Santa Anita - Saturday, March 28, 2015
We burned the midnight oil to come up with some selections for you today at Santa Anita. Our friends, Hal and The Brain and all the rest are going to help you make some money today. Grab a pop or a nice, cold brewski, choose a lucky seat, and buckle up for a fantastic day.
Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 1 - #7 KRISTINITE (ML=5/2)
Today's Live Longshot: Race 8 - #1 HELM (ML=8/1)
Santa Anita - Race #1 - Post: 12:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,000 Class Rating: 82
#7 KRISTINITE (ML=5/2)
KRISTINITE - Trainer Spawr moves this thoroughbred down in the class scale to face a lower class field. Look for a sharp race with this class drop. I know she'll be way back, but she's got a wonderful move turning for home. Spawr moves this filly to the main track today. Look for a solid chance of improvement from the most recent turf race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SEE THROUGH (ML=2/1),
#5 TWINKLE TOES (ML=3/1),
#1 ATOMICSEVENTYNINE (ML=4/1),
SEE THROUGH - Doesn't look to be worth 2/1 today. Pass on her this time.
TWINKLE TOES - The third place finish position in the last event was not that great. Common speed figure in the last race at Santa Anita at 6 furlongs. Don't think this runner will improve too much in today's event.
#7 KRISTINITE to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
Santa Anita - Race #2 - Post: 12:57pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 74
#2 TAKE BACK SPRING (ML=5/2)
#6 RACING FOR CHASEN (ML=9/5)
#3 ABETS ABET (ML=5/2)
TAKE BACK SPRING - She got a decent speed figure the last time she tried this distance.
RACING FOR CHASEN - This jockey and trainer have a beneficial return on investment when they partner up. This filly likes to sit just off the pace and the way things shape up here, she should get an ideal trip. This filly's last speed figure is strong enough to score here, I'll wager on her back again this time out. Horse has improved at least two speed rating points in last two races. I look for that positive trend to continue right here in this race. This horse wins a lot of money per start. At the top in this race.
ABETS ABET - Harrington has this filly spotted in the ideal race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CRUISINGTHEHARBOR (ML=5/1),
#4 WON'T BE SHAKEN (ML=6/1),
#5 AGUACITA (ML=6/1),
CRUISINGTHEHARBOR - Difficult to invest in any entrant to turn things around if there is no large gain to taking the chance.
WON'T BE SHAKEN - The speed ratings are going downward. I'm not investing on this steed off of that trend.
AGUACITA - I'd like to see more hospitable recent efforts with M/L odds of 6/1. Not probable that the fig she garnered on February 14th will hold up in this affair.
We're advising skipping the win bets this time
Box [2,3,6] Total Cost: $6
Santa Anita - Race #3 - Post: 1:26pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 77
#7 STERLING WAGER (ML=7/2)
#8 COACH JOHN (ML=7/2)
#6 GRANDSON AT LAST (ML=8/1)
STERLING WAGER - I have to figure Kitchingman is making a good move here. This gelding can only benefit from the shorter distance. Hasn't run at today's distance recently but does have a speed rating recorded last time he tried this trip good enough to win. Looking at today's class figure, this pony is encountering an easier bunch than in the last race at Santa Anita.
COACH JOHN - I like that last outing on Feb 26th at Santa Anita where he ended up second. Steiner was aboard this gelding last time around the track and was impressed enough to take the equine right back. That 71 fig this gelding notched in his last race tells me he's a chief player this time out.
GRANDSON AT LAST - The fact that this colt is entered right back into a race so quickly means he's fit and ready. I think the shorter trip will help this colt stay the distance.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 DOMINGO CAT (ML=3/1),
#9 PLAYER'S CHARM (ML=4/1),
#2 JAZZIE CAT (ML=8/1),
DOMINGO CAT - Didn't hit the board on Aug 7th at Del Mar. Followed it up with another less than stellar performance. Hard to wager on a racer that lays up for a long time then doesn't hit the board off the long turnout. Most unsatisfactory speed fig last time around the track at Santa Anita at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this runner will improve too much in today's race.
PLAYER'S CHARM - 4/1 is not priced right for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance event of late. This runner ran a common speed figure last out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably lose in today's event running that figure.
JAZZIE CAT - If he goes off anywhere close to the morning line odds of 8/1, I'll have to pass.
Bet on #7 STERLING WAGER to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds
Box [6,7,8] Total Cost: $6
[6,7,8] with [6,7,8] with [2,4,6,7,8] with [2,4,6,7,8] Total Cost: $36
Santa Anita - Race #4 - Post: 1:56pm - Optional Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $58,000 Class Rating: 97
#6 SAYES SO (ML=7/2)
#1 ANNIVERSARY KITTY (ML=3/1)
#7 ARTISTIC CHARM (GB) (ML=4/1)
#4 SPELLING AGAIN (ML=6/1)
SAYES SO - This first time turf runner is going to give these thoroughbreds a run for their money. She came in fourth in her try on a sluggish track on Feb 21st. Should like the turf. This filly should get an idyllic trip in this spot. She looks like the only 'stalker' in this clash. Mandella is strong in turf sprints. This animal should have no alibis if she doesn't win.
