Woodbine - Sunday, April 26, 2015
It's Sunday so we're playing Woodbine. There is nothing finer than spending a few hours on an April Sunday at the races. It's certainly, a better way to spend your time than at the game. Like some tracks say, racing is where the athletes pay the fans. Here's the deal. We know a little about betting the ponies and we are going to share our superior knowledge with you. We will give you the insider's point of view and pilot you through what some think is a minefield of information. We will give you the best of what we got, and help you figure out what to bet on (and what not to). Hopefully you will win some dough. Even if not, it's sure to be a kick!
Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 3 - #2 NINTH SYMPHONY (ML=2/1)
Today's Live Longshot: Race 6 - #2 BUONGIORNO JOHNNY (ML=8/1)
Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 72
#2 SILENT BRIDE (ML=6/1)
#3 PECAN PIE (ML=4/1)
SILENT BRIDE - My experience tells me to be ready for this racer in this race
PECAN PIE - Quite frequently, I play a maiden that finished 2nd easily ahead of the show horse in her last effort.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 DUFFINS (ML=8/5),
#6 LADY ST CLEMENTS (ML=2/1),
#4 ELI ANA (ML=8/1),
DUFFINS - Finished third last time out of the box. Would have to perk up to land in the top three in today's race.
LADY ST CLEMENTS - Don't think this vulnerable equine has what it takes to be victorious this time out.
ELI ANA - You always figure that this equine has a shot to win, but she fails regularly. This filly hasn't had any recent accomplishments in short distance contests. Not easy to bet on her in this race.
Bet on #2 SILENT BRIDE to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
Woodbine - Race #2 - Post: 1:29pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $58,600 Class Rating: 98
#4 BIG BAZINGA (ML=2/1)
#6 MARITIME PULPIT (ML=6/1)
#1 JOHNNY BEAR (ML=15/1)
BIG BAZINGA - This horse brings in a lot of dough per race around the track. I believe he will boost that bankroll in today's race. Last race at Gulfstream, he broke from the far outside. I don't need an advanced degree like The Brain to tell me his inside post position today should help.
MARITIME PULPIT - Gelding looks like the lone speed here. He may turn the race into a procession. Look for this one to go all the way to the finish line at some pretty good odds right here in this race. Ran fourth in last race, but not more than 5 from the lead at the wire.
JOHNNY BEAR - This steed broke from the outside at Gulfstream last time out, racing 1 1/8 miles, but is getting a low post in this race, which should help his chances today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 DOWNEY GAP (ML=5/2),
#5 BANGKOK (ML=4/1),
#2 ROYAL WARRIOR (ML=9/2),
BANGKOK - Difficult to keep following this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse.
ROYAL WARRIOR - Tough to put any dough on this gelding on the top end. Likes to hit the board though. Tough for this closer horse to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone front speed is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - JOHNNY BEAR - I'm wagering on this gelding. He has the top TrackMaster Power Rating and big odds.
Play #6 MARITIME PULPIT to win if you can get odds of 9/2 or more
Box [1,4,6] Total Cost: $6
Woodbine - Race #3 - Post: 2:00pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $55,900 Class Rating: 81
#2 NINTH SYMPHONY (ML=2/1)
#6 CASTELAO (ML=15/1)
NINTH SYMPHONY - Contreras should have him moving strong on the turn. Horse didn't land in the top three in last race, but did beat half the field, and made up ground down the lane. A slight improvement and this horse should be right there at the end. Earnings per start is something that I think can be an extremely key factor. This thoroughbred is ranked the highest in this bunch.
CASTELAO - I figure that this shorter trip should help this colt. I really like that this animal shows a gate workout since the last race and is getting the 'hood' on today. Always a good angle to play.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DREAMAKER (ML=8/5),
#1A BATTLEOFBURLINGTON (ML=8/5),
#5 STREET TAIL (ML=4/1),
DREAMAKER - This colt probably won't be on the money at the wire.
BATTLEOFBURLINGTON - I don't have a good intuition about this mount in this race.
