Pimlico - Monday, May 25, 2015
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Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 5 - #3 EBONY BIRD (ML=9/2)
Today's Live Longshot: Race 7 - #3 SARTORIUS (ML=10/1)
Pimlico - Race #1 - Post: 1:10pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 74
#4 YESTERDAY SINGS (ML=7/5)
#5 LIGHTNIN FAST GIRL (ML=5/1)
YESTERDAY SINGS - Don't often see a favorable ROI like +73. This jockey/handler twosome has done well together over the last 12 months. The way this race sets up this filly will be in perfect stalking position when they enter the stretch.
LIGHTNIN FAST GIRL - Jockey jumped on this filly's back for the 1st attempt on May 7th. Should be in tune with the horse even better today. Was in a $25,000 Claiming race at Pimlico in the last race. That race had a class figure of 85 and she is moving down in this race. A certain solid contender.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 ROYALTY SEA (ML=5/2),
#7 KIPPY FOX (ML=6/1),
#1 DREAM OF PEGASUS (ML=6/1),
ROYALTY SEA - She had to show me more against that weaker field in the last race on May 1st to get my support today.
KIPPY FOX - If you keep choosing these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be dissatisfied regularly. Tough to bet on a racer that loses so frequently.
DREAM OF PEGASUS - Tough to wager on any horse to turn things around if there is no wager value to taking the chance. Not easy to play this questionable contender today. Make her show you something in a short distance event before you bet on her in a race of 6 furlongs.
Putting our cash on #5 LIGHTNIN FAST GIRL to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though
Pimlico - Race #2 - Post: 1:38pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 86
#1A FLAVOR (ML=9/5)
#7 GRANTED RULER (ML=7/2)
#4 ISLAND SUNSET (ML=9/2)
FLAVOR - Leatherbury brings him back again. I suggest you stick with this live gelding. Trainer, Leatherbury, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today.
GRANTED RULER - TrackMaster keeps good stats on this type of information. This gelding always seems to run well after a vacation. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. Earnings per start is something that I believe can be a most important handicapping factor. This entrant is ranked number 1 in this group.
ISLAND SUNSET - My experience tells me to be ready for this horse in this clash
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BRUSH CREEK (ML=9/5),
#6 HEY KID (ML=4/1),
BRUSH CREEK - I can't play this repeated non-winner. Gets the task completed from time to time.
HEY KID - Don't believe this questionable contender will make an impact in today's event. That last speed figure was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's Equibase class figure.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - GRANTED RULER - At Timonium on Aug 30th this gelding posted a speed figure of 83 in his last race. He has the best last figure in the field.
Play #7 GRANTED RULER to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
Box [1,4,7] Total Cost: $6
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
Pimlico - Race #3 - Post: 2:06pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 66
#1 I'MYOURSUGARDADDY (ML=7/5)
#4 HENRYS WAY (ML=10/1)
#7 DANCING NIGHT (ML=6/1)
I'MYOURSUGARDADDY - Looking at the data on all of these ponies, this is the only one to stalk. Worth a good look at this horse. That last race must not have been too hard on this gelding for him to be able to race again so quickly. The last time he tried this distance he got a fig good enough to win this event. Trying to break maiden moving from a turf race to the dirt. I think Magee will have him in good shape for today's contest.
HENRYS WAY - Feliciano rode this horse for the first time last out and comes right back this time. I believe the addition of blinks today will help this gelding focus his attention on racing.
DANCING NIGHT - This thoroughbred coming off a good contest in the last month or so is a serious competitor in my book. Earnings per race is something that I think can be an extremely key handicapping factor. This horse is ranked number one in this group.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BUZZWORTHY (ML=5/1),
#3 ESTATE PLAN (ML=6/1),
#8 UNBRIDLED GHOST (ML=8/1),
BUZZWORTHY - That was just not a very good showing in the last contest.
ESTATE PLAN - Hard to put any dough on this gelding on the win end. Likes to hit the board though.
UNBRIDLED GHOST - Not likely for this participant to make an impact with no recent success in a sprint race. Didn't land in the money on Apr 9th at Charles Town. Followed it up with another less than stellar effort.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - I'MYOURSUGARDADDY - Has been racing regularly since a mini 'vacation'. According to my data, horses hit their peak cycle in their 3rd or 4th race back. Watch out for this one in this race.
