David E. Johnson, Ph.D  Jerry C. Kenley, Ph.D
David E. Johnson, Ph.D
THE VALULINE

America's Betting Line

Today's Win Contenders
With Betting Line and Betting Strategies

The Professional Risk Analysis in Horse Racing

Penn National - Saturday - February 21, 2015

Jerry C. Kenley, Ph.D

Learn how to bet these horses for most profit.
Buy Dr. Johnson's book, Value Betting at the Racetrack.
Go to www.thevaluline.com/valuebetting.htm for information.

The Thoroughbred Valuline™ is accessible from www.thevaluline.com, or by fax: 1-800-334-3800. Also from: trackmaster.com (Thoroughbred Selections) or equibase.com (Expert Selections), twinspires.com (Handicapping), tvg.com (Racing Info), and xpressbet.com. The Guide to Using The Valuline is available in Spanish and in Chinese.
Strength rating
Positive Factors
Most Likely Winners
Recommended Exotic Wagers
 
 
 
5    4    2   
 
 
 
I T 
J T 

PEN-1 6f DIRT                  7 Horses
(06:00) D          MCL 7,500 3Y $12,400
P# dd ex p3 p4 t s     ML   WP    TVL  
 2 SENOR LAGUNA        5/1  33%   2/1  
 4 ZEN MARVIN          2/1  25%   3/1  
 1 THUNDER RANGER      4/1  14%   6/1  



 
 
 
5    4    3   
 
 
 
D J S 
D P W 
 
PEN-2 1mile DIRT               9 Horses
(06:27) B       CLM 16,000 4YUP $19,000
P# dd ex p3 t s        ML   WP    TVL  
 9 FAT CITY           10/1  29%   5/2 
 5 ONE SIP            10/1  22%   7/2 
 3 BRIGHT MONBA       10/1  17%   5/1  
FAT CITY is a Monster Value Bet.
ONE SIP is a Monster Value Bet.


Daily Double: 9, 5, 3 3

 
 
 
8    9   
 
 
 
T W 
I P 
PEN-3 1mile DIRT               7 Horses
(06:54) A              MSW F 3Y $28,500
P# dd ex p3 t s        ML   WP    TVL  
 3 NO PESO NO SAYSO    5/2  36%   9/5 
 4 CHLOE'S WHITE SOX   6/1  36%   9/5 
NO PESO NO SAYSO is a Power Play which can be used in your exotics.
CHLOE'S WHITE SOXS is a Longshot Value Bet.


Exacta Box: 3 w 4
Daily Double: 3 2, 5, 3

 
 
 
13    6    6   
 
 
 
D M T 
C I 
J T 
PEN-4 6f DIRT                 11 Horses
(07:22) A       CLM 25,000 F 3Y $20,000
P# dd ex p3 t s        ML   WP    TVL  
 2 LIFE AT SIX         7/2  36%   9/5 $
 5 FUNNY FILM          4/1  18%   9/2  
 3 OH DEANN            9/2  18%   9/2  
LIFE AT SIX is a Value Bet.



 
 
 
13    10    7    5   
 
 
 
C J M 
J T 
P W 

PEN-5 1m1/16 DIRT             10 Horses
(07:49) A          ALW F/M 4YUP $33,300
P# dd ex p3 p4 t s     ML   WP    TVL  
 5 SOX TO THE HOX      8/1  29%   5/2 
 6 HISTORY BOOK        3/1  22%   7/2  
 1A e-JUMPING BEAN     9/2  14%   6/1  
 7 SISTER JANICE      15/1  13%   7/1  
SOX TO THE HOX is a Longshot Value Bet.



 
 
 
15    4   
 
 
 
D J M W 
 
PEN-6 6f DIRT                 12 Horses
(08:16) A        CLM 5,000 4YUP $12,400
P# dd ex p3 t s        ML   WP    TVL  
 3 NAVY CROSS          5/1  38%   8/5 $
 1 IT ALL ADDS UP     10/1  14%   6/1  
NAVY CROSS is a Value Bet.


Daily Double: 3, 1 5

 
 
 
13    6    6   
 
 
 
J M 
C D M 

PEN-7 1mi-70 DIRT             11 Horses
(08:43) A        CLM 5,000 4YUP $12,400
P# dd ex t s           ML   WP    TVL  
 5 LOVESHACKLED        2/1  36%   9/5 
 4 TOCO BOY            7/2  18%   9/2  
 9 WEEKEND AFFAIR     10/1  18%   9/2  
LOVESHACKLED is a Power Play which can be used in your exotics.


