Hawthorne - Friday November 24, 2017
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to catch winners at Hawthorne, but it isn't child's play either. By using computer technology, TrackMaster data and handicapping wisdom, you can make money at this game. We're going to do our best to send you home a winner at the end of the day. Tell them to pull up the armored truck!
  • Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 6 - #11 CONQUEST GOINGGONE (ML=8/1)

  • Today's Live Longshot: Race 7 - #6 ILLUSIVE FUGITIVE (ML=10/1)
8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,700 Class Rating: 96

Rating: Golden DollarGolden Dollar

#11 SIDE POCKET (ML=3/1)
#5 DRAGUNOV (ML=30/1)
#3 HIGH ON SUGAR (ML=8/1)
#12 TIZ SAMURAI (ML=5/1)
#7 GLADTOBEHERE (ML=8/1)


SIDE POCKET - You have to bet this horse at a racing surface he likes. There's nothing like being comfortable out on the track when it's time to race.Smith must have known this gelding would run well at this track. Won his last race here on Nov 2nd and now goes for back-to-back wins.Smith brings him right back. I advise you stick with this strong gelding.This gelding's last speed rating garnered on Nov 2nd is number one in last race speed figs.DRAGUNOV - This racer could be tough this time, especially since Hernandez rode in the last race and now should be familiar with this one.Look for this colt to run lots better right here. Last event at Hawthorne finishing sixth on the soft turf is no sign of his true ability.HIGH ON SUGAR - Looking like an overlay right here at morning line odds of 8/1. Finished sixth in last race at Hawthorne but was close at the end.This horse may have too much power on the grass for the rest of the field. At the top of the lane, he could put these away.Sub-par effort in the last race at Hawthorne was due to the off-going (he finished sixth). Will do better right here without the slop.TIZ SAMURAI - This mount could be tough in today's race, especially since Santiago rode last out and now should be better acquainted with this one.You always have to be on the patrol for money making jock/trainer combos; we have one right here.This thoroughbred coming off a good try in the last 30 days is a solid contender in my opinion.GLADTOBEHERE - This gelding is in fine form, having run a nice race on November 9th, finishing first.Cruised home victorious as he wired the field just recently at Hawthorne. Quickly turning around to potentially do it again in this race.PP lines show this horse with three improving Equibase speed figures. Diego should be on a horse ready to go right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ALAZAN SHINER (ML=5/2), #4 DON'TASK DON'TTELL (ML=9/2), #8 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE (ML=5/1)

ALAZAN SHINER - When examining today's class rating, he will have to record a much better speed figure than last out to vie in this turf route.DON'TASK DON'TTELL - If he goes off close to the oddsmaker's morning line of 9/2, I'll have to pass.MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE - You figure that this horse is going to win today just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish first frequently.

Top HatHal - HIGH ON SUGAR - This noble animal has recorded gains in his speed figures over his last two contests. Don't overlook this gelding in your gambling.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #5 DRAGUNOV to win. Have to have odds of at least 8/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,5,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

[3,5,11] with [3,5,7,11,12] with [3,5,7,11,12] Total Cost: $36

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[5,11] with [3,5,11] with [3,5,7,11,12] with [3,5,7,11,12] Total Cost: $24
6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating: Golden Dollar

#2 ARCH AWAY (ML=8/5)
#5 DIVORCE (ML=6/1)


ARCH AWAY - Felix is back for another race today after getting on board this animal for the first ride on November 1st and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better.with a big class drop in class figure points from her November 1st race at Hawthorne. Based on that valuable data, I will give this horse the edge.Have to make this filly a win candidate; she comes off a solid effort on November 1st.You have to be keen on that recent race rating, 73, which is the highest latest race speed figure of this field.DIVORCE - Trainer Rodriguez moves this animal down the ladder based on class rating points to face a lower level today. Look for a nice effort with this class drop.This filly should get a perfect trip in this spot. She looks like the only 'stalker' in this clash.she has the uppermost earnings per start. Take a long look at this animal.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MISS BLUE DOT (ML=3/1), #1 PIERETTE (ML=7/2), #6 HELEN HAYES (ML=6/1)

MISS BLUE DOT - Didn't hit the board on September 23rd at Arlington. Followed it up with another lackluster outing.could be tough for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the possibly overvalued contestants list.PIERETTE - In any affair of 6 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been on the board in short distance contests recently.This horse showed very liitle last time out finishing sixth. No reason to expect a reversal of fortune in today's race.The speed fig last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this entrant as a likely underpriced equine.HELEN HAYES - Tough for anyone who saw this less than sharp equine in her last race to play her this time around.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 DIVORCE is going to be the play if we are getting 7/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None
8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 95

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#12 MENDOTA (ML=6/1)
#10 HE'S DANN GOOD (ML=8/1)
#8 AQTAAR (ML=15/1)
#5 GOLDEN DART (ML=4/1)


