Lone Star selections - Michael Nunamaker

Lone Star      Sunday April 26, 2015


Race #1


Proficiency: Samples=1969 W%=27.8 Net=1.74 Net4+=2.14

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 PRINCE BING                  3-1       65      81      0.00   
 7 ANALOG MAN                   6-1       67      85      1.18   
12 DUSTIN E                     9-1       70      84      2.10   
 4 STAR OF ICE                  10-1      59      83      2.38   
 9 STRIKE A PRIZE               10-1      58      79      2.50   
Commentary

PRINCE BING No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! ANALOG MAN Back speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. DUSTIN E Pace advantage. Speed advantage. STAR OF ICE You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! STRIKE A PRIZE Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #2


Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 BELLA PAELLA                 5-2       77      88      0.00   
 1 COWGIRL IN LOVE              7-2       67      72      0.61   
 6 PERPLEXITY                   9-2       73      86      1.27   
 5 INFECTIOUS                   7-1       72      82      2.10   
 3 TIAWE                        11-1      66      69      3.09   
Commentary

BELLA PAELLA Highest earnings per start. COWGIRL IN LOVE Huge class drop should help. PERPLEXITY Looks to have an early speed advantage. Huge class drop should help. INFECTIOUS Huge class drop should help. TIAWE Very impressive workouts. Huge class drop should help.
Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 BERRY BE GOLD                2-1       66      74      0.00   
 7 TEA FOR TWO                  3-1       72      79      0.53   
 4 YOUAREMYCONNECTION           4-1       64      75      1.44   
 6 SPECIAL ROCKSTAR             10-1      66      74      3.37   
 3 CASH'S GAL                   15-1      66      68      3.98   
Commentary

BERRY BE GOLD Highest earnings per start. TEA FOR TWO Big pace advantage. YOUAREMYCONNECTION Speed improved in last outing. SPECIAL ROCKSTAR Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. CASH'S GAL Speed improved in last outing.
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=1969 W%=27.8 Net=1.74 Net4+=2.14

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 8 EVEN STREET                  3-1       77      91      0.00   
 9 HIYA KID                     9-2       69      80      0.83   
 1 TRICKY QUICK                 5-1       69      90      0.99   
 2 COLT SILVER BULLET           7-1       69      87      1.68   
10 JAMES AND COMPANY            10-1      62      82      2.23   
Commentary

EVEN STREET Big pace advantage. Huge class drop should help. HIYA KID Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. TRICKY QUICK Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. COLT SILVER BULLET Slight speed advantage. Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. JAMES AND COMPANY A well worked out horse.
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 1 GOLDANDSILVER                3-1       60      76      0.00   
 5 FLASHINGFORMORLUC            7-2       68      85      0.28   
 2 STAG PARTY                   9-2       61      82      0.75   
 8 PAINTED SLEW                 7-1       55      77      1.58   
 4 LITTLE KINKAID               16-1      57      74      3.26   
Commentary

GOLDANDSILVER Speed improved in last outing. FLASHINGFORMORLUC Modest pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. STAG PARTY Slight speed advantage. PAINTED SLEW No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. LITTLE KINKAID Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 6 SCONNIE NATION               7-5       67      83      0.00   
 7 JUST THE TAP                 9-2       58      72      2.57   
 2 PEANUT BUTTER                6-1       56      73      3.24   
 9 WEDDED PRINCE                10-1      54      74      4.16   
 8 WILD SIP                     12-1      61      80      4.62   
Commentary

SCONNIE NATION Big pace advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Huge class drop should help. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! JUST THE TAP Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. PEANUT BUTTER Modest speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. WEDDED PRINCE Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. WILD SIP Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=3717 W%=30.6 Net=1.97 Net4+=2.49

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 PILATUS                      3-2       70      70      0.00   
11 PREACHER PREACHER            6-1       73      75      2.83   
 2 CURLINATOR                   10-1      66      79      3.93   
 4 READY EDITION                13-1      72      69      4.46   
10 WITT'S ALLSTAR               14-1      80      81      4.50   
Commentary

PILATUS Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. PREACHER PREACHER Modest speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. CURLINATOR Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!! READY EDITION Speed improved in last outing. WITT'S ALLSTAR Big pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
Race #8


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 7 PERFECTLY AT HOME            3-1       67      67      0.00   
10 CHITAURUS                    9-2       73      75      0.81   
 6 FIERY DREAM                  7-1       75      72      1.70   
11 STAY FRIENDLY                7-1       74      78      1.88   
 2 SPANISH JAZZ                 10-1      75      90      2.47   
Commentary

PERFECTLY AT HOME Bid but hung in last. Huge class drop should help. CHITAURUS Modest speed advantage. Was closer to the lead in last. FIERY DREAM Modest back speed advantage. STAY FRIENDLY Speed improved in last outing. SPANISH JAZZ Looks to have an early speed advantage.
Race #9


Proficiency: Samples=650 W%=31.2 Net=2.25 Net4+=3.12

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 STYLO                        7-2       66      86      0.00   
 1 LAST MAN IN TOWN             7-2       62      84      0.01   
 3 BOLD GULCH                   7-1       72      87      1.42   
11 JOHN LOUIS' CHIEF            10-1      75      89      2.17   
 2 COUNTMYEXPECTATION           11-1      72      93      2.36   
Commentary

STYLO Looks to have an early speed advantage. LAST MAN IN TOWN Slight back speed advantage. Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. BOLD GULCH Modest speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. JOHN LOUIS' CHIEF Modest pace advantage. The long workout makes me feel good about this one. COUNTMYEXPECTATION Highest earnings per start.

Best Bet of the day


Race 7 PILATUS

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.