Turf Club Analysts
Champagne
Lone Star - Sunday, April 26, 2015

A day at the races is always more satisfying when you're cashing tickets. The Turf Club Analysts are going to give you some sound advice on today's card from Lone Star. We'll comment on the principal plays and advise against the vulnerable contenders.We'll even mark up some prime bets for you to make. Let's all go and make some cash!

Cash

Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 3 - #7 TEA FOR TWO (ML=4/1)

Today's Live Longshot: Race 7 - #6 EARLY RIDE (ML=20/1)


Bar

Lone Star - Race #1 - Post: 1:35pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 59

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 STAR OF ICE (ML=10/1)
#8 BOURBON BOUND (ML=12/1)


STAR OF ICE - This speedy sort should benefit from today's shorter trip. Sub-par try last time around the track at Sam Houston was due to the off-going (he ran 12th). Will do better right here on a fast track. BOURBON BOUND - I have to figure Bilbrey is making a good move here. This gelding can only benefit from the shorter distance. Was in a $32,000 Maiden Claiming race at Sam Houston in the last race. That affair had a class number of 64 and he is moving down right here. A certain contender. You should disregard that last race at Sam Houston on a sloppy track where he finished outside the top 3. Should do well in this race on a non-sloppy track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PRINCE BING (ML=3/1), #9 STRIKE A PRIZE (ML=4/1), #12 DUSTIN E (ML=9/2),

PRINCE BING - Mar 6th is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. STRIKE A PRIZE - Really had to show me more than that last race out. Never made much of an impact. DUSTIN E - Doubtful for this entrant to make an impact with no recent success in a sprint event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #4 STAR OF ICE to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

Bar

Lone Star - Race #2 - Post: 2:03pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: Golden Dollar

#2 BELLA PAELLA (ML=7/5)
#6 PERPLEXITY (ML=4/1)
#4 ONEMOREFASTDANCE (ML=15/1)


BELLA PAELLA - You always have to be on the prowl for bankroll building jockey/conditioner teams; we have it right here. The rest of the field may trail this horse all the way around the track. Another way to evaluate class is earnings per race. This entrant has the top in the group. I think she'll be close at the finish line. PERPLEXITY - Calhoun brings her back again. I advise you stick with this hot filly. A winning percent like 30 is terrific for any jockey/conditioner duet. I believe this animal isn't a natural sprinter. Routing is her best game and those last two sprints should have her set for a big run today. ONEMOREFASTDANCE - This jock and trainer's equines have been generating a beneficial ROI. Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is encountering an easier field than in the last race at Sam Houston. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where she finished in her last race (fourth). Should improve in this field, with some pretty good odds.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 INFECTIOUS (ML=9/2), #1 COWGIRL IN LOVE (ML=5/1), #3 TIAWE (ML=8/1),

INFECTIOUS - This filly didn't race too well last time. Tough for this closer animal to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone front speed is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done. COWGIRL IN LOVE - This mount just hasn't looked sharp recently. TIAWE - I'd like to see more hospitable recent outings with oddsmaker's morning line of 8/1.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #4 ONEMOREFASTDANCE on top if we're getting at least 7/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

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Lone Star - Race #3 - Post: 2:31pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 63

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 TEA FOR TWO (ML=4/1)


TEA FOR TWO - I like to see fast works. This filly's last one was very good. Second fastest of the day. Stalking speed. My cronies and I like this animal. The April 10th race at Lone Star was at a class level of (71). Dropping down the ladder based on class significantly, so she should be in a good place.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BERRY BE GOLD (ML=9/5), #4 YOUAREMYCONNECTION (ML=3/1), #6 SPECIAL ROCKSTAR (ML=5/1),

BERRY BE GOLD - Should probably pass on this young horse, she hasn't had enough experience to win this kind of event. I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Extended layoff and no drop in level of competition. The rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this horse as a vulnerable contender. YOUAREMYCONNECTION - Not the proper 'fit' in this race. SPECIAL ROCKSTAR - Hard to play this filly today since the race isn't limited to three year olds.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - TEA FOR TWO - If I can get anything close to the morning line odds on this one I'm betting. Wasn't too far from the winner last time around the track.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #7 TEA FOR TWO on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

