Turf Club Analysts
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Prairie Mdws - Sunday, April 26, 2015

We burned the midnight oil to come up with some winners for you today at Prairie Mdws. Our chums, Hal and The Brain and all the rest are going to help you make some serious money today. Grab a cola or a nice, cold brew, choose a lucky seat, and buckle up for a fabulous day.

Cash

Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 9 - #4 ONE QUICK TRICK (ML=6/1)

Today's Live Longshot: No races with a Live Longshot


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Prairie Mdws - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Starter Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating: Golden Dollar

#1 IDEBEASUPERSTAR (ML=3/1)
#3 LUCKY BOWTIE (ML=9/2)
#5 SATURDAY SENSATION (ML=4/1)


IDEBEASUPERSTAR - This rider and handler's horses have been producing a favorable return on investment. A repeat of that most recent performance on Apr 11th where he recorded a speed rating of 85 looks good enough to prove victorious in this affair. Recent Equibase speed figures show powerful pattern of improvement. LUCKY BOWTIE - Last ran at Hawthorne and finished fourth. Reviewing his PP lines, I see he was close at the end, within five of the winner. SATURDAY SENSATION - Anderson has this gelding spotted in the perfect affair.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 DOING IT RIGHT (ML=7/2), #6 BELMARTIAN (ML=4/1), #4 ROADRUNNERBEEPBEEP (ML=6/1),

DOING IT RIGHT - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance races lately. Not likely to see him doing it this time either. When looking at today's class rating, he will have to notch a better speed fig than last time around the track to be competitive in this dirt sprint. BELMARTIAN - Garnered a mediocre speed rating in the last race in a $30,000 Maiden Claiming race on April 9th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure. ROADRUNNERBEEPBEEP - This rallier looks to have little chance without an early speed duel up front. Mediocre speed rating in the last race at Oaklawn at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this steed will improve too much in today's event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #3 LUCKY BOWTIE to win if you can get odds of 5/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,3,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

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Prairie Mdws - Race #2 - Post: 1:26pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 62

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 ROUGH DAN (ML=3/1)
#5 TRAIN WALK (ML=5/1)
#7 KINETIC (ML=7/2)


ROUGH DAN - The most recent figure of 59 is the best last race fig in the field. Mello and Shorter partnered up are a horse gambler's friend. Look at this pattern of improvement. 35/50/59 are the last three speed figs. TRAIN WALK - The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. I think that today's shorter distance should help this gelding. KINETIC - Rounding his way back into form. Each of his finish positions is getting better in his recent starts. When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after his last outing, it generally means he's fit. This colt is rounding his way back into shape. Should compete well today. Entered a $15,000 Maiden Claiming race at Prairie Mdws last race out and raced in the slop finishing fifth. Has to do better right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 FUN GUS AMONGUS (ML=4/1), #2 D'WILD TIGER (ML=5/1),

FUN GUS AMONGUS - This racer just hasn't looked ready recently. Not probable for this horse to do much running with no recent good showings in a sprint event. D'WILD TIGER - In any contest of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been on the board in short distance races of late.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#1 ROUGH DAN is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

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Prairie Mdws - Race #3 - Post: 1:53pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 62

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 STAR OF GALLANTRY (ML=4/1)
#3 FOUR POINT ZERO (ML=7/2)
#7 B'S HONEY (ML=9/2)


STAR OF GALLANTRY - Last out, this one was in a race at Oaklawn in a race with a class figure of 79. Dropping significantly in Equibase class figure this time out puts her in a solid position in this field. Traditional handicapping angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Going to run a nice one here. FOUR POINT ZERO - I like this filly. Has the highest earnings per race in here today. B'S HONEY - This filly is in good form, having run a strong race on April 8th, finishing third. Always be careful of the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. Filly is a few starts into a return here. Should give a big race today. This animal gets a barn change by way of a claim out of the last race. Trainer here is terrific off of the claim, so no reason why this horse won't have a chance at a big race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 KATE'S CAROUSEL (ML=5/1), #1 KARAKORUM QUEEN (ML=5/1), #5 RED DEPUTY'S GIRL (ML=6/1),