ANNIVERSARY KITTY - Have to give this filly a good shot. Ran a solid race last time out within the last month or so. She has the top (EPS) earnings per start. Check out this animal.
ARTISTIC CHARM (GB) - Don't throw this thoroughbred out due to her last race at KEM where she ran sixth on an off track. Should improve this time around. This animal has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Bejarano, and this one could bound home the winner. The addition of Lasix might make this animal wake up in this field. Dropping 9 lbs from last race. Could be a deciding factor today.
SPELLING AGAIN - This horse looks like a potential overlay right here at morning odds of 6/1. Finished sixth in last race at Santa Anita but was close at the wire. May be extremely hard to beat this thoroughbred on the grass today. Last time out scored a nice turf number, the highest of any of these animals. This jockey and conditioner's equines have been generating a beneficial ROI. Came home in quick time last race out. A positive sign.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 AMELIATHEAVIATOR (ML=4/1),
#5 VANLOSE STAIRWAY (ML=6/1),
#3 FANTASTIC MIZZ (ML=6/1),
AMELIATHEAVIATOR - I don't have a positive sensation about this mount in this clash.
VANLOSE STAIRWAY - This filly hasn't had any in the money efforts in short distance affairs in the last two months. This horse hasn't shown much effort in the last two affairs.
FANTASTIC MIZZ - Didn't look so hot last time out of the box. Probably won't make an impact in today's event.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - ARTISTIC CHARM (GB) - This foreign horse has raced well at a major track overseas.
We aren't playing on the win end this time around
Santa Anita - Race #5 - Post: 2:28pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $56,000 Class Rating: 83
#6 AIN'T SHE PRETTY (ML=4/1)
#10 STIPEND (ML=12/1)
#11 TWENTYFIVE TO LIFE (ML=15/1)
AIN'T SHE PRETTY - Hollendorfer sends this one on to the track for the first time. With a win percent of 28 with first timers, I'll give this one a long hard look. I really like it when a horse's last work is at the same distance or longer than today's contest like this one's is. Jerry 'The King' Hollendorfer is giving this one Lasix for the 1st time. Good move.
STIPEND - Filly's last prep was second fastest of the day for the distance. Cecil gets a break on this horse carrying 5 pounds less than last out. Should help in this event.
TWENTYFIVE TO LIFE - The morning line odds on this filly are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler 'King Jerry'. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. Trying to break maiden status moving from a turf race to the dirt. I think Hollendorfer will have her conditioned well for today's event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 CODACIOUS (ML=9/5),
#7 JEAN EDWARD (ML=4/1),
#9 MAJOR RAGER (ML=6/1),
CODACIOUS - Trying to beat this thoroughbred this time at the value of 9/5.
JEAN EDWARD - Would have to advance off that seventh place finish last out to make an impact here. Recent dropping speed ratings of 84/74/61 give a clue that this equine may be going off form.
MAJOR RAGER - I just don't have a good feeling about this vulnerable equine in this race.
Put your money on #6 AIN'T SHE PRETTY on the nose if you can get odds of 4/1 or more
Box [6,10,11] Total Cost: $6
Santa Anita - Race #6 - Post: 2:59pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $58,000 Class Rating: 101
#12 KAFISTER (ML=6/1)
#2 I B MIKE (ML=6/1)
#8 CITY CHAPEL (ML=30/1)
#7 FRENSHAM (ML=4/1)
KAFISTER - Everybody's got their favorite tracks, but if you ask this entrant, I think his answer would be Santa Anita.
I B MIKE - Gelding has shown some speed. This shorter trip should be better for him. This gelding is in good form. Finished third on March 7th. Have to like the way Glatt has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Equine is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today.
CITY CHAPEL - A racer coming back this soon after a sharp contest is a good omen. It would be wise to check this gelding's odds close to post time. I noticed he's won a few times at big odds.
FRENSHAM - O'Neill brings him right back. I advise you stay with this hot colt.
Vulnerable Contenders: #10 VENETIAN MASK (ML=3/1),
#11 BAM BAM (BRZ) (ML=6/1),
#1 CHASINTHEACES (ML=6/1),
VENETIAN MASK - No success for this vulnerable equine in a short distance event over the last couple of months tells me that this colt is in a thorny situation The result of seventh in the last race shows me that this equine may be going out of form.
BAM BAM (BRZ) - Today's event is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint clash in the last couple of months. Not the greatest of signs.
CHASINTHEACES - Can't bet on this entrant in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance race recently. Finished sixth on Mar 7th after the long turnout. Doubtful if there will be any change in this clash.
#12 KAFISTER is the play if we get odds of 9/2 or better
Santa Anita - Race #7 - Post: 3:30pm - Starter Handicap - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 96
#2 JADE WITH ENVY (ML=5/1)
#5 LOVE BLIND (ARG) (ML=6/1)
#8 GRANDIOSE TACTICS (ML=5/2)
#3 TOPPERS SUNSHINE (ML=6/1)
#7 LOAN SAVANT (ML=8/1)
JADE WITH ENVY - Using this jock/handler combination is a good move. Is ranked number one in earnings per race. A dominant try right here can augment the lifetime total.
