Aqueduct - Saturday November 18, 2017
We are your escorts for today's wonderful Saturday program from Aqueduct. Get on our backs as we take you through a day at the races, avoiding the snares and missteps that will happen to those outside of our sojourn. Some of our handicapping sidekicks will be helping us along the way. Stay with us and hopefully we'll all have some money to take home at the end of the day.
  • Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 2 - #1 NORTHERNSTREETGAL (ML=8/1)

  • Today's Live Longshot: Race 1 - #3 LETHAL LEGACY (ML=12/1)
8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 LETHAL LEGACY (ML=12/1)
#2 TISBURY (ML=5/2)
#4 HARDLY MATE (ML=6/1)


LETHAL LEGACY - The October 19th race at Santa Anita was at a class level of (98). Dropping down the class ladder drastically, so she should be in a good place.solid average class rating on this horse. Should have the capability to run well on the turf.TISBURY - In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the grass. This one has the highest average class rating in the field.A repeat of that last race on Oct 8th where she earned a fig of 88 looks lofty enough to score in this event.HARDLY MATE - This filly is in fine form, having run a good race on Oct 26th, finishing first.Recent speed figs show strong pattern of improvement.Lasix can take some getting used to, especially for a filly. They usually hit stride the second time using it, like we have with this horse.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 OUT OF TROUBLE (ML=3/1), #5 JONQUIL (ML=7/2), #7 KAT O MINE (ML=8/1)

OUT OF TROUBLE - When looking at today's class rating, she will have to record a much better speed figure than in the last race to compete in this turf route.JONQUIL - This racer likes to hit the board, but doesn't usually win. Don't put in the top spot.This horse ran a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating last time around the track. She shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat in today's race running that figure.KAT O MINE - Had to give me much more than that last time around the track. Never made much of an impact.

Top HatThe Turf Man - TISBURY - Last race turf figure for this filly is superior to the rest of these entrants. You would be wise to consider investing on this thoroughbred.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#3 LETHAL LEGACY to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $46,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 NORTHERNSTREETGAL (ML=8/1)


NORTHERNSTREETGAL - This filly has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Contessa. Better beware of this angle.This pony coming off a solid effort in the last month is a solid contender in my book.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LADY BY CHOICE (ML=7/5), #6 GANGBUSTERS (ML=3/1), #3 TIMELESS BEAUTY (ML=5/1)

LADY BY CHOICE - The sixth place finish in the last race was not the best.GANGBUSTERS - Improbable that the speed figure she recorded on Oct 29th will be enough in this event.TIMELESS BEAUTY - Couldn't make up any ground whatsoever on October 15th. Hard to wager on this time at the expected odds.disappointing speed rating last out at Belmont Park at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this mount will improve too much in today's race.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#1 NORTHERNSTREETGAL is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

1 with 4

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 106

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 TALE OF E DUBAI (ML=5/1)
#4 SCHIVARELLI (ML=8/5)
#1 TOP BRASS (ML=7/2)


TALE OF E DUBAI - This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Franco gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing.Don't often see a favorable ROI like +56. This rider/conditioner pair has done well together over the last year.I think Nevin is making a good move here. This colt can only be aided by the shorter distance.SCHIVARELLI - Rodriguez moves this horse here to Aqueduct from Belmont Park. Looking at the horse's PPs, he has shown the ability to win on different ovals.A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a solid effort is a good omen.You have to consider this thoroughbred in today's event. He has been claimed out of his last two contests.TOP BRASS - Jacobson moves this horse here to Aqueduct from Penn National. Looking at the horse's PP lines, he has shown the ability to win at multiple tracks.This pony coming off a solid effort in the last 30 days is a contender in my book.This colt registered a nice fig of 101 in his last affair. That speed fig should be lofty enough to triumph this time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BOLITA BOYZ (ML=5/2), #1A BLAZE'N PROSPECTOR (ML=7/2), #3 A FLEET ATTITUDE (ML=6/1)

BOLITA BOYZ - Where is the speed? None to be found in here to set things up for this horse.BLAZE'N PROSPECTOR - This steed ran a most unsatisfactory speed figure in the last race. He shouldn't run much better and will likely lose today running that figure.A FLEET ATTITUDE - Didn't hit the board on September 21st at Belmont Park. Followed it up with another less than stellar try.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #2 TALE OF E DUBAI to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:


** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $67,000 Class Rating: 100

Rating: Golden Dollar

#8 SCHEME (ML=3/1)
#1 DRIVEN BY SPEED (ML=8/1)
#4 MAGIC JOAN (ML=6/1)
#7 GOLD LACE (ML=15/1)


