Belmont - Monday, May 25, 2015
A day at the races is always more satisfying when you're cashing tickets. The Turf Club Analysts are going to give you some sound lessons on today's race card from Belmont. We'll comment on the leading plays and advise against the vulnerable contenders.We'll even mark up some prime wagers for you to make. Let's all go and make some cash!
Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 8 - #9 KHARAFA (ML=9/5)
Today's Live Longshot: Race 5 - #1 POSSESSED (ML=12/1)
Belmont - Race #1 - Post: 1:20pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $70,000 Class Rating: 87
#5 ONE SIDED (ML=9/5)
#6 WATCH THE TIE (ML=3/1)
#8 HUNDRED PERCENT (ML=5/1)
#4 GOT WINGED (ML=12/1)
ONE SIDED - Castellano comes to saddle up after getting to know the colt in the last race. Believe in this horse. No other viable speed gives this animal a strong chance at the winner's circle. This colt is number one in earnings per start (EPS). Take a long look at this one in the paddock.
WATCH THE TIE - I think Belmont players know a good thing when they see the jock/conditioner duo of Cruz and Gullo. Their win pct together has been great.
HUNDRED PERCENT - Englehart brings him back again. I advocate you stick with this live gelding. Note that although this gelding finished 2nd in his last race, he was well ahead of the third place horse. This is a classic positive angle. That 85 fig this gelding registered in his last race tells me he's a key player this time out.
GOT WINGED - Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Dini enters him at a similar level today. I'd expect an improved performance.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SCOUT IT OUT (ML=6/1),
SCOUT IT OUT - Doesn't look to be in a comfortable spot today.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ONE SIDED - Love the latest bullet workout. Should perform well today.
#4 GOT WINGED is the play if we get odds of 10/1 or better
5 with [4,6,8]
5 with [4,6,8] with [4,6,8] Total Cost: $6
Belmont - Race #2 - Post: 1:51pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $125,000 Class Rating: 95 Mount Vernon S.
#6 MAH JONG MADDNES (ML=8/1)
#7 INVADING HUMOR (ML=5/2)
#5 UNBELIEVABLE DREAM (ML=7/2)
MAH JONG MADDNES - This mare should find these state breds easier than what she faced in her last contest on May 1st. If you review the PP's for this horse, you'll see she has recorded the top speed fig at the distance and surface. A repeat race in this race and this horse has a superb chance to win. When I handicap a race on the grass, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This fine animal has the highest average class in the entire bunch.
INVADING HUMOR - This mare's last race was back on Nov 8th but I do believe she can run a good one coming off a layoff. Ran against 'open' company last out, in with state breds today. The return on investment when Maragh and Levine hook up is outstanding. Forgive the out of the money finish on the off track last race out. Without a sloppy track, has a shot in this race.
UNBELIEVABLE DREAM - State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this mare's move into the 'state bred' class today should make her tough in here. Jockey hops up atop after getting to know the horse by riding in the last race. That's always a good tip. Took a class drop last time around the track at Belmont. Tagg keeps her at the same level in this race. I think that's a good move. Have to give this mare a good shot. Ran a solid effort last time out within the last month.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 OLD HARBOR (ML=3/1),
#4 LADY GRACENOTE (ML=4/1),
#8 LAURA CAN DISCO (ML=5/1),
OLD HARBOR - Earned her best speed rating last out, but the track conditions may have played a major role in the outcome.
LADY GRACENOTE - If you keep betting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down most of the time.
LAURA CAN DISCO - Even though victorious in last, didn't finish the way you'd like to see when stepping up to face stiffer competition.
Go with #6 MAH JONG MADDNES on top if we're getting at least 4/1 odds
Box [6,7] Box [5,6]
Box [5,6,7] Total Cost: $6
Belmont - Race #3 - Post: 2:22pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $200,000 Class Rating: 112 Commentator S.
#1 READTHEPROSPECTUS (ML=5/2)
#5 READTHEBYLINE (ML=3/1)
#1A BOND VIGILANTE (ML=5/2)
READTHEPROSPECTUS - When Velazquez and Brown join forces on horses the return on investment has been terrific at +56. True, this campaigner is coming off a layoff, but this gelding runs well fresh. Everybody's got their favorite tracks, but if you ask this racer, I think his answer would be Belmont.
READTHEBYLINE - This jockey/trainer duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +39. Comes out of a last event against 'open' company on March 21st and faces what I believe are easier 'state breds' today. I think that this contest's shorter trip should help this gelding.
BOND VIGILANTE - A little change in scenery has got to do this thoroughbred well. Reading the PP lines, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle at different racing venues. You'll be making money left and right by turning your gambling cash onto this jock/handler combination.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SARATOGA SNACKS (ML=2/1),
#3 EMPIRE DREAMS (ML=5/1),
SARATOGA SNACKS - Quite unimpressive speed fig last time out at Aqueduct at 7 furlongs. Don't believe this mount will improve too much today.