STREET TAIL - Trying to beat this one this time around at the value of 4/1.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - CASTELAO - This noble animal is going be trouble for the rest of the horses in this race. His finish of third at modest odds in first ever start places him well with these.
Play #2 NINTH SYMPHONY to win if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
2 with 6 with [1,4,5] Total Cost: $3
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
Woodbine - Race #4 - Post: 2:31pm - Allowance - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $47,500 Class Rating: 83
#5 RIVER MAID (ML=3/1)
#2 NATURAL BLONDE (ML=4/1)
#1 INTERNAL BOURBON (ML=5/2)
#4 HOT CROSS BUNS (ML=10/1)
RIVER MAID - I like the fact that this filly's last speed rating, 87, is tops in this bunch. Earnings per start (EPS) is something that I think can be a very valuable handicapping factor. This animal is ranked number one in this field. Lower weight assigned of -6. In my opinion, a movement of five is important, so this filly falls into this category. Look at this pattern of improvement. 63/81/87 are the last three Equibase speed figures.
NATURAL BLONDE - This horse coming off a sharp performance in the last thirty days is a contender in my opinion.
INTERNAL BOURBON - Good return on investment for this jock and trainer duo.
HOT CROSS BUNS - Can't help but like the 2nd time addition of Lasix by the trainer today. Pretty good indication Colbourne thinks she can win.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SISTER ROLLY (ML=6/1),
#3 OUR NAT'S (ML=8/1),
SISTER ROLLY - Any horse coming out of a route clash should show some speed to clash with the sprinters. Unlikely that the speed figure she recorded on September 17th will hold up in this race.
OUR NAT'S - Hard to take this questionable contender at these odds after the finish (sixth) in the last affair.
Bet on #4 HOT CROSS BUNS to win if we can get at least 9/1 odds
Woodbine - Race #5 - Post: 3:05pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,500 Class Rating: 78
#2 REFRESHINGMEMORIES (ML=7/5)
#4 SNIPPETS OF TIME (ML=8/1)
#1 THESIGNOFTHEANGEL (ML=8/5)
REFRESHINGMEMORIES - If this mare gets out of the gate cleanly, she'll be tough to catch. I think the shorter trip will help this mare stay the distance. Was in a $12,500 Claiming race at Woodbine in the last race. That race had a class figure of 84 and she is moving down in today's race. A certain serious competitor.
SNIPPETS OF TIME - Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figs (61-72-76) make this animal a dominant contender.
THESIGNOFTHEANGEL - Alderson is up for another contest today after riding aboard this animal for the first attempt on Apr 19th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. The improved speed figs over the last three races is strong. Tharrenos drops her in this race ready to win. The 79 recent race speed rating looks strong in the TrackMaster PPs.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1A GEISHA'S DANCE (ML=8/5),
#3 QUICKLIME (ML=6/1),
GEISHA'S DANCE - Hard to wager on a horse that lays up for a long time then doesn't end up on the board off the long breather.
QUICKLIME - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance races lately. Improbable to see her doing it in today's event either. Finished third in her most recent effort with a most unsatisfactory speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this bunch.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - REFRESHINGMEMORIES - I start with the class in the bunch then work my way down. This one's got the top earnings per start. No need to look further.
Bet on #4 SNIPPETS OF TIME to win if we can get at least 8/1 odds
2 with [1,4]
Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
Woodbine - Race #6 - Post: 3:37pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,900 Class Rating: 92
#2 BUONGIORNO JOHNNY (ML=8/1)
#6 ORO VERO (ML=2/1)
#5 TEVEZ (ML=5/2)
#4 SKYRISH (ML=3/1)
BUONGIORNO JOHNNY - Gelding looks like the lone speed here. He may turn the race into a procession. Have to like the way Mattine has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today.
ORO VERO - Multiple victories over the surface right here at Woodbine. Maybe, another trip to the winner's circle in this race. Stein and McKnight partnered with one another are a handicapper's friend.
