Turf Club Analysts
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Lone Star - Monday, May 25, 2015

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to choose winners at Lone Star, but it isn't child's play either. By using computer technology, TrackMaster data and handicapping know-how, you can make money at this game. We're going to do our best to send you home a big winner at the end of the day. Tell them to pull up the armored truck!

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Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 4 - #2 PERIHELION (ML=8/5)

Today's Live Longshot: Race 2 - #7 JOHN LOUIS' CHIEF (ML=12/1)


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Lone Star - Race #1 - Post: 1:35pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden Dollar

#6 SCORPIAN JACK (ML=5/2)
#2 CAMP POINT (ML=2/1)
#4 TYLER BIGO (ML=3/1)


SCORPIAN JACK - The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Broberg. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. I like to play horses that faced open company in their last race and drop into state bred races. This gelding fits the bill. Broberg brings him right back. I advocate you stay with this hot gelding. CAMP POINT - McMahon comes to ride after getting to know the gelding in the last race. Nice win percent this jockey and conditioner duet have been putting together. I like when a horse wins after shipping in from elsewhere. It shows that they really like the track here. I'll take this gelding to win again. TYLER BIGO - Faces state bred foes today after finishing sixth versus 'open' company on May 15th. Dropping in class rating points from his May 15th race at Lone Star. Based on that data, I will give this horse the advantage. Last time around the track, finished sixth on a track listed as good at Lone Star. Should do better right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 HOT WATER FLYER (ML=4/1), #1 LETS SUPPOZE (ML=6/1),

HOT WATER FLYER - Tough for anyone who saw this mount in his last event to wager on him in today's event. Notched a disappointing speed figure last time around the track in a $7,500 Claiming race on May 8th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that number. LETS SUPPOZE - Just can't play this steed. Didn't show me anything last time around the track or on May 2nd.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Save the win bets for another race

EXACTA WAGERS:

None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6

Bar

Lone Star - Race #2 - Post: 2:03pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 68

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 JOHN LOUIS' CHIEF (ML=12/1)
#1 ANALOG MAN (ML=5/2)


JOHN LOUIS' CHIEF - Look for this colt to show lots better in today's race. Last affair at Lone Star finishing seventh on the soft turf is no sign of his true ability. Bryant drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more from the horse's history to believe this one has a darn good chance at this level. This colt earned a nice figure of 64 in his last event. That speed rating should be high enough to prove victorious this time. ANALOG MAN - McMahon and Broberg perform well when they partner up. Tough to top a win percent of 39. I like to wager on this angle, a pony coming back off a sharp effort within the last month or so. Have to like the way Broberg has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 ELDON'S HOME (ML=3/1), #6 TONTO M (ML=7/2), #8 WILD SIP (ML=6/1),

ELDON'S HOME - The Brain always cautions me to keep away from thoroughbreds in sprint races that haven't hit the board in short distance affairs lately. The rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this thoroughbred as a vulnerable competitor. TONTO M - This thoroughbred likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually win. Don't put in the top spot. Finished third in his most recent effort with a most unsatisfactory rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this group. WILD SIP - Today's affair is 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event in the last couple months. Not the greatest of signs. This horse hasn't shown much in the last couple contests. You believe this horse is going to be victorious just because he's always close. Just doesn't get the job done often. Don't believe this steed will do much running in today's event. That last speed rating was quite unimpressive when compared with today's Equibase class figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #7 JOHN LOUIS' CHIEF to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

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Lone Star - Race #3 - Post: 2:31pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating: Golden Dollar

#7 GET IN DA HOUSE (ML=8/5)
#2 LINCOLN LAW (ML=2/1)
#4 TAP THE GOLD (ML=8/1)


GET IN DA HOUSE - A win percentage like 39 is fantastic for any jockey/conditioner tandem. This gelding was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think he's ready for today's event. Broberg brings him right back. I recommend you stay with this strong gelding. This gelding is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprint horses that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should perform well today. LINCOLN LAW - Looking at this horse's running lines, I see he's almost always in the top three. Nice return on investment for this jock and conditioner tandem. This horse should be in tip-top shape, this far into his form cycle. I really like that latest effort on May 16th at Lone Star where he ran second. TAP THE GOLD - It looks like Sigala had to learn about this gelding on March 2nd when riding him for the initial time. Back on again today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DIXIELAND PARADE (ML=5/1), #1 AMEROCKO (ML=6/1),

DIXIELAND PARADE - Doubtful that this steed can win this sprint after displaying no early speed in that last route contest. AMEROCKO - When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to earn a better speed fig than last race out to compete in this dirt sprint.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #4 TAP THE GOLD to win if you can get odds of 8/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,4,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