#4 HENRYS WAY to win at post-time odds of 8/1 or better
1 with [4,7]
Box [1,4,7] Total Cost: $6
Pimlico - Race #4 - Post: 2:34pm - Starter Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 103
#5 MAJESTIC NUMBER (ML=6/1)
#6 THE CAMDEN COMET (ML=2/1)
#1 CLASSIC WILDCAT (ML=9/2)
#3 DANIEL DID IT (ML=8/1)
MAJESTIC NUMBER - Won his last after shipping in. I like him again. I like to bet on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a nice effort within the last 30 days.
THE CAMDEN COMET - Is ranked highest in earnings per race. A powerful outing in this field can augment the lifetime bankroll.
CLASSIC WILDCAT - Thorpe comes to ride after getting to know the gelding in the last event. Thorpe and Leatherbury partnered up are a punter's friend. Gelding is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a big performance today.
DANIEL DID IT - This horse could be tough this race, especially since Juarez rode last time around the track and now should be acquainted with this one. I really like sprinters that make a rapid turnaround. Finished out of the top three last out at Pimlico, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 8/1 makes me think he's got a chance.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SACHICOMULA (ML=9/5),
SACHICOMULA - This chalk horse hasn't visited the track in awhile. No morning activity since last race.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - CLASSIC WILDCAT - This thoroughbred is a top contender against these horses. This gelding has been victorious many a time at Pimlico.
Putting our cash on #5 MAJESTIC NUMBER to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/1 or better though
Pimlico - Race #5 - Post: 3:02pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $27,000 Class Rating: 62
#3 EBONY BIRD (ML=9/2)
EBONY BIRD - Personally, I wouldn't worry about where she finished in her last race (seventh). Should rebound right here in this race, with some respectable odds. I like a runner that makes a good late run in a sprint race and comes back in a route.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 ANITA'S COOKIN (ML=2/1),
#10 HOLY SCAT (ML=7/2),
#9 SILVER LIDO (ML=6/1),
ANITA'S COOKIN - Last raced on May 2nd at Pimlico, finishing seventh. Not likely to perk up off of that outing in today's event. I don't normally play a morning-line favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last 3 weeks.
HOLY SCAT - This thoroughbred just hasn't looked fit lately.
SILVER LIDO - This filly hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last couple of efforts. Improbable that the speed figure she registered on May 10th will be enough in this event.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - EBONY BIRD - Some elements to consider. This filly is going on Lasix for the second time. My calculation shows that any time Smith does this, the horse is ready to win.
Play #3 EBONY BIRD to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
Pimlico - Race #6 - Post: 3:30pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 81
#5 DYSPROSIUM (ML=7/5)
#2 TRADE RUMOR (ML=6/1)
DYSPROSIUM - This jockey and conditioner's equines have been producing a favorable return on investment. Faced tougher last time around the track at Pimlico. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker group, so I will put this animal on my list of top contenders.
TRADE RUMOR - This gelding is in superb form right now. Ran first last time around the track and comes back soon. When a thoroughbred drops at least five pounds (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but should make the difference. Look at this pattern of improvement. 63/72/75 are the last three speed ratings.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 FLASH HEART (ML=3/1),
#3 BIG BOOMER (ML=5/1),
FLASH HEART - If you keep playing these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disappointed often.
BIG BOOMER - Can't make a habit of betting on horses that rarely win. This gelding garnered a fig in his last race which likely isn't good enough in today's event.
Have to go with #2 TRADE RUMOR on the win end if we get at least 5/1 odds
Pimlico - Race #7 - Post: 3:58pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 82
#10 DEPOSIT SLIP (ML=5/1)
#3 SARTORIUS (ML=10/1)
DEPOSIT SLIP - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this racer is encountering an easier bunch than last time around the track at Saratoga. Have to give this race horse a serious look. In recent races, has posted the best speed ratings on the turf at this distance. This gelding has impressed last two times out posting solid Equibase speed figs. With a repeat performance, he'll probably be a winner. Fout has this magnificent animal prepping well coming into today. 3 strong speed figs in most recent events make me say this animal will be tough in today's race. This gelding's last speed rating registered on August 31st is tops in last race speed figures.
