Turf Club Analysts
Champagne
Aqueduct - Saturday, February 21, 2015

It's Saturday so we're playing Aqueduct. There is nothing greater than spending a few hours on a February Saturday at the races. It's certainly, a better way to spend your time than at the ball yard. Like some tracks say, racing is where the athletes pay the fans. Here's the deal. We know a little about playing the ponies and we are going to share our insights with you. We will give you the straight scoop and hold your hand through what some think is a minefield of information. We will give you the best of what we got, and help you figure out what to wager on (and what not to). Hopefully you will win some money. Even if not, it's sure to be fun!

Cash

Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 3 - #6 CONDO COMMANDO (ML=1/2)

Today's Live Longshot: Race 9 - #3 KODIAK KODY (ML=8/1)


Bar

Aqueduct - Race #1 - Post: 1:20pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 HONOR BOUND (ML=5/2)
#3 PARTY ON (ML=8/5)


HONOR BOUND - Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. Was in a $25,000 Maiden Claiming race at Aqueduct in the last race. That race had a class rating of 75 and he is moving down in this event. A certain solid contender. Three consecutive improved speed figs (45-59-62) make this thoroughbred a dominant contender. PARTY ON - You'll be making money left and right by turning your cash onto this rider/trainer combination. Taking a trip down the ladder based on class; has the capability to make his presence felt. That 66 fig this gelding recorded in his last contest tells me he's a major player in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 AMERICAN HERO (ML=5/1), #5 FROSTY POP LARRY (ML=6/1), #6 LEATHERHEAD LURIE (ML=8/1),

AMERICAN HERO - This horse just hasn't looked sharp lately. 70/64/52, are the decreasing speed ratings for this pony. FROSTY POP LARRY - Just don't think he is pegged at the proper price at the given odds. LEATHERHEAD LURIE - Today's race is 6 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event in the last sixty days. Not the greatest of signs. This gelding garnered a speed fig in his last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#2 HONOR BOUND is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

Bar

Aqueduct - Race #2 - Post: 1:49pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 97

Rating: Golden Dollar

#1 PLEIADIAN (ML=3/1)
#6 BECKER'S GALAXY (ML=6/1)
#3 RAP D'ORO (ML=5/2)
#2 MATT AND JESSE (ML=10/1)


PLEIADIAN - My associates and I have made bucks playing thoroughbreds with this type of pace. Follow my advice and do the same. This gelding hasn't won in his last three starts, but he did win on October 18th against better at 1 mile 70 yards. This gelding gets a weight break of -6 lbs from last race. This certainly could make the difference in this race. BECKER'S GALAXY - This gelding is almost always in the top three. A racer coming back this promptly after a solid outing is a good omen. RAP D'ORO - Last raced at Aqueduct with a poor post. I swiped some data from The Brain, and his computer says the inside should be a big help to this one today. MATT AND JESSE - You probably want to discount that last race at Aqueduct on a track listed as good where he finished out of the money. Should do well in this race without the slop. This gelding recorded a nice speed rating of 94 in his last affair. That speed figure should be strong enough to win in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HOP SKIP AND AWAY (ML=7/2), #4 UNBRIDLED LOGIC (ML=6/1),

HOP SKIP AND AWAY - Recent declining speed ratings of 95/81/74 give an indication that this animal may be going off form. This racer ran a disappointing speed fig last time around the track. He shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat in today's race running that figure. I can't play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the assignment done occasionally.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #6 BECKER'S GALAXY to win if you can get at least 7/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Aqueduct - Race #3 - Post: 2:18pm - Stakes - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 94 Busher S.

Rating: Golden Dollar

#6 CONDO COMMANDO (ML=1/2)
#2 PAULASSILVERLINING (ML=3/1)


CONDO COMMANDO - Won her last after shipping in. I like her again. This horse brings in a lot of cash per race. At the top in this event. Rodriguez seems to have this filly primed for a big effort. Her workout pattern is outstanding. PAULASSILVERLINING - I took a look at this filly's finishes. She's almost always in the money.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 OVERPREPARED (ML=6/1),

OVERPREPARED - Notched a substandard speed rating in the last race in the Busanda on Jan 16th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - CONDO COMMANDO - This horse's pace figures lead me to believe that she will use her energy to take this event from gate to wire.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

No reasonable straight wagers found for this race

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

6 with 2 with [3,4,5] Total Cost: $3

Bar

Aqueduct - Race #4 - Post: 2:48pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: Golden Dollar

