Evangeline Downs - Wednesday, May 25, 2016
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to hit winners at Evangeline Downs, but it isn't child's play either. By using computer technology, TrackMaster raw data and handicapping knowledge, you can make money at this game. We're going to do our best to send you home a huge winner at the end of the day. Tell them to pull up the armored truck!
Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 9 - #10 ALIVIA'S PRIDE (ML=7/2)
Today's Live Longshot: Race 5 - #5 TOUCH TIME (ML=8/1)
Evangeline Downs - Race #1 - Post: 5:50pm - SO - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 97
#1 TAKING CHARGE (ML=9/2)
#4 VALSE (ML=7/2)
#1A IDOL CAT (ML=9/2)
#7 COUGAR BAIT (ML=6/1)
TAKING CHARGE - I like when a horse has dropped in class at least five pts like this one did last time out and then runs against a similar field right back. Richards must've found the right class. Jock hops up aloft after getting to know the race horse by riding last out. That's always a good indicator. When I handicap a race on the grass, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This race horse has the highest average class in the entire bunch. Sub-par performance in the last race at Evangeline Downs was due to the off-going (he ended up sixth). I'd expect a better race in today's race under better track conditions.
VALSE - This horse has recorded the best recent turf speed fig at the distance and surface. This thoroughbred absolutely loves this track. All his wins have been here at Evangeline Downs. This gelding has run pretty well on the sod. Often that form translates to success at a track like this where the turns are sharp.
IDOL CAT - This gelding has run pretty well on the grass. Often that form translates to success at a track like this where the turns are sharp. Past performance lines show this thoroughbred with 3 improving speed figs. Nieves should be on a live one in this event.
COUGAR BAIT - Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (fifth). Should improve in this event, with some pretty decent odds. Look for this gelding to run much better today. Last race at Evangeline Downs finishing fifth on the soft turf is no sign of his true talent. Often a thoroughbred that runs well on the grass will adore a track with tight turns like Evangeline Downs. That 81 fig this gelding garnered in his last contest tells me he's a key player today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 NO RULES NOW (ML=5/2),
#2 LOUISIANA FLYBOY (ML=5/1),
#6 CAPTAIN TYREE (ML=5/1),
NO RULES NOW - Hard to back any horse with lessening speed figures of 89/85/70.
LOUISIANA FLYBOY - This runner hasn't been coming close at the finish line of late. Not probable that the speed figure he notched on May 14th will hold up in this clash.
Play #1 Entry to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
1 with [4,7]
Box [1,4,7] Total Cost: $6
[1,4,7] with [1,4,7] with [1,4,5,7,9] with [1,4,5,7,9] Total Cost: $36
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
Evangeline Downs - Race #2 - Post: 6:17pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 83
#6 CALLING PANTHER (ML=6/1)
#4 ZIPPLES (ML=3/1)
#7 KRISTINAS DAY WALK (ML=10/1)
CALLING PANTHER - Cuccia must think that this gelding will adapt to the tight turns at Evangeline Downs, perhaps because he's had success on the grass. You have to really like that most recent race speed rating, 77, which is the highest recent race speed figure of this bunch. PP lines show this thoroughbred with 3 improving speed figs. Melancon should be on a live one in this event.
ZIPPLES - The jock and trainer combination have a favorable ROI when they team up. Clark comes to race again after getting to know the gelding in the last race. He must like the track here. He just won over the track after shipping in.
KRISTINAS DAY WALK - Expect this gelding to be far back early and come flying down the lane. The jock and conditioner combination have a beneficial return on investment when they team up. I am keen on that most recent outing on May 7th at Evangeline Downs where he finished third.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PRIME POWER (ML=2/1),
#3 CAPTAIN BERTI (ML=4/1),
#1A QUIET SEDUCTION (ML=5/1),
PRIME POWER - This morning-line choice may be out of shape without any recent morning activity. The speed ratings are going downward. I'm not wagering on this entrant off of that trend.
CAPTAIN BERTI - This racer likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually win. Don't play in the top spot.
QUIET SEDUCTION - Last race out it was a nice victory, but this time the homestretch is going to be a true test of courage. When scrutinizing today's class rating, he will have to earn a better speed fig than in the last race to battle in this dirt route.
#6 CALLING PANTHER is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better
6 with [4,7]
Box [4,6,7] Total Cost: $6
Evangeline Downs - Race #3 - Post: 6:44pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 57
#5 KID CRIMSON (ML=5/1)
#1 ANDWE'LLBESWINGING (ML=6/1)
#2 LEES SOLDIER (ML=9/2)
KID CRIMSON - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this horse is up against an easier field than in the last race at Evangeline Downs. Shepherd was aboard this gelding in the last race and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. In the last race, finished seventh on a track listed as good at Evangeline Downs. Should do better right here.
ANDWE'LLBESWINGING - I like to play horses that faced open company in their last race and drop into state bred races. This gelding fits the bill. This gelding usually does his best running late. Look for him far back early in the race and finishing strongly on the tiring speed horses. Faced tougher in the last race at Evangeline Downs. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this one on my list of contenders. Have to like the way Vance has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. The 53 last race rating looks good on paper.
