Guide to using these selections and analysis: The horses listed for each race are those I think have the highest probability to win. At times, next to each name are the ‘Minimum betting odds’ at which I will consider a win bet, starting with the top horse. If a horse is listed but the odds are below the minimum it can still be used in the exacta and other wagers. Please note the second best contender to win isn't necessarily the best horse to run second so even though horses are ranked in order that doesn't mean they will (or won't) finish in that order. When I feel an exacta is warranted I specifically say so.

Race #1

#1 Dialherup - Minimum betting odds 9 to 5

#2 Lady With a Cause - Minimum betting odds 2 to 1

About the race: This is a maiden (non-winners) race for fillies and it is also a claiming race which means any of the six horses can be "claimed" (purchased) as well.

Note: The distance of this race is 1 1/16 miles & at Keeneland that’s exactly once around because of the circumference of the track. It starts and ENDS at the first of two finish lines, one-sixteenth of a mile closer to the far turn than races at all other distances. You will see a STOP SIGN raised for these races at the point the race ends, to remind fans, and jockeys.

Dialherup debuted in a sprint (under a mile) in February and finished second then although third in her only other race she ran better, and faster. That was at this distance and she should improve once again and be tough to beat. Lady With a Cause has raced five times, finishing second in her last three, all routes (a mile or more) like this one. Her most recent effort was her best yet when she was beaten inches on the wire and she is the biggest threat to Dialherup winning.

Race #2

#8 American Rascal - Minimum betting odds 3 to 2

#4 Frosty the Giant - Minimum betting odds 9 to 2

#2 Family Factor - Minimum betting odds 9 to 2

#5 Kore Kinetic - Minimum betting odds 9 to 2

About the race: This is a maiden (non-winners) race for two year old male horses, all starting in a race for the first time. You can think of two year olds as 12 to 15 year olds, some much more physically and mentally superior to others based on their age (keeping in mind horses are fully mature by the time they are five years old). There are high expectations for most if not all of these horses but for now they’re just starting out.

Two things to keep in mind when assessing the chances of horses in these types of races when they have no history are 1) Even with morning training drills they may not have learned to pass other horses and 2) With no history to go on we shift our focus to their trainer’s success in these situations, the horse’s workouts, and their pedigree.

After saying all that, the most likely winner should be American Rascal based on his trainer’s TREMENDOUS success in these types of races. Wesley Ward (a former jockey) has won with an astronomically high (for racing) 40% of his first time starters in these types of races going back five full years. He’s won all three of these types of races so far in April at Keeneland as well, two with jockey Rosario in the saddle as aboard this colt, who has been trained to break out fast and keep going.

There are a few others who have potential to run well, starting with Frosty the Giant, from the barn of another high percentage trainer in Anthony Farrior, who rarely starts a horse in Kentucky. Farrior wins about 30% of his races, mostly I West Virginia and Maryland, so the fact he ships this horse to Kentucky from Maryland (where there are these types of race as well) speaks a lot about his confidence. Better still, Frosty the Giant gets the services of North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., who has never ridden for this trainer. Farrior has won 10 of 43 of these kinds of races the past couple of years and the colt has been putting in morning workouts from the gate so could be well prepared.

Family Factor may be worth a few dollars of betting money as he could be a long shot, but he is bred to win early as THREE of his siblings (all from the same dam (mother) ran first or second in their career debuts. The trainer wins his share and the owner/breeders is a veteran horseman who used to be a trainer and is very sharp at getting his horses ready to race.

Kore Kinetic is also bred to be precocious and run well early as both of his dam’s foals ran well first out. Trainer Mendez wins with a good share in these types of races and the colt’s morning drills suggest he has a lot of speed.

Race #3

#8 Camilo - Minimum betting odds 2 to 1

#5 Write Off Jerry - Minimum betting odds 5 to 2

#7 Highest Road - Minimum betting odds 5 to 1

About the race: This is also a "maiden" race, for horses all trying to earn their first win. However, it’s quite different from the last race because these are three year olds and this race will be run at one mile on turf. When racing around two turns often experience matters more than pedigree so for the most part horses which have run get preference, BUT there are exceptions as you’ll read below.

Camilo has run just once, in a similar two-turn turf race. That’s a pretty difficult question to ask as most horses need the experience of a prep race at a shorter distance first but he ran pretty well as he was second from the start and for the first mile before tiring to fifth. Likely to improve by leaps and bounds off the experience, and particularly as his two siblings from the same dam earned their first wins in turf routes in their second, and third, starts, he may be tough to beat here.