SCHEME - Have to give this beautiful animal a serious look. In recent races, has posted the best Equibase speed figures on the turf at this distance.Bravo was aboard this filly last time out and was impressed enough to take the equine right back.Came home in quick time last out. A positive sign.DRIVEN BY SPEED - Had a dominant closing move last race out, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar effort today, and it's straight to the winner's circle.Have to make this filly a win candidate; she comes off a nice effort on October 27th.Have to like this filly today. If you take a look at her PP lines you see a definite trend, getting closer with each and every race.PP data show this horse with three improving speed ratings. 'Johnny V' should be on a horse ready to win right here.MAGIC JOAN - This filly is in top physical condition right now. Ran first last race out and comes back promptly.When this rider and handler combine forces you have to take a look. Rosario and Cox have been fabulous together.It is my opinion that fillys run better the 2nd time they get Lasix. Cox puts this filly on it for the 2nd time today, so give this one a look.GOLD LACE - You'll be generating money left and right by turning your gambling cash onto this jockey/trainer combination.A horse coming back this soon after a nice contest is a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 SPEIGHGAL (ML=7/2), #6 WAKE ISLAND (ML=4/1)

SPEIGHGAL - This runner ran a quite unimpressive speed rating last time around the track. She shouldn't run much better and will likely get beat in today's event running that fig.WAKE ISLAND - Finished first in her most recent race with a substandard rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field.

Top HatWinston - DRIVEN BY SPEED - Made up lots of ground on Oct 27th at 6 furlongs. Should relish the distance of 1 mile.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #8 SCHEME to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

8 with [4,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [4,7,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:


** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
6.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $57,000 Class Rating: 94

Rating: Golden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 DISCRETIONARY MARQ (ML=7/2)
#6 PSYCHIC ENERGY (ML=5/1)
#9 MISSION COMMAND (ML=3/1)
#12 CANARSIE KID (ML=6/1)
#14 BENEVOLENCE (ML=2/1)


DISCRETIONARY MARQ - Clement has a very solid win pct in grass sprints. This colt should be in great shape.widely used handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. A live horse today.he has the top earnings per start (EPS). Take a long look at this animal.PSYCHIC ENERGY - This gelding is in nice physical condition, having run a nice race on Oct 21st, finishing fourth.Horses out of the barn of Rice have been great on the grass. Should perform well.Have to like the way Rice has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today.Lets try to beat the favorites with this gelding. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty good race.MISSION COMMAND - It looks like Castellano had to learn about this colt on Oct 26th when riding him for the initial time. Back aboard again today.Ran a sizzling time for the last quarter on October 26th at Belmont Park. Anything close right here should get the job done.This one has increased his speed figs in each of the last 2 races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at.CANARSIE KID - Faces state bred foes today after finishing first versus 'open' company on September 30th.rode this thoroughbred on September 30th and Diaz is right back in the irons this time.Don't often see a profitable ROI like +999. This rider/trainer twosome has done well together over the last 12 months.This gelding has the top turf rating in his last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here horse has a good chance.That 97 fig this gelding notched in his last contest tells me he's a big time player today.Horse has improved at least 2 speed figure points in last two races. I look for that trend to continue right here.BENEVOLENCE - This jockey and conditioner are reliable together. Winning pct when teamed up is hard to better.'Johnny V' is back for another contest today after racing atop this equine for the first ride on November 12th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better.This animal has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 64 to 86 to 91 in succession.gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.

Vulnerable Contenders: #13 ETHAN HUNT (ML=3/1), #1 D'YER MAK'ER (ML=4/1), #3 OUTRAGEOUS BET (ML=8/1)

ETHAN HUNT - 3/1 is just too low of a price to take on this thoroughbred.D'YER MAK'ER - Don't think that this gelding has value at 4/1 this time.OUTRAGEOUS BET - 8/1 odds isn't enough for this participant when checking the most recent outings.most of the time I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in short distance races in order to support him.

Top HatHal - CANARSIE KID - Look for this gelding to run well versus these horses. Last time out, scored a fraction of 44.5 and a final time of 108.5, registering a very solid final quarter.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Save the win bets for another race

EXACTA WAGERS:

None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating: Golden Dollar

#16 ALKHAATAM (ML=6/5)
#7 FACTOR THIS (ML=8/1)
#9 UNLEVERAGED (ML=7/2)
#6 DESERT STONE (IRE) (ML=15/1)


ALKHAATAM - Ortiz rode this thoroughbred for the initial time last out and comes right back in today's contest.Horses out of the barn of Brown have been strong on the turf. Should perform well right here.Brown brings him right back. I advocate you stay with this hot colt.This jockey and conditioner are consistent together. Winning percent when teamed up is difficult to beat.last out, this one was in a race at Belmont Park. Finished third, but had a decent chunk of the win pool. Could be dangerous right here in this race.FACTOR THIS - Barker brings him right back. I recommend you stay with this strong colt.have to give this mount a good look. In recent races, has posted the best speed figs on the turf at this distance.UNLEVERAGED - Got to appreciate a good work horse. This colt's last morning work was second fastest of the day for the distance.I seem to always make money betting Brown horses on the turf. That barn has a strong win pct for this distance/surface.Going on Lasix for the first time. While a conventional handicapping angle, it's still quite important when deciding on your contenders.This colt has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Brown. Better be wary of this angle.DESERT STONE (IRE) - Running 1 1/16 miles on the turf, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This animal has the tops in the bunch.rider jumped on this colt's back for the 1st ride on Oct 28th. Should 'know' the animal even better in today's contest.Running on the grass today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #15 WESTERDALE (ML=2/1), #4 VICTOR LOUNGE (IRE) (ML=4/1), #1 MATHEMATICIAN (ML=5/1)

