and with Gomez up for that win and
returning to the saddle after a one race absence and considering that the last
race may have just been a way for his trainer to get him back into top form,
Pluck rounds out our quintet of contenders in this event, noting however that
we make a lot more profit if any of the other four contenders wins the race and
so it may be best just to use Pluck on pick 3, pick 4 and daily double tickets we
play but otherwise take a stand against him.
Race
#10 - Rating = 2
#5 Champagne Run - Fair odds 5/2
#8 Royal Start - Fair odds 5/2
#10 Giant Rockstar - Fair odds 9/2
#12 Sirocco - Fair odds 9/2
In this deep maiden field, I
wouldn’t argue with anyone wishing to consider as contenders #3 Wild
Tizzy, #4 Miss Reve, #6 Shatoosh or #9 All Mettle.
Champagne Run debuts for the strong Asmussen
barn, known for training its first timers for success. This filly happens also
to be only the 2nd foal of the mare Bollinger, making her a half
sister to Friesan Fire, who not only was favored in the 2009 Kentucky Derby
after winning the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star Stakes, but who won in his
debut. As such, I believe this filly can follow in her brother’s
footsteps and win at first asking today.
Royal Start rallied from 4th to 2nd
in the stretch in her debut then tired a bit to 4th, still only
beaten 1 ½ lengths at the end. Considering that the horse that finished
2nd was the highly regarded Might, who came back to win his next
start, and considering that Royal Start should also be a lot stronger
physically and mentally for the experience of a race, she has every right to
improve and win today.
Giant Rockstar has been working consistently
here at Keeneland for 2 months leading to her debut and capped her series of morning
drills with a sharp best of 22 five furlong workout from the gate on 3/29 which
suggests she can give a strong account of herself at first asking today.
Sirocco ran big in her career debut when
2nd of 10 on March 4 on the Polytrack at Turfway Park and with
physical and mental improvement off the experience of a race and with the winner
coming right back to win again she could take the necessary step forward and
earn her maiden graduation papers today.