EMPIRE DREAMS - The speed figure last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this thoroughbred as a vulnerable competitor.
Have to go with #1 Entry on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
Belmont - Race #4 - Post: 2:53pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $72,000 Class Rating: 85
#4 GERALDINE (ML=4/1)
#3 RAZIA SULTANA (ML=3/1)
#8 MOMMA GIOVANNA (ML=12/1)
#7 SHADES OF INDYGO (ML=10/1)
GERALDINE - Looking at this filly's running lines, I see she's almost always in-the-money. Ran against 'open' company last race out, in with state breds today. This filly is in good form, having run a good race on May 4th, finishing second. This filly earned a good speed figure of 85 in her last race. That fig should be high enough to score this time.
RAZIA SULTANA - Violette seems to have this filly primed for a big effort. Her workout pattern is great. This filly is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. Is ranked number one in (EPS) earnings per start. A strong try in this race will add to that total.
MOMMA GIOVANNA - Filly looks like the lone speed here. She may turn the race into a procession. This filly gets a weight break of -9 lbs from last race. This certainly could make the difference in this event. The improved speed figures over the last 3 races is strong. Pletcher drops her in this affair in shape and ready to win.
SHADES OF INDYGO - This entrant could be tough in today's race, especially since Carmouche rode last out and now should be better acquainted with this one. Filly won shipping here on April 30th and looks good right back.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PERFECT FREUD (ML=7/2),
#1 PRIZE TAKER (ML=5/1),
#2 LEGALLY BAY (ML=8/1),
PERFECT FREUD - Will probably be educated to pay some respect to her elders today.
PRIZE TAKER - You always think this animal has a shot to win, but she fails most of the time. Tough to like the downward moving flow (86/77/72) of speed ratings. This mare notched a rating in her last race which probably isn't good enough in today's race. Pace makes the race and the paucity of pace means this closer will have to rally without any help.
LEGALLY BAY - If you keep choosing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be frustrated often. Most unsatisfactory speed fig in the last race at Aqueduct at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this mount will improve too much in today's event.
Bet on #4 GERALDINE to win if you can get at least 4/1 odds
Box [4,8] Box [4,7]
Belmont - Race #5 - Post: 3:24pm - Stakes - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $125,000 Class Rating: 97 Mike Lee S.
#1 POSSESSED (ML=12/1)
#2 OSTROLENKA (ML=5/2)
#5 GYPSUM JOHNNY (ML=15/1)
#3 BATTLE OF EVERMORE (ML=6/1)
POSSESSED - This colt is in good physical condition. Ended up first on April 26th. I like this colt a lot here. He shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. Colt was in versus 'open company' on April 26th and should find this group easier to deal with. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back.
OSTROLENKA - I think this colt is ready to run a good one. He's had enough outings since the vacation and should be fit. Colt tallied a victory his last race here on May 2nd as a shipper. I think he looks like a winner once again. You have to really like that last race figure, 108, which is the top last race speed fig of this field. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figs (68-96-108) make this animal a powerful contender. This colt has been posting some excellent workout times.
GYPSUM JOHNNY - This colt faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look. Trainer, Contessa, has been deliberate with this colt off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. Contessa brings him right back. I recommend you stay with this hot colt. This colt has been posting some excellent workout times.
BATTLE OF EVERMORE - This colt faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look. I have to like this colt's chances of winning at the shorter distance. Just missed hitting the board on Apr 16th at Santa Anita. With decent odds in this event, he has my interest.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 WINCOMA (ML=3/1),
#9 GOOD LUCK GUS (ML=5/1),
#8 PAPA SHOT (ML=6/1),
WINCOMA - All types of crazy early zip on board for this affair. Slight chance for this front-runner.
GOOD LUCK GUS - This colt hasn't had any recent success in sprint events. I find it hard to play him in this contest.
PAPA SHOT - Can't wager on this entrant in today's sprint of 7 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint event of late.
Bet on #1 POSSESSED to win if we can get at least 9/2 odds
Belmont - Race #6 - Post: 3:55pm - Allowance - 7.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $72,000 Class Rating: 93
#13 CHASINTHEBLUES (ML=6/1)
#9 DEFICIT HAWK (ML=7/2)
#15 DRAMA KING (ML=2/1)
#12 FOREVER UTOPIA (ML=8/1)
#2 KID BLAST (ML=15/1)
CHASINTHEBLUES - Rider and trainer do well when they work together. Castellano and Hills have been consistent together. This gelding is in first-rate condition right now. Finished third last out and comes back quickly.
DEFICIT HAWK - This colt was impressive in finishing third on a slow track on April 23rd. A signal that he should do well against these horses in his first turf try. This speedball should profit from this contest's shorter distance. This animal has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 62 to 84 to 86 right in a row.