#6 INAFLASH (ML=4/1)
#3 PAINTED PONEY (ML=6/1)
#7 WHAT THE FROST (ML=12/1)
#4 STAR MAGNOLIA (ML=5/1)


INAFLASH - Nice return on investment for this jock and trainer twosome. Rider hops back atop after getting to know the mount by riding last out. That's always a good thing. I am keen on that last effort on January 25th at Aqueduct where she ended up first. PAINTED PONEY - Just check out her most recent fig, 87. That one looks good in this bunch. That recent bullet 38.2 work shows that this mare is ready for a top race today. Three consecutive improved speed figs (57-64-87) make this animal a dominant contender. Ran a quick time for the last quarter on January 29th at Aqueduct. Anything close right here should get the job done. WHAT THE FROST - Ran a lackluster race at Aqueduct last race out. Racing on a non-sloppy track puts this mare at the top of my list of contenders. This animal could be tough today, especially since Jara rode last time out and now should be familiar with this one. This horse is number one in earnings per start. She looks nice in today's event. STAR MAGNOLIA - After the event aboard this horse on Jan 25th, the jock is going to 'know' the filly much better. A campaigner coming back this soon after a strong race is a good omen.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MY TEE TIME (ML=1/1),

MY TEE TIME - Last ran on Jan 29th at Aqueduct, finishing sixth. Not likely to advance off of that effort today.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #3 PAINTED PONEY on the win end if we get at least 6/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Aqueduct - Race #5 - Post: 3:18pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating: Golden Dollar

#6 RIDINGWITHTHEDEVIL (ML=1/1)
#8 EPIPHANY (ML=7/2)
#4 BETTY BING BING (ML=15/1)


RIDINGWITHTHEDEVIL - Alvarado rode this thoroughbred for the initial time in the last race and comes right back this time. Earnings per race is something that I believe can be a key factor. This horse is ranked at the very top in this group. EPIPHANY - Rider hops back aloft after getting to know the race horse by riding last time out. That's always a positive sign. The addition of the 'hood' usually means that a trainer wants a campaigner to show more speed or to keep her attention focused. A repeat of that most recent performance on January 29th where she garnered a fig of 74 looks good enough to prove victorious in this clash. BETTY BING BING - This animal could be tough this time, especially since Rodriguez rode last out and now should be familiar with this one. This filly should be in tip-top shape, this far into her form cycle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MANHATTAN GIN (ML=5/1), #1 SHARE 'N STONE (ML=6/1),

MANHATTAN GIN - Unlikely that the speed figure she recorded on January 25th will be good enough in this clash. SHARE 'N STONE - When examining today's class figure, she will have to record a better fig than last out to battle in this dirt sprint.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #4 BETTY BING BING to win if we can get at least 15/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

6 with [4,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [4,6,8] Total Cost: $6

Bar

Aqueduct - Race #6 - Post: 3:48pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $57,000 Class Rating: 94

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 HUGE ASSET (ML=7/2)
#6 GIANTINTHEMOONLITE (ML=5/2)


HUGE ASSET - This rider and conditioner have a lucrative return on investment when they are put together. Gelding's last race was against tougher open company. He's in with easier 'state breds' today. This horse likes to win at different tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. GIANTINTHEMOONLITE - I am keen on that most recent race on Jan 29th at Aqueduct where he finished second. I like a pony that manages to finish in the money as often as this colt. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets. On board this thoroughbred on January 29th and Velasquez is yet again in the irons this time. He has the highest earnings per race. Take a good look at this animal. Finished ahead of today's favorite in the last race at Aqueduct. Can do the same again right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 FOUR DIRECTIONS (ML=2/1), #1A CHANGEWILLDOYAGOOD (ML=2/1), #5 SEA RAVEN (ML=6/1),

FOUR DIRECTIONS - This horse hasn't been in the money in either of his last two outings. CHANGEWILLDOYAGOOD - Difficult to put your money on this speedball. Too much zip in the race. SEA RAVEN - Finished third in his most recent effort with a quite unimpressive speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #2 HUGE ASSET to win if you can get odds of 9/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Aqueduct - Race #7 - Post: 4:18pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $55,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating: Golden Dollar

#9 NON FINISCE MAI (ML=5/2)
#5 ZIPPA TEQUILA (ML=4/1)
#6 MARC THE SKY (ML=8/1)


