Golden Gate Fields - Saturday November 18, 2017
Okay. They're racing at Golden Gate Fields on a Saturday and you want to know inside and out which thoroughbreds are going to win. Okay again - We are going to help you. No guarantees though. You know, bet with your head and not over it. My associate and I have carefully analyzed the races as well as one can in advance, and below give you the best lessons we know how to dish out. You can go get the data yourself (preferably from TrackMaster) and check us out, or just use what you see below and save all of the effort. We take so many assorted variables into account, other than the stuff that happens at the last minute. So saddle up and enjoy the ride. Hopefully you will end the day with a few more greenbacks than you began it.
  • Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 1 - #5 LIL' OLY (ML=8/5)

  • Today's Live Longshot: Race 7 - #5 OUTSIDE NASHVILLE (ML=8/1)
5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden Dollar

#5 LIL' OLY (ML=8/5)
#1 SECRET PRANA (ML=8/1)
#2 TAILORED (ML=6/1)


LIL' OLY - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this pony is encountering an easier group than last time around the track at Golden Gate Fields.61-63-79 are last three Equibase speed figures. Improving each time out is something he should do again right here in this race.This gelding's last fig is good enough to prove victorious here, I'll play him right back this time.Another way to determine class is EPS (earnings per start). This horse has the highest in the field. I think he'll be close at the finish line.SECRET PRANA - Johnson drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping info to figure that this horse should run well at this level.TAILORED - Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should profit from this race's shorter trip.Taking a trip down the ladder based on class; has the ability to make his presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DUKE OF EDDIE (ML=5/2), #3 THRILLING RON (ML=7/2)

DUKE OF EDDIE - Just can't play this pony. Didn't show me anything positive last time around the track or on Feb 24th.THRILLING RON - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint races recently. Unlikely to see him doing it this time around either.This colt earned a speed figure in his last race which probably isn't good enough in today's race.

Top HatThe Brain - LIL' OLY - I've calculated a running style for this one that fits very well against this field. I believe he is the only true stalker in the race. Should be a few lengths back for the 1st part of the race, then will be finishing best of all toward the finish line.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #1 SECRET PRANA on top if we're getting at least 5/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating: Golden Dollar

#5 TWO STEPS OF GLORY (ML=2/1)
#6 SECRET AGENT GIRL (ML=7/2)
#1 RAJA'S ROSE (ML=10/1)


TWO STEPS OF GLORY - Taking a big class drop in Equibase class figure points from her October 29th race at Golden Gate Fields. Based on that valuable data, I will give this thoroughbred the edge.The ROI when Velasco and Tamayo get together is tremendous.Lower weight assigned of -7. In my opinion, a movement of five is important, so this filly falls into this category.SECRET AGENT GIRL - After the race aboard this equine on Oct 15th, the jockey is going to be acquainted with the filly much better.Tamayo has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to be wary of the longer priced half.RAJA'S ROSE - I like to play this angle, a horse coming back off a good contest within the last month or so.Don't often see a lucrative ROI like +277. This rider/conditioner duo has done well together over the last twelve months.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 PRETTY SURPRISE (ML=3/1), #4 LOVELY LIONESS (ML=4/1), #2 SANDY'S JOURNEY (ML=5/1)

PRETTY SURPRISE - Tough to go with this runner at 6 furlongs after not displaying speed at 1 mile.LOVELY LIONESS - You always think this horse has a shot to be victorious, but she comes up short regularly.SANDY'S JOURNEY - Hasn't been close at all of late.84/66/56, are the decreasing Equibase speed figures for this horse.The speed fig last out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this mount as a likely underpriced contender.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#1 RAJA'S ROSE is the play if we get odds of 7/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5] Box [1,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,5,6] with [1,5,6] with [1,3,4,5,6] with [1,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36
6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,400 Class Rating: 70

Rating: Golden Dollar

#6 D'S TWO THUMBS UP (ML=9/5)
#1 ALOHA SPIRIT (ML=5/1)
#4 DESERT SMOKE (ML=4/1)


D'S TWO THUMBS UP - Was in a $12,500 Claiming race at Golden Gate Fields last out. That affair had a class number of 83 and she is moving down right here in this race. A certain win candidate.lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone front runner facing sluggish sorts today.I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back.ALOHA SPIRIT - The jock and conditioner combination here have a high winning percentage when they join forces.The morning line odds on this filly are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Sherman. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins.This filly should be at the peak of fitness, this far into her form cycle.Looking at today's class rating, this pony is up against an easier field than in the last race at Golden Gate Fields.DESERT SMOKE - Have to give this filly a chance. Ran a sharp race last time out within the last month.atop this horse on November 4th and Terrero is yet again in the irons today.This filly notched a strong speed figure of 68 in her last affair. That speed figure should be good enough to win in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 INFORMANT (ML=3/1), #2 DIXIE SPICE (ML=7/2)