LEES SOLDIER - This colt faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look. I like this horse. Should be familiar with this level since he ran against the same type in the last race at Delta Downs. This noble animal is at the top of my list of contenders. His pace, along with a favorable post on this tight-track, should take him far in this one.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CORY'S GOT GAME (ML=2/1),
#8 MI PADRE (ML=4/1),
#7 JUSTIFIABLE INTENT (ML=8/1),
CORY'S GOT GAME - Run-of-the-mill speed figure in the last race at Evangeline Downs at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this questionable contender will improve too much today.
MI PADRE - Never really did much at all last out on May 13th. Hard to bet on today.
JUSTIFIABLE INTENT - In any affair of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been sharp in short distance events lately. Not probable that the fig he notched on Apr 27th will be good enough in this race.
Bet on #5 KID CRIMSON to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6
Evangeline Downs - Race #4 - Post: 7:11pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 81
#6 POWER AND GRACE (ML=8/1)
#2 WHAT A IMAGE (ML=7/2)
#7 REVENUENEUTRAL (ML=6/1)
POWER AND GRACE - Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this animal has the highest speed fig for the distance-surface. This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's affair is a shorter trip and should increase his likelihood of winning. A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a strong race is a good signal. Dropping 5 lbs from last race. Could be a deciding factor today.
WHAT A IMAGE - Clark comes to race after getting to know the colt in the last race. This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very lucrative ROI, right at +93. Average class rating is tops in this bunch. I think that is a big advantage for a race on the grass.
REVENUENEUTRAL - After the race aboard this animal on May 7th, the rider is going to be in tune with the colt much better. Based on this colt's recent efforts, he should be aided by this shorter distance.
Vulnerable Contenders: #10 SNAPPER BITE (ML=5/1),
#8 DOUBLE BARREL MAN (ML=6/1),
#5 FINE DESPERADO (ML=8/1),
SNAPPER BITE - No good results for this less than sharp equine in a short distance event over the last sixty days tells me that this gelding is in a tough circumstance
DOUBLE BARREL MAN - This gelding garnered a speed figure in his last affair which probably isn't good enough today.
FINE DESPERADO - Recent decreasing Equibase speed figures of 50/46/22 give a clue that this equine may be going off form. The Brain always tells me to keep away from horses in short distance affairs that haven't hit the board in sprint events recently.
#6 POWER AND GRACE is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
6 with [2,7]
Box [2,6,7] Total Cost: $6
[2,6,7] with [2,6,7] with [2,4,6,7,8] with [2,4,6,7,8] Total Cost: $36
Evangeline Downs - Race #5 - Post: 7:38pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,500 Class Rating: 62
#5 TOUCH TIME (ML=8/1)
#9 DELISA (ML=5/1)
#7 TEE SHAW (ML=5/1)
TOUCH TIME - Jockey jumped on this mare's back for the first time on May 11th. Should know the animal even better this race.
DELISA - I like to play this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a strong outing within the last thirty days. Have to like the way Landry has raced this filly back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today.
TEE SHAW - This filly was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think she's ready for today's event. Rode this horse on May 11th and Melancon is yet again in the irons in today's race. Likes to go to the front and the fact that today is a shorter trip should help.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 STREAMLINER (ML=4/1),
#11 LIL ELLA B. (ML=6/1),
#12 PHILLI FOUR (ML=8/1),
STREAMLINER - This horse hasn't been on the track since April 27th. Not even any morning drills.
LIL ELLA B. - Hard to put any cash on this filly on the win end. Likes to land in the top three though.
PHILLI FOUR - Showed very little in the last race. Really don't see any chance of a reversal of fortune today. If you keep betting these kind of 'hanger' types, you're going to be disappointed frequently. Don't feel this vulnerable equine will do much running today. That last speed figure was substandard when compared with today's class figure.
Put your money on #5 TOUCH TIME on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
5 with [7,9]
Box [5,7,9] Total Cost: $6
[5,7,9] with [5,7,9] with [5,7,9,10,14] with [5,7,9,10,14] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
Evangeline Downs - Race #6 - Post: 8:05pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 71
#7 FIRE ARMS (ML=6/1)
#6 GATO MOJADO (ML=4/1)
FIRE ARMS - Running over a familiar track, where she has won multiple times before, I have to put this animal at the top of my list of strong contenders.
GATO MOJADO - This mare should give a good showing of herself in today's event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #9 SLEW CITY LOU (ML=3/1),
#8 SPICY AFLEET (ML=5/1),
#2 MISS MORONETTE (ML=6/1),
SLEW CITY LOU - I'd like to see more conducive recent outings with oddsmaker's morning line of 3/1.
SPICY AFLEET - The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this thoroughbred as a questionable contender.
MISS MORONETTE - Would have to move up off that eighth place finish last time to make an impact here. Substandard speed fig in the last race at Evangeline Downs at 7 furlongs. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's race.