KATE'S CAROUSEL - 5/1 is too low of a price to take on most any animal that has run poorly in back to back races. KARAKORUM QUEEN - Should have at least finished in the money in the last couple of months in a sprint event to be worth the risk at modest odds in a sprint. 5/1 is just too low of a price to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back races. RED DEPUTY'S GIRL - No picnic to play any racer in a short distance event at 6/1 when she hasn't shown any competitive efforts in sprints in the last 60 days. A thoroughbred that breaks her maiden in a Maiden Claimer is usually recognized as a poor risk next time.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#4 STAR OF GALLANTRY is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[3,4,7] with [3,4,7] with [3,4,5,6,7] with [3,4,5,6,7] Total Cost: $36

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Prairie Mdws - Race #4 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 89

Rating: Golden Dollar

#1 NICK'S PICK (ML=3/1)
#6 MUCHO MACHO UNO (ML=7/2)
#3 STEEL GUITAR (ML=7/2)
#7 AMIGOS THREE (ML=9/2)


NICK'S PICK - I like to play this angle, a pony coming back off a sharp race within the last 30 days. Colt took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. Expect this colt to be last down the backstretch early and come flying down the lane. Changes tracks from last out at Oaklawn to here. Multiple wins at different tracks tell me this horse likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign. MUCHO MACHO UNO - Gelding won at this class and distance on January 10th at Sunland Park. A little change in scenery has got to do this one well. Reading the recent PP lines, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle on different ovals. STEEL GUITAR - This horse ran out of the top three at Oaklawn last time out in the mud. He should improve in this race without a sloppy track. Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Diodoro enters him at a similar level today. I'd expect an improved performance. Just look at his last figure, 89. That one looks good in this field. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figs (71-82-89) make this one a dominant contender. AMIGOS THREE - This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should race well today. Looks like a possible overlay in this race at M/L odds of 9/2. Finished fourth in last race at Fonner Park but was close at the wire.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 DENALI THUNDER (ML=8/1), #2 HIDDEN QUEST (ML=8/1),

DENALI THUNDER - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last two outings. No picnic to wager on this pony today. Make him show you something in a sprint contest before you wager on him in a race of 6 furlongs. This gelding garnered a speed figure in his last event which likely isn't good enough in today's event. HIDDEN QUEST - You always think this horse has a shot to be victorious, but he fails regularly. He probably cannot repeat that last stretch run effort and win against this field.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - MUCHO MACHO UNO - Looks like Autrey has been trying to find the right class for this horse. Took a big drop in class in last race, but returns to a similar class in this affair. Pretty good indication he may win today.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Save the win bets for another race

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

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Prairie Mdws - Race #5 - Post: 2:47pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,425 Class Rating: 71

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 LA REINA DE IOWA (ML=5/1)


LA REINA DE IOWA - Personally, I wouldn't worry about where she finished in her last race (sixth). Should rebound today, with some respectable odds. This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Laviolette gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. This filly's last speed rating is good enough to score here, I'll wager on her right back this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 CRAZY JACITO (ML=7/2), #8 POINTGUARD RYLIE (ML=5/1), #1 SALUTE THE TROOPS (ML=6/1),

CRAZY JACITO - I think this probable favorite needs this race under her belt to start getting back into shape. POINTGUARD RYLIE - In any contest of 6 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been sharp in sprint contests of late. Will probably be at the rear with way too much to do in the homestretch. SALUTE THE TROOPS - The speed figs are going downward. I'm not placing a wager on this vulnerable equine off of that trend. I don't think this steed likes running on the inside, certainly not out of the one hole.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - LA REINA DE IOWA - Earnings per start is one measure of class I like to check out. This mount is at the top in the field and has a good shot to beat this crew.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#4 LA REINA DE IOWA is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

4 with 2

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

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Prairie Mdws - Race #6 - Post: 3:14pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating: Golden Dollar

#2 DISCREET DEPUTY (ML=8/5)
#6 BRUSSEL SPROUT (ML=3/1)


DISCREET DEPUTY - I like this filly. Has the uppermost earnings per start (EPS) in today's contest. Getting a weight break of 5 lbs from last race at Fonner Park on March 28th. Should help right here. BRUSSEL SPROUT - This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Wethey gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 REALLY BIG SHOW (ML=9/2), #1 THRU THE MAZE (ML=5/1), #5 HOLLY'S BABY DAHL (ML=6/1),

REALLY BIG SHOW - No picnic to support any less than sharp equine in a short distance affair if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months. This racer ran a most unsatisfactory speed fig last time out. She shouldn't run better and will probably suffer defeat in today's event running that number. THRU THE MAZE - This runner will likely be at the back of the pack as this bunch crosses the wire. HOLLY'S BABY DAHL - This less than sharp equine will probably be at the back of the pack as this bunch crosses the finish line.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - DISCREET DEPUTY - At Fonner Park on March 28th this filly posted a speed figure of 60 in her last race. She has the best last figure in the field.
 