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Lone Star - Race #4 - Post: 2:59pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: Golden Dollar

#2 PERIHELION (ML=8/5)
#6 IMYOURKRYPTONITE (ML=10/1)


PERIHELION - The racer with the top average class rating in turf events is usually a solid play. This thoroughbred fits the bill. In this race here, this horse has registered the highest Equibase speed figure at the distance, so I have to give him the edge. This equine wins a lot of dough per race. Number one in this event. IMYOURKRYPTONITE - Trainer Elmegreen moves this horse down the ladder based on class to face a weaker class today. Look for a strong effort at this level. This thoroughbred ran outside the top 3 at Sam Houston in the last race on a sloppy track. He should improve right here in this race on a fast track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 YESSUM BOSS (ML=5/2), #3 MARGARITA ON ROCKS (ML=5/1), #9 POTENTE RIVALE (ML=6/1),

YESSUM BOSS - You think this horse is going to finish first just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish first often. Improbable that the speed rating he notched on May 10th will hold up in this clash. MARGARITA ON ROCKS - If you keep selecting these sort of 'hanger' types, you're going to be let down often. POTENTE RIVALE - Don't feel this less than sharp equine will make an impact in today's event. That last speed fig was quite unimpressive when compared with today's class rating.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - PERIHELION - Second race back this steed had a speed number of 86 on the turf. Forget this gelding's last race, he is prime for a big race today.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#2 PERIHELION is the play if we get odds of 8/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

2 with 6 with [4,5,9] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

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Lone Star - Race #5 - Post: 3:27pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 59

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 EARLY ESOTERIC (ML=10/1)
#4 CHOD'S BABY SLEW (ML=12/1)
#2 SPRING VALLEY JET (ML=6/5)
#7 THRIFT SHOP (ML=8/5)


EARLY ESOTERIC - My expertise says this is the lone presser in the race. I usually like playing sprint horses who are 3-4 races into a come back. CHOD'S BABY SLEW - State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this gelding's move into the 'state bred' class today should make him tough in here. Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the initial time on May 9th. Should be acquainted with the horse even better in today's contest. Trainer, Dunaway, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. SPRING VALLEY JET - Broberg brings him back again. I recommend you stay with this hot gelding. Good win pct this rider and conditioner tandem have been putting together. Although I sometimes have doubts about a thoroughbred who was a beaten favorite in his last race, this gelding got a solid rating and fits well here. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough races since the vacation and should be fit. THRIFT SHOP - Comes out of a last affair against 'open' company on May 2nd and faces what I believe are easier 'state breds' today. PP data show this thoroughbred with three improving speed figures. Chacaltana should be on a live one in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: No Vulnerable Contenders in this race,



Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - THRIFT SHOP - I look forward to wagering on big class droppers like this one. Much easier group in this one.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#8 EARLY ESOTERIC is the play if we get odds of 7/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

8 with [2,4,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

8 with [2,4,7] with [2,4,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

8 with [2,4,7] with [2,4,7] with [2,4,7] Total Cost: $6

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Lone Star - Race #6 - Post: 3:55pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating: Golden Dollar

#8 NEX HAL COMIN (ML=9/5)
#5 TOUCHOFJONES (ML=7/2)
#6 HYDE AND GO (ML=3/1)
#7 PRINCEOFFIVESIDES (ML=9/2)


NEX HAL COMIN - Hamilton and Stuart perform well when they are put together. It's hard to beat a +357 return on investment for a jockey and handler. Quite frequently, I play a maiden that finished 2nd easily ahead of the 3rd place finisher in his last race. I predict a perfect trip. Stalk the early speed, and make a 'slingshot' move on the turn. I am keen on that most recent contest on April 25th at Lone Star where he ended up second. Horse has improved at least two Equibase speed fig points in last two races. I look for that to continue right here. This gelding earned a nice figure of 70 in his last event. That speed figure should be high enough to triumph in today's event. TOUCHOFJONES - Gelding has shown some pace. This shorter trip should be better for him. HYDE AND GO - I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough efforts since the vacation and should be fit. I like this gelding. Has the topmost EPS (earnings per start) in here today. PRINCEOFFIVESIDES - I think the shorter trip will help this gelding stay the distance. Atop this thoroughbred on May 3rd and Valdezjiminez is yet again in the irons in this race. This gelding made his bow on May 3rd and ran well to finish third at big odds. I'm looking for another big effort from him today. Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a solid race on May 3rd.