LOVE BLIND (ARG) - I like to play this handicapping theory, a horse coming back off a strong effort within the last 30 days. Came home fast last out at Santa Anita. That type of move bodes well for her chances today.
GRANDIOSE TACTICS - Equibase speed figs on the turf point to this entrant as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance-surface. I like a pony that manages to hit the board as often as this mare. Almost always in the money so don't leave her out of your exotic bets. A racer coming back this quickly after a sharp outing is a good sign.
TOPPERS SUNSHINE - This mare is in nice form, having run a strong race on March 1st, finishing first. Getting a break of 5 pounds from last race at Santa Anita. She should make the most of this advantage. Solid average class rating on this horse. Should have the ability to run well on the turf.
LOAN SAVANT - This filly is in nice form. Ended up third on March 13th.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HANDFULL (ML=3/1),
#1 SORESCA (IRE) (ML=6/1),
HANDFULL - This mare in all probability won't be on the money near the finish line.
SORESCA (IRE) - This mount will in all probability be pulling up the rear as this field crosses the finish line.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - TOPPERS SUNSHINE - This racer is a nice turf runner and she has the best last race TrackMaster turf rating.
Bet on #5 LOVE BLIND (ARG) to win if we can get at least 7/1 odds
[2,5,8] with [2,3,5,7,8] with [2,3,5,7,8] Total Cost: $36
[2,5] with [2,5,8] with [2,3,5,7,8] with [2,3,5,7,8] Total Cost: $24
Santa Anita - Race #8 - Post: 4:05pm - Stakes - 12.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 112 Tokyo City Cup S. (Grade 3)
#1 HELM (ML=8/1)
#7 BAILOUTBOBBY (ML=6/1)
#5 ARLINGTON HOUSE (ML=6/1)
HELM - This jockey and handler have a lucrative ROI when they team up. Lets try to beat the probable favorites with this gelding. Just missed last out, but ran a decent race.
BAILOUTBOBBY - Entrant didn't land in the top three in last race, but did beat half the field, and made up ground in the homestretch. A slight improvement and this horse should be right there at the wire.
ARLINGTON HOUSE - Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. That 107 fig this gelding registered in his last race tells me he's a major player this time. Horse has improved at least 2 Equibase speed fig points in last 2 races. I look for that trend to continue in this race. This gelding gets a weight break of -6 pounds from last race. This should help in this race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BRONZO (CHI) (ML=7/5),
#8 SKY KINGDOM (ML=9/5),
#2 DECISIVE EDGE (ML=6/1),
BRONZO (CHI) - Where is the pace? None to be found in here to set things up for this horse. Earned a most unsatisfactory rating in the last race in the Santa Anita on March 7th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that rating.
SKY KINGDOM - This animal hasn't shown too much in the last couple of events.
DECISIVE EDGE - I can't play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the job completed occasionally. No speed in this bunch to help set-up his late rally. When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, he will have to earn a much better fig than last time out to vie in this dirt route.
Bet on #1 HELM to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
Box [1,5,7] Total Cost: $6
Santa Anita - Race #9 - Post: 4:38pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $56,000 Class Rating: 102
#11 SOLOMON NORTHUP (ML=3/1)
#3 ROCKIN ROBIN (ML=4/1)
#10 PRETENTIOUS (ML=6/1)
SOLOMON NORTHUP - Herrick brings him right back. I advise you stick with this strong colt. This thoroughbred has recorded the best recent turf Equibase speed figure at the dist-surf. The most recent speed rating of 100 is the top last race speed figure in the group. May be extremely hard to beat this noble animal on the grass today. Last time around the track scored a nice turf fig, the highest of any of these animals.
ROCKIN ROBIN - This equine has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by T. Baze, and this one could bound home the winner. This horse coming off a good effort in the last month or so is a serious competitor in my humble opinion. I just may give this one a fair chance. Should rebound off last race where he did run out of the money, but was within 5 lengths at the end.
PRETENTIOUS - Has discovered a good situation in today's event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 NAKAMOTO (ML=7/2),
#13 PAYTHEBANK (ML=9/2),
#7 ACTION HERO (ML=5/1),
NAKAMOTO - All kinds of crazy zip on board for this race. Little chance for this early speedball. This mount ran a quite unimpressive fig in the last race. He shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's race running that fig.
PAYTHEBANK - Run-of-the-mill speed fig last race out at Santa Anita at 1 mile. Don't think this horse will improve too much in today's event.
ACTION HERO - This mount ran a disappointing speed fig last race out. He shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's race running that fig.
#11 SOLOMON NORTHUP is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better
Box [3,10,11] Total Cost: $6
[3,10,11] with [3,10,11] with [1,2,3,10,11] with [1,2,3,10,11] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
[3,10,11] with [3,10,11] with [2,3,10,11] with [1,2,3,4,10,11] with [1,2,3,4,10,11] Total Cost: $72
Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.
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