NON FINISCE MAI - Last workout was the second fastest of the day. Undeniably on edge for a good one today. Don't often see a favorable return on investment like +61. This rider/conditioner tandem has done well together over the last year. Horse didn't get the best of trips in her maiden trip on the track. Expect better today. I like this filly. Has the topmost earnings per start in this one. It is my opinion that fillys run better the 2nd time they get Lasix. Gullo puts this filly on it for the second time today, so give this one a look. This filly's last speed figure is lofty enough to score here, I'll wager on her right back this time around. ZIPPA TEQUILA - The return on investment when Velasquez and Servis team up is out of sight. Have to give this filly a good chance. Ran a strong outing in the last race within the last thirty days. MARC THE SKY - I just may give this one a good shot. Should improve off last race where she did run out of the money, but was within five lengths at the end. Alvarado rode this horse for the initial time in the last race and comes right back today. Filly will add blinkers to the equipment package today. That often leads to an improved performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 GINNED UP (ML=3/1), #3 PARADISE PEAK (ML=8/1), #8 MOONDANCE JOY (ML=8/1),

GINNED UP - Difficult to take this steed at these odds after the finish position (fifth) in the last race. When checking today's class figure, she will have to record a better speed fig than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt sprint. PARADISE PEAK - Tough to support any entrant in a sprint affair if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months. Doesn't seem inspiring to me after the lack of any type of closing ability on December 31st. MOONDANCE JOY - Somewhat easily forgotten rating last time out at Aqueduct at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this mount will improve too much in today's race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #6 MARC THE SKY to win if you can get odds of 7/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,9] Box [5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [5,6,9] Total Cost: $6

Bar

Aqueduct - Race #8 - Post: 4:48pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $67,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 KARA'S MATCH POINT (ML=6/1)
#2 SUSTAINABLE (ML=7/2)
#9 LAURA CAN DISCO (ML=9/2)
#10 VIOLET HOUR (ML=15/1)


KARA'S MATCH POINT - The jockey/trainer duet of Jara and Rice has a strong return on investment together. If the front runners get weary, this mare will kick into high gear. This mare is probably the best closer in the field. While the finish was disappointing, this fine animal made a good stretch move last time out at Aqueduct. Will most certainly do better in this race. SUSTAINABLE - I like this filly a lot here. She shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. The jock and conditioner combination have a positive ROI when they unite. LAURA CAN DISCO - The ROI when Rose and Gullo get together is outstanding. I like to see fast works. This filly's last one was very good. Second fastest of the day. Is ranked uppermost in earnings per race. A strong effort right here in this race can augment that bankroll. I am keen on that recent effort on Jan 23rd at Aqueduct where she ended up first. VIOLET HOUR - You may want to discount that last race at Aqueduct in the slop where she finished out of the top three. Should do well in this field under better track conditions. With 'blinkers-on' this mare should be very competitive.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 JUBILANT VISION (ML=3/1), #4 BENNY'S BULLET (ML=4/1),

JUBILANT VISION - This morning-line favorite may be out of condition without any recent morning drills. BENNY'S BULLET - I have some doubts when a less than sharp equine has front wraps added in the last race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #7 KARA'S MATCH POINT on the nose if you can get odds of 9/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [7,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Aqueduct - Race #9 - Post: 5:18pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating: Golden Dollar

#6 JOHN SILVER (ML=2/1)
#3 KODIAK KODY (ML=8/1)
#9 ETERNAL BULL (ML=4/1)
#8 STALAGMITE (ML=7/2)


JOHN SILVER - The January 17th race at Aqueduct was at a class level of (94). Dropping to a lower level considerably, so he should be in a good position. You have to really like that most recent race fig, 74, which is the best latest race speed fig of this field. Ranked at the very top in earnings per race. Another indication that this horse has the class to win. KODIAK KODY - It looks like the pace horses may duel each other into the ground. When the real running starts this gelding should be cruising down the homestretch. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a return. Last ran at Aqueduct and finished fifth. Reviewing his PP data, I see he was close at the finish line, within five of the winner. ETERNAL BULL - This pony coming off a sharp try in the last thirty days is a win candidate in my humble opinion. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough races since the vacation and should be fit. Finished outside the top 3 last out at Aqueduct, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 4/1 makes me think he's got a chance. STALAGMITE - This gelding is in nice form, having run a good race on February 1st, finishing third. This gelding should be at the peak of fitness, this far into his form cycle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 ICE WAGON (ML=5/1),

ICE WAGON - This horse doesn't have a conquering character. Repeatedly finishes in the place or show spot. This questionable contender ran a disappointing speed figure last race out. He shouldn't improve and will probably suffer defeat in today's event running that figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#3 KODIAK KODY to win at post-time odds of 7/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip




Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.

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