Golden Gate - Sunday, April 26, 2015
We're all here for a day of racing at Golden Gate. Climb into your saddle and ride along side as we pilot you through the challenge of picking winners. We will be making a series of suggestions below which should give you another slant on today's action other than you might get by simply looking through the program. While we do most of the grunt work, you might have to make some revisions based on conditions at Golden Gate. Also, we don't do this all alone. Some partners will chime in with their commentary below as well and at the core, we combine our skill and the data that TrackMaster produces to make our selections. Good luck!
Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 1 - #1 CONTESSA B. (ML=5/2)
Today's Live Longshot: Race 4 - #5 BUDY'S GOLD (ML=12/1)
Golden Gate - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 89
#1 CONTESSA B. (ML=5/2)
#2 UP THE ALLEY (ML=2/1)
CONTESSA B. - This thoroughbred coming off a strong race in the last thirty days is a win candidate in my book. A winning percentage like 50 is fantastic for any jockey/trainer pair. That 89 fig this filly garnered in her last event tells me she's a major player this time out. This filly gets a weight break of -5 lbs from last race. Could make the difference right here.
UP THE ALLEY - The rider and trainer combination have a positive return on investment when they unite. I like to play this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a solid race within the last thirty days. I like this filly. Has the topmost earnings per start in here today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SHEZA EYEOPENER (ML=3/1),
#3 COMMANDRESS (ML=8/1),
#6 MISS NIKKI J (ML=8/1),
SHEZA EYEOPENER - Didn't hit the board on Feb 27th at Santa Anita. Followed it up with another less than stellar try. Could be tough for this animal to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put her on the questionable challengers list.
COMMANDRESS - This mare showed very little last time. Finished sixth in her most recent effort with a substandard speed fig. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group.
MISS NIKKI J - I can't play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the job done now and then. 8/1 is just too low of a price to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back races.
Have to go with #1 CONTESSA B. On the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds
Golden Gate - Race #2 - Post: 1:11pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 92
#2 MAJOR TRUTH (ML=3/1)
#3 FIRST STRIKE (ML=2/1)
#1 FREE TIME (ML=7/2)
MAJOR TRUTH - You always have to be on the patrol for bankroll building jockey/conditioner duos; we have an instance right here. Possibly a peak effort for this gelding today. Been getting closer and the end with each recent start. A repeat of that last effort on Mar 27th where he registered a rating of 92 looks high enough to triumph in this event.
FIRST STRIKE - When the real racing starts, this gelding should be flying down the lane. This gelding is almost always in the top three. Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier bunch than in the last race at Santa Anita. The addition of blinkers usually means that a trainer wants a thoroughbred to show more early speed or to keep his attention focused.
FREE TIME - I certainly see good things for this magnificent animal right here.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MAN FROM LAGOS (ML=9/2),
#6 HANDSOME HARVEY JR (ML=8/1),
MAN FROM LAGOS - Not easy to play any thoroughbred in a sprint event at 9/2 when he hasn't shown any positive results in sprints in the last sixty days. This thoroughbred just hasn't looked ready recently. When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, he will have to notch a much better speed rating than last race out to be competitive in this dirt sprint.
HANDSOME HARVEY JR - If you keep betting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disappointed most every time. In the last affair this horse finished sixth. Doesn't show much potential for his chances this time around.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - FIRST STRIKE - Trujillo is making good money with this horse. At the top in earnings per start.
Bet on #2 MAJOR TRUTH to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds
Box [1,2,3] Total Cost: $6
Golden Gate - Race #3 - Post: 1:44pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $37,000 Class Rating: 99
#3 INFOSEC (ML=5/2)
#4 ETERNAL FLAME (ML=9/2)
#8 CANT DO THE DANSE (ML=8/1)
#1 THE GRAY HOUND (ML=6/1)
INFOSEC - This colt faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look.
ETERNAL FLAME - This colt faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look. Looking at this colt's running lines, I see he's almost always on the board. This jockey and handler have a great winning pct when they partner up. I seem to always make money betting Sherman horses on the grass. That barn has a powerful win percent for this distance/surface.
CANT DO THE DANSE - Running over a familiar track, where he has won multiple times before, I have to put this one at the top of my list of contenders. Dropping 5 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today.
THE GRAY HOUND - Sherman has a very solid win percent in grass routes. This gelding should be in shape and ready to win. This gelding faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look. Sherman has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to beware the longer priced half. This gelding is in good condition. Finished second on Apr 5th. Ran a fast time for the last quarter on Apr 5th at Golden Gate. Anything close in this field should get the job done.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 PAZMEIFUCAN (ML=3/1),
PAZMEIFUCAN - Tough to play any thoroughbred like this that didn't finish in the money after the very long layoff and comes right back. Just can't invest in this pony. Didn't show me anything positive last time out or on June 15th.