MENDOTA - I expect a lot from this horse. His Equibase speed figures under similar conditions are tops in this field.In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the grass. This one has the highest average class rating in the group.HE'S DANN GOOD - This gelding is at the same 1 1/16 miles distance he won at on Jul 14th, which was at a higher class level than today's event.Sanchez is reunited today with this horse after enjoying some pretty nice success riding in the past.When this jockey and conditioner join forces you have to take a look. Sanchez and Knott have been fantastic together.AQTAAR - Average class figure is tops in this field. I think that is a big advantage for a turf race.GOLDEN DART - I certainly see good things for this horse right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SOLAR FLAIR (ML=5/1), #11 CRUACHAN (ML=8/1)

SOLAR FLAIR - The fig last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this entrant as a possibly overvalued equine.CRUACHAN - Hard to put your dough on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as often as this horse does.On a downward spiraling cycle. Speed figures keep deteriorating.

Top HatWinston - AQTAAR - I always scan for the horse that is number one in earnings per start. If he meets my fundamentals I make a wager.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #12 MENDOTA on the win end if we get at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [8,10,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,800 Class Rating: 80

Rating: Golden Dollar

#7 FLASHA (ML=8/5)
#5 ROARIN MISSILE (ML=5/1)


FLASHA - Taking this jock/trainer combination is a smart move.I have to like this gelding's chances to win at the shorter trip.ROARIN MISSILE - Ran last time around the track against better company at Hawthorne. The move down the ladder based on class rating points should suit him well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 THE PEGASUS BOOK (ML=6/1), #1 BARNYARD FIDDLER (ML=6/1), #6 TWO MINUTE MAN (ML=8/1)

THE PEGASUS BOOK - The Brain always cautions me to keep away from ponies in short distance races that haven't finished in the money in short distance events recently.doubtful that the speed figure he earned on October 20th will be good enough in this race.BARNYARD FIDDLER - This gelding hasn't had any positive outcomes in short distance contests in the last couple of months.Didn't land in the money on November 9th after the very long layoff. Be doubtful of this horse this time out.This horse doesn't have a champion's character. Always finishes in the place or show spot.When looking at today's class figure, he will have to garner a better speed rating than last out to vie in this dirt sprint.TWO MINUTE MAN - This animal doesn't win here at Hawthorne. He needs a different venue to show his best.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 ROARIN MISSILE is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip
6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating: Golden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 RAKE IT UP (ML=7/2)
#2 LION LOVE (ML=15/1)
#5 PUT POSITION (ML=6/1)


RAKE IT UP - A first time starter with this handler. Rivelli wins a 28 pct of the time in these here situations.The addition of Lasix might make this equine wake up and smell the coffee right here in this race.This one's dam (Streamin Heat) has a fabulous win percentage (100 percent) with 1st timers, so I expect a lot out of this entrant.LION LOVE - This filly recorded a good rating of 36 in her last event. That speed fig should be strong enough to score today.Have to make this filly a contender; she comes off a solid effort on October 27th.Ranked number one in EPS (earnings per start). Another notice that this animal is the class of the race.PUT POSITION - This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Becker.This jockey/conditioner duo has been producing a high win percentage, right around 37.The addition of Lasix might make this animal wake up and run well in this field.This first timer has been getting primed in the morning at Hawthorne, a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 FULL COUNT (ML=3/1), #8 SUZ (ML=5/1), #3 VIOLA MARIE (ML=8/1)

FULL COUNT - Don't believe this pony has what it takes to be the victor in today's event.SUZ - Not much value on this thoroughbred at the probable odds of 5/1.VIOLA MARIE - Don't believe this racer is worth 8/1 in this affair.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#9 RAKE IT UP is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[2,5,9] with [2,5,9] with [1,2,3,5,9] with [1,2,3,5,9] Total Cost: $36
8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#11 CONQUEST GOINGGONE (ML=8/1)
#6 BUDDY BUD (ML=5/1)


CONQUEST GOINGGONE - Earnings per start (EPS) is something that I feel can be a key handicapping factor. This horse is ranked at the very top in this group.BUDDY BUD - Gelding scored his last race here on November 4th as a shipper. I think he looks like a winner once again.This gelding is in superb condition right now. Ended up first last time out and comes back quickly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 RIPPIN RANGER (ML=3/1), #3 STEALTHY TRAVELER (ML=4/1), #9 CARTIAC ROAD (ML=8/1)

RIPPIN RANGER - This favorite may be out of form without any recent morning blow outs.STEALTHY TRAVELER - I can't play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the assignment completed infrequently.CARTIAC ROAD - 77/72/61, are the lessening speed ratings for this questionable contender.I'd like to see more conducive recent efforts with morning line of 8/1.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#11 CONQUEST GOINGGONE to win at post-time odds of 2/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,200 Class Rating: 98

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 ILLUSIVE FUGITIVE (ML=10/1)
#2 NYOMAN (ML=9/5)