Write Off Jerry has run three times, once in a sprint and twice since in routes. He finished third in both of the longer races and continues to improve with racing, his improvement likely hastened by a positive jockey change to Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Highest Road may be an exception to the rule first time starters in turf routes need a race because he’s an Irish Bred horse by one of the best sires (and race horses) of grass horses in the last 50 years, Frankel, who passed away two years ago. VERY FEW sons or daughters of Frankel race in North America but there are many top runners around the world possessing his genes and among eight first time starters in turf routes in North America, three have won. Trainer McPeek is also adept at getting horses to run well first time out, sometimes a surprise to bettors such as a 20/1 winner last year.

Race #4

#9 Jeeper - Minimum betting odds 2 to 1

#7 Hoku - Minimum betting odds 2 to 1

#8 Sailor's Return - Minimum betting odds 3 to 1

Exacta: Box 7, 8, 9 (The exacta is a bet where we win if our selections finish 1st and 2nd and in this case we win if any 2 of the 3 finish 1st & 2nd in any order, regardless of where the other horse finishes. The minimum bet is $1 and the cost is $6 because there are six different combinations of 1st and 2nd among the three horses).

About the race: This is a "claiming" race out of which any of the horses can be purchased (claimed) for $30,000. Claiming races are bread-and-butter races at most tracks and allow for a secondary market (other than auctions) for buying and selling horses. Owners take control of the claimed horse after the race with the prospect of winning purse money in the future. This race is also restricted to horses with only one win in their career to date.

Jeeper has never run in a claiming race previously so he is running against lesser competition than he’s faced to date. He won a route race in February three races ago and if he repeats that effort he should win. Hoku finished second in a route race in his most recent start on March 26, his first on dirt following three races on turf. Now that he’s demonstrated he likes the surface, his trainer is giving him another shot and he just needs slight improvement off his last effort to be very competitive here. Sailor’s Return is a possible longshot, opening at 15 to 1 odds, one I would not hesitate to bet to win at the least, The two best races of his career have come in his two most recent starts, a runner-up effort on 2/20 followed by a win on 3/22, and his trainer, who doesn’t start many horses, just won a race at Keeneland last week.

Race #5

#5 Hideki - Minimum betting odds 2 to 1

#15 Only Kidding - Minimum betting odds 3 to 1

#16 Georgees Spirit - Minimum betting odds 3 to 1

This is on the grass but at the short distance of five and one-half furlongs, a little over five-eighths of a mile. This is a first level "allowance" race mostly for this level of horses which have won a maiden race but horses which have won claiming races are eligible as well. Most of these horses have one to three wins and many losses and the key in handicapping is to try to find races from their past which are representative of today’s conditions.

Hideki has been very consistent in her career even if not winning that many races, having amassed a record of 2-5-1 in 11 starts. All were on the all-weather surface which is very similar to turf and her dam’s only other foal to try grass won on it. She gets the services of top jockey Luis Saez and won one before last, but her most recent race when second was even better as she was bumped very hard on the turn and still showed a lot of ability to hold second clearly over the next horse.

Only Kidding and Georgees Spirit are both "also-eligible" which means they run only if one or more of the 12 horse in the main body of the race should scratch. Their outside posts are not disadvantageous in this type of race and both have run well in their few previous turf sprints starts.

Race #6

#4 Devil's Tower - Minimum betting odds 1 to 1 (even money)

#2 Summer Splash - Minimum betting odds 4 to 1

#1 Blue Kentucky - Minimum betting odds 4 to 1

Exacta: 4 over 1, 2

Exacta: Box 1, 2, 4

The first bet above is one designed for us to win if #4 finishes first and then if #1 or #2 finishes second. It has a cost of $2 at the $1 minimum. The second is an exacta box where we win if any 2 of the 3 finish 1st and 2nd in any order. The reason for playing both is because Devil’s Tower is highly probable to win so we would want to have those combinations twice.

Devil’s Tower loves to win races, as evidenced by a 10 for 20 record on dirt. She is going for her fourth win in a row and is simply faster than the rest. However, no horse is a sure thing so we might consider Summer Splash and Blue Kentucky with slight chances to succeed as well. Summer Splash has won six of 13 including her last two while Blue Kentucky won three in a row from October of last year (at Keeneland) through January 1 then ran okay but did not win.