DRAMA KING - This colt is almost always in the money. Ran against 'open' company last race out, in with state breds today. This first time turf runner is going to give these ponies a run for their money. He came in first in his try on a sluggish track on Apr 10th. Should like the turf.
FOREVER UTOPIA - Colt's last race was against tougher open company. He's in with easier 'state breds' today. Terranova brings him right back. I recommend you stick with this hot colt. The improved Equibase speed figs over the last three races is strong. Terranova drops him in this affair conditioned properly and ready to go.
KID BLAST - Carmouche rode this racer for the initial time last time out and comes right back in today's contest. Horses out of the barn of Levine have been strong on the turf. I'd expect a good performance. If you review the PP's for this horse, you'll see he has recorded the top speed rating at the distance and surface. A repeat effort right here and this horse has a superb chance to win. I just may give this one a chance. Should rebound off last race where he did run out of the money, but was within 5 lengths at the wire.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BIRCHWOOD ROAD (ML=3/1),
#5 ARCHER HILL (ML=5/1),
#16 BAMBISFROSTYRACER (ML=8/1),
BIRCHWOOD ROAD - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint races lately. Unlikely to see him doing it this time out either. Should take this one off your contenders list with the shortage of speed in that last route affair.
ARCHER HILL - Can't wager on this entrant in today's sprint of 7 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint event lately.
BAMBISFROSTYRACER - This colt hasn't had any recent accomplishments in short distance contests. Tough to wager on him in this race.
#13 CHASINTHEBLUES to win at post-time odds of 6/1 or better
Box [12,13] Box [2,13]
Belmont - Race #7 - Post: 4:26pm - Stakes - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $125,000 Class Rating: 91 Bouwerie S.
#2 THE LEWIS DINNER (ML=5/1)
#6 QUEZON (ML=5/2)
#10 TEMPER MINT PATTY (ML=10/1)
#3 HOT CITY GIRL (ML=12/1)
THE LEWIS DINNER - State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this filly's move into the 'state bred' class today should make her tough in here. When a thoroughbred finishes on the board as often as this filly does, you will usually want to use her in your exotic wagers. This filly is in exceptional condition right now. Finished second last time out and comes back promptly.
QUEZON - I look for this pony to sit chilly and make a strong move on the turn, cruising straight on to the winner's circle. Faced tougher in the last race at Aqueduct. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this animal on my list of contenders. Ranked at the very top in EPS (earnings per start). Another indicator that this animal is classy.
TEMPER MINT PATTY - I like to play horses that faced open company in their last race and drop into state bred races. This filly fits the bill. Last time this filly ran today's distance she got a speed rating that would probably win today's affair. The April 4th race at Keeneland was at a class level of (98). Dropping down in class considerably, so she should be in a good spot to take this race.
HOT CITY GIRL - Filly was in versus 'open company' on March 21st and should find this group easier to deal with. This animal didn't run well on a muddy track in her last start at Laurel Park. You may want to ignore that showing.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 LAKESIDE SUNSET (ML=7/2),
#5 DREAMBOAT ANNIE (ML=6/1),
#9 TAKE ISSUE (ML=8/1),
LAKESIDE SUNSET - Difficult to take this mount at this price after the finish (third) in the last race.
DREAMBOAT ANNIE - I'm always a little shy about a runner that has added front bandages in the last affair. Could be tough for this horse to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the questionable contenders list.
TAKE ISSUE - Will be hard for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the vulnerable contenders list.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - QUEZON - My massive database shows that fillies often improve 2nd time on Lasix. That's the case right here, so I think she should run well above average today.
Have to go with #2 THE LEWIS DINNER on the win end if we get at least 5/1 odds
Box [2,10] Box [2,3]
Belmont - Race #8 - Post: 4:57pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $125,000 Class Rating: 110 Kingston S.
#9 KHARAFA (ML=9/5)
#7 FRONT (ML=12/1)
#6 LUBASH (ML=3/1)
#3 KING KREESA (ML=5/2)
KHARAFA - This one has recorded the best recent turf Equibase speed fig at the distance and surface. This jock and handler have a great winning percent when they team up. I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this gelding's PPs. Almost always in the money. Faces state bred foes today after finishing first versus 'open' company on April 19th. That recent bullet 36.2 work shows that this gelding is ready for a top effort today.
FRONT - Based on the TrackMaster data I've reviewed, this horse should run well off the layoff. Arroyo and Jerkens partnered up are a railbird's friend. State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this horse's move into the 'state bred' class today should make him tough in here. Atop this horse on November 9th and Arroyo is back again in the irons this time.
LUBASH - Faces state bred foes today after finishing third versus 'open' company on Apr 19th. When a campaigner finishes in the money as often as this horse does, you will usually want to use him in your exotic wagers. Had a dominant closing move in the last race, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar performance today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. A little change in scenery has got to do this horse well. Reading the PPs, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle on different ovals.
