Turf Club Analysts
Champagne
Hawthorne - Sunday, April 26, 2015

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Cash

Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 1 - #4 BARS N' STARS (ML=5/2)

Today's Live Longshot: Race 7 - #8 CHU CHU JOHNNIE (ML=12/1)


Bar

Hawthorne - Race #1 - Post: 1:50pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 59

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 BARS N' STARS (ML=5/2)
#5 DIVINE GLOW (ML=6/1)


BARS N' STARS - I like to wager on this angle, a horse coming back off a sharp effort within the last 30 days. This mare is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprint horses that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. Ran in the last race against much better company at Hawthorne. The move down in class ranks should suit her well. Mare is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a top effort today. This mare recorded a strong fig of 58 in her last clash. That speed rating should be lofty enough to triumph in today's event. DIVINE GLOW - Faced tougher last race out at Hawthorne. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this animal on my list of contenders in this race. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 DENNIE'S DREAM (ML=3/1), #1 WHAT'S IN A NAME (ML=7/2), #3 PADDY O HEAT (ML=9/2),

DENNIE'S DREAM - Hard to bet on any animal to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the risk. WHAT'S IN A NAME - Don't believe this mount will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed figure was substandard when compared with today's Equibase class figure. PADDY O HEAT - I find it hard to invest in any entrant in a sprint race at 9/2 when she hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last sixty days. Could be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the questionable contenders list.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #4 BARS N' STARS on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #2 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: Golden Dollar

#4 SPARE ME THE DRAMA (ML=3/1)
#5 CRYPTO GULCH (ML=5/2)
#2 B L'S TSUMANI (ML=6/1)


SPARE ME THE DRAMA - This gelding is in nice condition, having run a good race on April 12th, finishing third. Finished ahead of today's favorite last out at Hawthorne. Can do the same again right here. Is ranked number one in (EPS) earnings per start. A solid try today can augment the lifetime earnings. CRYPTO GULCH - I'm optimistic this gelding will run well today. Last work was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me he's sharp right now. B L'S TSUMANI - I like the way this gelding's finish positions have gotten better with each start recently. A sign of a horse coming into top form. Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Manley enters him at a similar level today. I'd expect an improved performance. Last raced at Hawthorne carrying 5 lbs more. The lower weight assigned in this event should serve him well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 INDANAMEOFDAFATHER (ML=7/2), #6 OFFICER MCNEAL (ML=9/2), #3 COMMON SENSE (ML=6/1),

INDANAMEOFDAFATHER - When you keep scanning through the TrackMaster pps and don't see a victory recently, you have to say to yourself, 'Not worth it on this animal'. OFFICER MCNEAL - This horse hasn't shown much life in the last pair of races. Don't feel this runner will do much running in today's event. That last speed figure was substandard when compared with today's class rating. COMMON SENSE - No wins for this runner at Hawthorne.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#2 B L'S TSUMANI to win at post-time odds of 7/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,4,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[2,4,5] with [2,4,5] with [2,3,4,5,6] with [2,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #3 - Post: 2:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden Dollar

#2 DUSTEM CAROLINA (ML=8/5)
#3 MISS CLASSY GIRL (ML=3/1)


DUSTEM CAROLINA - Racing at a similar level as last race on Mar 22nd at Hawthorne. I think Scherbenske has found a good spot for her, and I like her chances right here. A repeat of that last performance on Mar 22nd where she recorded a speed rating of 74 looks good enough to triumph in this contest. MISS CLASSY GIRL - Faced tougher in the last race at Hawthorne. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of top contenders. This thoroughbred could be tough this time, especially since Lantz rode last time out and now should be acquainted with this one. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. Have to make this filly a serious competitor; she comes off a sharp contest on April 12th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 KRIS ROAD (ML=4/1), #5 MELODY LANE (ML=9/2), #6 CRAZY LU (ML=8/1),

KRIS ROAD - Couldn't make up any ground at all on April 12th. Hard to play in today's event at the expected odds. MELODY LANE - The absence of early speed in the last one, a route clash, is a bit disturbing. This less than sharp equine ran a disappointing speed rating in the last race. She shouldn't run much better and will likely lose in today's event running that figure. CRAZY LU - Hard to bet on at 8/1 odds after the last two showings. When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, she will have to notch a much better rating than last time around the track to be competitive in this dirt sprint.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #2 DUSTEM CAROLINA to win if we can get at least 8/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