WESTERDALE - Tough to put your cash on this front-runner. Too much speed in the race.mediocre speed rating last race out at Belmont Park at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's race.VICTOR LOUNGE (IRE) - Last performed on September 10th at Belmont Park, finishing eighth. Not likely to get better off of that try in today's event.he's almost certainly going to get roasted up front.doubtful that the speed fig he garnered on September 10th will hold up in this affair.MATHEMATICIAN - He's likely going to get cooked up front.quite unimpressive rating last time around the track at Belmont Park at 1 mile. Don't think this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's event.

Top HatHal - DESERT STONE (IRE) - His solid final fraction in his last race on October 28th positions him well with these thoroughbreds.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #7 FACTOR THIS on top if we're getting at least 7/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,000 Class Rating: 103

Rating: Golden Dollar

#6 SCARLY CHARLY (ML=7/2)
#7 WILL DID IT (ML=3/1)
#3 SIR BOND (ML=6/1)


SCARLY CHARLY - While the finish was disappointing, this fine animal made a good stretch move in the last race at Belmont Park. Have to do better in this race.This gelding is number one in earnings per start. Take a good look at this thoroughbred in the saddling ring.WILL DID IT - The 97 recent race speed fig looks strong on paper.SIR BOND - You always have to be on the patrol for bankroll building jock/trainer combos; we have one right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MORNING BUZZ (ML=4/1), #9 WAR EAGLE'S RETURN (ML=6/1)

MORNING BUZZ - When checking today's class figure, he will have to garner a better speed figure than last time out to compete in this dirt sprint.WAR EAGLE'S RETURN - A closer like this one needs an early battle to set things up and he isn't likely to get one this time around.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 SCARLY CHARLY is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $150,000 Class Rating: 112

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 FIRE AWAY (ML=8/1)
#10 MONSTER BEA (ML=15/1)
#5 BLACKTYPE (FR) (ML=3/1)
#6 A LOT (ML=6/1)


FIRE AWAY - This horse has the top turf rating in his last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here horse has a good chance.Just check out his last speed figure, 115. That one fits well in this group.MONSTER BEA - The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Casse. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins.I like this mount. Should be familiar with this level since he ran against the same type in the last race at Belmont Park.horse didn't land in the top three in last race, but did beat half the field, and made up ground in the stretch. A slight improvement and this horse should be right there at the wire.BLACKTYPE (FR) - This gelding is almost always in-the-money.Changes tracks from last out at Belmont Park to here. Multiple wins on different tracks tell me this animal likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign.A LOT - Owns the highest speed rating on the turf at this distance.This horse has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Brown. Better beware of this angle.When I handicap a grass race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This horse has the highest average class in the entire field.Finished off the board last out at Belmont Park, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 6/1 makes me think he's got a chance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 DELTA PRINCE (ML=5/2), #12 KANTUNE (ML=4/1), #1 NIGHT PROWLER (ML=5/1)

DELTA PRINCE - Doesn't seem to be in a cozy spot this time.KANTUNE - Last ran on Nov 11th at Aqueduct, finishing tenth. Unlikely to move up off of that outing in today's race.This horse recorded a speed figure in his last race which probably isn't good enough in today's event.NIGHT PROWLER - When examining today's Equibase class figure, he will have to register a better speed rating than last time around the track to compete in this turf route.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #2 FIRE AWAY on the nose if you can get odds of 9/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $55,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#13 MISS HOT STONES (ML=5/2)
#4 REATA'S REWARD (ML=5/1)


MISS HOT STONES - This filly is in superb physical condition right now. Ended up second in the last race and comes back soon.Note that although this filly finished in the place spot in her last race, she was well ahead of the third place horse. This is a classic positive angle.Last race October 26th was pretty strong for a Maiden Special race so this filly's race wasn't all that bad.This thoroughbred brings in a lot of money per race. I believe she can add to the lifetime bankroll right here.REATA'S REWARD - Falcone drops this one in today for only her 2nd race. Should do better than last out.aboard this mount on September 21st and Rosario is right back in the irons in today's contest.I always like to see a filly getting Lasix for the second time. This one fits the bill.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 FOREVER DREAMS (ML=6/1), #8 TURN AND BERN (ML=8/1)

FOREVER DREAMS - If this event shapes up right, all the speed horses will force a fierce pace battle early. Too bad this horse is one of those front runners.Finished second in her most recent race with a most unsatisfactory speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field.TURN AND BERN - The Brain cautions me to stay away from horses in sprint contests that haven't finished in the money in short distance contests lately.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#13 MISS HOT STONES to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

13 with 4 with [2,6,8] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:


Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.

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