Lone Star selections - Michael Nunamaker

Lone Star      Monday May 25, 2015


Race #1


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 CAMP POINT                   2-1       65      85      0.00   
 6 SCORPIAN JACK                7-2       68      90      1.01   
 4 TYLER BIGO                   5-1       67      87      1.96   
 3 HOT WATER FLYER              9-1       61      87      3.14   
 1 LETS SUPPOZE                 10-1      57      69      3.41   
Commentary

CAMP POINT Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. SCORPIAN JACK Slight pace advantage. Big back speed advantage. TYLER BIGO Highest average purse value. LETS SUPPOZE Speed improved in last outing.
Race #2


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 6 TONTO M                      3-1       63      85      0.00   
 1 ANALOG MAN                   4-1       60      85      0.63   
 9 ELDON'S HOME                 6-1       65      83      1.49   
 8 WILD SIP                     7-1       67      77      1.80   
 7 JOHN LOUIS' CHIEF            9-1       76      88      2.21   
Commentary

TONTO M No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. ANALOG MAN No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Was closer to the lead in last. ELDON'S HOME Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. WILD SIP Highest earnings per start lifetime. JOHN LOUIS' CHIEF Huge pace advantage. Slight speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 7 GET IN DA HOUSE              6-5       71      89      0.00   
 2 LINCOLN LAW                  5-2       69      91      1.37   
 1 AMEROCKO                     10-1      68      85      4.60   
 6 DIXIELAND PARADE             18-1      57      77      5.44   
 4 TAP THE GOLD                 20-1      64      84      5.68   
Commentary

GET IN DA HOUSE Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Two moves in last race. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. LINCOLN LAW Showed surprise early speed in last. AMEROCKO Speed improved in last outing. DIXIELAND PARADE Highest earnings per start at today's track. TAP THE GOLD Slight back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 PERIHELION                   2-1       73      74      0.00   
 8 YESSUM BOSS                  6-1       72      74      2.36   
 3 MARGARITA ON ROCKS           9-1       65      71      2.86   
 1 RUNAWAY BAY                  9-1       72      73      3.06   
 9 POTENTE RIVALE               12-1      68      73      3.58   
Commentary

PERIHELION Slight pace advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Huge class drop should help. YESSUM BOSS Speed improved in last outing. MARGARITA ON ROCKS Speed improved in last outing. RUNAWAY BAY Big speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Showed surprise early speed in last. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. POTENTE RIVALE Three consecutive decreases in speed rating!
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 SPRING VALLEY JET            4-5       67      82      0.00   
 7 THRIFT SHOP                  4-1       69      78      3.77   
 8 EARLY ESOTERIC               7-1       66      83      5.01   
 4 CHOD'S BABY SLEW             18-1      67      82      6.84   
 5 IT'S NOT POSSIBLE            33-1      49      73      7.81   
Commentary

SPRING VALLEY JET Looks to have an early speed advantage. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! THRIFT SHOP Modest pace advantage. Big speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! EARLY ESOTERIC Long recent workout is a good sign. CHOD'S BABY SLEW Highest earnings per start at today's distance. IT'S NOT POSSIBLE Highest earnings per start at today's track.
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=4753 W%=34.9 Net=1.99 Net4+=2.14

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 TOUCHOFJONES                 2-1       70      89      0.00   
 8 NEX HAL COMIN                9-2       68      87      1.57   
 6 HYDE AND GO                  9-2       69      86      1.74   
 7 PRINCEOFFIVESIDES            9-1       71      89      3.14   
 3 IN A STRAIT LINE             14-1      no starts       4.07   
Commentary

TOUCHOFJONES Speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. NEX HAL COMIN Back speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. HYDE AND GO No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Showed surprise early speed in last. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. PRINCEOFFIVESIDES Pace advantage. The long workout makes me feel good about this one. IN A STRAIT LINE The long workout makes me feel good about this one.
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 BUCKING THUNDER              3-1       79      85      0.00   
 6 DEVON'S IRON GIANT           7-2       72      77      0.56   
 5 HOOCHED EXPRESS              4-1       70      70      0.77   
11 PROSPECT KNIGHT              9-1       74      80      2.20   
 9 MISTER BERNSTEIN             9-1       69      70      2.44   
Commentary

BUCKING THUNDER Big pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. DEVON'S IRON GIANT No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. HOOCHED EXPRESS Was closer to the lead in last. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Showed surprise early speed in last. PROSPECT KNIGHT Slight back speed advantage. MISTER BERNSTEIN Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #8


Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 WITT'S TAX DAY               5-2       76      85      0.00   
 1 HIDDEN DANGER                3-1       74      82      0.23   
 4 POINT PIPER                  5-1       68      75      1.50   
 3 ROYAL MILE                   9-1       67      75      2.55   
 7 NUBLADO BLING                23-1      76      83      4.10   
Commentary

WITT'S TAX DAY Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class drop should help. HIDDEN DANGER Speed improved in last outing. POINT PIPER Slight speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. ROYAL MILE Speed improved in last outing. NUBLADO BLING Looks to have an early speed advantage. Huge class drop should help.
Race #9


Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 6 CARVE                        3-2       85      84      0.00   
 5 TAPITURE                     3-2       85      82      0.19   
 4 TEXAS AIR                    9-1       79      83      3.58   
 2 MAJESTIC CITY                22-1      82      88      5.22   
 1 ENDURANCE                    60-1      78      80      6.72   
 3 CY SEVEN                     84-1      83      90      7.23   
Commentary

CARVE Modest speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Huge class drop should help. TAPITURE Slight pace advantage. Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Huge class drop should help. TEXAS AIR Highest earnings per start at today's track. MAJESTIC CITY Huge class raise will be hard. ENDURANCE No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #10


Proficiency: Samples=1142 W%=31.8 Net=2.01 Net4+=2.70

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
13 KEEP GUESSING                3-1       65      73      0.00   
11 FLYTAP                       5-1       68      74      1.12   
 2 MAD RULER                    8-1       66      76      2.00   
 1 CHURNER                      10-1      74      86      2.64   
 4 D'ROD                        11-1      69      80      2.88   
Commentary

KEEP GUESSING Three consecutive good finishes. FLYTAP Big speed advantage. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating! MAD RULER Speed improved in last outing. CHURNER Slight pace advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Looks to have an early speed advantage. D'ROD Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.

Best Bet of the day


Race 5 SPRING VALLEY JET

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.