ILLUSIVE FUGITIVE - Don't often see a favorable ROI like +70. This jock/conditioner duo has done well together over the last year.I wouldn't worry too much about the vacation; this gelding is ready to run today.I just may give this one a chance. Should improve off last race where he did run out of the top three, but was within 5 lengths at the end.NYOMAN - I like a racer that manages to hit the board as often as this gelding. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets.I really like that latest race on Oct 27th at Hawthorne where he ran first.I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough races since the layoff and should be fit.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 OH OZ (ML=7/2), #8 BUD RO (ML=9/2), #5 WILDWOOD DEJAVU (ML=5/1)

OH OZ - If this event shapes up right, all the speed horses will force a pretty mean speed duel early. Too bad this horse is one of those front runners.BUD RO - Going to have a hard go of it with all of the other speedballs in this affair.WILDWOOD DEJAVU - He had to show me more against that weaker group in the last race on November 9th to get my support today.There's early zip, early zip, and more speed in this race. Doesn't look too promising for this equine.improbable that the fig he notched on November 9th will be good enough in this event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #6 ILLUSIVE FUGITIVE on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,400 Class Rating: 102

Rating: Golden Dollar

#7 SMOKE 'N' GLOAT (ML=5/2)
#6 INFINITE MISCHIEF (ML=2/1)
#5 BORDINI (ML=8/1)


SMOKE 'N' GLOAT - This jockey/handler duo has been producing a high winning percentage, right around 37.If this gelding gets out of the gate cleanly, he'll be tough to catch.I like this gelding a lot here. He shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently.Becker has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to be wary of the longer priced half.INFINITE MISCHIEF - A thoroughbred coming back this promptly after a sharp effort is a good sign.Becker moves this horse here to Hawthorne from Churchill Downs. Looking at the horse's PPs, he has shown the ability to win at different tracks.You have to like that most recent race speed fig, 106, which is the highest latest race speed fig of this group.BORDINI - Look for this one to go all the way to the winner's circle at some respectable odds in this event. Ran fifth in last race, but not more than 5 from the lead at the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 NO FUNNY BIZ (ML=4/1), #2 PLENTIFUL (ML=6/1), #3 DR. CLARK (ML=8/1)

NO FUNNY BIZ - This gelding garnered a speed fig in his last race which likely isn't good enough in today's race.Where is the pace? None to be found in here to set things up for this horse.PLENTIFUL - Would have to move up off that sixth place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here.Should have at least hit the board in the last couple months in a short distance clash to be any kind of value at minimal odds in a sprint.Pace makes the race and the scarcity of early speed means this sustainer will have to rally without any help.DR. CLARK - Usually I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance races in order to play him.When examining today's Equibase class figure, he will have to record a better fig than last time around the track to battle in this dirt sprint.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 BORDINI is the play if we get odds of 6/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [5,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[5,6,7] with [5,6,7] with [1,2,5,6,7] with [1,2,5,6,7] Total Cost: $36
5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 COUGAR CREEK (ML=5/1)
#2 MY FOUROONE KPLAN (ML=7/2)
#9 NADIAES IMAGE (ML=3/1)
#7 TURNED BACK TWICE (ML=20/1)


COUGAR CREEK - I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back.You should disregard that last event at Hawthorne in the slop where she finished off the board. Should do well in this event on a fast track.MY FOUROONE KPLAN - That last effort must not have been too hard on this filly for her to be able to race again so quickly.You always have to be on the watch for bankroll building jockey/conditioner combos; we have an instance right here.filly's last workout was second fastest of the day for the distance.Taking a trip to a lower class level; has the class ability to make her presence felt.NADIAES IMAGE - I like when a thoroughbred wins after shipping in from elsewhere. It shows that they really like the track here. I'll take this filly to win again.atop this entrant on November 10th and Sanjur is back again in the irons in this race.I like to bet on this handicapping angle, a pony coming back off a solid contest within the last month.I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back.TURNED BACK TWICE - Candelas drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more information to figure that this horse has a good chance at this level.mare is a few starts into a return here. Should give a big performance today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 MIRABELLE MAGIC (ML=4/1), #4 POLAR AIR (ML=8/1)

MIRABELLE MAGIC - Difficult to take this less than sharp equine at the odds after the finish (fifth) in the last race.Don't believe this entrant will do much running in today's event. That last rating was substandard when compared with today's Equibase class figure.POLAR AIR - The pace scenario just isn't too promising for this early speedster. Many other ponies would have to scratch to help her efforts.Tough to support any racer that runs as well as she did and then lays up and doesn't workout at all.

Top HatThe Brain - TURNED BACK TWICE - Some may pass on this one given her lackluster showing at Hawthorne in last race. But that was on the soft turf. Be wary of this horse today.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #6 COUGAR CREEK on the nose if you can get odds of 9/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.

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