Vulnerable Contenders: No Vulnerable Contenders in this race,





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Not really a race for win bets

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

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Lone Star - Race #7 - Post: 4:23pm - SO - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 MISTER BERNSTEIN (ML=5/1)
#5 HOOCHED EXPRESS (ML=9/2)


MISTER BERNSTEIN - Broberg has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to watch out for the longer priced half. The jock and handler combination here have a high winning percentage when they join forces. Had a dominant closing move last time out, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar race today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. HOOCHED EXPRESS - This horse is in good physical condition. Finished first on May 8th. Won his last after shipping in. I like him again. Running on the grass today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 PROSPECT KNIGHT (ML=7/5), #4 BUCKING THUNDER (ML=8/5), #6 DEVON'S IRON GIANT (ML=3/1),

PROSPECT KNIGHT - Don't think that this gelding has value at 7/5 in today's event. BUCKING THUNDER - Almost certainly won't make much of a mark today. DEVON'S IRON GIANT - I cannot play this habitual non-winner. Gets the job executed now and then.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#9 MISTER BERNSTEIN to win at post-time odds of 2/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

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Lone Star - Race #8 - Post: 4:51pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating: Golden Dollar

#2 WITT'S TAX DAY (ML=3/1)
#4 POINT PIPER (ML=7/2)
#1 HIDDEN DANGER (ML=5/2)
#9 EVEN ECHO (ML=10/1)


WITT'S TAX DAY - When Arellano and Barton join forces on animals the return on investment has been fantastic at +149. Ran last time around the track against much better company at Lone Star. The move to a lower class rank should suit him well. This gelding is in nice physical condition, having run a good race on May 9th, finishing second. POINT PIPER - I like to bet on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a good race within the last month. I like the case that this horse's last speed figure, 86, is tops in this field. HIDDEN DANGER - McMahon was aboard this gelding last time out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Gelding finished first his last race here on May 15th as a shipper. I think he looks like a winner once again. A winning percentage the likes of what McMahon and Broberg have achieved together is outstanding. This racer coming off a good try in the last month or so is a serious competitor in my book. EVEN ECHO - Don't often see a favorable return on investment like +470. This jockey/trainer duo has done well together over the last year.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ROYAL MILE (ML=4/1),

ROYAL MILE - I'm prognosticating a lackluster effort out of him this time out.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#9 EVEN ECHO to win at post-time odds of 9/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

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Lone Star - Race #9 - Post: 5:19pm - Stakes - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $200,000 Class Rating: 115 Lone Star Park H. (Grade 3)

Rating: Golden Dollar

#6 CARVE (ML=6/5)
#5 TAPITURE (ML=7/5)
#4 TEXAS AIR (ML=6/1)


CARVE - This thoroughbred has shown the class ability to win on different ovals. Making the move from Oaklawn for today's event, I have to believe he's ready to run. The most recent fig of 115 is the best last race speed rating in the field. TAPITURE - This one likes to win at different racing venues. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. Ranked number 1 in EPS (earnings per start). Another indication that this horse is the class of the race. TEXAS AIR - On board this mount on May 1st and Hamilton is yet again in the irons in today's contest. On May 1st this gelding shipped in to take the money and looks good right back. Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a strong contest on May 1st. The outside post didn't help this horse's chances in the last race at Lone Star. Today's inside post position should be just fine.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MAJESTIC CITY (ML=8/1),

MAJESTIC CITY - This horse finished off the board on March 7th and wasn't close last out either.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

We're advising skipping the win bets this time

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [4,5,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

Bar

Lone Star - Race #10 - Post: 5:47pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#13 KEEP GUESSING (ML=5/2)
#11 FLYTAP (ML=2/1)


KEEP GUESSING - Such a strong closer. He'll try his best to catch the pace and pass them on the way to the finish line. Owns the highest Equibase speed figure on the turf at this distance. Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a strong outing in the last race within the last month. FLYTAP - That 71 fig this colt registered in his last race tells me he's a big time player in today's event. Adding blinkers often leads to an improved performance on the racetrack.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 PHONE ME (ML=9/2), #2 MAD RULER (ML=6/1), #14 QUADRENNIAL (ML=8/1),

PHONE ME - Recorded a pedestrian speed figure last race out in a $10,000 Maiden Claiming race on March 7th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure. MAD RULER - When checking today's class rating, he will have to notch a much better speed rating than last time out to vie in this turf route. QUADRENNIAL - Hard to wager on at 8/1 odds after the last two efforts.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - FLYTAP - Asmussen has found an easier level of competition for this colt today. Last affair was nowhere near as competitive as this one.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #13 KEEP GUESSING to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [11,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip




Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.

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