Pimlico - Sunday, April 26, 2015
We are going to help you make some money today. Winston, The Turf Man & the rest of our associates have worked their tails off to help us bring you a thorough examination of today's race card from Pimlico.We provide you with expert commentary and wagering recommendations. We'll all have a lot of fun.
Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 9 - #1 BEHIND THE TIMES (ML=5/1)
Today's Live Longshot: Race 2 - #2 PLURACITY (ML=10/1)
Pimlico - Race #1 - Post: 1:10pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 71
#6 LIGHTNING LUCY (ML=7/2)
#1 OPIE (ML=7/5)
LIGHTNING LUCY - Juarez and Corrales partnered up are a horse gambler's friend. Dropping 5 lbs from last race. Could be a deciding factor today.
OPIE - Trombetta drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping information to believe this thoroughbred has a good chance at this level. Don't throw out based on last race finish. She didn't end up on the board, but made a nice move in the lane making up ground. Could be dangerous at a possible price. McCarthy rode this entrant for the first time last time around the track and comes right back this race. This filly garnered a nice speed rating of 65 in her last affair. That speed fig should be good enough to win in today's event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SECRET DIARY (ML=4/1),
#2 TALE OF HOUDINI (ML=5/1),
#5 CHICA FABULOSA (ML=6/1),
SECRET DIARY - You have to be concerned that this racer added wraps last time around the track. This grass horse hasn't yet proven that she can run on the dirt. When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, she will have to earn a much better fig than last time around the track to vie in this dirt route.
TALE OF HOUDINI - This pony didn't do much last out finishing sixth. Can't expect improvement today.
CHICA FABULOSA - Hasn't been getting close at all of late. Mediocre speed rating last out at Pimlico at 1 1/16 miles. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will improve too much today.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - OPIE - Closed nicely on Apr 12th at Pimlico. Should do well stretching out to 1 1/16 miles today.
Play #6 LIGHTNING LUCY to win if you can get odds of 9/5 or more
Pimlico - Race #2 - Post: 1:38pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 93
#1 PUGET SOUND (ML=4/1)
#2 PLURACITY (ML=10/1)
#7 SET TO GO (ML=9/5)
#6 TIGER DISTINCTION (ML=12/1)
PUGET SOUND - You'll be generating money right and left by turning your racing money onto this jock/handler combination. I sense a pace scenario where the pace will tire, setting up a perfect situation for his late kick. I like the fact that this gelding's last speed figure, 81, is tops in this field. Don't throw out based on last race finish. He didn't end up on the board, but made a nice move in the lane making up ground. Could be dangerous at a possible price.
PLURACITY - Wolfendale has this horse in the right spot. Smart move here since this equine won a $5,000 Claiming race not too long ago. Faced tougher in the last race at Pimlico. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this horse on my list of contenders.
SET TO GO - This horse likes to win on different ovals. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. Have to make this gelding a solid contender; he comes off a nice effort on March 26th. This gelding gets a weight break of -5 lbs from last race. This could make a difference right here.
TIGER DISTINCTION - This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Bernardini. Better watch out for this angle. A little change in scenery has got to do this one well. Reading the recent past performance lines, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle on different tracks.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TERMSOFENGAGEMENT (ML=8/5),
TERMSOFENGAGEMENT - This gelding showed very liitle last time out.
#1 PUGET SOUND is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better
Box [1,2] Box [1,6]
Pimlico - Race #3 - Post: 2:06pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 85
#7 ITALIAN DELIGHT (ML=4/1)
#2 EXCHANGE STUDENT (ML=5/2)
#5 CINNAMONJELLYBEAN (ML=5/2)
#1A RULE THE BLUES (ML=5/1)
ITALIAN DELIGHT - After the event aboard this horse on April 9th, the rider is going to be in tune with the mare much better. This mare was impressive in finishing second on a slow track on April 9th. A signal that she should do well against these horses in her first turf try. That 88 fig this mare notched in her last race tells me she's a main player in today's event. Have to make this mare a serious competitor; she comes off a sharp race on April 9th.
EXCHANGE STUDENT - She keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. Have to make this mare a serious competitor; she comes off a good race on March 29th.
CINNAMONJELLYBEAN - This first time turf runner is going to give these ponies a run for their money. She came in third in her try on a sluggish track on Apr 9th. Should like the turf. This front running sort is cutting back in distance today. Should help her likelihood of winning. This filly is in nice form, having run a strong race on Apr 9th, finishing third. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a come back. The improved speed figures over the last three races is solid. Magee drops her in this affair in shape and ready to win.
