Prairie Mdws - Saturday, May 2, 2015
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Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 9 - #1 JACKIE BLU (ML=2/1)
Today's Live Longshot: Race 7 - #6 ROYAL EDGE (ML=8/1)
Prairie Mdws - Race #1 - Post: 4:15pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 90
#3 DAKOTA DIGGER (ML=6/1)
#1 MY TIP (ML=5/1)
#4 JUAN'S CORAZONSITO (ML=6/1)
DAKOTA DIGGER - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the first ride on Apr 18th. Should be acquainted with the horse even better today. Could be a potential overlay in this race at morning odds of 6/1. Finished fourth in last race at Prairie Mdws but was close at the end. Look for this gelding to run much better in this race. Last contest at Prairie Mdws finishing fourth in the slop is no sign of his true ability.
MY TIP - When Creighton gives Canchari a leg up on any mount, you have to feel that with their win pct you have much more than a fighting chance. Expect this gelding to be back of the pack early and come cruising down the homestretch.
JUAN'S CORAZONSITO - I like to see fast morning drills. This gelding's last one was very good. Second fastest of the day. The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Autrey. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. The addition of the 'hood' should keep his mind on business today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DENHAM (ML=9/5),
#5 BROTHER DAY (ML=4/1),
#2 CELTIC DRAMA (ML=9/2),
DENHAM - Tough to put your cash on this oft beaten public's top choice. Not much value.
BROTHER DAY - This horse hasn't shown much effort in the last pair of contests. Don't feel this mount will make an impact in today's event. That last speed figure was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's class figure.
CELTIC DRAMA - This horse will probably need at least one more race after the lackluster showing following the long layoff. This gelding showed little last time out.
Play #3 DAKOTA DIGGER to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
Box [1,3,4] Total Cost: $6
Prairie Mdws - Race #2 - Post: 4:41pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 79
#6 LAUNCH LIGHT (ML=5/1)
#8 WHIPSTOCK (ML=6/1)
#3 DIESEL'S PRIZE (ML=9/2)
#7 JUST A COINCIDENCE (ML=8/1)
LAUNCH LIGHT - Last race was at Oaklawn in a race with a class rating of 93. Dropping considerably in class rating this time around puts him in a solid position in this event. Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone speed freak facing sluggish sorts today. This racer ran out of the top three at Oaklawn last out on a muddy track. He should improve right here in this race without the off-track conditions. Multiple wins over the surface right here at Prairie Mdws. Maybe, another trip to the winner's circle right here in this race.
WHIPSTOCK - Changes tracks from last out at Sunland Park to here. Multiple wins at different racing venues tell me this one likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign. Just missed hitting the board on March 23rd at Sunland Park. With decent morning odds right here in this race, he has my interest.
DIESEL'S PRIZE - Multiple wins over the surface right here at Prairie Mdws. Maybe, another trip to the winner's circle right here. Last out, this one was in a race at Sunland Park in a race with a class number of 88. Dropping a significant amount in class rating today puts him in a solid position in this race.
JUST A COINCIDENCE - This horse has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Arnett. Better watch out for this angle. This horse has been trying different distances, but from the looks of things, he ran a nice speed rating last try at this distance. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this pony is encountering an easier field than last time around the track at Prairie Mdws.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BIG SUGARUSH (ML=3/1),
#5 PENNY PINCHIN PAT (ML=5/1),
#2 LANGFURS LIGHTNING (ML=6/1),
BIG SUGARUSH - Difficult to play any horse in a short distance race at 3/1 when he hasn't shown any competitive efforts in sprints in the last sixty days.
PENNY PINCHIN PAT - Didn't hit the board on July 20th at Prairie Mdws. Followed it up with another less than stellar performance. The Brain cautions me to keep away from ponies in sprint races that haven't hit the board in sprint contests recently.
LANGFURS LIGHTNING - Tough to keep stabbing at this sort of 'hanger' horse. No accomplishments for this steed in a short distance race over the last two months tells me that this gelding is in a formidable situation
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - JUST A COINCIDENCE - I start with the class horse in the bunch then work my way down. This one's got the top earnings per start. No need to look further.
Putting our cash on #6 LAUNCH LIGHT to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/1 or better though
Box [6,8] Box [6,7]
Prairie Mdws - Race #3 - Post: 6:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,910 Class Rating: 61
Don't waste your hard earned dough in this race. Better values to be had elsewhere.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 KARAOKE KING (ML=3/1),
#2 MONTANA ROCKY (ML=7/2),
#5 PATTI'S EDGE (ML=7/2),
KARAOKE KING - Should have at least finished in the money in the last couple months in a sprint event to be worth it at low odds in a sprint. Awfully tough to play this horse when he hasn't been showing any signs of life lately. Finished sixth in his most recent performance with a mediocre speed fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this group.