2 with 3 with [1,4,5] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #4 - Post: 3:20pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,100 Class Rating: 94

Rating: Golden Dollar

#4 PRADO U (ML=3/1)
#6 WILDWOOD NAFIR (ML=5/2)
#1 MALBROS (ML=5/1)


PRADO U - Have to like this colt today. If you take a look at his PP lines you see a definite trend, getting closer with each race. The return on investment when Thornton and Matthews get together is tremendous. This colt is in top condition right now. Ended up first last time around the track and comes back soon. That 94 fig this colt notched in his last event tells me he's a major player in today's event. WILDWOOD NAFIR - After the contest aboard this horse on Apr 11th, the jockey is going to be in touch with the gelding much better. Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a sharp race last time out within the last 30 days. This gelding is at the top in earnings per race. Take a good look at this thoroughbred in the post parade. MALBROS - This magnificent animal should be motoring down the lane.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MR. PUMPERMICHAEL (ML=7/2), #2 GAELIC BREEZE (ML=9/2), #5 CHEROBEN (ML=6/1),

GAELIC BREEZE - When examining today's class figure, he will have to register a better fig than last time around the track to battle in this dirt route. CHEROBEN - Tough to keep stabbing at this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. Don't believe this steed will do much running today. That last speed rating was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - PRADO U - I'm betting that the switch to a better post is worth at least five lengths today. Should destroy these.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #1 MALBROS to win. Have to have odds of at least 6/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,4,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #5 - Post: 3:50pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,800 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden Dollar

#1 GO BONNIE GO (ML=1/1)
#2 PETTICOAT (ML=6/1)
#5 SARATOGA TRUNK (ML=5/1)


GO BONNIE GO - I took a look at this filly's finishes. She's almost always on the board. She has the top earnings per start. Take a long look at this thoroughbred. PETTICOAT - Montalvo and Livesay perform well when they join forces. It's hard to beat a +106 ROI for a jockey and handler. Have to give this magnificent animal a long hard look. In recent races, has posted the best speed ratings on the turf at this distance. SARATOGA TRUNK - As the only front running sort in the race, I expect this filly to be long gone.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 DANCING ATLANTIC (ML=8/1), #6 I HOPE ITS CHLOE (ML=8/1),

DANCING ATLANTIC - 8/1 odds isn't enough for this one when checking the most recent outings. Where is the pace? None to be found in here to set things up for this mount. I HOPE ITS CHLOE - Finished second in her most recent effort with a pedestrian speed figure. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #2 PETTICOAT on top if we're getting at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #6 - Post: 4:20pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,600 Class Rating: 55

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 LAKE SNOW (ML=4/1)
#2 A DEVIL SHE AINT (ML=3/1)
#5 HIDE A ROSE (ML=5/2)


LAKE SNOW - Looking at today's class rating, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier field than last time around the track at Hawthorne. A DEVIL SHE AINT - I think this filly is very ready right now. I like the fact that Haran brings her back to a race so quickly. Was in a $50,000 Maiden Claiming race at Hawthorne last time out. That clash had a class figure of 67 and she is moving down in today's race. A certain solid contender. Should do well in this race. Weight shift of -5 from April 17th race at Hawthorne. HIDE A ROSE - Good return on investment for this rider and trainer twosome. Have to make this filly a contender; she comes off a solid effort on Apr 8th. Ran in the last race against much better company at Hawthorne. The move to a lower class rank should suit her well. Earnings per start is something that I believe can be an important handicapping factor. This horse is ranked number 1 in this bunch. Getting a weight break of 5 lbs from last race at Hawthorne on Apr 8th. Could make the difference in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 AWAY SHE GLOWS (ML=9/2), #3 ARTIC VORTEX (ML=8/1), #1 WINDOW DRESSING (ML=8/1),

AWAY SHE GLOWS - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance contests recently. Improbable to see her doing it this time around either. This filly notched a speed rating in her last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event. ARTIC VORTEX - Pedestrian speed figure last time around the track at Hawthorne at 6 furlongs. Don't think this racer will improve too much in today's race. WINDOW DRESSING - This runner showed very liitle last time finishing third. No reason to expect any betterment today.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #7 LAKE SNOW on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

