Fonner Park selections - Michael Nunamaker

Fonner Park      Sunday April 26, 2015


Race #1


Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 PAPPA LOMA                   5-2       66      82      0.00   
 2 BRONZE BULLET                3-1       66      82      0.61   
 1 BLUMIN IRISH                 7-2       59      79      0.83   
 5 I GOT THIS GUYS              8-1       64      80      2.42   
 4 BUPE BUPE TEE DO             12-1      52      70      3.48   
Commentary

PAPPA LOMA Modest speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. BRONZE BULLET Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. BLUMIN IRISH Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!! I GOT THIS GUYS Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. BUPE BUPE TEE DO Speed improved in last outing.
Race #2


Proficiency: Samples=4753 W%=34.9 Net=1.99 Net4+=2.14

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 GRANNYS PRO                  1-1       68      81      0.00   
 5 YATES' THUNDER               7-1       53      70      4.27   
 3 C O P DUNCAN                 8-1       no starts       4.76   
 4 AUNT BEV                     11-1      68      95      5.31   
 1 CATTYBANKER                  11-1      no starts       5.55   
Commentary

GRANNYS PRO Tons the best. Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. YATES' THUNDER Huge class drop should help. AUNT BEV Pace advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. CATTYBANKER Not enough workouts for a first time starter.
Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=4753 W%=34.9 Net=1.99 Net4+=2.14

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 SECOND SIGHT                 1-1       65      79      0.00   
 1 JEWELOFTHEHARBOR             4-1       69      85      3.02   
 4 FINAL ATTEMPT                10-1      no starts       5.13   
 2 TAHKODHA SLEW                11-1      no starts       5.43   
 6 DEMISCHARM                   12-1      no starts       5.68   
Commentary

SECOND SIGHT Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. JEWELOFTHEHARBOR Pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. FINAL ATTEMPT Not enough workouts for a first time starter. TAHKODHA SLEW Very impressive workouts. DEMISCHARM Not enough workouts for a first time starter.
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 OUR BLUSHING ROSE            9-5       72      93      0.00   
 5 SARAH M.                     9-2       46      101     1.92   
 6 GAMBLING LADY LUCK           7-1       72      92      2.91   
 2 HUSKER                       9-1       46      101     3.31   
 3 BOOK OF BUSINESS             9-1       68      96      3.41   
Commentary

OUR BLUSHING ROSE Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!! SARAH M. Modest speed advantage. Huge back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Bid but hung in last. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. HUSKER Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. BOOK OF BUSINESS Highest average purse value.
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 LIVE AND LEARN               3-1       61      86      0.00   
 1 HYPATIA                      7-2       61      75      0.43   
 5 STORMIN COUSINS              6-1       62      80      1.40   
 7 RUNAWAY MOLLIE               8-1       55      66      1.97   
 6 CIN CIN CITI                 10-1      55      71      2.58   
Commentary

LIVE AND LEARN Modest speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! HYPATIA Highest earnings per start at today's distance. STORMIN COUSINS Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. RUNAWAY MOLLIE Highest earnings per start. CIN CIN CITI Highest earnings per start at today's track.
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 6 CHAMPAGNE LUNCH              3-1       73      85      0.00   
 4 ALL SAID AND DONE            5-1       59      72      0.84   
 2 BEST SHOBIZ PRICE            5-1       47      97      1.08   
 1 LIVE MONEY                   7-1       67      81      1.44   
 7 LADY'S EDITION               10-1      57      75      2.18   
Commentary

CHAMPAGNE LUNCH Big pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. ALL SAID AND DONE Bid but hung in last. BEST SHOBIZ PRICE Speed improved in last outing. LIVE MONEY Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. LADY'S EDITION No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 BACKINTHEGAME                8-5       64      85      0.00   
 2 MRS MCLINTOCK                9-2       61      76      2.04   
 1 COOL COWGIRL                 7-1       61      81      2.85   
 5 MAMAMEME                     8-1       70      88      3.16   
 8 HABITUALLY GOLDEN            14-1      55      91      4.25   
Commentary

BACKINTHEGAME Modest speed advantage. MRS MCLINTOCK Speed improved in last outing. COOL COWGIRL Two moves in last race. Huge class drop should help. MAMAMEME Big pace advantage. Bid but hung in last. Looks to have an early speed advantage. HABITUALLY GOLDEN Highest earnings per start at today's track.
Race #8


Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 8 UNCLE RON                    3-1       67      81      0.00   
 5 NOWINEFORWELLSE              5-1       59      75      1.05   
10 MASS AND ENERGY              6-1       66      79      1.21   
 1 HYPERBOLIZER                 6-1       72      84      1.36   
 9 TAKINCAREOFBIZNESS           8-1       65      80      1.77   
Commentary

UNCLE RON Modest speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Bid but hung in last. MASS AND ENERGY Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! HYPERBOLIZER Modest pace advantage. TAKINCAREOFBIZNESS No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Was closer to the lead in last. Showed surprise early speed in last. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #9


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 VANITY'S SHOWCASE            2-1       72      85      0.00   
 6 JUMPIN JENNIE                9-2       70      81      1.63   
 7 CUVEE BLANC                  7-1       63      76      2.29   
 9 STELLAR PRINCESS             7-1       71      81      2.53   
 2 OUR BLACK BEAUTY             15-1      57      74      3.97   
Commentary

VANITY'S SHOWCASE Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Slight back speed advantage. JUMPIN JENNIE Speed improved in last outing. CUVEE BLANC Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. STELLAR PRINCESS Bid but hung in last. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. OUR BLACK BEAUTY Speed improved in last outing.

Best Bet of the day


Race 2 GRANNYS PRO

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.