MONTANA ROCKY - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint contests recently. Not probable to see him doing it this time out either. This vulnerable equine ran a disappointing rating in the last race. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely suffer defeat in today's race running that number.
PATTI'S EDGE - Awfully hard to play this entrant when he hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness lately. The Brain always warns me to stay away from thoroughbreds in short distance contests that haven't finished in the money in short distance affairs of late.
No reasonable straight wagers found for this race
Prairie Mdws - Race #4 - Post: 6:27pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 79
#5 J K'S MISCHIEF (ML=5/1)
#4 HAFORUHAFORME (ML=8/1)
J K'S MISCHIEF - Sub-par outing in the last race at Oaklawn was due to the off-going (she finished ninth). Should do better in this race without the slop.
HAFORUHAFORME - Earnings per race is something that I feel can be a most important handicapping factor. This mount is ranked number one in this field. Trainer Kumke moves this horse to a lower class rank to face a weaker level today. Look for a sharp race this time out. When a thoroughbred drops at least 5 pounds (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but should help.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 EXPAND THE MOMENT (ML=5/2),
#2 MY MAJESTIC (ML=7/2),
#6 NATALIES STORM (ML=5/1),
EXPAND THE MOMENT - Shouldn't play this one as the public's choice with little to offer for the risk involved. This chalk horse hasn't been to the track in awhile. No works since last race.
MY MAJESTIC - Don't think this less than sharp equine is worth 7/2 in this clash.
NATALIES STORM - The speed fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this animal as a likely underpriced contender. This mare will likely bounce, and not be in the vicinity of the recent speed rating of 65.
#5 J K'S MISCHIEF is the play if we get odds of 8/5 or better
Prairie Mdws - Race #5 - Post: 6:54pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,910 Class Rating: 61
#5 KUEMPER PRIDE (ML=5/2)
#3 BROWN SUGAR TALK'N (ML=10/1)
KUEMPER PRIDE - Ran last time around the track against much better horses at Prairie Mdws. The move to a lower class level should suit him well. Last out, finished ninth in the slop at Prairie Mdws. Has to do better in this race. Have to like the way Anderson has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Equine is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today.
BROWN SUGAR TALK'N - This gelding's last speed figure is high enough to triumph here, I'll bet on him right back today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 AFLEETASHA (ML=2/1),
#4 U S OUTPOST (ML=3/1),
#1 TOUR TO GLORY (ML=6/1),
AFLEETASHA - Tough to wager on this less than sharp equine in today's event. Make him show you something in a short distance event before you wager on him in a race of 6 furlongs. Pedestrian speed rating last out at Prairie Mdws at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this pony will improve too much in today's race.
U S OUTPOST - This animal's sire hasn't done too well with first time starters.
TOUR TO GLORY - Should have at least finished in the money in the last sixty days in a short distance race to be any kind of value at modest odds in a sprint. Finished ninth last out. Would have to advance to hit the board in today's race.
#5 KUEMPER PRIDE to win at post-time odds of 5/2 or better
Prairie Mdws - Race #6 - Post: 7:21pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 70
#7 MISTY JOURNEY (ML=7/2)
#9 MS DIXIE GIRL (ML=8/1)
#8 ITASCA FALLS (ML=4/1)
MISTY JOURNEY - Look two races back where the thoroughbred finished second. You can excuse the last race where she bounced a bit. I see a return to form today. I am keen on that most recent race on April 19th at Prairie Mdws where she finished second. EPS (earnings per start) is something that I believe can be a valuable factor. This thoroughbred is ranked at the top of the list in this bunch.
MS DIXIE GIRL - Just missed hitting the board on Apr 19th at Prairie Mdws. With pretty decent M/L odds in this event, she has my interest. Tohill was aboard this filly last time out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Anderson is hoping to get a little more out of this filly by adding blinkers today. Forgive the out of the money finish on the off track last time around the track. Under better track conditions, has a shot in this field.
ITASCA FALLS - I just may give this one a good chance. Should rebound off last race where she did run off the board, but was within five lengths at the wire. You should toss out that last event at Prairie Mdws in the slop where she finished outside the top 3. Should do well right here under better track conditions.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SCAT SISTER (ML=5/1),
#5 TURKISH WONDER (ML=6/1),
#1 CHILEAN QUEEN (ML=6/1),
SCAT SISTER - This filly most likely won't be really close at the wire.
TURKISH WONDER - Quite unimpressive speed rating last race out at Prairie Mdws at 6 furlongs. Don't think this runner will improve too much today.
