Laurel Race Course selections - Michael Nunamaker

Laurel Race Course      Saturday February 21, 2015


Race #1


Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 INFINITYXINFINITY            5-2       63      83      0.00   
 3 WOO WOO WARRIOR              3-1       68      66      0.54   
 6 DR BOLT                      7-1       65      74      2.18   
 2 ROCKET RUMORS                8-1       61      82      2.44   
 4 I'MYOURSUGARDADDY            8-1       no starts       2.62   
Commentary

INFINITYXINFINITY Back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. WOO WOO WARRIOR Pace advantage. Speed advantage. DR BOLT No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. ROCKET RUMORS Looks to have an early speed advantage. I'MYOURSUGARDADDY Not enough workouts for a first time starter.
Race #2


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 WHOLLY HUGHES                3-1       69      83      0.00   
 2 DUNE DANCER                  7-2       73      84      0.49   
 3 REAL JUSTICE                 4-1       67      79      0.81   
 7 PURELY DUNN                  12-1      71      84      2.98   
 4 SPEEDY GETAWAY               13-1      61      72      3.20   
Commentary

WHOLLY HUGHES Highest earnings per start at today's track. DUNE DANCER Modest pace advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Showed surprise early speed in last. REAL JUSTICE Modest speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Showed surprise early speed in last. PURELY DUNN Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. SPEEDY GETAWAY Highest earnings per start at today's distance.
Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=3269 W%=33.9 Net=1.94 Net4+=1.92

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 ZILLIONS                     3-1       65      71      0.00   
 6 NATE'S DYNAMITE              3-1       63      74      0.04   
 1 SAINT OR SINNER              5-1       62      73      1.08   
 7 WE WILL                      10-1      67      65      2.26   
 2 SUNSHINE KING                11-1      66      69      2.60   
Commentary

ZILLIONS Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. NATE'S DYNAMITE Big speed advantage. SAINT OR SINNER Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. WE WILL Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. SUNSHINE KING Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 MINESCAPE                    8-5       81      78      0.00   
 3 CANAL STREET                 7-2       79      80      1.40   
 7 WRY ME                       7-1       73      78      2.70   
 1 REGAL WARRIOR                7-1       72      76      2.79   
 6 HURRICANE CREEK              16-1      71      75      4.45   
Commentary

MINESCAPE Big speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good finishes. CANAL STREET Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. WRY ME Slight back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. REGAL WARRIOR Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 DRAIN                        7-2       71      75      0.00   
 8 BROAD MOON                   4-1       76      78      0.22   
 1 ROTTINGDEAN (GB)             7-1       48      0       1.26   
 5 DON KELA                     7-1       63      63      1.33   
 6 KITTY FREDO                  7-1       71      67      1.43   
Commentary

DRAIN Slight speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. BROAD MOON Big pace advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Huge class drop should help. ROTTINGDEAN (GB) Speed improved in last outing. DON KELA Speed improved in last outing. KITTY FREDO A well worked out horse. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Three consecutive decreases in speed rating!
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 WALK OF STARS                3-1       72      81      0.00   
 3 LASAMANAMAMA                 7-2       71      71      0.28   
 1 LITTLE MISS FITZ             4-1       76      85      0.67   
 2 BONITA LUNA                  5-1       76      83      1.15   
 4 HOLLY'S IMAGE                9-1       78      88      2.24   
Commentary

WALK OF STARS Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!! LASAMANAMAMA Modest speed advantage. Slight back speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. LITTLE MISS FITZ Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! BONITA LUNA Long recent workout is a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!! HOLLY'S IMAGE Modest pace advantage. The long workout makes me feel good about this one.
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 KYLIE'S COZY KID             3-1       77      92      0.00   
10 MALIBU DEPUTY                5-1       71      87      1.17   
 9 SPECIAL CONGRATS             6-1       68      82      1.60   
 6 TEXAS TEX                    10-1      69      85      2.36   
 1 BRUSH CREEK                  15-1      64      78      3.26   
Commentary

KYLIE'S COZY KID Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. MALIBU DEPUTY Huge class drop should help. SPECIAL CONGRATS Speed improved in last outing. TEXAS TEX No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! BRUSH CREEK No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
Race #8


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 STORMALINA                   7-2       78      83      0.00   
 3 JAMMIN WITH JAMIE            7-2       72      85      0.03   
 5 MONDOR                       9-2       65      82      0.67   
 6 BLUE HEN MADNESS             8-1       63      78      1.68   
 1 CALLMEALION                  9-1       72      82      1.95   
Commentary

STORMALINA Big pace advantage. Big speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. Very impressive workouts. Huge class drop should help. JAMMIN WITH JAMIE Huge class drop should help. MONDOR Showed surprise early speed in last. BLUE HEN MADNESS Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. CALLMEALION Looks to have an early speed advantage.
Race #9


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 SEVENTY NINER                2-1       73      87      0.00   
 2 PRYCE'S POSSE                5-1       72      80      1.83   
 4 MAJESTIC NUMBER              5-1       75      89      1.84   
 6 DON'S HONOUR                 9-1       75      89      2.99   
 3 DREAM OF SCIPIO              10-1      75      74      3.11   
Commentary

SEVENTY NINER Modest speed advantage. Two moves in last race. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! PRYCE'S POSSE Slight back speed advantage. MAJESTIC NUMBER Highest earnings per start. DON'S HONOUR No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. DREAM OF SCIPIO No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Looks to have an early speed advantage.

Best Bet of the day


Race 9 SEVENTY NINER

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.