TEVEZ - When Dasilva and Nixon team up on equines the return on investment has been fabulous at +152.
SKYRISH - The December 7th event at Woodbine was at a class level of (99). Dropping down the ladder based on class considerably, so he should be in a good place. Looks like this one really likes the distance. No reason to believe he cannot add another 'W' to the victory column in this field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DR. HARKNESS (ML=6/1),
DR. HARKNESS - Difficult to bet on any vulnerable equine in a short distance event if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last sixty days. This gelding is always in the money, but just doesn't finish on top. Difficult to bet on him on the top end.
Bet on #2 BUONGIORNO JOHNNY to win if you can get at least 4/1 odds
Woodbine - Race #7 - Post: 4:09pm - Allowance - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $47,500 Class Rating: 82
#2 TAKE BACK YA POILS (ML=4/1)
#7 SILENT AUCTION (ML=10/1)
#5 D FORTY FOUR (ML=3/1)
TAKE BACK YA POILS - I look for this horse to sit chilly off the pace and make a big move on the turn, cruising straight on to the winner's circle. This filly's last rating is good enough to win here, I'll play her back again this time. 64-78-82 are last 3 Equibase speed figures. Improving each time out is something she should do again right here.
SILENT AUCTION - Bahen and Armata perform well when they partner up. It's hard to beat a +113 return on investment for a rider and conditioner. I like to bet on this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a sharp effort within the last thirty days.
D FORTY FOUR - Already competed against today's M/L favorite on April 12th at Woodbine and finished ahead of that one. Have to believe she can do it again right here. Earnings per start is something that I feel can be a most important handicapping factor. This mount is ranked the highest in this field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 LETTER FLY (ML=5/2),
#4 CATCH SOME ZS (ML=6/1),
#3 RESERVE LOVE (ML=8/1),
LETTER FLY - Last performed on April 12th at Woodbine, finishing seventh. Not likely to perk up off of that effort in today's race. No picnic to back any entrant in a sprint affair if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last 60 days.
CATCH SOME ZS - Would have to get better off that fifth place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here. Garnered a run-of-the-mill speed rating in the last race in an Allowance race on Nov 14th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that rating.
RESERVE LOVE - Probably hasn't had enough experience to beat the veterans today. Can't wager on this less than sharp equine in today's sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint race lately. Garnered a mediocre speed figure last out in the South Ocean on November 15th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that rating.
Put your money on #2 TAKE BACK YA POILS on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
2 with [5,7]
Box [2,5,7] Total Cost: $6
Woodbine - Race #8 - Post: 4:41pm - Stakes - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $125,000 Class Rating: 105 Jacques Cartier S.
#2 BLACK HORNET (ML=7/2)
#5 BEAR NO JOKE (ML=6/1)
#10 PUNTROOSKIE (ML=12/1)
#3 CHOCTAW CHUCK (ML=20/1)
BLACK HORNET - Last workout was the second fastest of the day. Definitely on edge for a good one today. This gelding is very familiar with the winner's circle at Woodbine. I expect a repeat visit in this race.
BEAR NO JOKE - The recent bullet 100.4 work should put this gelding on track for today's race. This gelding's last race was back on Nov 23rd but I do believe he can run a good one coming off a vacation. Racing over a familiar track, where he has won multiple times before, I have to put this animal at the top of my list of choice plays.
PUNTROOSKIE - Gonzalez has this gelding signed up for the right race.
CHOCTAW CHUCK - Traditional angle - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. A live horse today. Parker is reunited today with this horse after enjoying some pretty nice success riding in the past. When this jockey and handler combine forces you have to take a look. Parker and Rice have been wonderful together. This gelding ran a real solid race back on Mar 14th but bounced when coming back off that effort. Today should be different; I expect a return to form.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CALGARY CAT (ML=2/1),
#7 PABLO DEL MONTE (ML=9/2),
CALGARY CAT - Can't play this mount in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint event recently.