Exacta Box: 5 w 4, 9
Daily Double: 5 3, 7, 8

 
 
 
10    9    4   
 
 
 
C D P 
C D I M 
J T 
PEN-8 6f DIRT                 12 Horses
(09:10) A        MCL 5,000 4YUP $10,500
P# ex t s              ML   WP    TVL  
 3 SILECTICO           4/1  29%   5/2  
 7 SIR J. J.           5/1  29%   5/2  
 8 LAKER PRIDE         3/1  14%   6/1  



DEFINITIONS:
P#Program Number
MLMorning Line - track handicapper's early estimate of probable post-time odds
WPWin Probability - the horse's chance of winning the race
 NOTE: a WP of 25% means this win contender has a 75% chance of not winning, and you will need 3/1 to break-even on this wager.
TVLTHOROUGHBRED VALULINE - the "fair" odds or "break-even" odds that you need to offset the risk of losing
Thumbs Up (Strong Favorite) - our top-ranked win contender that passes our stringent test for most likely winner and must be "keyed" in all exotic wagers, regardless of price
Power Play - our top-ranked win contender, rated below our Thumbs Up, which can be used in your exotics.
$Value Bet - a high-ranked win contender which is under-valued on the Morning Line; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.
Longshot Value Bet - a win contender whose Morning Line is a 100% overlay to its TVL odds; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.
Monster Value Bet - a win contender whose Morning Line is 10/1, or higher, and is a 100% overlay to its TVL odds; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.
Stop - Chaos - Pass Race
eEntry - Combined win probability of all horses in entry
A-B-C-DRace Grade (quality and reliability of information); "A" is best
Win Contender's Strength Rating: Superior 20 up; Good 13-19; Average 8-12; Marginal 1-7
 
POSITIVE FACTORS:
ANotable Auction price
CPurse winnings at this Course (track) are 50% above the average for this field.
DPurse winnings at this Distance are 50% above the average for this field.
FNotable stud Fee
GPurse winnings on the Grass are 50% above the average for this field.
HHigh win percentage - this horse has won 40% or more of lifetime starts.
IPerformance Index - this horse has Valuline's top speed rating.
JTop Jockey - wins over 18% or earns more than $7500 per mount
LFirst-time Lasix
MOutstanding Money won this field - money won is 100% above the average for this field.
PSuperior early Pace
SSuperior late Speed
TTop Trainer - wins over 20% or earns more than $9500 per start
WOutstanding Workout pattern


GUIDE TO USING THE VALULINE

What is The Valuline?

It is a short list of the most likely winners.

These "selections" are the best in the industry, as measured by the:

"WIN FACTOR" =  #winners

#races
 ÷ #win contenders

#horses entered
For example, 6 winners in 9 races, listing only 1/3 of the horses entered on today's card, yields a WIN FACTOR of 2.0, twice the expected value, and now the industry standard by which all handicappers are measured.

The Valuline (TVL) is generated by a complex computer program, which scientifically evaluates all the past performances of each horse in every race. In addition to reviewing the entire history of each horse, the computer also weighs the success of jockeys and trainers, determining each horse's true chance of winning, and converting its win probability into a betting line (TVL).    TVL = [(1/WP) - 1]

Founded by two university professors of economics and statistics, you can read about their background on "About Us" at www.thevaluline.com.

Making and Keeping Profits at the Races

To profit at the races over time, you must bet on overlays, that is, win contenders whose track odds exceed their true chances of winning.

Among the legitimate contenders, the best horse is not necessarily the best bet. In fact, often the best horse is over-bet, and we must look to the second-, third-, or fourth-best horse to win at a price.

The TVL tells you what odds to accept on each of the win contenders. The objective is to make "value bets".

NOTE: All Value Bets require actual track odds to be higher than TVL odds.

BETTING STRATEGIES

  1. Basic Strategy

    Bet to win on overlays to the TVL.

    The horses are ranked by their chance of winning (WP). However, do not bet by rank. The betting strategy is to bet the horse whose track odds is most above TVL odds (largest overlay):

  2. The Single Value Bet

    At Gulfstream Park on Monday January 19, 2015, there were two very strong ovelays in the ninth race: Mr. Magician and Smart As A Fawkes: both were 15-1. The other two win contenders were underlays. Smart As A Fawkes nosed out Mr. Magician to win, with D'Tumbling Dice finishing third and Seventhfleethumor finishing fourth.