Race #7

#9 El Kabong - Minimum betting odds 3 to 1

#10 Fenwick Station - Minimum betting odds 3 to 1

#2 Kupuna - Minimum betting odds 3 to 1

This is a "third level allowance" race, abbreviated NW3X in racing information, which means "non-winners three times of a certain amount of money, or non-winners three times except for maiden or claiming races." These are VERY good horses, just below stakes level, and some may have run in stakes as well. Most have earned hundreds of thousands of dollars to date.

El Kabong gets slight preference because his likely high odds make up for the risk and those odds are higher than they should be in my opinion considering he was five to one odds when winning at the one lower NW2X condition on grass last May at Churchill Downs. Right before that, about one year to the day, he won on the grass at Keeneland. That race came on the heels of a seven month layoff and he returns from a layoff (albeit shorter) today and gets the SAME jockey (Corie Lanerie) who as aboard for both of his last two wins.

Fenwick Station also sports a win on the Keeneland grass, and that also came nearly a year ago to the day. That was at the one lower allowance level so he fits like a "T" and he was off after that race for 11 months, returning on March 24 in a race he had to need and one his trainer wanted to get under his belt, regardless if it was on dirt, which is NOT the surface where he has done his best running. Similar to El Kabong, Fenwick Station gets a jockey change to jockey who last rode him to win, Luis Saez, so the pattern suggests an "A" race good enough to win.

Kupuna has a good inside post position and the ability to either get the early lead or relax in the top three through the opening parts of the race. He won two races in a row in December and January and wasn’t disgraced at all when second and barely beaten last month at this allowance level. He’s never run on dirt but is bred to do well and appears ready to transfer his competitive dirt form to the grass here.

Race #8

#1 Vittorio - Minimum betting odds 2 to 1

#8 Curbstone - Minimum betting odds 2 to 1

Exacta: Box 1, 8

Exacta: 1, 8 over 1, 5, 6, 7, 8

#5 is Spa City, #6 is Cooke Creek, #7 is Creative Minister
The total cost for both bets at the $1 minimum is $10. We win the first if 1 and 8 finish 1st & 2nd in any order and we win the second bet if 1 or 8 wins then if any of the other four finish second. If 1 & 8 finish 1st & 2nd we win both bets.

Vittorio took 10 months off between April of last year and this past February and in spite of the lengthy time off ran very well when second. He was expected to improve so much his top trainer Bill Mott entered him in a stakes race and although he finished fourth it was a big effort. He moves back down in class but not suspiciously so and a repeat of either of his two most recent efforts is good enough to win.

That being said, if Curbstone runs as he has since December he can win, and likely at higher odds. Shortly after changing trainers in November and moving from turf to dirt, he started running exceptional races, winning by six lengths, then by 12 lengths both at the mile and one-eighth distance of today’s race. Running a mile and one-quarter may have been a bit too far but he still ran second in that race near the end of February, then returning to this nine furlong trip he won easily once again, with gas left in the tank. Considering Vittorio has NEVER run this distance and Curbstone has won the last three times he has run at this distance, I wouldn’t hesitate betting Curbstone if the odds are right.

Race #9

#6 Royal Sandrin - Minimum betting odds 5 to 2

#9 Balthazar - Minimum betting odds 5 to 2

#8 Just So - Minimum betting odds 5 to 2

#7 Sherlock's Jewel - Minimum betting odds 6 to 1

#5 St. Neots - Minimum betting odds 6 to 1

This is an identical type of race to race three, a mile on grass for three year old male maidens. It is pretty wide open but I’ll start with Royal Sandrin as the top contender as he just missed by a neck in his most recent race on March 10. He had run third in both previous starts and that was by far his best. Today he gets a BIG jockey change to Flavien Prat and the transition from the all-weather to turf should help the colt continue his pattern of improvement. Balthazar also finished second in his most recent race. That was his first route after two sprints and he ships in from California as well as gets a top jockey in John Velazquez so could easily be in the thick of the action at the finish. Just So comes from the barn of one of the top trainers in North America, Chad Brown, already with four winners at the meeting. This colt debuted in February on an all-weather surface around two turns and showed he understands what his task is as he rallied from fifth to lead late in the race, before settling for second. He’s bound to improve physically and mentally off the experience. Sherlock’s Jewel also led late in the race in his most recent start before settling for second and the only difference between his last race and that of Just So is that his race was seen months ago. However, trainer McGaughey wins about 30% of the time with horses coming back from six months or more and the colt gets top jockey Saez so can run a lot better than his odds might suggest he will. St. Neots is yet another with a recent runner-up effort, on turf, last month. That followed seven months off so we can expect even better second off the layoff.