Putting our cash on #8 CANT DO THE DANSE to win. Have to have odds of at least 8/1 or better though
Golden Gate - Race #4 - Post: 2:18pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 79
#5 BUDY'S GOLD (ML=12/1)
#4 CHUCK'S CHUCKLE (ML=10/1)
#8 CAT KING (ML=10/1)
BUDY'S GOLD - Don't often see a profitable return on investment like +35. This jock/conditioner tandem has done well together over the last twelve months. This gelding is in top form right now. Finished third last out and comes back quickly. Have to like the way Moger has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. Look at this pattern of improvement. 45/58/71 are the last three Equibase speed figures.
CHUCK'S CHUCKLE - This race sets up for this gelding. I call this the 'Lone Stalker' scenario. When the real running starts, he'll be in the 'garden' spot. Like the way this gelding's finish positions keep getting better. That's a sure sign of improving form. Morey brings him back again. I advise you stick with this hot gelding.
CAT KING - The trainer here (James) has a very good ROI with first time starters. I like the fact that this first-timer's recent works have been over this track. I know the barn is serious today. The gelding gets Lasix for the 1st time.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 FABBER (ML=8/5),
#2 MOJO STREET (ML=7/2),
FABBER - Don't think this horse will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was mediocre when compared with today's class rating.
MOJO STREET - The lack of early speed in the last one, a route event, is a bit disconcerting.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - CHUCK'S CHUCKLE - This mount has recorded gains in his speed figures over his last two contests. Don't overlook this gelding in your gambling.
#5 BUDY'S GOLD to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better
Box [4,5,8] Total Cost: $6
Golden Gate - Race #5 - Post: 2:52pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 96 Silky Sullivan S.
#3 PULMARACK (ML=3/1)
#4 RICHARD'S BOY (ML=9/5)
#5 TEMPLE KEYS (ML=8/1)
PULMARACK - Hollendorfer brings him back again. I recommend you stay with this strong colt. Speed ratings on the turf point to this horse as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance/surface. Garnered a nice turf fig on April 4th at Santa Anita. A repeat in this event, and this one has a great shot to win. Running on the grass today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch.
RICHARD'S BOY - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a good effort on Apr 4th. Last two races were sprints. Longer races have to be his best game and he should be considered a play in this route. This horse wins a lot of money per race. I believe he will add to the lifetime earnings in this event.
TEMPLE KEYS - This colt usually does his best running late. Look for him back of the pack early in the race and finishing strongly on the tiring speed horses. In the last race, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. A pretty good sign he can close well, and should be right there at the end in today's race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 GRAZEN SKY (ML=2/1),
GRAZEN SKY - If he goes off anywhere close to the morning line odds of 2/1, I'll have to pass.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - PULMARACK - When a thoroughbred has a dominance over the rest of the field in TrackMaster Power Rating, I make a bet.
Have to go with #3 PULMARACK on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds
Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6
[3,4,5] with [3,4,5] with [1,3,4,5,6] with [1,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36
Golden Gate - Race #6 - Post: 3:26pm - Starter Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 88
#4 SKY FOREVER (ML=9/5)
#2 RED HOT ROCKET (ML=5/2)
#5 VOLER LES COEURS (ML=6/1)
#6 GOTTA LOVE HER (ML=10/1)
SKY FOREVER - When Moger gives Russell 'The Muscle' Baze a leg up on any noble animal, you have to feel that with their win percentage you have at least a fighting chance. Filly failed backers as the public choice in a Starter Allowance race last time out. Was a good effort even though she finished second. The recent speed figure of 88 is the best last race figure in the group.
RED HOT ROCKET - A racer coming back this promptly after a nice contest is a good sign. Trainer, Delia, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this filly's PPs. Almost always in the money. This animal already beat the favorite last race out at Golden Gate.
VOLER LES COEURS - This horse has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 58 to 80 to 84 right in a row.
GOTTA LOVE HER - I am keen on that most recent effort on April 5th at Golden Gate where she finished third. This racer could be tough this time, especially since Sullivan rode last time out and now should be familiar with this one. Horse has improved at least 2 speed rating points in last two races. I look for that to continue in this race. Ranked numero uno in earnings per start. Another indicator that this horse is the class of the field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TWISTED GINGER (ML=5/1),
#8 STYLESKY (ML=6/1),
TWISTED GINGER - This filly registered a speed figure in her last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's event.
STYLESKY - Didn't make up any ground at all on April 5th. Hard to wager on this time around at the expected odds. Finished fourth in her most recent effort with a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch.
Have to go with #6 GOTTA LOVE HER on the win end if we get at least 9/1 odds
Golden Gate - Race #7 - Post: 4:02pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 88 Campanile S.