Bar

Lone Star - Race #4 - Post: 2:59pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 63

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 EVEN STREET (ML=5/2)
#9 HIYA KID (ML=15/1)


EVEN STREET - Based on this colt's recent efforts, he should benefit from this shorter distance. This colt is in good physical condition, having run a good race on Mar 28th, finishing third. Don't often see a positive ROI like +46. This rider/conditioner duo has done well together over the last twelve months. Taking a trip to a lower class level; has the form to make his presence felt. This colt is in the top spot in earnings per race. Give the once over to this animal before the race. HIYA KID - May be extremely hard to beat this horse on the grass today. In the last race scored a nice turf rating, the highest of any of these animals.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 COLT SILVER BULLET (ML=3/1), #10 JAMES AND COMPANY (ML=4/1), #1 TRICKY QUICK (ML=6/1),

COLT SILVER BULLET - No value in playing this vulnerable equine. Probably won't improve off that April 9th contest. JAMES AND COMPANY - In any event of 5 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been looking good in short distance contests of late. This questionable contender ran a pedestrian speed figure last time out. He shouldn't improve and will likely lose in today's race running that rating. TRICKY QUICK - Last ran on November 25th at Zia Park, finishing fourth. Not likely to move up off of that outing today. Doubtful that the speed figure he recorded on Nov 25th will be enough in this affair.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - EVEN STREET - This racer, posting the top average class figure, figures to give these thoroughbreds a run for their money.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #8 EVEN STREET to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [8,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

Bar

Lone Star - Race #5 - Post: 3:27pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,500 Class Rating: 80

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 LITTLE KINKAID (ML=8/1)
#8 PAINTED SLEW (ML=7/2)


LITTLE KINKAID - This gelding faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look. You probably should discount that last race at Retama Park in the slop where he finished out of the top three. Should do well in this event without the off-track conditions. This gelding might as well call Lone Star home. Don't overlook how he races well over this track. PAINTED SLEW - Gelding was in versus 'open company' on Mar 6th and should find this group easier to deal with. This gelding's last speed figure recorded on March 6th is utmost in last race speed figures. Three consecutive improved speed figures (57-62-72) make this animal a solid contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 GOLDANDSILVER (ML=5/2), #5 FLASHINGFORMORLUC (ML=3/1), #2 STAG PARTY (ML=8/1),

GOLDANDSILVER - Doubtful that the speed fig he notched on April 11th will be enough in this clash. Hard to recommend this one out of the number one post. Hasn't run well out of there. FLASHINGFORMORLUC - I cannot play this continual non-winner. Gets the task finished now and then. STAG PARTY - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint affairs of late. Doubtful to see him doing it today either. He showed not much at all in the last contest. Finished fifth in his most recent race with a disappointing speed figure. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #4 LITTLE KINKAID to win if you can get odds of 9/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Lone Star - Race #6 - Post: 3:55pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 68

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 PEANUT BUTTER (ML=7/2)
#7 JUST THE TAP (ML=3/1)
#8 WILD SIP (ML=6/1)


PEANUT BUTTER - Didn't win as the favorite in his last start. Ran well considering the speed rating notched was good enough to make him one of the contenders in today's contest. This campaigner coming off a nice performance in the last month or so is a solid contender in my humble opinion. The 70 last race speed rating looks good on paper. Jacks enters this horse in a spot where he should fit well based on his last 2 speed ratings. JUST THE TAP - I think this gelding is coming into top form. Mora rode this racer for the first time last time around the track and comes right back this time. Trainer Asmussen moves this horse down in the class scale to face a lower rated field. Look for a strong effort given this drop. The addition of blinks usually means that a trainer wants a pony to show more zip or to keep his attention focused. WILD SIP - This horse earns a lot of cash per start. I believe he can increase the lifetime bankroll in this event. This horse has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 40 to 66 to 68 in succession.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SCONNIE NATION (ML=5/2), #9 WEDDED PRINCE (ML=8/1),