INFORMANT - Doesn't seem inspiring to me after the lack of any sort of closing talent on November 2nd.Where is the early speed? None to be found in here to set things up for this animal.DIXIE SPICE - I don't like the plain fact that front wraps were new equipment on Nov 4th.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #1 ALOHA SPIRIT to win if you can get at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,4,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None
5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating: Golden Dollar

#2 PEPPERED JO (ML=7/5)
#1 NATIVE JAYLO (ML=5/2)
#5 PERFECT FOR ME (ML=8/1)


PEPPERED JO - According to well-known handicapping veterans, the stalking-type of mount is one of the most solid bets in racing.This horse coming off a good race in the last month is a win candidate in my book.NATIVE JAYLO - I figure that this contest's shorter distance should help this filly.PERFECT FOR ME - When this rider and trainer team up you have to take a look. Gonzalez and Specht have been fantastic together.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SHYLOCK EDDIE (ML=7/2), #6 CLEAN LIVING (ML=6/1)

SHYLOCK EDDIE - Last performed on Oct 29th at Golden Gate Fields, finishing fourth. Not likely to improve off of that outing in today's event.This filly recorded a speed fig in her last race which probably isn't good enough in today's event.CLEAN LIVING - This steed hasn't been near the victor at the finish line recently.

Top HatWinston - PERFECT FOR ME - I'm making a wager on this one today. An easier group is going to make a big difference. Will be competitive today.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #5 PERFECT FOR ME to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,2,5] with [1,2,5] with [1,2,4,5,6] with [1,2,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36
8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $33,000 Class Rating: 107

Rating: Golden Dollar

#5 LADY VALEUR (IRE) (ML=6/5)
#3 DREAMARCHER (ML=3/1)
#6 CENTRAL HEAT (ML=7/2)


LADY VALEUR (IRE) - This filly has lots of ability on the turf. Could be long gone by the time they hit the top of the lane.Gonzalez and Gallagher partnered with one another are a handicapper's friend.last out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. A pretty good sign she can close well, and should be right there at the end in today's race.DREAMARCHER - This filly was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think she's ready for today's event.When I handicap a grass race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This race horse has the highest average class in the entire bunch.CENTRAL HEAT - A pony coming back this promptly after a nice effort is a good signal.Should do well right here. Weight shift of -6 from October 27th race at Golden Gate Fields.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 ALLIFORD BAY (ML=6/1), #1 MON PETITE (ML=6/1)

ALLIFORD BAY - Looked like she may have had some physical problems when she ran on October 21st.registered a most unsatisfactory fig last time around the track in an Allowance race on Oct 21st. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that figure.MON PETITE - If you keep betting these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be dissatisfied often.

Top HatThe Turf Man - LADY VALEUR (IRE) - A must consideration in your gambling today. This mount's superior average class number makes her tough to beat.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Can't see anything going off the right odds to bet to win

EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,5,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip
5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,500 Class Rating: 98

Rating: Golden Dollar

#5 TREMORS CODE (ML=5/2)
#2 SPOT N THE LINE (ML=6/1)
#8 KING'S TO YOU (ML=6/1)


TREMORS CODE - This jockey and handler are honest together. Win percentage when teamed up is hard to better.Looking at the pps on all of these ponies, this is the only one to stalk. Worth a long hard look at this horse.You have to really like that latest race speed rating, 100, which is the best most recent race speed figure of this group.SPOT N THE LINE - The jockey/trainer duet of Martinez and Rondan has a strong return on investment together.I really like that latest effort on November 4th at Golden Gate Fields where he finished first.KING'S TO YOU - After the event aboard this animal on October 27th, the rider is going to be acquainted with the gelding much better.This gelding is in nice physical condition. Finished first on October 27th.nice return on investment for this jockey and conditioner duo.Multiple wins in this horse's life, all at Golden Gate Fields. Could add another win right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 TIZ POINT (ML=9/5), #1 ROYAL ALEXEI (ML=4/1)

TIZ POINT - The Brain always cautions me to keep away from ponies in sprint affairs that haven't finished in the money in sprint races recently.I usually try to beat these types of chalk off the extended layoff.Shouldn't wager on this one as the favorite with little to offer for the risk involved.ROYAL ALEXEI - When examining today's Equibase class figure, he will have to notch a better speed rating than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt sprint.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #5 TREMORS CODE to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None
6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 110

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 OUTSIDE NASHVILLE (ML=8/1)
#10 WESTLEY (ML=7/2)
#2 STAR STUDENT (ML=8/1)
#1 QUICK AND SILVER (ML=12/1)
#6 PERCY'S BLUFF (ML=4/1)