Have to go with #7 FIRE ARMS on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds
Evangeline Downs - Race #7 - Post: 8:32pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,500 Class Rating: 63
#13 BLACK N GOLD (ML=6/1)
#4 POPPA'S POPCORN (ML=5/1)
#5 CLASSIC LANDON (ML=8/1)
#12 UNK'S RED MAN (ML=6/1)
BLACK N GOLD - This gelding should give a strong showing of himself in today's clash.
POPPA'S POPCORN - Gelding is a few starts into a come back here. Should give a big race today. I have to like this gelding's likelihood of winning at the shorter distance. Boudreaux brings him back again. I suggest you stick with this live gelding. Only a bad break can keep this mount from having a chance. Loves the front, is breaking from the inside in a sprint race, and we're on a tight track.
CLASSIC LANDON - Gelding is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a top effort today. This gelding is in good condition, having run a strong race on May 13th, finishing third. This thoroughbred has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 18 to 47 to 51 in succession.
UNK'S RED MAN - Jock jumped on this gelding's back for the first time on May 4th. Should be acquainted with the animal even better this time. Have to like this gelding today. If you take a look at his PP lines you see a definite pattern, getting closer with each race. Look at this pattern of improvement. 28/47/60 are the last three speed figs. I like to bet on this handicapping angle, a campaigner coming back off a sharp outing within the last thirty days.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TOUGH TO THE BONE (ML=4/1),
#8 PENTAFECTA (ML=6/1),
#9 POLITICAL WAR (ML=8/1),
TOUGH TO THE BONE - This racer hasn't been on the track since Apr 30th. Not even any morning activity.
PENTAFECTA - This gelding registered a speed fig in his last clash which likely isn't good enough in today's event.
POLITICAL WAR - Going to have a difficult go of it with all of the other early speed in this event.
Bet on #13 BLACK N GOLD to win if you can get at least 9/2 odds
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
Evangeline Downs - Race #8 - Post: 8:59pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 73
#1 SAINT DOMINIC (ML=9/2)
#2 ROBERT E. LEE (ML=5/1)
#1A SAINT NO MORE (ML=9/2)
SAINT DOMINIC - Expect this gelding to be back of the pack early and come finishing best of all. I think this gelding is coming into top form. Equibase speed figs on the grass point to this thoroughbred as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance and surface.
ROBERT E. LEE - Taking a trip to a lower class rank; has the capability to make his presence felt. Great average class rating on this horse. Should have the class ability to run well on the turf. Just missed hitting the board on April 29th at Evangeline Downs. With respectable M/L odds in this race, he has my interest.
SAINT NO MORE - This gelding faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look. Ramirez drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more information to figure that this one has a good chance at this level.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 KID CREOLE (ML=3/1),
#5 LITTLE MARIO (ML=5/1),
#10 B BRAZIN (ML=6/1),
KID CREOLE - Recent deteriorating Equibase speed figs of 73/62/41 give a clue that this equine may be going off form.
LITTLE MARIO - Finished fourth last time out. Would have to move up to be in the money in today's race. Be a little shy about this three-year old versus older. Will do better with more experience.
B BRAZIN - This gelding finished out of the top three on April 7th and wasn't even close last out either. When checking today's class figure, he will have to record a much better speed fig than in the last race to compete in this turf route.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - ROBERT E. LEE - This front runner in the one hole can control the pace from the inside in this route race. On a bullring this is a huge advantage
Have to go with #1 Entry on the win end if we get at least 9/5 odds
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
Evangeline Downs - Race #9 - Post: 9:26pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 43
#10 ALIVIA'S PRIDE (ML=7/2)
#12 LA MADERA (ML=8/1)
ALIVIA'S PRIDE - This filly is in nice condition. Ended up second on May 4th. This horse wins a lot of money per start. I believe she can increase that bankroll in this event.
LA MADERA - Taking this rider/conditioner combination is a good choice. This horse's last race was out at Evangeline Downs in a race with a class rating of 77. Dropping considerably in class rating today puts her in a solid position right here. Forgive the out of the money finish on the off track last time around the track. With the benefit of a fast track, has a good chance today. Should do well in this race. Weight shift of -5 from Apr 27th race at Evangeline Downs.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MONA'S DREAM (ML=5/1),
#3 WINSOME BEAUTY (ML=6/1),
#5 SALT AND PEPPER (ML=6/1),
MONA'S DREAM - The Brain tells me to keep my distance from horses in sprint contests that haven't hit the board in sprint contests lately.
WINSOME BEAUTY - No good fortune for this pony in a short distance race over the last couple of months tells me that this filly is in a very difficult situation
SALT AND PEPPER - Extended layoff, then came back and finished eleventh. Tough to expect much better this time out.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - ALIVIA'S PRIDE - This filly's superior last speed number of 43, against these ponies, makes her the overwhelming choice.
Have to go with #10 ALIVIA'S PRIDE on the win end if we get at least 6/5 odds
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.
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