Oaklawn Park selections - Michael Nunamaker

Oaklawn Park      Saturday February 21, 2015


Race #1


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 MOJO WORKIN                  5-2       69      76      0.00   
 2 TIZ READY                    6-1       73      78      1.42   
 6 FLEXNOW                      6-1       73      79      1.53   
12 SLICK PARDONED ME            8-1       71      76      2.12   
10 BEWARE THE TIGER             8-1       76      77      2.23   
Commentary

MOJO WORKIN No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Was closer to the lead in last. Showed surprise early speed in last. TIZ READY No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. FLEXNOW Slight speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. SLICK PARDONED ME No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. BEWARE THE TIGER No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
Race #2


Proficiency: Samples=3269 W%=33.9 Net=1.94 Net4+=1.92

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 5 MYRNA ANNE                   7-2       71      72      0.00   
 8 PARADE OF SAINTS             5-1       69      79      0.46   
 6 DON'T MAKER MAD              5-1       65      77      0.70   
10 MS MORRIS CODE               7-1       69      79      1.42   
 2 PRADA'S BLING                9-1       67      75      1.88   
Commentary

MYRNA ANNE Modest pace advantage. Slight speed advantage. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!! PARADE OF SAINTS Best speed at this distance and surface. DON'T MAKER MAD Speed improved in last outing. MS MORRIS CODE Highest earnings per start. PRADA'S BLING No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
Race #3


Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
10 CANDY DANDY                  3-1       77      88      0.00   
 3 HEROIC ACT                   5-1       64      73      1.03   
 7 MYSTERIOUS PROMISE           7-1       67      83      1.56   
 4 CHIEFS EXPECTATION           10-1      69      80      2.56   
 2 LOVE YOUR HUMOR              13-1      71      85      2.85   
Commentary

CANDY DANDY Big pace advantage. Big speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Two moves in last race. Huge class drop should help. HEROIC ACT No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. MYSTERIOUS PROMISE No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. CHIEFS EXPECTATION Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. LOVE YOUR HUMOR Speed improved in last outing.
Race #4


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 4 ANOTHER GEAR                 3-1       70      74      0.00   
 5 GALLANT EAGLE (IRE)          7-2       71      73      0.26   
 2 LOTTO CAT                    6-1       71      73      1.27   
 6 PERFECTLY AT HOME            10-1      74      72      2.26   
11 RED LEAD                     11-1      71      77      2.60   
Commentary

ANOTHER GEAR Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. GALLANT EAGLE (IRE) Slight back speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. LOTTO CAT Modest speed advantage. PERFECTLY AT HOME Three consecutive decreases in speed rating! RED LEAD Highest average purse value.
Race #5


Proficiency: Samples=1661 W%=38.8 Net=2.17 Net4+=2.84

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
10 MALIBU BREEZE                5-2       73      75      0.00   
 6 DISTRACTION                  7-1       73      76      2.33   
 5 RETRO CITIZEN                7-1       75      85      2.42   
 8 HARLANS BELLE                9-1       75      73      2.99   
 1 HAUTE PROSPECT               13-1      70      73      3.74   
Commentary

MALIBU BREEZE Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. DISTRACTION Looks to have an early speed advantage. RETRO CITIZEN Class raise presents a challange. HARLANS BELLE Pace advantage. HAUTE PROSPECT No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
Race #6


Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 3 SEANS SILVERDANCER           7-2       77      75      0.00   
 1 BOURBON WARFARE              7-2       73      76      0.02   
10 RIBBON OF DARKNESS           9-2       69      75      0.63   
 6 ELAINE KOWALESKI             8-1       68      77      1.65   
 9 MIRACLE RUN                  14-1      73      75      2.66   
Commentary

SEANS SILVERDANCER Big pace advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard. BOURBON WARFARE Highest earnings per start. RIBBON OF DARKNESS Three consecutive good finishes. ELAINE KOWALESKI Three consecutive good finishes. MIRACLE RUN Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #7


Proficiency: Samples=1661 W%=38.8 Net=2.17 Net4+=2.84

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 2 DREAMSDOCOMETRUE             2-1       73      72      0.00   
 7 KING OF NEW YORK             9-2       67      80      2.05   
10 MR. TICKLE                   8-1       71      74      3.20   
 3 CRAFTY NAVIGATOR             13-1      64      66      4.18   
 8 RAAGHEB                      18-1      76      86      4.68   
Commentary

DREAMSDOCOMETRUE Speed advantage. KING OF NEW YORK Back speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. MR. TICKLE Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. CRAFTY NAVIGATOR Speed improved in last outing. RAAGHEB Pace advantage. I like the workouts.
Race #8


Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 7 SPRING INCLUDED              7-2       77      91      0.00   
 2 BOSS BARNEY'S BABE           7-2       74      87      0.03   
 5 HAVEYOUGONEAWAY              9-2       69      86      0.54   
 4 LASTING BUBBLES              8-1       75      93      1.57   
 8 FLOWER SPELL                 9-1       76      90      1.70   
 6 HEYKITTYKITTYKITTY           11-1      69      86      2.23   
 3 CHORTLE                      19-1      75      90      3.13   
 1 GRATZIE                      86-1      74      88      5.42   
Commentary

SPRING INCLUDED Slight pace advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. BOSS BARNEY'S BABE A well worked out horse. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. HAVEYOUGONEAWAY Highest earnings per start at today's track. LASTING BUBBLES Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. FLOWER SPELL Modest back speed advantage.
Race #9


Proficiency: Samples=1661 W%=38.8 Net=2.17 Net4+=2.84

PN Horse Name                  Odds      Pace   Speed     BLs
 8 CONQUEST COBRA               5-2       72      71      0.00   
 5 ESCALATE                     4-1       73      74      1.21   
 1 PROMISE ME FREEDOM           8-1       70      67      2.71   
 9 EMRAAN                       10-1      74      85      3.04   
 7 PERFECTLY                    18-1      69      73      4.29   
Commentary

CONQUEST COBRA Highest earnings per start. ESCALATE Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. PROMISE ME FREEDOM Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. EMRAAN Pace advantage. Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. PERFECTLY No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.

Best Bet of the day


Race 5 MALIBU BREEZE

Proficiency

This is a short report on how well my selections perform on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.

Samples: The number of races of this specific type that have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54 and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.




Program Number

This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check this number with the official program before placing a wager! There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name

This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds

The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line. That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take. So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you should have a good bet.
Pace Figure

The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed

Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Equibase ® speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces, tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths

Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths the horse will finish behind the winner. Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered. The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds than the horse predicted to come in second. This only happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts than the horse predicted to come in second.