SARTORIUS - Taking a trip to a lower level; has the ability to make his presence felt. Entered an Allowance race at Great Meadows last time out and raced on the soft turf finishing seventh. Expect better in this field. This gelding gets a weight break of -26 pounds from last race. Certainly could make the difference in this event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BRIDGE OF LUCK (ML=7/2),
#12 DUNNE HALL (ML=4/1),
#5 DYNAFORMERSREQUEST (ML=5/1),
BRIDGE OF LUCK - The sixth place result in the last affair was not the best.
DUNNE HALL - Registered a disappointing speed fig in the last race in a Maiden Special race on May 15th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that number.
DYNAFORMERSREQUEST - Likely won't make much of a mark this time around.
Play #10 DEPOSIT SLIP to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
Pimlico - Race #8 - Post: 4:26pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 81
#6 QUALITY CALLIN (ML=9/2)
#7 SPARKLING JEWEL (ML=3/1)
#4 WILLIE B MINE (ML=8/1)
QUALITY CALLIN - My buddies and I have made cash playing ponies with this type of pace. Follow my advice and do the same. Ortiz rode this thoroughbred for the first time in the last race and comes right back this time. With a big class drop in class figure points from his May 7th race at Pimlico. Based on that element, I will give this thoroughbred the edge. This gelding is clearly on the improve with speed ratings of 77, 80, 88 last three out. This gelding garnered a strong speed rating of 88 in his last clash. That speed figure should be high enough to win today.
SPARKLING JEWEL - The July 26th event at Delaware was at a class level of (93). Dropping to a lower class level considerably, so he should be in a good spot. All systems look good for this gelding. Last morning work, 2nd fastest of the day, shows he's fit and ready. If this thoroughbred repeats any of his last three efforts, he'll have a great shot to win in this field.
WILLIE B MINE - The fact that this gelding is entered right back into a race so quickly means he's fit and ready. Winless in his last three starts, this gelding's last win came on Jan 10th at the same level and distance of today's race. Last raced at Pimlico carrying 5 lbs more. The lower weight in today's race should serve him well.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 IT'S A BANG (ML=9/5),
#5 CLOUDY RIVER (ML=5/1),
IT'S A BANG - No value in throwing a few bucks at this runner. Probably won't improve off that May 3rd affair. 9/5 is just not enough of a price to take on most any racer that has run poorly in back to back races.
CLOUDY RIVER - Tough to back a three year old meeting older for the first time. Probably needs more seasoning.
#6 QUALITY CALLIN is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
Box [4,6,7] Total Cost: $6
Pimlico - Race #9 - Post: 4:55pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 85
#10 U. K. GIRL (ML=7/2)
#8 MORAL HIGH GROUND (ML=7/2)
#2 PROPER HEIRESS (ML=3/1)
U. K. GIRL - I expect a lot from this fine animal. Her speed figs under similar conditions are tops in this field. The May 2nd race at Pimlico was at a class level of (94). Dropping down the ladder based on class significantly, so she should be in a good position to win.
MORAL HIGH GROUND - Mare's win percentage is better than 50 percent in first and second starts off a layoff. When I handicap a turf race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This race horse has the highest average class in the entire field.
PROPER HEIRESS - This mare is in fine physical condition. Finished first on May 9th. Karamanos and Figgins perform well when they are put together. It's hard to beat a +90 ROI for a jockey and conditioner. This mare has plenty of ability on the turf. Could be long gone by the time they hit the top of the lane.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 CHANCE ENCOUNTER (ML=5/2),
#16 FREE D'OR (ML=4/1),
#13 PASCHENDALE (ML=4/1),
CHANCE ENCOUNTER - Difficult to wager on at 5/2 odds after the last two outings. Not a value play to back the public's top choice when she continues to lose time and time again when favored.
FREE D'OR - This mare hasn't been showing me anything in the last couple of races around the track.
PASCHENDALE - The finish position of fifth in the last event shows me that this animal may be tailing off. This mare raced surprisingly well on April 16th placing fifth, but hasn't even visited the track since then. Not really a good sign. There's zip, zip, and more early speed in this event. Doesn't seem too promising for this animal.
#10 U. K. GIRL is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better
Box [2,8,10] Total Cost: $6
[2,8,10] with [2,8,10] with [2,8,10,13,14] with [2,8,10,13,14] Total Cost: $36
Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.
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