RULE THE BLUES - This filly is entered right back into a race in less than 10 days; this is a positive sign. The jock/handler tandem of Toledo and Magill has a strong return on investment together. 58-67-85 are last 3 speed figures. Improving each time out is something she should do again in this event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 LIVELY TIMES (ML=3/1),
#6 LULU ISLAND (ML=9/2),
#1 TOUGH WEATHER (ML=5/1),
LIVELY TIMES - Finished ninth last time out. Would have to move up to hit the board in today's event. I find it hard to bet on this questionable contender in today's event. Make her show you something in a sprint affair before you bet on her in a race of 5 furlongs.
LULU ISLAND - No accomplishments for this horse in a short distance event over the last sixty days tells me that this filly is in a tough circumstance
TOUGH WEATHER - Tough to support any entrant that runs as well as she did and then lays up and doesn't workout at all.
Not really a race for win bets
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
Pimlico - Race #4 - Post: 2:34pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 87
#8 SIR TRAVIS (ML=9/5)
#5 SOLLY'S MISCHIEF (ML=5/2)
#3 MARVELOUS CHESTER (ML=5/1)
SIR TRAVIS - The way this clash sets up this gelding will be in perfect position when they turn for home. I like that most recent contest on Apr 2nd at Charles Town where he finished second. You always have to be on the lookout for money making jock/handler teams; we have one right here.
SOLLY'S MISCHIEF - Was in a $10,000 Claiming race at Aqueduct last out. That event had a class number of 99 and he is moving down in this event. A certain serious competitor. The rider/trainer tandem of Pimentel and Velazquez has a strong return on investment together.
MARVELOUS CHESTER - Looking like a possible overlay in this event at M/L odds of 5/1. Finished fourth in last race at Pimlico but was close at the finish line. When this jock and trainer team up you have to take a look. Russell and Gonzalez have been great together. I like the fact that this horse's last speed figure, 77, is tops in this field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 STOCK QUOTE (ML=8/1),
STOCK QUOTE - This gelding is always around, but just doesn't finish on top. Difficult to wager on him on the win end. Difficult to take this entrant at these odds after the result (sixth) in the last affair. Finished sixth in his most recent effort with a quite unimpressive speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SIR TRAVIS - Earnings per start is one measure of class I like to check out. This mount is number one in the field and has a good shot to beat this crew.
Just say 'no' to the win bets this race
Box [3,5,8] Total Cost: $6
[3,5,8] with [3,5,8] with [2,3,5,7,8] with [2,3,5,7,8] Total Cost: $36
Pimlico - Race #5 - Post: 3:02pm - Optional Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 96
#10 CUPPY CAKE (ML=3/1)
#7 MUNIRAH (ML=2/1)
#9 BEAR ACCESS (ML=10/1)
CUPPY CAKE - This mare is in nice form. Ran third on April 4th. Based on her last TrackMaster turf rating alone, I'm going to play this horse.
MUNIRAH - Earnings per race is something that I believe can be a very valuable selection factor. This entrant is ranked the highest in this group.
BEAR ACCESS - The jockey/handler twosome of Karamanos and Murray has a strong ROI together. Mare's win percentage is better than 50 percent in first and second starts off a vacation. I think the shorter distance will help this mare stay the trip.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 R U DREAMING (ML=5/2),
#8 YUZURU (ML=5/2),
#4 MISS MOONSHINE (ML=3/1),
R U DREAMING - Not likely that this animal will finish better than she did last time when ending up eighth. All kinds of crazy speed signed up for this race. Little chance for this front-runner.
MISS MOONSHINE - Not the right 'spot' in this event.
Putting our cash on #10 CUPPY CAKE to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
Box [7,9,10] Total Cost: $6
[7,9,10] with [7,9,10] with [4,6,7,9,10] with [4,6,7,9,10] Total Cost: $36
Pimlico - Race #6 - Post: 3:30pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 98
#2 ROLLING YONA (ML=6/5)
#6 IFIMLYINIMDYIN (ML=5/1)
#3 HURLER (ML=6/1)
#4 NEW YAWKER (ML=10/1)
ROLLING YONA - This horse is in excellent physical condition right now. Finished third last time around the track and comes back quickly. Horse is a few starts into a return here. Should give a big performance today. This horse is utmost in earnings per start (EPS). Take a long look at this one in the post parade.
IFIMLYINIMDYIN - Rode this horse on April 11th and Toledo is back again in the irons today. This campaigner coming off a solid contest in the last 30 days is a serious competitor in my book.
HURLER - Gelding won on Jan 2nd at this class and distance. This gelding is in fine form, having run a nice race on April 12th, finishing third.