#7 HEAT THE ROCKS (ML=5/2)
#3 LA FIERA (ML=5/1)
#2 ASHLEY'S SASSY (ML=3/1)
#6 NIASSA (ML=7/2)
HEAT THE ROCKS - If you review the PP's for this thoroughbred, you'll see she has recorded the top speed fig at the distance and surface. A repeat effort in this race and this horse has a superb chance to win. This horse has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Gonzalez, and this one could bound home the winner.
LA FIERA - The rider and conditioner combination here have a high win percentage when they are put together. This horse is for real on the turf. TrackMaster turf rating in last race at Golden Gate was tops in this field. I like the fact that this filly's last speed rating, 84, is tops in this field. This horse broke from the outside at Golden Gate last time out, racing 1 mile, but is getting a low post position in this race, which should help her chances today. This filly is clearly on the improve with speed ratings of 79, 81, 84 last 3 out. Came home in fast time last time out. A positive sign.
ASHLEY'S SASSY - This is this filly's first try on the turf. Ran well finishing third on Apr 4th. The track was slow that day, so I think this horse will take to the turf. I like this filly a lot here. She shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. I like that latest effort on April 4th at Santa Anita where she ran third.
NIASSA - This first time turf runner is going to give these thoroughbreds a run for their money. She came in tenth in her try on a sluggish track on Apr 4th. Should like the turf. Morey has a very strong win pct in turf routes. This filly should be fit and ready to go.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PRINCESS BERTRANDO (ML=8/1),
PRINCESS BERTRANDO - Didn't hit the board on December 7th at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbre. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. Finished seventh on April 4th after the extended time off. Doubtful if there will be improvement in this affair. Could be tough for this entrant to beat this bunch off of that last fig. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the vulnerable competitors list.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ASHLEY'S SASSY - Earnings per start is one measure of class I like to check out. This racer is number one in the group and has a good shot to beat this crew.
Just doesn't look like any possible win plays in this one
Golden Gate - Race #8 - Post: 4:34pm - Starter Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 96
#5 BORNATTHETRACK (ML=7/2)
#9 WILL TRUE UP (ML=5/2)
#6 OLYMPIC JUMBLE (ML=8/1)
BORNATTHETRACK - Last race out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. That indicates to me he can close well, and should be right there at the end in today's contest.
WILL TRUE UP - A thoroughbred coming back this rapidly after a good contest is a good sign. The 99 recent race speed rating looks sound in black and white. This equine picks up a lot of cash per start. Uppermost in this affair.
OLYMPIC JUMBLE - This front runner should be aided by this contest's shorter trip. Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a strong race last time out within the last thirty days.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ROGER WAY (ML=3/1),
#8 KINGS ADVENTURE (ML=6/1),
ROGER WAY - Looked like he may have had some physical problems when he ran on April 5th. Don't think this questionable contender will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed rating was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's Equibase class figure.
KINGS ADVENTURE - He's most likely going to get cooked at the front.
Bet on #5 BORNATTHETRACK to win if we can get at least 4/1 odds
Box [5,6,9] Total Cost: $6
[5,6,9] with [5,6,9] with [4,5,6,8,9] with [4,5,6,8,9] Total Cost: $36
Golden Gate - Race #9 - Post: 5:04pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $37,000 Class Rating: 92
#6 WINK AND WISH (ML=6/1)
#9 SHE'S STELLA MARIE (ML=3/1)
#2 WILD BELLA (ML=10/1)
#5 LEXIE ARLEEN (ML=6/1)
WINK AND WISH - In this race here, this thoroughbred has clearly shown signs that she likes the grass. Her speed figs are the highest in the field for this distance/surface. Wong brings her right back. I recommend you stick with this hot mare.
SHE'S STELLA MARIE - Average Equibase class figure is tops in this group. I think that is a big edge for a grass race. This mare faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look. Just see her last speed fig, 93. That one fits well in this field.
WILD BELLA - Faces state bred foes today after finishing fifth versus 'open' company on April 4th. Always be wary of the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. 78-84-87 are last three Equibase speed figures. Improving each time out is something she should do again right here in this race.
LEXIE ARLEEN - Ran against 'open' company last race out, in with state breds today. Wright is strong in turf routes. This equine should have no alibis if she doesn't win. This filly has the top turf number in her last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here horse has a good chance. This filly is in fine condition, having run a good race on April 2nd, finishing third.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ONEDEWOMAN (ML=4/1),
#1 SHE'S FLUSH (ML=5/1),
ONEDEWOMAN - Don't think this vulnerable equine will make an impact in today's race. That last speed figure was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's Equibase class figure.
SHE'S FLUSH - This animal doesn't have a conquering state of mind. Quite often finishes near the winner.
Bet on #6 WINK AND WISH to win if we can get at least 9/2 odds
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
[6,9] with [2,5,6,9] with [2,5,6,9] with [1,2,3,5,6,9] with [1,2,3,5,6,9] Total Cost: $72
Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.
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