7 with [2,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #7 - Post: 4:50pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,800 Class Rating: 67

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 STAND UP GUY (ML=5/2)
#8 CHU CHU JOHNNIE (ML=12/1)


STAND UP GUY - This jockey and handler have a positive return on investment when they unite. Owns the highest speed fig on the turf at this distance. This gelding has lots of ability on the grass. Could be long gone by the time they turn for home. Getting a break of 5 pounds from last race at Tampa Bay. He should make the most of this advantage. CHU CHU JOHNNIE - Faced tougher last race out at Hawthorne. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker group, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of strong contenders.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 AWAY WESTWARD (ML=7/2), #5 VILLA BLEU (ML=5/1), #7 GREELEY'S SPECIAL (ML=8/1),

AWAY WESTWARD - The speed ratings continue to drop, 68/50/22. Not a positive sign. VILLA BLEU - Doubtful that this steed will be at his best in today's event off the long turnout. Maybe next out. Don't feel this runner will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's Equibase class figure. GREELEY'S SPECIAL - This gelding registered a speed rating in his last contest which likely isn't good enough today.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - STAND UP GUY - With the highest last speed rating of 65, this gelding looks exceptional against these ponies.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #2 STAND UP GUY on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #8 - Post: 5:20pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,100 Class Rating: 82

Rating: Golden Dollar

#3 MY MOMENT (ML=7/2)
#4 CANETTE (ML=8/1)
#8 MY ITALIAN RULE (ML=5/1)


MY MOMENT - Filly was in versus 'open company' on April 4th and should find this group easier to deal with. This filly is in nice form, having run a strong race on Apr 4th, finishing second. I like the hard fact that this filly's last fig, 82, is tops in this bunch. Trainer, Kirby, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. CANETTE - The morning line odds on this filly are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of conditioner Manley. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. This horse earns a lot of money per race. I believe she can augment that bankroll in today's race. MY ITALIAN RULE - State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this filly's move into the 'state bred' class today should make her tough in here. Taking a trip to a lower class rank; has the ability to make her presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 OH SUZANNA (ML=5/2), #2 DEPUTY WILD KATE (ML=4/1),

OH SUZANNA - This entrant hasn't been on the track since April 1st. Not even any works. DEPUTY WILD KATE - Hard to put your dough on this speedball. Too much speed in the event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #4 CANETTE to win if you can get odds of 9/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[3,4,8] with [3,4,8] with [2,3,4,5,8] with [2,3,4,5,8] Total Cost: $36

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #9 - Post: 5:50pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating: Golden Dollar

#4 ROYAL GUARDIAN (ML=5/2)
#1 DEJA L'ETOILE (ML=3/1)
#7 STAR OF CLASS (ML=6/1)
#8 WHOLEDIFFERENTGIG (ML=6/1)


ROYAL GUARDIAN - Murrill was aboard this colt last time around the track and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. A winning percent like 36 is good for any rider/conditioner tandem. I am keen on that most recent contest on April 10th at Hawthorne where he ran first. On Apr 10th this colt shipped in to finish first and looks good right back. DEJA L'ETOILE - Early speed is always important in horse racing, but the lone speed horse is always dangerous. Have to like this colt today. If you take a look at his PP lines you see a definite pattern, getting closer with every race. I am keen on that most recent race on April 12th at Hawthorne where he ran second. STAR OF CLASS - Got to appreciate a good work horse. This gelding's last morning work was second fastest of the day for the distance. Entrant didn't land in the money in last race, but did beat half the field, and made up ground in the stretch. A slight improvement and this horse should be right there at the finish line. This gelding is tops in earnings per race. Give the once over to this horse before the race. WHOLEDIFFERENTGIG - This gelding's last speed fig is lofty enough to score here, I'll invest in him back again this time. Horse has improved at least 2 speed rating points in last two races. I look for that trend to continue today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 INDIAN BEAR SOUP (ML=5/1),

INDIAN BEAR SOUP - You think this animal is going to finish first just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish on top often.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Just say 'no' to the win bets this race

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass




Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.

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