Churchill Downs selections - Michael Nunamaker

Churchill Downs      Monday May 25, 2015


Race #1


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 6 BILL OF RIGHTS               3-1       73      85      0.00   
 5 WINDSURFER                   3-1       79      87      0.23   
 4 BELLACHINO                   6-1       74      79      1.60   
 3 MR. HANDSOME                 6-1       68      72      1.69   
 2 BRIGADE                      9-1       72      80      2.37   
Commentary

BILL OF RIGHTS Modest speed advantage. The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Huge class drop should help. WINDSURFER Big pace advantage. Towering and incredible back speed advantage. BELLACHINO Three consecutive good finishes. MR. HANDSOME Very impressive workouts. BRIGADE Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
Race #2


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 COLLIN'S SMILE               5-2       76      89      0.00   
 3 BRINK OF WAR                 4-1       78      90      1.06   
 1 UNBRIDLED VENTURE            9-2       71      86      1.49   
 6 RIDE THE LIGHTNING           7-1       69      85      2.24   
 5 BOURBONIZE                   8-1       64      83      2.38   
Commentary

COLLIN'S SMILE Showed surprise early speed in last. BRINK OF WAR Modest pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. UNBRIDLED VENTURE Three consecutive good finishes. RIDE THE LIGHTNING Huge class raise will be hard. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. BOURBONIZE Huge class drop should help. Four consecutive decreases in speed rating!!
Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 6 RANKHASPRIVILEGES            3-1       71      74      0.00   
 7 KING PTOLEMY                 4-1       74      78      0.61   
 8 WHISKEY SHINER               9-2       68      79      0.88   
 4 DE FACTO                     6-1       73      81      1.43   
 5 ROYAL WARRANT                10-1      69      71      2.30   
Commentary

RANKHASPRIVILEGES Modest speed advantage. KING PTOLEMY Slight pace advantage. WHISKEY SHINER Highest earnings per start at today's distance. DE FACTO Four consecutive decreases in speed rating!! ROYAL WARRANT Showed surprise early speed in last.
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 AWESOME JILL                 5-2       75      86      0.00   
 6 BOURBON WARFARE              7-2       74      76      0.64   
 2 COMFORT LEVEL                4-1       67      71      1.07   
 1 BELLA VELOCE                 7-1       74      79      2.21   
 4 IMPETUOUS YOUTH              9-1       76      83      2.57   
Commentary

AWESOME JILL Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. BOURBON WARFARE Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. COMFORT LEVEL Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. BELLA VELOCE Speed improved in last outing. IMPETUOUS YOUTH Modest pace advantage.
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 WALDO                        9-5       70      81      0.00   
 5 JOHN GORDON                  3-1       71      87      1.00   
 2 DENALI RAHY RULER            4-1       67      82      1.55   
 6 CIGARZIN                     17-1      64      74      4.31   
 1 PASSAGE OF POWER             35-1      58      76      5.51   
Commentary

WALDO Slight back speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. JOHN GORDON Modest pace advantage. Slight speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. DENALI RAHY RULER No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. CIGARZIN You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. PASSAGE OF POWER Three consecutive decreases in speed rating!
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 8 HIDDEN CANDY                 7-5       74      88      0.00   
 2 ALL THAT BRASS               7-1       57      74      3.65   
 7 ETTAMAN                      8-1       74      87      3.94   
 5 SPEEDY GUNZALIOUS            9-1       64      85      4.09   
 4 HARD PROMISES                10-1      no starts       4.51   
Commentary

HIDDEN CANDY Speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. ALL THAT BRASS Speed improved in last outing. ETTAMAN Pace advantage. SPEEDY GUNZALIOUS Back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 7 FLAT DEPOSIT                 3-1       72      80      0.00   
 9 EMMAJESTIC                   6-1       69      76      1.26   
 1 CARDINAL GIRL                7-1       77      73      1.67   
 8 KITTEN'S TOP CAT             8-1       67      57      1.86   
 4 FACTORY OF FAITH             10-1      70      83      2.40   
Commentary

FLAT DEPOSIT Best speed at this distance and surface. EMMAJESTIC Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. CARDINAL GIRL Big pace advantage. Slight speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. KITTEN'S TOP CAT Long recent workout is a good sign.
Race #8


Proficiency: Samples=1661 W%=38.8 Net=2.17 Net4+=2.84

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 I'MBETTERTHANGOOD            7-5       74      75      0.00   
 4 CALL SIGN                    5-1       71      78      2.74   
 8 LANGDARMA                    10-1      69      73      4.00   
 5 COYOTE MOON                  10-1      68      70      4.41   
 6 TALLY JAX                    16-1      71      70      5.04   
Commentary

I'MBETTERTHANGOOD Big pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. CALL SIGN Big back speed advantage. Very impressive workouts. LANGDARMA Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Three consecutive good finishes. COYOTE MOON Highest average purse value. TALLY JAX Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #9


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 ROLL TIDE ROLL               8-5       75      87      0.00   
 2 YOCKEY'S WARRIOR             7-2       76      88      1.72   
 3 ALLIDOISDREAMOFYOU           9-1       72      86      3.52   
 8 TAPIT WICKED                 11-1      69      83      4.09   
 6 OLD MEXICO                   13-1      75      92      4.32   
Commentary

ROLL TIDE ROLL Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. YOCKEY'S WARRIOR Modest speed advantage. Slight back speed advantage. Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good finishes. ALLIDOISDREAMOFYOU The long workout makes me feel good about this one. OLD MEXICO Speed improved in last outing.
Race #10


Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 7 SOUTHERN HONEY               5-2       80      94      0.00   
 9 SPRING INCLUDED              7-2       76      91      0.56   
 3 MILAM                        7-1       76      90      1.93   
10 STREET STORY                 8-1       75      89      2.15   
 1 YOU BOUGHT HER               13-1      73      83      3.13   
 4 HEYKITTYKITTYKITTY           17-1      75      89      3.57   
 8 ENCHANTING LISA              20-1      68      84      3.84   
 2 PISTOLPACKINPENNY            32-1      69      80      4.51   
 6 TONI'S HOLLYDAY              83-1      75      89      5.80   
 5 BOSS BARNEY'S BABE           90-1      70      84      5.85   
Commentary

SOUTHERN HONEY Big pace advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Huge class drop should help. SPRING INCLUDED The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. MILAM Very impressive workouts. Showed surprise early speed in last. Three consecutive good finishes. STREET STORY I like the workouts. YOU BOUGHT HER Huge class drop should help.
Race #11


Proficiency: Samples=834 W%=30.8 Net=1.97 Net4+=1.85

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 SEEKING PARADISE             4-1       73      77      0.00   
 7 SCADADLE                     6-1       70      83      0.61   
 8 ANUSARA                      7-1       70      80      1.21   
11 RAPID RHYTHM                 8-1       66      81      1.24   
 3 LATE SPRING                  8-1       66      75      1.34   
Commentary

SCADADLE Showed surprise early speed in last. ANUSARA Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. RAPID RHYTHM Slight speed advantage. LATE SPRING Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.

Best Bet of the day


Race 6 HIDDEN CANDY

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.