SCONNIE NATION - This horse will probably be pulling up the rear as this field crosses the finish line. WEDDED PRINCE - This gelding won last time, but probably won't flaunt it today versus tougher competition.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #2 PEANUT BUTTER on top if we're getting at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,7,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

Bar

Lone Star - Race #7 - Post: 4:23pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 EARLY RIDE (ML=20/1)
#4 READY EDITION (ML=15/1)


EARLY RIDE - READY EDITION - Asmussen has a very strong win percent in turf routes. This gelding should be in shape and ready to win. Have to give this gelding a fair chance. Ran a sharp race last out within the last 30 days. The outside post position didn't help this horse's chances last out at Fair Grounds. Today's inside post should be just fine.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 PILATUS (ML=2/1), #11 PREACHER PREACHER (ML=3/1), #2 CURLINATOR (ML=6/1),

PILATUS - No pace in this bunch to help set-up his late rally. This gelding hasn't been getting the job done as the public's choice. PREACHER PREACHER - I cannot play this continual non-winner. Gets the task done now and then. No pace in this field to help set-up his late kick. CURLINATOR - Registered a most unsatisfactory speed fig last out in an Allowance race on April 11th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig. A 'bounce' is likely to happen for this horse in today's event. May rebound next time.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #6 EARLY RIDE on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

Bar

Lone Star - Race #8 - Post: 4:51pm - SO - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating: Golden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 FIERY DREAM (ML=10/1)
#7 PERFECTLY AT HOME (ML=9/2)
#10 CHITAURUS (ML=2/1)
#11 STAY FRIENDLY (ML=12/1)


FIERY DREAM - This jockey and trainer have a beneficial return on investment when they combine forces. PERFECTLY AT HOME - A horse coming back this rapidly after a good effort is a good signal. When this jock and trainer partner up you have to take a look. McMahon and Broberg have been great together. CHITAURUS - Won his last after shipping in. I like him again. The 87 recent race figure looks sound on paper. STAY FRIENDLY - A horse coming back this soon after a sharp outing is a good omen. Berry and Stuart getting together are a railbird's friend.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 SPECIAL TREE (ML=4/1), #9 TOO MUCH DUCK (ML=8/1),

SPECIAL TREE - Should be difficult for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list. TOO MUCH DUCK - Hard to keep stabbing at this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #6 FIERY DREAM on top if we're getting at least 6/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,7] Box [6,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

Bar

Lone Star - Race #9 - Post: 5:19pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 STYLO (ML=4/1)
#2 COUNTMYEXPECTATION (ML=9/2)


STYLO - Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a solid race last time around the track within the last thirty days. Jockey hops up on after getting to know the thoroughbred by riding in the last race. That's always a good thing. Gelding is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a good performance today. COUNTMYEXPECTATION - Faced tougher in the last race at Retama Park. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this horse on my list of strong contenders. Likes to go to the front end and the fact that today is a shorter distance should help. This horse is tops in earnings per start. He looks strong in today's affair.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BOLD GULCH (ML=7/2), #1 LAST MAN IN TOWN (ML=6/1), #9 PEYTON'S PISTOL (ML=8/1),

BOLD GULCH - This favorite ran on Mar 7th and hasn't had a workout since. The Brain always warns me to stay away from horses in short distance contests that haven't hit the board in sprint events lately. LAST MAN IN TOWN - Difficult to play any horse to turn things around if there is no wager value to taking the chance. PEYTON'S PISTOL - Didn't finish in the money on November 29th at Retama Park. Followed it up with another less than stellar try.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - STYLO - Analysis shows this gelding's last speed number of 69 is as good as any. Don't overlook this gelding in your wagering.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #5 STYLO to win if you can get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass




Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.

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