PABLO DEL MONTE - Pace is so critical, and this early speedball is going to have a speed duel on his hands. When scrutinizing today's class rating, he will have to register a much better speed figure than in the last race to vie in this dirt sprint.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - CHOCTAW CHUCK - My data says you can ignore the last race at Keeneland. Contested on the soft turf, this gelding obviously didn't take to the going.
Play #5 BEAR NO JOKE to win if you can get odds of 6/1 or more
Woodbine - Race #9 - Post: 5:13pm - Optional Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $62,300 Class Rating: 95
#1 ON THE BACKSTREETS (ML=5/2)
#3 BLACK BIRD ROCK (ML=9/5)
#2 ZAZINGA (ML=10/1)
ON THE BACKSTREETS - When Jimenez and Ward unite on horses the winning pct has been good at 31. This filly seems to run pretty good after a vacation. Took a big class drop last out, and I think she may have needed it. Ward enters her at a similar class today. I'd expect an improved performance.
BLACK BIRD ROCK - Multiple wins in this horse's life, all at Woodbine. Could add another win in this race.
ZAZINGA - If this filly gets out of the gate cleanly, she'll be tough to catch. Every now and then I take some time off, when I come back to the track I feel refreshed. I think it's the same with this filly as she always seems to run well after a vacation.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BONITA LUNA (ML=7/2),
#5 BEAR'S GEM (ML=6/1),
#4 COPPER KITTEN (ML=8/1),
BONITA LUNA - In any event of 6 1/2 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been on the board in short distance races of late. Should take this one off your contenders list with the lack of early speed in that last route event.
BEAR'S GEM - I find it hard to play any horse in a short distance race at 6/1 when she hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last couple of months. Not probable that this horse can be victorious in this sprint after showcasing no speed in that last route affair.
COPPER KITTEN - In any event of 6 1/2 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been looking good in short distance affairs recently. The long layoff will probably mean trouble for this steed. This steed ran a substandard speed rating last race out. She shouldn't improve and will probably lose today running that rating.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ZAZINGA - Better than looked last race out. Expect a nice effort this time around.
#2 ZAZINGA is going to be the play if we are getting 5/1 or better
Box [1,2] Box [2,3]
Box [1,2,3] Total Cost: $6
Woodbine - Race #10 - Post: 5:45pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,500 Class Rating: 79
#1A SANDYS HURRICANE (ML=3/1)
#3 ITS THE RUSH (ML=7/2)
#8 LUCKY MELISSA (ML=6/1)
SANDYS HURRICANE - Ran in the last race against a higher rated class of horses at Tampa Bay. The move down the ladder based on class rating points should suit her well. Don't often see a beneficial return on investment like +41. This jock/handler tandem has done well together over the last twelve months. Johnson is reunited today with this horse after enjoying some pretty nice success riding in the past.
ITS THE RUSH - Was in a $10,000 Claiming race at Woodbine last time around the track. That race had a class number of 84 and she is moving down in this event. A certain win candidate. Mare's win percentage is better than 50 percent in first and second starts off a layoff. This animal absolutely loves this surface. All her trips to the winner's circle have been here at Woodbine.
LUCKY MELISSA - Dropping in class rating points from her November 15th race at Woodbine. Based on that data, I will give this horse the edge. I just may give this one a shot. Should rebound off last race where she did run out of the money, but was within five lengths at the finish line. This horse has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 71 to 77 to 79 right in a row.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 TWO BREWS TO GO (ML=2/1),
#1 REEL GOOD MOVIE (ML=3/1),
#7 BLUE WATERS (ML=8/1),
TWO BREWS TO GO - 2/1 is not worth the risk for any horse in a sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint race recently.
REEL GOOD MOVIE - Ran a great fig last time out, but the try will probably take too much out of her.
BLUE WATERS - This mare hasn't had any recent good results in short distance affairs. Tough to bet on her in this contest. This animal didn't show any front speed in the last race. Now she is trying a sprint. Tough chance at the shorter distance.
Put your money on #1 Entry on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
1 with [3,8]
Box [1,3,8] Total Cost: $6
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.
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