NEW YAWKER - This gelding seems to run pretty good after a layoff. This one has shown the class ability to win at different tracks. Making the move from Laurel Park for today's event, I have to believe he's ready to run. When Rosado and Cartagena team up on horses the return on investment has been terrific at +110. You probably should toss that last race at Laurel Park on a track listed as good where he finished out of the top three. Should do well today without the off-track conditions.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 DANIEL DID IT (ML=3/1),
DANIEL DID IT - Almost certainly won't make much of an impact this time around.
Go with #4 NEW YAWKER on top if we're getting at least 10/1 odds
Pimlico - Race #7 - Post: 3:58pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $27,000 Class Rating: 60
#4 PRINCESS EMMA ROSE (ML=9/2)
PRINCESS EMMA ROSE - Was in a $25,000 Maiden Claiming race at Tampa Bay last time around the track. That race had an Equibase class figure of 70 and she is moving down in this event. A certain serious competitor.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BOLD GABBY (ML=7/2),
#6 SKI BARE (ML=5/1),
#9 AMAZING ANTHEM (ML=6/1),
BOLD GABBY - This pony hasn't been coming close at the finish line of late. This horse doesn't have a champion's disposition. Very often finishes in the place or show spot.
SKI BARE - This filly gave a lackluster effort last time out. Somewhat easily forgotten speed figure in the last race at Pimlico at 5 furlongs. Don't feel this mount will improve too much in today's race.
AMAZING ANTHEM - Don't believe this less than sharp equine will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's Equibase class figure.
Bet on #4 PRINCESS EMMA ROSE to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
4 with 3
Pimlico - Race #8 - Post: 4:26pm - Optional Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $47,000 Class Rating: 102
#8 D C DANCER (ML=6/1)
#1 HIGH BAR (ML=9/2)
#9 CEMENT CLEMENT (ML=9/5)
D C DANCER - The race may set up nicely for this mount's late kick and he's probably the best stretch runner in the field. The jockey/trainer twosome of Pimentel and Trombetta has a strong ROI together. The racer with the top average class figure in turf events is usually a solid play. This campaigner fits the bill. Last time out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. Pretty good indication he can close well, and should be right there at the wire today. Sub-par performance last race out at Laurel Park was due to the off-going (he finished fifth). Expect better in this field on a non-sloppy track.
HIGH BAR - Don't often see a positive ROI like +515. This rider/trainer tandem has done well together over the last 12 months. This horse could be tough in this race, especially since Toledo rode in the last race and now should be acquainted with this one. Owns the highest speed rating on the turf at this distance. This trainer brings horses to the turf ready to win, winning over 20 percent of the time under similar conditions.
CEMENT CLEMENT - Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should be aided by today's shorter trip. Running 5 furlongs on the turf, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This horse has the tops in the bunch. You have to like that last race speed fig, 114, which is the best recent race speed fig of this group.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ELEVATED (ML=4/1),
#3 THUNDER STRIKE (GB) (ML=6/1),
#7 NEGRITO (ML=6/1),
ELEVATED - Notched a common speed figure in the last race in an Allowance race on April 17th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure.
THUNDER STRIKE (GB) - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint contests of late. Unlikely to see him doing it this time around either.
NEGRITO - This questionable contender hasn't been close to the winner at the finish line recently. Don't think this racer will make an impact in today's event. That last speed figure was quite unimpressive when compared with today's Equibase class figure.
Bet on #8 D C DANCER to win if we can get at least 9/2 odds
Box [1,8,9] Total Cost: $6
[1,8,9] with [1,8,9] with [1,4,5,8,9] with [1,4,5,8,9] Total Cost: $36
Pimlico - Race #9 - Post: 4:55pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 59
#1 BEHIND THE TIMES (ML=5/1)
BEHIND THE TIMES - This mare is in exceptional form right now. Finished third in the last race and comes back quickly.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MANDY'S PUNCH (ML=8/5),
#7 KEYS GARBOY (ML=5/2),
#3 HIBERNIA MYSTERY (ML=7/2),
MANDY'S PUNCH - The morning-line choice is shaky here with the lack of morning activity. This horse doesn't have a conquering mental state. Quite often finishes second or third.
KEYS GARBOY - This mare finished outside the top 3 on March 27th and wasn't even close in the last race either. The fig last out doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this horse as a likely underlay.
HIBERNIA MYSTERY - Hard to take this entrant at these odds after the finish position (fourth) in the last race. The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced equine.
Put your money on #1 BEHIND THE TIMES on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.
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