    The bets were: Mr. Magician and Smart As A Fawkes to win (paying $33.20), and boxed in the exacta (paying $398). Plus, the four win contenders in the race were boxed in the $1 Trifecta (for $24) paying $1,215.30, and in the $1 Superfecta (for $24) paying $2,583.40.

    GP-9 1m TURF                              9 Horses
    (4:32)  B                   OCL $35,000 3Y $30,000
    P# dd ex p3 t s                   TVL   Track Odds
     6 MR. MAGICIAN                   3/1   15/1 
     5 SEVENTHFLEETHUMOR              7/2    6/5
     7 SMART AS A FAWKES              9/2   15/1
     4 D'TUMBLING DICE                6/1    7/2
    
  3. Multiple Value Bets

    When there is more than one overlay, we pass the race unless there is a standout overlay.

    Horse "C" is the value bet in the following example:

        Horse    TVL Odds    Track Odds
          A        8/5          9/5
          B        5/2          3/1
          C        5/1         15/1  STANDOUT OVERLAY

  4. Exotic Value Bets

    1. A value bet can be "saved" behind the favorite in an exacta.

    2. A value bet can be used in a daily double.

    3. A value bet can be used with our other win contenders in an exacta, quinella, or trifecta.

    4. A value bet can lead to a good payoff in a pick 3.

    5. Pick 6: This longshot bet may be worth the investment, if there are two or three keys (Thumbs Up or Power Plays) and value bets in the sequence.

    NOTE: A "key" horse is the economical way to bet the exotics: one key triggers recommended daily double and exacta bets; two keys trigger pick 3 and pick 4 bets; three keys trigger pick 5 and pick 6 bets.

    The founders of The Valuline™, Dr. Johnson and Dr. Kenley, encourage your comments and would like to hear of your success. Contact them at davejohnson@roadrunner.com


    The Valuline's

    PACE AND SPEED REPORT

    Penn National - Saturday - February 21, 2015

    Definition:Pace:Early runner likely to be near the lead at the first call.
    Definition:Speed:Late runner with competitive final time.

    Pace and Speed are "snapshots" of a horse race, the Pace snapshot taken during the first half of the race, and the Speed snapshot taken in the stretch run. The picture which best predicts the outcome depends on today's track bias, if any.

    As the contest unfolds, the "pace" horse has the advantage, and the horses near the lead have the best chance of winning the race. But a competitive pace duel, or a tiring track, can "set it up" for the horse whose running is done late, the "speed" of the race.

    Through a computer simulation of all of The Valuline's handicapping factors, the most likely runner at the first call is provided (Pace Report), and also the most likely runner in the stretch (Speed Report).

    If the front-runners are winning, favor the pace horses. If the closers are winning, favor the speed horses. A horse with both pace and speed is always a threat.

    PEN-1   6f  Dirt    Seven Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    1
    2
    THUNDER RANGER
    SENOR LAGUNA
       
     
    PEN-2   1mile  Dirt    Nine Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    5
    ONE SIP
    9
    FAT CITY
     
    PEN-3   1mile  Dirt    Seven Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    4
    CHLOE'S WHITE SOXS
    3
    2
    NO PESO NO SAYSO
    TURKS AND CHAOS
     
    PEN-4   6f  Dirt    Eleven Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    7
    UKNOWFRIENDS
       
     
    PEN-5   1m1/16  Dirt    Ten Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    1A
    JUMPING BEAN
    5
    6
    SOX TO THE HOX
    HISTORY BOOK
     
    PEN-6   6f  Dirt    Twelve Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
           
     
    PEN-7   1mi-70  Dirt    Eleven Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    2
    4
    BIGSTORMRISING
    TOCO BOY
    5
    9
    LOVESHACKLED
    WEEKEND AFFAIR
     
    PEN-8   6f  Dirt    Twelve Horses
    P#  Pace                P#  Speed
    3
    SILECTICO
    7
    6
    SIR J. J.
    PECO TRAIN
    Note:
    + Also has competitive Speed
    * Also has competitive Pace

    Copyright © 2015 JOHNSON, KENLEY & ASSOCIATES INC. ("JKA") All rights reserved. This is a report of THE THOROUGHBRED ODDS LINE TM which is the proprietary property of JKA and is licensed to one user. Reproduction, distribution, or transfer of this product or the information contained herein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of JKA. JKA prepares this product based upon information available and assumes no obligation to supply updates. JKA makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results or outcomes from the use of this product. (J3E)