OUTSIDE NASHVILLE - This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Hollendorfer. Better be wary of this angle.rider jumped on this gelding's back for the 1st time on Oct 29th. Should be in tune with the horse even better in this race.That recent bullet 48.2 work shows that this gelding is ready for a top race today.Jerry 'The King' Hollendorfer brings him back again. I advise you stick with this hot gelding.WESTLEY - That 114 fig this gelding recorded in his last race tells me he's a key player today.Has run good races in the first or second starts back off of a vacation.Ran a speedy time for the last quarter on April 6th at Golden Gate Fields. Anything close today should get the job done.This horse's last 3 speed figs (110, 110, 114) are equal to or higher than today's class rating. That's what I need to know.STAR STUDENT - Every now and then I take some time off, when I come back to the track I feel refreshed. I think it's the same with this gelding as he always seems to run well after a vacation.Multiple wins in this horse's life, all at Golden Gate Fields. Could add another win in this event.Just missed hitting the board on May 29th at Golden Gate Fields. With decent odds right here, he has my interest.QUICK AND SILVER - Delia has this gelding going in the right event.PERCY'S BLUFF - A pony coming back this soon after a strong outing is a good signal.This horse loves the track here at Golden Gate Fields.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 I WILL SCORE (ML=5/2), #8 MACH ONE RULES (ML=8/1)

I WILL SCORE - This colt hasn't had any recent good fortune in short distance races. Tough to play him in this affair.MACH ONE RULES - This gelding made little impact last out.Should have at least hit the board in the last 60 days in a sprint event to be worth it at short odds in a sprint.speed figs of 111/102/91 are started the wrong way.

Top HatWinston - OUTSIDE NASHVILLE - I have this filed away under my pet plays. Ranks numero uno on the TM Power Rating and is going to go off at a nice price.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 OUTSIDE NASHVILLE is the play if we get odds of 6/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5] Box [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

[2,5,10] with [1,2,5,6,10] with [1,2,5,6,10] Total Cost: $36

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[5,10] with [2,5,10] with [1,2,5,6,10] with [1,2,5,6,10] Total Cost: $24
5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $27,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 MATTER OF LUCK (ML=9/2)
#11 MACALLA (ML=5/2)
#7 BELLANZA (ML=12/1)
#4 SEA MISTRESS (ML=6/1)
#10 LADY CHROME (ML=15/1)


MATTER OF LUCK - This racer obviously likes the conditions for today's race. Has registered the highest speed figure on the grass at the dist-surf.This horse has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Queally, and this one could bound home the winner.MACALLA - I think the shorter trip will help this filly stay the trip.have to watch for this animal on the turf. Last race at Santa Anita, scored a big turf fig. Have to think she can do it again in this race.BELLANZA - Looking at this mare's running lines, I see she's almost always in the top three.When a trainer works a thoroughbred at a distance equal to or longer than today's race, the racer should be fit.I like to play this handicapping theory, a racer coming back off a nice contest within the last month or so.SEA MISTRESS - I think the shorter distance will help this filly stay the distance.This equine has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Alvarado, and this one could bound home the winner.LADY CHROME - Based on this filly's recent efforts, she should benefit from this shorter trip.Moger brings her right back. I propose you stay with this strong filly.This one has increased her speed figs in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth considering when its time to bet.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 HOT IN THE CITY (ML=3/1), #5 SPRING HEAT (ML=4/1), #9 MOTUTAPU (ML=6/1)

HOT IN THE CITY - This filly hasn't been showing me anything in the last two races.not probable for this entrant to do much running with no success lately in a sprint race.SPRING HEAT - Not a good 'fit' in this event.MOTUTAPU - Mediocre speed fig last time out at Golden Gate Fields at 6 furlongs. Don't think this racer will improve too much in today's event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #6 MATTER OF LUCK to win if you can get at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,7] Box [6,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[6,11] with [6,7,11] with [4,6,7,10,11] with [4,6,7,10,11] Total Cost: $24
5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating: Golden Dollar

#3 SWEET RIVER BAINES (ML=1/1)
#9 KENNY BENNY (ML=4/1)
#8 ROB'SPEPPEREDRIDE (ML=8/1)
#4 TWICE AS FAST (ML=8/1)


SWEET RIVER BAINES - All systems look good for this gelding. Last work, 2nd fastest of the day, shows he's fit and ready.This gelding is in nice physical condition, having run a nice race on Oct 22nd, finishing second.The 105 recent race rating looks strong in black and white.Ran a fast time for the last quarter on October 22nd at Golden Gate Fields. Anything close in this race should get the job done.KENNY BENNY - Rode this thoroughbred on October 26th and Gryder is right back in the irons in this race.This rider and conditioner have a positive ROI when they team up.All systems look good for this gelding. Last prep, 2nd fastest of the day, shows he's fit and ready.This racer coming off a nice race in the last 30 days is a solid contender in my humble opinion.he has the top earnings per race entered. Check out this horse.ROB'SPEPPEREDRIDE - Lots of positive 'vibes' joined to this horse and his stable.TWICE AS FAST - Gelding has shown some speed. This shorter distance should be better for him.It looks like Couton had to learn all about this gelding on Oct 28th when riding him for the initial time. Back aloft again today.I can't ignore the fact that this gelding is working extremely well.This pony coming off a good performance in the last month is a contender in my book.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 OUT AT EIGHT (ML=6/1)

OUT AT EIGHT - Hard to bet on at 6/1 odds after the last two outings.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Can't see anything going off the right odds to bet to win

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.

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