CHILEAN QUEEN - Didn't meet expectations when backed as the favorite twice in a row.
Go with #7 MISTY JOURNEY on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
Box [7,8,9] Total Cost: $6
[7,8,9] with [7,8,9] with [4,6,7,8,9] with [4,6,7,8,9] Total Cost: $36
Prairie Mdws - Race #7 - Post: 7:48pm - Allowance - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $37,896 Class Rating: 85
#6 ROYAL EDGE (ML=8/1)
#3 GREENBACK DOLLAR (ML=3/1)
#4 SAINT GREELEY (ML=6/1)
ROYAL EDGE - This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very beneficial ROI, right at +33. This gelding has 'tactical' speed, Shino will use this advantage by laying in perfect position behind the leaders, and getting first run on the leaders.
GREENBACK DOLLAR - This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's contest is a shorter trip and should increase his chances to win. Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a solid outing on Apr 19th. This gelding registered a nice speed fig of 77 in his last clash. That speed fig should be high enough to win this time around.
SAINT GREELEY - This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's affair is a shorter trip and should help his chances. Last raced at Prairie Mdws carrying 6 lbs more. The lower impost in this event should serve him well.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 KID BROCK (ML=4/1),
#8 PORME NUTHER T R (ML=9/2),
#5 COOPER'S CLIPPER (ML=5/1),
KID BROCK - This colt hasn't had any recent success in sprint events. I find it hard to bet on him in this affair.
PORME NUTHER T R - In the last event this mount finished ninth. Doesn't bode well for his chances this time out. No picnic to wager on this runner in today's event. Make him show you something in a sprint contest before you invest in him in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs.
COOPER'S CLIPPER - Mediocre speed rating last time around the track at Prairie Mdws at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this entrant will improve too much in today's race.
Play #6 ROYAL EDGE to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
6 with [3,4]
Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6
Prairie Mdws - Race #8 - Post: 8:15pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,500 Class Rating: 82
#3 FAITH RISING (ML=9/2)
#6 OUR HOPE (ML=4/1)
FAITH RISING - This jock and conditioner have a favorable ROI when they partner up. My chums and I have made dough playing horses with this type of early speed. Follow my advice and do the same. This mare should be in tip-top shape, this far into her form cycle. While the finish was disappointing, this race horse made a good stretch move in the last race at Oaklawn. Should do better right here.
OUR HOPE - I like that recent race on Apr 4th at Fonner Park where she ended up third. Taking a drop in class rating points from her April 4th race at Fonner Park. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this horse the edge. This mare should be at the peak of fitness, this far into her form cycle. This mare earned a good speed figure of 82 in her last event. That speed figure should be lofty enough to score today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PISTOL'S SHOES (ML=3/1),
#1 SUCCESSFUL SWEEP (ML=7/2),
#5 DISQUALIFIED (ML=5/1),
PISTOL'S SHOES - This filly recorded a rating in her last event which likely isn't good enough today.
SUCCESSFUL SWEEP - 7/2 odds isn't enough for this thoroughbred when examining the most recent showings. Difficult to bet on any steed in a sprint event if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last two months. This less than sharp equine ran a mediocre speed figure last time out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably suffer defeat today running that figure.
DISQUALIFIED - Should have at least finished in the money in the last couple of months in a short distance event to be worth a shot at short odds in a sprint.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - FAITH RISING - Although she ran fifth on Apr 9th, the try wasn't half bad. Expect a good effort this time around.
#3 FAITH RISING is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
Prairie Mdws - Race #9 - Post: 8:42pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 84
#1 JACKIE BLU (ML=2/1)
JACKIE BLU - My pals and I have made cash playing thoroughbreds with this type of pace. Follow my advice and do the same. This gelding seems to run pretty good after a layoff. Trainer Martin moves this one down in class to face a lower rated field. Look for a good race at this level. This horse earns a lot of money per race. Uppermost in this event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BIG FOOT BEN (ML=3/1),
#6 SCAT 'N GO (ML=4/1),
#7 NO STADIUM (ML=8/1),
BIG FOOT BEN - I'd like to see more conducive recent showings with oddsmaker's morning line of 3/1.
SCAT 'N GO - Tough to wager on any entrant like this that didn't hit the board after the very long layoff and comes right back. Didn't finish in the money on November 8th at Hawthorne. Followed it up with another less than stellar try.
NO STADIUM - This gelding gave a less than rousing performance last time. Not easy to play any entrant in a short distance affair at 8/1 when he hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last two months.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - JACKIE BLU - Comparing last speed ratings in this field, nobody beats this gelding. Tops in the field with a last speed rating of 90 on September 12th.
#1 JACKIE BLU is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
1 with [2,7]
Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.
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