KING KREESA - This should be an easier task than what he was asked last time out against 'open' company. I seem to always make money betting Donk horses on the turf. That barn has a dominant win percent for this distance/surface. Owns the highest Equibase speed fig on the turf at this distance. This gelding gets a weight break of -6 lbs from last race. This certainly could make the difference in this event. When I handicap a race on the grass, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This race horse has the highest average class in the entire field. This equine collects a lot of money per race. Tops in this race.
Vulnerable Contenders: No Vulnerable Contenders in this race,
#7 FRONT is going to be the play if we are getting 7/1 or better
Belmont - Race #9 - Post: 5:28pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $200,000 Class Rating: 98 Critical Eye S.
#10 CARAMEAWAY (ML=3/1)
#9 HOT STONES (ML=8/1)
#7 MISS DA POINT (ML=7/2)
#2 SAYTHREEHAILMARY'S (ML=6/1)
CARAMEAWAY - The rider and handler combination have a favorable return on investment when they join forces. Friedman brings her back again. I propose you stay with this strong mare. I cannot ignore the fact that this mare is working extremely well.
HOT STONES - Mare got a healthy speed figure last time she tried this trip. That number would be good enough to win today. Based on drills, I look for this mare to run a big race.
MISS DA POINT - The rider and conditioner combination have a favorable ROI when they partner up. This mare is in fine form. Ended up first on Apr 29th. Shipped in on April 29th to finish first here. Take right back again. This mare's last speed fig is strong enough to triumph here, I'll play her back again this time.
SAYTHREEHAILMARY'S - Filly emerged victorious her last race here on May 1st as a shipper. I think she looks like a winner once again. This jockey and trainer have a profitable return on investment when they team up. Filly's last race was against tougher open company. She's in with easier 'state breds' today. This filly is in first-rate condition right now. Finished first last time around the track and comes back promptly. Dropping 5 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SHERIFFA (ML=5/1),
#5 PICCOLO FLATS (ML=5/1),
SHERIFFA - A strong entrant that's been running well, but she's been off the track in the mornings of late.
PICCOLO FLATS - Doesn't look to have enough positive qualities to warrant the price.
Put your money on #9 HOT STONES on the nose if you can get odds of 6/1 or more
Belmont - Race #10 - Post: 5:59pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $46,000 Class Rating: 58
#2 DOT PRODUCT (ML=4/1)
#12 GO BABE (ML=6/1)
#3 COSMIC TALE (ML=3/1)
#15 DEVIL'S SILENT (ML=5/1)
#9 PINK FREUD LIVE (ML=7/2)
DOT PRODUCT - Maragh was aboard this filly in the last race and was impressed enough to take the equine right back. Have to make this filly a contender; she comes off a strong contest on May 3rd.
GO BABE - The Dec 6th event at Aqueduct was at a class level of (79). Dropping to a lower level drastically, so she should be in a good place. Forgive the off the board finish on the off track in the last race. Without the slop, has a chance in this race.
COSMIC TALE - This filly likes to be near the lead. Today's event is a shorter distance and should increase her chances of winning. Another way to identify class is earnings per start. This horse has the topmost in the field. I think she'll be close at the finish line. Clearly didn't like the surface of the last event as much as two starts back on the inner turf. Watch out today for a return to a sharp race.
DEVIL'S SILENT - Was in a $40,000 Maiden Claiming race at Aqueduct in the last race. That affair had a class rating of 67 and she is moving down in today's race. A certain win candidate. Look for this filly to run much better in this event. Last clash at Aqueduct finishing seventh on a muddy track is no sign of her true talent. When a thoroughbred drops at least five lbs (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but this should help.
PINK FREUD LIVE - May be extremely hard to beat this mount on the grass today. Last time around the track scored a nice turf rating, the highest of any of these animals. Trainer Weaver moves this horse to a lower class level to face a less competitive field. Look for a solid race racing against these lower level horses. Based on this filly's recent efforts, she should benefit from this contest's shorter distance. This thoroughbred has a lot of class. A good sign in a race on the grass like we have today. Look for this filly to run much better in this race. Last clash at Belmont finishing sixth on the soft turf is no indication of her true ability.
Vulnerable Contenders: #16 TWISTED CAT TAIL (ML=6/1),
#6 BACK TO ME (ML=8/1),
TWISTED CAT TAIL - Not the right 'spot' in this affair.
BACK TO ME - This filly hasn't had any recent accomplishments in short distance races. No picnic to bet on her in this event.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - PINK FREUD LIVE - Analysis shows this filly's last speed number of 66 is as good as any. Don't overlook this filly in your speculating.
Have to go with #12 GO BABE on the win end if we get at least 7/1 odds
Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.
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