 
 


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #6 BRUSSEL SPROUT on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Bar

Prairie Mdws - Race #7 - Post: 3:41pm - SO - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 101

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 ECLETO RED (ML=7/2)
#6 VIVA OUTLAW (ML=4/1)


ECLETO RED - This horse likes to win on different ovals. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone speedball facing sluggish sorts today. You have to be keen on that last race figure, 96, which is the highest recent race figure of this field. VIVA OUTLAW - A little change in scenery has got to do this horse well. Reading the PPs, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle on different tracks.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TAP THE ADMIRAL (ML=3/1), #5 HAPPY TOES (ML=5/1), #2 ONE VOICE (ML=6/1),

TAP THE ADMIRAL - This vulnerable equine hasn't been on the track since April 3rd. Not even any morning drills. When looking at today's class figure, he will have to garner a much better speed figure than last out to be competitive in this dirt route. HAPPY TOES - Ran well to finish first on Mar 15th, but hasn't had even a morning drill since then. On a downward sequence. Speed figs keep deteriorating. ONE VOICE - A bit of a less than stellar performance when this gelding finished sixth. Pace makes the race and the scarcity of pace means this rallier will have to rally without any help.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #3 ECLETO RED to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/5 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

3 with 6 with [4,5,8] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

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Prairie Mdws - Race #8 - Post: 4:07pm - Allowance - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,500 Class Rating: 80

Rating: Golden Dollar

#6 BATTLE TALE (ML=5/2)
#5 GOLD DUST DIVA (ML=4/1)
#3 MAGNOLIA STEEL (ML=3/1)


BATTLE TALE - I'm optimistic this filly will run well today. Last workout was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me she's sharp right now. Taking this jockey/handler combination is a smart choice. Last raced at Oaklawn in a race with an Equibase class figure of 89. Dropping significantly in class rating in today's event puts her in a solid position right here in this race. GOLD DUST DIVA - This animal brings in a lot of money per race around the track. Tops in this event. Dropping 7 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today. MAGNOLIA STEEL - This filly's last speed rating recorded on March 25th is at the top in last race speed ratings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 WONDERFUL STAR (ML=7/2), #1 MYRNA ANNE (ML=9/2), #4 STELAWITHANATITUDE (ML=6/1),

WONDERFUL STAR - A thoroughbred that breaks her maiden in a Maiden Claimer is usually recognized as a poor risk next out. When checking today's class figure, she will have to earn a better speed figure than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt route. MYRNA ANNE - When examining today's class figure, she will have to register a much better speed fig than in the last race to vie in this dirt route. STELAWITHANATITUDE - This racer hasn't shown much life in the last two contests.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 BATTLE TALE to win at post-time odds of 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

6 with [3,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,5,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[3,5,6] with [3,5,6] with [1,3,4,5,6] with [1,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36

Bar

Prairie Mdws - Race #9 - Post: 4:33pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,425 Class Rating: 61

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 ONE QUICK TRICK (ML=6/1)


ONE QUICK TRICK - This magnificent animal should be motoring down the stretch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 TEA PARTY CAMPAIGN (ML=3/1), #1 ODES OF PINDAR (ML=4/1), #2 HESOSO FURRY (ML=6/1),

TEA PARTY CAMPAIGN - I find it hard to wager on any runner in a sprint affair if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last two months. I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Extended vacation and no drop in level of competition. This mount hasn't won at this track. ODES OF PINDAR - No picnic to play any vulnerable equine in a sprint event if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months. HESOSO FURRY - Doesn't seem inspiring to me after the lack of any sort of closing talent on April 12th. I can't play this frequent non-winner. Gets the job executed now and then.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#4 ONE QUICK TRICK is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None




Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.

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